Michael Taylor
@Mike_Taylor1972
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PM of $PINK Shares for the Cure. Healthcare Hedgefund Manager for past 20 yrs. Scientist, Virologist, Humanitarian, Troglodyte w/a keyboard.
New York, NY
Joined May 2009
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BOOM! Am so happy we can make this AMAZING ETF available to all. $PINK.
#DoWellDoGood
We are thrilled to introduce our latest ETF: $PINK!
Simplify Health Care ETF - Shares for the Cure - is the first-ever ETF committed to donating all proceeds to the Susan G. Komen breast cancer organization.
Learn more here:
@Susangkomen
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Real Deal Right Here Folks.
@pulte
is showing everyone how charity should work - one family at a time.
Okay. I sent you $1,000. Pls go find people who legit were not sent a box. Search my name and Twitter from a few hours ago and send them $40 each pls.
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The next 2 weeks will probably be near impossible to get right on a daily basis.
The ONE chart I use to re-ground myself.
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Bull Trap: I think we might be in the biggest since 2000.
The underlying factors:
-TGA refill
-SPR drain
-Student loans
-jobless ramp
-interest rate/deposit drain
-CRE crisis
-Ongoing QT
…are very very difficult to reverse without a crisis.
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GLOBAL MARGIN-CALL
$AAPL signals a “whoops” on demand.
I have never seen anything like this on a Global scale in 22 yrs in the chair.
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We are seeing HF taking their shorts off.
and liquidating.
This is how a floor gets removed on mkts.
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$BBBY crash will be the spark that breaks the mkt trend.
- A gigantic chase on stocks that are going bkpt while headed into accelerating QT is the most ludicrous trade I have seen in 22 years.
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Beware.
The volume is not right.
Not for this type of move.
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$AAPL
Peaked margins and Rev growth.
Means Peak multiple. 25x fw PE.
Bear mkts are (generous) 17x PE on trough EPS.
The most important stock in the universe has a problem.
It is also THE stock that has held up the entire mkt.
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$ARKK liquidating only the most liquid names continues, leaving the book meaningfully unbalanced, concentrated in smallcaps - a very irresponsible and dangerous place to be.
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Labor practice at $AAPL
(and all of China).
#MSM
crickets - never bite the hand that feeds you.
20 buses of armed police were transferred from Luoyang city to crackdown on
#Foxconn
workers after they tried to break out of the
#iPhone
City in
#Zhengzhou
#CCPChina
. See my previous tweets for more.
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As I keep going over the UK housing market:
Prediction: BoE will have to issue a TARP for the entire UK mortgage market and re-issue new mortgages that are half the going rate - to hold on their balance sheet.
I know - it sounds outlandish - but I cannot find an alt conclusion.
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Take note.
A lot of companies and people are going to go bankrupt in the next 6-9 months
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There is no home-building bubble.
No way, no how, not a chance.
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For most of the HF guys scratching their heads:
This is the last week of the FY for many mutual funds.
Recall that half of managers MUST be in the bottom half of performance: Hence an all-out push (on crap volume) into defensives for the final mark.
This ends next week.
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I cannot stress enough, IMHO this is the worst setup for stocks in 20 yrs.
Of the dozens of metrics (that are bad) this one stands out:
@Hedgeye
can walk u thru “Quad 4”.
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Sam is out levering up buying counterparties to his debts/credits, preventing a Discovery thru Bkpcy - and subsequent margin-call.
The probability of this ending badly is extremely high.
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If CPI comes in the least bit hot next week Tues (see housing and auto) we have a CTA setup for ~200b to sell.
In an ungodly thin tape.
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What I am trying to say here: Regional Banks have a serious pile of crap in their diaper, CRE. And HighYield has been a way to off-load (though nothing is actually selling). HY actually beginning to roll is THE SIGN that the next 3 years of CRE refi's are f-d. It means that…
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Now just imagine the SPR dumping oil into energy mkts ends and reverses - Starting in OCT.
This has been a WH effort to suppress (short term) inflation numbers, only to make it higher just after NOV election.
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Today I am 50!
I am reminded with the axiom I bestowed upon my children: “The hardest part about being Gentle IS Being Gentle”
It is easy to be mean, a bully and insensitive. It is Hard to do Well AND do Good.
The next 50 will be better than the first.
Thank you all!!
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This is a glimpse of what is going on all over the country in CMBS and Commercial Real Estate.
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About 44% of Federal debt (read >$15TRN) is SUB 2yrs duration.
Along with about $2Trn+ of CRE debt (much of that is currently in negative NPV projects)
***IMHO very likely to witness a return to QE and YCC before YE2025.
- I do not see a probable mathematical alternative.
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I have never seen in my life so many publicly traded Stocks that are (likely) going to Dr Zero in 23.
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"Bitcoin isn’t so much a bubble as “the last functioning fire alarm” warning us of some very big geopolitical changes ahead.”
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I need you all to understand the setup:
Underinvestment in Energy - now parabolic
Aftermath of MMT - peak margins
Housing at all-time high $/GDP
Debt has not cratered yet
Retail is all-in
Crypto is an "investment" for 100s of millions (a scam)
EPIC food crisis
QT - certain
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IMHO we are on the cusp of an epic collapse in operating margins for many industries.
Starting now.
My colleagues and I have been discussing for the past 6-7 months.
Input costs will remain high though for some time.
Batten down.
@hedgeye
is watching this too.
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The “covid is going away” trade has started. Buckle up.
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The setup into 2022 is the worst i have seen in 20 years in the chair. Am materially bearish consumer and tech stocks vs bullish energy and med-tech.
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BoJ. This is a big, big deal.
First time I have read in clear words.
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ON PHONE with Mike Green
@profplum99
right now.
"Do u think you're long enough US10Y"
ME: "i am long $110mn notionally"
Green: "u think that's enough?"
BEST CONVERSATION OF THE YEAR
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$QQQ: the probability of a Fail in 3-4 days is extremely high IMHO.
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In a first: An area of FL in which I have been looking for >>2 yrs, PRICE DROPS.
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$TSLA Chinese sales in May -50%. I can’t emphasize enough what this + ending EV credits does to this model.
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@dylangrice
Take a look at the bal shts of Yen and Euro and then consider the reliability of contract law in Russia and China. Then think “which Currency is the most reliable?”
Death of the USD is total nonsense. It is the ONLY currency.
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@ed_hawkins
As a data guy, how is every anomaly “negative” for ~50 years?
Negative to what. And over what timeframe?
Wouldn’t this mean we had global-cooling for >50 years in the past?
(It’s very easy to be fooled w numbers).
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8am on the PATH train to WTC downtown NYC. RUSH HOUR.
…really.
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Material redemptions have not started yet. The new generation of investors (past 2 years) are unaware of what protracted economic downturns look like.
- I expect material redemptions to begin.
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We just saw a biggie quant unwind. - on the phone w the gang talking about it tonight.
We will begin to move topics like this to a talk-show format.
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Beyond Nailed IT.
Must watch.
I know CNN & MSNBC never aired this, so I figured I would. Spot on, don't you think?
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The investigative process is simple: 5 years of hand written lab notebooks, meeting minutes and all purchase orders. Extremely difficult (impossible) to fake and reveals all experimental history. ANYTHING SHORT OF THIS IS A COVER-UP. via
@WSJOpinion
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In the past 2 yrs more retail trading accts have opened than the past 20 years combined, a side effect of
#MMT
- mass speculation.
Millions of new inexperienced options traders unaware of risk.
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Have the nastiest covid. Am glad i got one many generations old.
7-8 days of fever followed by
7-8 days of hacking
And wtf w my gewey eyes?
Had a week of hallucinations that
#CCP
spies were trying to kill me in my bedroom
Will be better soon!
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#CCP19
Vaccines: after seeing data from $MRNA and $BNTX (similar) vaccine solution, we know 3 things:
1. it might last 6 months
2. tox inc. 40-60% fever is "normal"
3. Tcells are not much activated - no duration.
Public thinks Vaccines are a solution - these are not that.
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And here we go:
As we talked about on
@Hedgeye
and here on TwitterSpaces. (For the past 3 weeks)
This is likely just the beginning to liquidity access in PE.
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$HYG and Leveraged Loans: Time to watch like a hawk.
We are just about done with the Bear Mkt Rally.
@Hedgeye
As in days.
Nobody will sell until it starts selling.
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IMHO Real mkt bottoms are made after everything breaks.
We are not there.
@KeithMcCullough
@profplum99
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Honestly, bear mkt rallies are one of my favorite things.
The unexpected, the incredible, in real time.
I tend to be flat the first couple days and then make good over the next 7 days.
All setting up for the crescendo.
Because people gotta chase. It’s what they do.
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Roxy settled in for a long winter’s nap. She is almost 3 months old. And fitting in like a champ, usually between 2 pillows.
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They have turned on him.
Expect the narrative to accelerate.
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The blind rotations (at this extreme) remind me greatly of what we saw in 2001 and 2008.
Recall oil went to $140BBL in the Summer of 08, right into the biggest eco collapse in a generation.
I am seeing a whiff of that right now in many spaces.
I will not cover my $NFLX
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Italy IMHO is the most likely to exit the EU stage left.
A 2023-24 event that nobody has on their radar.
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Recently, I underwent a battery of mental exams to articulate my process. My employer was curious on how my performance was different (long lasting) vs most PMs. One surprising analysis was I do not believe 96% of what I read. They found it astonishing. I thought it would be 100%
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Oct 1 is my Grandmother’s birthday. Growing up, she was the closest thing I had to a Mother as I lost my Mom at 9yrs old. Gram passed in June at 100 yrs old. May we all have such a good run.
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$GILD leaked CCP19 data from Stat (a very rare event) is a big deal by the read of it. Mgmt should have fuller data on their table tonight. Could turn CCP19 from 2:100 deaths to 1:1000.
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While for the moment Stonks dont seem to care.
This is what Bull-traps are made of.
Blackstone BREIT Redemption Requests Surge To $4.5 Billion, Only $666 Million Granted | ZeroHedge
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The smartest of them all sold it to you.
Some of the smartest, brightest people I've ever met invest in $TSLA.
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IMHO we are about to see a large ramp in credit card utilization - and the beginning of a horror show.
Discover (below): the magnitude of utilization is flat out unintelligible.
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@CynthiaNixon
It is an outrage that a Store, a shop owner, a family business has to lock up the merchandise to prevent theft. At some point, people might have to lock their cars, or their homes, or their bicycle. There is nothing worse. THE HUMANITY!!!
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Thinking about getting a plane.
Will this damn recession get going. This guy needs a turboprop on the cheap!!
(And $4m loan at 2.4%).
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TODAY a 17 year old kid at the track telling me how he has crushed it in “staking coins” at a 6% weekly compounding interest.
Me: “you know that’s a ponzi scheme”
Him: “what’s ponzi scheme”
This IS EXACTLY what tops look like.
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Do not think for a second that this WH is above suppressing the price of oil for political purposes right into 2024 elections.
Fully expecting a ZERO SPR for Nov 2024.
And terror on the other side.
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IT IS HAPPENING.
MAX T = INDY 2023!!!
Max Taylor Joins the VRD Racing USF Juniors Program for 2023
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$QQQ
We have broken the 1000-day Moving Average
On close - on Quad Witching.
Unchartered broken-chart territory NOW.
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The Fed’s real job is to make the Treasury look solvent.
Don’t ever never ever never forget that:
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Best weekend ever.
I do not think “Crypto” will be the sponsor. Ever again.
Go big b/c every single event in life is a one-time-only.
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Wut? Grocery chains have single digit net margins. All of them.
What happens when only a handful of giant grocery store chains like
@Kroger
dominate an industry? They can force high food prices onto Americans while raking in record profits. We need to strengthen our antitrust laws to break up giant corporations and lower prices.
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Been talking all week w IMHO the smartest people in macro.
This
#Troglodyte
believes there is many more shoes to drop before we find a bottom.
Will be on
@Hedgeye
soon to elucidate.
Stay Tuned.
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$ROCH (PureCycle Tech) and $REKR (Rekor Systems) are the big ideas. (IMHO) 5-10x+ return.
Learn about them. I will be in both for a very very long time.
$SAVE vs. $ZM still has >100% upside.
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Mar 17 1pm on
@Hedgeye
will discuss how to trade the Recovery, what does inflation mean, and a new top idea for 2021-2023 - I believe it is at least a 5x return, a name that you never heard of, but everyone will know by YE.
SEE YOU THEN
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The problem i am seeing with “stocks are up we are in a bull market”
I am hedging 150% of my book 2% lower for 1.5% 1.5 months out.
Which means I WIN either way.
It also means assets/ risk is terribly MISPRICED.
These circumstances are RARE and usually VERY profitable.
@Mike_Taylor1972
it's clearly not a trap at this point. it's a bull market. it's definitely going to turn around at some point but c'mon
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Glad to get to walk you all thru the play by play of the first really big HF unwind market. $GME squeeze is small compared to what is going on under the hood today. Couple TMT PMs have reached out to me to say "worst day of their year" today - and NO events.
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That Apple $AAPL has dropped Parler from their app store (just now) means the Taylor family will also be dropping all of their $APPL products.
@therealmiketaylor
on Parler.
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Today was/is the day I started buying puts on Momentum names - the degree vs the volume vs the put/call is what set me off. (wanted to share). I've generally gotten these setups right (to a small degree). But making money is more important than being right.
@Hedgeye
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UK: meltdown: this is what i was talking about on
@hedgeye
2 weeks ago - the unknown shoes to drop.
WE now know (FT this afternoon) that most UK pension funds are essentially loaded with unhedged carry trades.
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It is SO very, very rare for Stocks AND Bonds to sell-off.
it is also very, very bad.
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Capitulation in shorts.
What happens right after that?
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At the printing-press X-roads
Fed has 2 choices:
1 Crash the economy to preserve a natural buyer of UST.
2 Cave to the WH (DC) and use the printing press to YCC (aka Japan).
If chose the latter, the US will lose the financing of our military and with it the $USD.
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This Twitter Acct recently passed 40k followers.
I will do my best to aid you through sunny and stormy weather.
Remember: being “right” is NOT making money.
Thank you all
@hedgeye
@JulianMI2
@profplum99
@SimplifyETFs
#PINK
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As I watch the aggression of what is happening in stocks - the neg-momentum move:
I think a major quant book is blowing up based on these moves.
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Tomorrow sets up for a pretty large negative momentum squeeze - I will begin to fade that b/c the vaccine data is frankly, not good. Importantly, we discussed this setup on
@hedgeye
on JUL7, last week. Mo-Factor is just about the most exaggerated I have seen in my career.
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Best clip ever. FTX
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Listening to a Twitter Space on DeFI
There are thousands on here.
We are nowhere near a bottom IMHO.
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JUNK debt breaks to low. - we are in majorly distressed territory(2008, 2020) - while we STILL have epic valuations in many many Tech names:
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$QQQ is pricing in a ~4% move btw now and Wed next week.
Usually the market-makers win.
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I have never seen a clearer path to a commodity problem. If demand is inelastic and the Biden Administration cuts off new supply in Energy, a crisis WILL happen.
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M2 money supply:
just take a look since 2000
What could possibly go wrong now that it's YY down - try to find a moment ON RECORD that M2 was negative?
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