Widge
@thirdgenwidget
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"Prior to COVID, the actual survey results and the predicted survey results using economic inputs were virtually identical. But now we have seen a monumental divergence... that has something to do with stock prices being better, but a lot of people don’t own many if any stocks."
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I might suggest that the people who think we can quickly put massive amounts of electricity on line to satisfy data centers are of the same delusion as those who thought we had enough raw materials and electricity to produce and power EVs for everyone.
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Fed guy Miran is on TV... blaming interest rates for the U3 UE rate creeping up. But I don't think that's the reason. For many years, we watched the U3 remain low as Labor Participation plunged. Now, we're seeing that Labor Participation creep up, and the U3 rate with it.
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This was the story in the first half of the year, IMO... but something has changed in recent months. What could it be? Could it be the new work requirements tied to benefits are tipping people back into the (legal) labor force??? and if so, please explain why that's a negative.
@barryknapp I'm interested in how the spread between the Household Survey and Weekly Initial Claims plays out. In the latest BLS report, we saw both the Labor Force and those employed shrink, but not seeing that in the Initial Claims data...that sounds like Gig & Under the table exodus.
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I haven't discounted the changing nature of Initial Claims and have repeatedly written about it over the course of the past decade... but totally dismissing them due to their resiliency and because they do not support your views of the labor market seems like a bad way to go.
Some important context to this... 15 years ago, 400k claims was a "flat" labor market. That has surely been skewed by the emergence of "gig" employment where the most marginal of employees are never put on the payroll.
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Since the GFC, commentators and market skeptics have rightly reflected on the diminishing Domestic Labor Force Participation as the cause for falling Unemployment and called BS. Now, they want to cite the resulting rising UE rate due to MORE domestic participation as a negative?
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There seems to be a concerted effort by some to not look at the HARD data that doesn't align with the narrative... Initial Claims are the real data... especially when you look at the NSA numbers...
U3 unemployment increases to 4.6% U6 unemployment rate hits 8.7% Total unemployed Americans (U3) hits 7.831 million All around very negative data heading into 2026, aligning with our labor data from the year (and not garbage jobless claims) #MacroEdge
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@TaoistTrader It's not allowing me to make a clip out of this, this morning... but here is the start time for when Jim Bianco, who I feel has the story right, discusses the labor market for a few minutes... For some reason(ha), don't hear this truth from others. https://t.co/BLlqOVPUcA
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The market pundits, by and large, just want cheap money to boost asset prices... They'll spin every story and indicator as a tale of a weak economy in order give a story about needing lower rates in order to remain bullish on asset prices.
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October Retail Sales: 3.5% Y/Y growth still beating CPI despite the shutdown...
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The labor force is growing via participation... the UE rate is up because of growing labor force participation. We know that's not from imported workers. This is a domestic story and it's a decent report precisely BECAUSE of the higher UE Rate.
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The Initial Unemployment Claims are "useless" when measuring the economy? Is that the story we're using to lobby for more easy money, @cvpayne?
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This article is from August 2022. The needless damage done to the US automotive industry and consumers has been epic and will have long lasting impacts, as evidenced by Ford's massive write down, yesterday. https://t.co/gFUjWDBk2E
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The Maui County Council just voted to pass Bill 9 a few minutes ago. Now the bill goes to Maui Mayor Richard Bissen for his signature. Bill 9 will gradually reduce the number of STRs or short-term vacation rentals from 13,000 to a little over 8,000 with the goal of helping to
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Micah Parsons season is OVER. Does that mean so is the #Packers season? “They still have the talent…” 👀 Plus, what’s it like when one of your best players goes down with a serious injury? @kuhnj30 explained to @RamieIsTweeting. 📻 Podcast: https://t.co/JRpZQZzWcu
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Waiting for the new issue of Beckett in the mail was a monthly event once the 20th of the month arrived... There's a part of me that wishes it never was a thing, though. Thankfully I was out of collecting before the grading industry took over, but it doesn't look fun, anymore.
Including Beckett, PSA's parent company will now own 79% market share in the card grading market. That stat and more from @BenMBurrows and me. https://t.co/UgejzJfMyH
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Ford pushed hard on it's monstrosity of the Lightning... an incredibly environmentally inefficient and counterproductive model... in order to extract Government "green" credits... so it could sell more high margin ICE F150s to wealthy buyers. This is your government, in action.
There were mass produced engines in vehicles that got 30+MPG a full 40 years ago. The engines got more advanced and more efficient, since. What was done with that efficiency? Larger, faster, more gadgets... net loss of MPG. EVs will be no different.
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