3Fourteen Research
@3F_Research
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The next generation of investment research.
Joined September 2020
Q3 REVIEW - FULL-CYCLE TREND MODEL Q3 PERFORMANCE -FCT = +12% -SP 500 = +4.6% -SP 500 EW = +9.5% -QLTY = +4.2% -QUAL = +4.6% YTD -FCT = 27% -SP 500 = +20% -QLTY = +22% -QUAL = +21% 3YR -FCT = +50% -SP 500 = +39% -SP EW = +24% More on FCT here: https://t.co/bZsaqrk1eb
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Don’t let the Blue Jays bats distract you from the their defense! Presented by @NutrafolMen
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New report out to 3FR Clients...updating our thoughts on valuations. If past is prologue, we should have included a trigger warning.
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There was a lot of alpha when this view wasn’t mainstream. Hat tip @3F_Research The issue is now it’s consensus
debasement happens "slowly, then quickly" Bloomberg "debasement" story count, news trend
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Inverse ETF volume (as % of total spec volume) moved from mid-20s to low-30s on yesterday's selloff. Still reflecting retail enthusiasm. For perspective, in recent years, modest corrections stop around 40% (see "yen carry")...more severe cases require >50% (liberation day).
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Appreciate that @APompliano Enjoyed the conversation!
I believe @WarrenPies is one of the top analysts on Wall Street. He has a unique view on currency debasement and why investors should be allocating to stocks, bitcoin, gold, and real estate. I sat down with Warren this morning to discuss what investors need to know.
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S&P 500 Second straight year that the market enters Q4 with Strategists year end targets below the market's current level. Can't believe we are set up for another year-end chase...
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Here's our quick breakdown from @CNBCClosingBell of the Fed meeting, opportunities and risks to year end - including a @3F_Research chart on historic "growth scares." Thanks for the conversation @LesliePicker ! https://t.co/t5GzFOdjA7
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Ultimately, Fed messaging/mkt reaction about what we expected... https://t.co/ODNWkkeJ0g
FOMC PREVIEW Big divergence between the market and the Fed: -2026 SOFR = 2.85% FFR -2026 Fed projection = 3.6% (June SEP) 1) The Fed will move towards the mkt - but not meet it 2) Contrary to consensus, recent history says stocks do well in this setup (see 9.2024 or 12.2023)
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FOMC PREVIEW Big divergence between the market and the Fed: -2026 SOFR = 2.85% FFR -2026 Fed projection = 3.6% (June SEP) 1) The Fed will move towards the mkt - but not meet it 2) Contrary to consensus, recent history says stocks do well in this setup (see 9.2024 or 12.2023)
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New 3FR report out to clients. Examining the post-Fed set up. -Unintuitively, the stocks outperform following meetings where SOFR expectations exceeded Fed. -Confusing SEP but real FFR falling across all time frames. -In growth scare, history points to the 10y breaking 3.5%.
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AUGUST RETAIL SALES +.6% (vs .2% EST) Forward retail revenue estimates have reflected this "boom." The question: Is this a reacceleration or cost passthroughs from tariffs? Weak consumer service estimates points to tariff cost increases in goods crowding out service spending.
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H2 2025 @3F_Research Outlook - published 6/26...The market continues to come to us. -10y flirting with a 3-handle, -3-4 Fed cuts now priced, -Gold making new highs, -S&P 500 making new highs, -Econ data weakening...
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New report out to 3FR clients...Examining the evidence that the economy is on the verge of re-accelerating. -Retailer revenue increasing...more likely pointing to tariff pressures vs demand -Wealth effect: Largest 3mo change in HH equity NW. -BUT, labor market weakness building
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FUTURES TRADERS: Get 40% off all evals, no activation fees, end-of-day drawdown in our live-market PRO+ accounts…and still daily PRO payouts!
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New report out to 3FR clients. Taking a fresh look at the inflation v growth debate. Within macro, the perception gap is as wide as we can remember. A few points: -Hiring rate now < Firing rate. -47% of CPI services now >4% YOY. -August data crucial JP will emphasize tomorrow.
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S&P 500 Corporate buybacks supported the market during the depths of the Liberation Day selloff. Coming into August, a-seasonal buying persisted, but is now reverting to a seasonal trough. Going back to 2014, S&P returns 3X higher during periods of aggressive corp buying.
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Despite what the skeptics say, AI is already improving productivity across businesses. Here is @fernavid explaining Caliban. An AI-powered chat bot that allows 3Fourteen Research to do analysis - chart creation, backtesting, signal analysis, etc - on the fly.
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Why @3F_Research's @WarrenPies thinks the next two months are a "risk window" for equities: https://t.co/StSIBqhN8f
cnbc.com
Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss Pies decision to downgrade equities in July, why there's so much cash on the sidelines and much more.
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New 3FR report out to clients (authored by @fernavid ) debunking a few AI bear arguments: -FCF/Earnings divergence is common during investment booms. -Our data does not support the GPU short-life/obsolescence argument. -Next phase of the AI story is non-tech beneficiaries.
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📢 NioCorp Developments: CEO Mark Smith on U.S. DoD/DoW Grant & Financing Momentum @NioCorp $NB Elk Creek Project is gaining critical support to become America’s first scandium mine-to-market supply chain. In our latest interview, CEO Mark Smith discusses: • $10M U.S. defense
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Clients check your emails for portfolio changes implemented at close.
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