Matthew C. Klein
@M_C_Klein
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Founder of THE OVERSHOOT and UN/BALANCED | co-author of TRADE WARS ARE CLASS WARS | For speaking: https://t.co/bD8a12V37O
Chicagoan in exile
Joined November 2012
New at THE OVERSHOOT: Inside America's Consumption Recovery https://t.co/1KimpqPYE4 High earners monetizing asset price gains are always important, but they are far from single-handedly keeping America out of a downturn.
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This is a concise explanation of how Moody's came up with the viral (and preposterous) claim that 10% of Americans are responsible for 50% of consumption
They: 1. Compute (in the SCF) the share of asset i held by income group k 2. Multiply it by "net acquisition of i" in the quarterly Financial Accounts, Delta(A_i) 3. Sum across all assets & liabilities 4. Call this "savings" of k 5. Subtract from income of k to get "consumption"
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For those looking for a thoughtful opposing argument to my laments about the sustainability of our top-heavy economic Jenga tower, @M_C_Klein offers it here:
theovershoot.co
High earners monetizing asset price gains are always important, but they are far from single-handedly keeping America out of a downturn.
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But looking across industries, this spare capacity is not particularly concentrated in industries gaining new tariff protection. In 2025 so far, capacity utilization has not risen more in industries receiving more new import protection. (2/3) https://t.co/X78Nh1Mr3t
#FEDSNote
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What did you do with the pesos from the swap? 😂
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New at THE OVERSHOOT: Inside America's Consumption Recovery https://t.co/1KimpqPYE4 High earners monetizing asset price gains are always important, but they are far from single-handedly keeping America out of a downturn.
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Great piece from Toby Nangle on how TIPS and inflation swaps will settle if we just stop getting new CPI numbers https://t.co/7Rh1yWHhmX
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Another productive use for chatbots: finding articles I wrote a long time ago when I couldn't remember the headline
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So we are on the verge of trading the most powerful technology ever invented by humans in exchange for… beans.
Bloomberg reports that NVIDIA Blackwell AI chips will be on the negotiating table this Thursday in US-China trade talks. Any substantial deal here would likely reshape the AI compute balance of power: https://t.co/HU2KuJ9G3C
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The new tariffs on China would also only be 5 pp higher than the tariffs on US allies like Japan and Korea (and most European countries) ... massive shift away from the campaign proposal 2/ https://t.co/UwNMLWFxvr
wsj.com
The U.S. would cut in half the 20% levies on Chinese goods imposed in retaliation for the export of chemicals that make deadly synthetic opioids.
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We have new unemployment rate data out of @MorningConsult , through October 25th. Less good than a few months ago (when it was down significantly Y/Y), but not clearly deteriorating yet either.
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That was fast
🛑🇦🇷 Peso weakens to 1483, near the BCRA floor 1494.53
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Recently re-read this article I wrote 9 years ago: https://t.co/OjJ4RWU6YI Wild to me that even though the data from 2010-2016 that I highlighted in the piece eventually ended up getting revised, as was expected, the problem has come back (massively) since the start of 2020.
ft.com
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I remember what the lamented Morski said to me in 2009 about why Latvia had stayed on its currency board in 2008--"if you're a 40 year Latvian, 2008 was only the 3rd biggest economic crisis of your lifetime."
@morganwarstler They could drop ARS & dollarize as people have suggested. But dollarizing without access to discount window, Fed Repo for domestically originated collateral etc is tough. Of course ARG might be enough of basket case for it to be an improvement, but thats not true for all LatAm.
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Xi calling TikTok “spiritual opium” goes so hard if you really think about it
“The concession was TikTok. For Trump, forcing the sale of the high-profile app was a populist victory framed around national security. For Xi, however, the app was a low-cost bargaining chip. He had privately dismissed it as “spiritual opium,”
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In light of Trump's pardon of Binance's CZ, I want everyone to recall that @SenLummis and @RepFrenchHill wrote to Merrick Garland accusing Binance of facilitating financing to Hamas for the October 7 attack on Israel https://t.co/YA0bIEGXDE
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Seeing some renewed guessing about who holds the long duration in Treasury futures, the other side of trades like basis trades. No need to guess! We mapped it out in detail in our earlier paper. 👇
1/🧵 We just put out a new paper putting numbers to a mystery I've been working on since 2020: who is behind the almost $2 trillion increase in long Treasury futures positions? Spoiler alert: it's mostly mutual funds but the cool thing is why. Link here: https://t.co/VgTS8Y0qrr
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