Guy Berger
@EconBerger
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Workforce Economist in Residence at Guild; Senior Fellow at the Burning Glass Institute. Labor markets, macro, and (sorry) music! Tweets represent my own views.
San Francisco, CA
Joined February 2016
This isn't your mom and pop's weak job growth environment, and the only appropriate response is macroeconomic analysis using MEMES. [Link in replies]
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Folks, free engagement farming idea -. Eat a different thing from the @Cheesecake menu every day, tweet it out.
First time at the Cheesecake Factory. Feel like today is the day I become a real American
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Blazing-fast image creation – using just your voice. Try Grok Imagine.
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The @newyorkfed has their own survey and the increase in inflation expectations is much more muted there as well
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“I asked an American why the US produced and hosted so many legendary physicists / mathematicians” is actually something we should be asking more often.
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It’s really interesting that we’ve seen a big upward move in this barometer of long run inflation expectations, much bigger than 2021-23, and not apparent in long run TIPS breakevens or long run professional forecasts.
University of Michigan Consumer sentiment final prints confirmed the gloomy vibes: consumer sentiment weakened in August, inflation fears crept back, and buying conditions for big-ticket items hit their lowest in a year. Inflation expectations added insult to injury—
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Is the big recent increase of the Michigan inflation expectations metrics (esp 5-10 years) the result of the 2024 methodological change? Or political polarization? cc @ernietedeschi @weakinstrument.
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The Death and Taxes black lager is delicious - visually and to some degree flavor-wise reminiscent of Guinness except it’s actually good. (Yes, I know Guinness is an ale).
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I bicycle (probably ~150 miles a month) and though it’s not nearly as dangerous as motorcycling it’s probably one of the riskiest activities I engage in?.
Wow, I didn't realize the difference between cars and motorcycles was this big. Motorcycles are 29x more dangerous.
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it’s an odd mix of views: brag about foreign investment but express dismay about the net international investment position.
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To the degree that before today you thought tariffs increase (decrease) inflation, today's court ruling on the IEEPA tariffs will decrease (increase) inflation.
@mattyglesias the not crazy case that once the one-time price level effects of tariffs are played out, tariffs are a large tax hike that weakens the demand side of the economy and causes disinflationary pressures.
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Jokes aside (and SCOTUS ruling dependent), this ruling only affects the IEEPA tariffs. Other tariffs remain in place and to some extent the admin will be able to use other tools to replace the IEEPA tariffs.
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<urkeldididothat.gif>.
NEW --> US Appeals Court rules Trump tariffs illegal. This is likely to be appealed to Supreme Court but for now, tariffs held ILLEGAL. Market ripping headline? Helluva ruling ahead of 3 day weekend. Hitting now on @CNBCFastMoney.
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Something that I never really appreciated as an SF resident is that, despite being “coastal” cities, Seattle and especially Portland are further inland. You’re just not that close to those cooling Pacific breezes.
An extreme heatwave is expected to develop over the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada in ~7 days, with extreme heat potentially extending down to NorCal. Some models indicate all-time September highs could be approached in Portland (105°F) and Seattle (98°F). Stay tuned.
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Is there an LLM that folks have found useful for extracting time series data out of graphs?.
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5/ As I said, I think it's *reasonable but speculative* to assume that the May-July 2025 data will be revised down eventually, whether in early 2026 or in early 2027. But it will be out of scope for the preliminary benchmark estimate that I & Waller are eagerly anticipating.
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4/ In early 2026 (not a few weeks), we'll get the annual revision, which will incorporate both the benchmark revision and also non-benchmark revisions to the post-benchmark-date data.
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3/ Assuming "what we will learn in a couple of weeks" refers to the preliminary benchmark estimate published on September 9th. that estimate will only cover data from March 2024 to March 2025. It will not cover the May, June or July data.
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2/ Waller discusses the possibility that the low May-July NFP gains will *eventually* be revised down to a small negative number, which I think is a reasonable (albeit speculative) argument. However, I think he is also making a stronger argument that I think is wrong.
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PSA The preliminary benchmark estimate in a few weeks will not be applied to May-July 2025 data!. More:. 1/ A pedantic point about Governor (and hopefully, eventual Fed Chair) Waller's revision commentary yesterday that I missed until someone pointed out to me.
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If the Fed loses its independence, it will be a great opportunity for the resurgence of the Shadow Open Market Committee:
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