Preston Mui
@PrestonMui
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Economist @employamerica / @KNiewiadoma stan
Seattle, WA
Joined April 2013
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Speaking of productivity....
🚨 A new series from me at
@employamerica
The Dream of the 90’s is Alive in 2024: How Policy can Revive Productivity Growth
Read the first of five parts today:
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Not to go all will stancil but hundreds of retweets and thousands of likes for the someone calling Krugman a midwit on the grounds that the Consumer Price Index is "not CPI-like" is, ugh
1/
Krugman, like most other midwits, uses data to persuade, not to understand.
He sees a graph that proves that "food at home spending" is up 1.2x not 2x, and immediately uses it to demonstrated that "food prices are not up 2x".
Let's dig in.
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during first-year macro, david romer took 2 minutes of each class to give us career/life advice and one of them was straight up "do not ever look at or post on ejmr"
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FRED really needs a "crop out the pandemic" feature
Layoff rates are still marginally below their pre-pandemic trough
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The leftist way to deal with Good Economic Data seems pretty straightforward to me:
1) A strong labor market has delivered material improvements to people's lives. Not all problems are fixed but 2023 vs. 2020 is a lot better than 2012 vs. 2009.
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You need to go to the microdata (CPS-ASEC has a longer time series so I'm using that, but you can do this with the ACS too), and calculate homeownership rates for the whole adult population. Here we define householders and their spouse as homeowners, everyone else as not.
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@MorlockP
The consumer price index, which Paul cited here, is indeed CPI-like. He is not citing the consumption survey data, and neither does the link you've provided.
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[This is NOT an attempt to engage on sentiment debate]: I want to push back on the last sentence here. The costs of job loss are long-term and worse during recessions. A prof assigned me to present Davis and von Wachter (2011) in undergrad and it left a great impression on me.
I've been saying this over and over again, but: This is why inflation is so destructive to presidencies. With unemployment, overwhelming # of people are still employed, lots of unemployed expect to get hired back, etc. When you get your job, it's largely done. 1/
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Excited to announce that I will be joining the amazing team at
@employamerica
in a few months! Really looking forward to doing this group of very sharp thinkers with an important mission.
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Veep moment
White House officials exploring sending Americans rebates cards to offset gas costs ran into another problem — the chips shortage, which meant US couldn’t physically produce enough cards to make the plan work even if lawmakers tried to do it, per sources
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@bfurnas
guy who opposes putting schools in poor neighborhoods, because the school zone violations fines will disproportionally affect the poor
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People are dunking on this but he's right! This is my daily driver:
Ignore this at your own risk.
Do not put your family in a small car.
Yesterday, my wife was driving my son to school and an oncoming delivery truck crossed the center lane and hit her head on — the driver had a seizure was going 40 mph.
I was on my way to work in a separate…
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Seems better than thinking the unemployment rate isn't real or that CPI is made up or whatever.
You know who travels the country talking to people about their material circumstances? The Bureau of Labor Statistics!
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Big problem for the Fed if the very labor market they're concerned is driving inflation (services) is the very industry that's least responsive to interest rate policy.
Might get there in the end, but along the way a lot of damage to the more interest rate sensitive industries
NEW RESEARCH:
Why haven’t higher
#InterestRates
cooled the labor market enough to tame
#inflation
?
Differences in how industries respond to monetary policy may offer an explanation:
#Economy
#EconTwitter
#EconomicBulletin
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2) We got here by throwing out a lot of the economic orthodoxy told to us by Very Serious People
3) This calls into question everything else they say, imagine how much better the world could be if we kept doing that
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So who exactly are the Houthis, and what exactly would it take to get them to let trade through the Red Sea again? To help us answer this question, Joe and I truly have the perfect guest, Abdul Malik al-Houthi
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JOE: That was really, an incredible conversation. There is so much to the piracy industry than it seems at first glance.
TRACY: That was a really interesting conversation, I cannot wait to have him back on again. Also, I love how the Jones Act keeps showing up in unexpected pla
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Somewhere in brooklyn, 3 FRBNY Research RAs are frantically worried about calls to expand bank stress testing IYKYK
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A few recent studies would say no. Jorda, Singh and Taylor ('23) find long-run negative effects of tightening on the capital stock and TFP (). Ma and Zimmerman ('23), presented at JH, finds that tightening decreases R&D spending, VC funding, and patents
Once we get past this painful transition of tightening, we may find higher rates are better for growth by creating more discipline in capital allocation. via
@WSJ
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The SPR (Strategic Posting Reserve)
To clarify for those asking:
@ernietedeschi
leaving
@WhiteHouseCEA
and
@mtkonczal
joining NEC in the same month is consistent with the Biden Administration pledge to not subtract, on net, from unfiltered Econ Twitter content.
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New from me at
@employamerica
: The Indeed Wage Tracker Shows Wage Deceleration. The Fed Should Pay Attention.
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I wrote about how full employment, fixed investment, and a stable supply-side supported productivity in the 1990s at
@Noahpinion
-- check it out!
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It's one recession, Michael. What could it cost? 800,000 jobs?
I sadly won’t be online for today’s FOMC meeting proceedings.
I have grim expectations for what the SEP and Powell’s press conference will indicate: that “optimal policy” requires engineering recessionary increases in the unemployment rate.
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New from me
@employamerica
: Recessions are Mostly Driven by Lower Hiring
- Hiring, not layoffs, mostly determines the course of unemployment during recessions and recoveries
- There are still substantial welfare costs to slower hiring
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Goolsbee earlier this week: "If we keep getting strong quantity numbers… while inflation goes down... we’d have to be entertaining the possibility that we’re entering a period like the mid-to-late-90s where you had productivity growth faster than expected, faster than trend"
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@jdcmedlock
@MattBruenig
three years from now we're all going to be scamming companies out of their solar panels
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Some personal news: I left Berkeley about 3 weeks ago and now live in Seattle. I was a bit quiet on Twitter lately as moving is a whoopass but I'm pretty happy with my decision.
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New from me at
@employamerica
: Who is Driving the Labor Shortage? Part-time Over-70 Workers?
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National Park Service sued for efforts to remove invasive cats from an area in Puerto Rico.... under NEPA.
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New from me at
@employamerica
: Cars, Reopening, & Housing Drove American Inflation While Natural Gas Heated European Inflation: Disaggregating Differences in US-Europe Inflation.
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At the risk of being pedantic, in August 6.5 million entered the labor force. About the same in July.
The difference is that only 5.9 million left in August, down from 6.2 million in July.
High participation is as much about keeping people in as people entering.
Good news: Labor force participation rose to 62.8% in August, the highest since the pandemic.
**736,000 people entered the labor force, according to the latest data**
More and more Americans are looking for work.
#jobs
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The last time we saw sustained productivity growth during an expansion was the late-1990s, when all three conditions were present. Other expansions were missing one or more of them.
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Tour de Costco
We are riding to six Costcos and attempting to eat the equivalent of a whole pizza over the course of the day
Pray for me
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While a tight labor market has broad benefits, marginalized groups and low-wage workers benefit the most. This is one of my favorite figures:
@arindube
,
@davidautor
and
@AnnieMcGrew1
find that 1/4 of the 40-year rise in wage inequality erased in just 2 years!
#BeyondTheNumbers
Q3: Who benefits the most from falling unemployment and growing jobs and wages? How can we see the impacts in the jobs numbers?
#JobsDay
#BeyondTheNumbers
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1. Constrained supply of oil
2. Encourage oil consumption
3. ???
4. Reelection
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woke: disinflation
broke: deflation
bespoke: negative prices
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@markchristenson
@mattyglesias
He critiques Krugman for using the consumer expenditures survey instead of using the consumer price index. But Krugman did in fact use the CPI. The rebuttal really is that simple.
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Adrian Kugler's senate confirmation hearing is tomorrow. Here's an interesting paper of hers where she finds that increased UI generosity improves match quality and wages, as well as the likelihood of remaining on the job.
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Has it gotten harder to find a job in the past 6 months? Quit and hires both suggest yes, but in the CPS data it looks like this is mostly about job-changing. Job-finding rates for unemployed have moved sideways and still above pre-pandemic.
(Data from )
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New from me at
@employamerica
Fed Research Roundup: How Monetary Tightening Hurts Innovation Investment and the Supply Side
Key graph:
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really shows you how much of an aberration the job openings data currently is
Ch 1, The Benefits of Full Employment, dedicated to the late William Spriggs, examines the macroeconomic and labor market impacts of full employment and tight labor markets, with a particular focus on the benefits for traditionally disadvantaged workers.
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if you don't donate to employ america the duckling is going back in the sewer
@PrestonMui
@petercoy
Outside of EA, the most Preston thing ever is this video of him rescuing a duckling from a sewer while wearing full-on cycling kit!🦆🚴 4/5
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While everyone is staring at JOLTS -- the CPS-derived Employment to Employment flows measure is below 2019 levels
(Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay series, seasonally adjusted by me)
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Earnings don't just bump back after a few years when workers lose jobs (this uses observations in mass layoff events). Earnings are lower for at least 20 years after job loss.
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"I DO NOT THINK THAT WAGES ARE THE PRINCIPLE DRIVER OF INFLATION"
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In this month's labor market recap, the job market continues to look pretty solid. Not too much to pull out in terms of red flags.
I also look into these "state-level Sahm rules" people have been constructing.
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On January 26, the initial
#GDPNow
model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2024 is 3.0%.
#ATLFedResearch
Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast.
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lol, lmao even.
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Tired: weighted average of price changes
Wired: average of weight price changes
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Goolsbee citing this SFFed piece on the lagged effect of supply chain pressure on inflation, suggesting there's still disinflation in the pipeline from supply chain easing.
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New from me at
@employamerica
: an argument against using job vacancy statistics as a barometer of the labor market.
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New from me
@employamerica
: White-Collar Layoffs are Starting to Show Up in the Household Survey
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Back from vacation and you nerds are still arguing about sentiment
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New from me at
@EmployAmerica
The Argument for a Recession is Built on Weak Links: Inflation, Vacancies and Unemployment
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I made him cry lol
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@besttrousers
it is really weird that the optimal thing for me to do is to hold on to receipts for like thirty years to get reimbursed
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Overhearing a guy at Walgreens come into get his first covid shot, he's being told they need to wait for verification from whatever insurance he has, that itll take 20 to 30 minutes, and that it might not go through because he brought the wrong card or something with him
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replying all to the department wide email "it isn't even a real nobel"
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Nearly half of the hires drop this month is from professional and business services, a category with disproportionately large job growth during the recovery.
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Speaking of Jobs Day, chapter 2:
The Dream of the 90's, Part II: Clear Eyes, Full Employment, Can't Lose
(technically Friday Night Lights is an 00's show about an late 80's football team but ignore that)
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As much as we emphasize this, which measures people getting back on the job ladder, probably underrated is that this rapid recovery helped move people *up* the job ladder.
The prime-age employment rate is now higher than the pre-recession peak.
And it did so in record time, despite starting from a lower base.
It's been a historically rapid and complete recovery. Took over 12yrs to get back to pre-recession peak following the Great Recession
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Me at
@employamerica
: Labor Market Churn is Back to Normal
Fed should take note: labor market is renormalizing.
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Apparently Neel Kashkari named his daughter Ulysses, in honor of Ulysses S. Grant.
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I remember watching FSOC work expand from 1/2 FTE RAs to 3 RAs and laughing and then they said "Preston you're working on this now" and I was like "I'm 21. What is subordinated debt."
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@LoiteringIsGood
@JosephPolitano
In california YIMBYs have been pushing state-wide renter protection bills and tied worker protections and pay standards to streamlined approvals
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LASIK is wild, shine lights in your eyes for 30 seconds and tada you can read the clock, have a nice rest of your day bye bye. Nominal price steady over the last decade even with technological improvements.
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