3Fourteen Research
@3F_Research
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The next generation of investment research.
Joined September 2020
Q3 REVIEW - FULL-CYCLE TREND MODEL Q3 PERFORMANCE -FCT = +12% -SP 500 = +4.6% -SP 500 EW = +9.5% -QLTY = +4.2% -QUAL = +4.6% YTD -FCT = 27% -SP 500 = +20% -QLTY = +22% -QUAL = +21% 3YR -FCT = +50% -SP 500 = +39% -SP EW = +24% More on FCT here: https://t.co/bZsaqrk1eb
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Inverse ETF volume (as % of total spec volume) moved from mid-20s to low-30s on yesterday's selloff. Still reflecting retail enthusiasm. For perspective, in recent years, modest corrections stop around 40% (see "yen carry")...more severe cases require >50% (liberation day).
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Appreciate that @APompliano Enjoyed the conversation!
I believe @WarrenPies is one of the top analysts on Wall Street. He has a unique view on currency debasement and why investors should be allocating to stocks, bitcoin, gold, and real estate. I sat down with Warren this morning to discuss what investors need to know.
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S&P 500 Second straight year that the market enters Q4 with Strategists year end targets below the market's current level. Can't believe we are set up for another year-end chase...
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Here's our quick breakdown from @CNBCClosingBell of the Fed meeting, opportunities and risks to year end - including a @3F_Research chart on historic "growth scares." Thanks for the conversation @LesliePicker ! https://t.co/t5GzFOdjA7
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Ultimately, Fed messaging/mkt reaction about what we expected... https://t.co/ODNWkkeJ0g
FOMC PREVIEW Big divergence between the market and the Fed: -2026 SOFR = 2.85% FFR -2026 Fed projection = 3.6% (June SEP) 1) The Fed will move towards the mkt - but not meet it 2) Contrary to consensus, recent history says stocks do well in this setup (see 9.2024 or 12.2023)
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FOMC PREVIEW Big divergence between the market and the Fed: -2026 SOFR = 2.85% FFR -2026 Fed projection = 3.6% (June SEP) 1) The Fed will move towards the mkt - but not meet it 2) Contrary to consensus, recent history says stocks do well in this setup (see 9.2024 or 12.2023)
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New 3FR report out to clients. Examining the post-Fed set up. -Unintuitively, the stocks outperform following meetings where SOFR expectations exceeded Fed. -Confusing SEP but real FFR falling across all time frames. -In growth scare, history points to the 10y breaking 3.5%.
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AUGUST RETAIL SALES +.6% (vs .2% EST) Forward retail revenue estimates have reflected this "boom." The question: Is this a reacceleration or cost passthroughs from tariffs? Weak consumer service estimates points to tariff cost increases in goods crowding out service spending.
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H2 2025 @3F_Research Outlook - published 6/26...The market continues to come to us. -10y flirting with a 3-handle, -3-4 Fed cuts now priced, -Gold making new highs, -S&P 500 making new highs, -Econ data weakening...
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New report out to 3FR clients...Examining the evidence that the economy is on the verge of re-accelerating. -Retailer revenue increasing...more likely pointing to tariff pressures vs demand -Wealth effect: Largest 3mo change in HH equity NW. -BUT, labor market weakness building
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New report out to 3FR clients. Taking a fresh look at the inflation v growth debate. Within macro, the perception gap is as wide as we can remember. A few points: -Hiring rate now < Firing rate. -47% of CPI services now >4% YOY. -August data crucial JP will emphasize tomorrow.
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S&P 500 Corporate buybacks supported the market during the depths of the Liberation Day selloff. Coming into August, a-seasonal buying persisted, but is now reverting to a seasonal trough. Going back to 2014, S&P returns 3X higher during periods of aggressive corp buying.
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Despite what the skeptics say, AI is already improving productivity across businesses. Here is @fernavid explaining Caliban. An AI-powered chat bot that allows 3Fourteen Research to do analysis - chart creation, backtesting, signal analysis, etc - on the fly.
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Why @3F_Research's @WarrenPies thinks the next two months are a "risk window" for equities: https://t.co/StSIBqhN8f
cnbc.com
Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss Pies decision to downgrade equities in July, why there's so much cash on the sidelines and much more.
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New 3FR report out to clients (authored by @fernavid ) debunking a few AI bear arguments: -FCF/Earnings divergence is common during investment booms. -Our data does not support the GPU short-life/obsolescence argument. -Next phase of the AI story is non-tech beneficiaries.
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Clients check your emails for portfolio changes implemented at close.
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Sentiment is best revealed by how the market reacts to data. During periods of excess optimism, reactions to "good" data (earnings beats) are muted...reactions to bad data (weak jobs numbers) are outsized. This week's price action confirms we need to see sentiment cool off.
S&P 500 - SENTIMENT Now touching extreme optimism. Would be logical to see the market cool between mid-August and mid-October. @3F_Research
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S&P 500 - SENTIMENT Now touching extreme optimism. Would be logical to see the market cool between mid-August and mid-October. @3F_Research
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New report out to 3FR clients: -Trump's threat to replace Powell w/ an administration puppet is accelerating the debasement mindset. -Automatic flows to dry up between mid-August and October. -Introducing the new 3Fourteen Daily Sentiment Composite.
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