Karthik Sankaran
@RajaKorman
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Statuses
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Formerly many things. 1st to rhyme Duce & Juche; say US a Transfer Union. Globalization Shill. Neoliberal Peacenik. Macro Expat. 1/3 phlegm, spleen, dad humors.
Bay Area
Joined October 2013
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Pinned Tweet
Now Is The Time For All Good Men To Come To The Aid Of Risk Parity.
I am delighted to have
@RajaKorman
at
@sherwood_news
answering the age-old question:
Who will buy all the bonds?!?!
Come because it’s Karthik’s writing, stay for Karthik’s effective buy target on the 10-year Treasury.
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The important point is to note that the bull is cocooned by a TARP.
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Thanks to American efficiency, the US can achieve with only two parties a level of deeply antagonistic institutional stalemate that usually requires 5 or more parties in Western Europe.
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Lawyers predict a new Golden Age of Discovery.
Satya Nadella says Windows PCs will have a photographic memory feature called Recall that will remember and understand everything you do on your computer by taking constant screenshots
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When someone from Minnesota has appeal in both Red and Blue areas, it can lead to a Purple Reign.
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This is probably the most basic chart that explains politics on both sides of the Atlantic.
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All hail Pelosi for bringing us closer to a parliamentarized Presidency, the extinction of the polarizing primary phase populated by weirdos who care about intraparty groupuscules (and exacerbate interparty polarization), and a blessed truncation of US election season to 8 weeks.
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If you’re an American occasionally confused about how UK TV color codes its political parties, wait till you find how Japan color codes equity movements.
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Not sure what the specialists think of this but this is a fantastic & fun read on the dislodging of Roman numerals, the borrowings from Indian and Arab mathematics,and the rise of accounting in the Renaissance.
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No. You were paid in a naan-fungible token.
I am converting part of my paycheck into Indian takeaway, does that mean I’m getting paid in Indian food?
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It just occurred to me that the founder of America's first central bank lost his life because of a duel mandate.
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If you think 70K is an expensive haircut, wait till you see how much his creditors pay for one.
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Brexit should be a lesson to others that exit from EU doesn't exempt you from globalization;it just gives you less power to shape its rules.
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But by the mid-1500s, when a customer ordered Patatas Bravas at a Spanish restaurant, the waitress would yell to the kitchen “New World Order.”
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My new time management strategy is to go “Nope, Not even gonna try” when I see something like this.
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Great to see young people making such huge strides in Carbone Capture technology.
Unbelievably grim article about NYC restaurant reservation scalpers - people are paying a thousand bucks to buy a Carbone reservation on the secondary market.
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Peak Capitalism was right there!!!!
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So I did a diagram of likely trilateral public diplomacy in this decade.
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The Electoral College
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The American challenge to the Westphalian order has come to its logical conclusion in the XXI century with its rejection of the precept—Cuius Regio, Eius Tallegio.
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This is the only kind of procyclical policy the Netherlands should be pushing on the periphery.
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The Road To Surfdom!!!!!
One of the many things I enjoy about Allister Heath’s columns is the ongoing battle between the Telegraph’s headline writers to make them sound as absurdly apocalyptic as they can, and their photo editors to undermine all this with the picture choice.
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DOS Kapital
NAVARRO: CHINA COMMUNIST PARTY OPERATES ON MICROSOFT SOFTWARE
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It was a wrenching history with huge human costs, but not every country inherits a relatively industrialized portion of the German empire, the legacy of a Habsburg bureaucracy, and have its poorer bits annexed by Russia. Which is why the really interesting one is Romania.
Polish Tiger
When do we start to talk about economic development lessons from Poland?
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At this time, I would like to remind you of the consensus among Social Scientists that in the aftermath of the GFC, the US experienced a populist backlash because it did TARP and the Eurozone experienced a populist backlash because it did not do TARP.
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Kind of a hobbyhorse that one of the structural changes in the US economy over the last 100+ years is the substantial relative economic decline of areas located along the major inland riverine system.
In red is every US county where the median house price is less than $150,000.
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Obviously a man of culture.
BREAKING
The billionaire behind the Chobani yogurt brand has acquired Anchor Brewing Co. with plans to modernize and reopen the historic San Francisco brand that closed last year after 127 years in operation.
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Indian children learn to eat spicy food by pairing it with a yogurt-based dip-like preparation. This is a Raita passage.
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Area man who doubled character limit with a fiat keystroke concerned about hyperinflation.
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It’s kind of funny that the 3 wings of today’s GOP can all be associated with Austrians—Arnold Schwarzenegger, Friedrich von Hayek and that third guy.
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Huh. Down market.
High-end outdoor brand Canada Goose is laying off 656 employees, around 17% of their workforce
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Joy Subdivision
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With complete nominal certainty, an actual use case, and no unsettling tendency to suffer substantial mark-to-market losses (albeit lower losses than nominal bonds) the USPS Forever Stamp is a vastly superior inflation hedge to TIPS, precious metals or crypto.
The United States Postal Service is seeking approval to hike the price of first-class mail stamps to 66 cents from 63 cents to offset the rise in inflation.
If approved, it would take effect July 9.
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As you all know, I’m typically very pro-EU/EZ, but there is something epically funny about an EU Commission led by a CDU pol accusing China of engaging in insufficient fiscal stimulus to spur local demand and relying too much on exports to spur recovery from a financial crisis.
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The Battle Of Water Loo has been lost at Eton.
Eton has delayed the start of its term as toilets in the boys' boarding school are blocked from flooding in Thames Water's sewers.
"The sewers in the centre of Eton won't cope with the arrival of nearly 1,350 boys."
A stinking
@BloombergUK
exclusive 👇
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Money printer goes beurre!
Saw this in my daughter's National Geographic, and why have I not heard in this before!?
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These 3 charts basically capture everything I believe about what works with development strategy. 1st export mix is Malaysia, 2nd is Brazil. Malaysia exports are 130% of GDP. Brazil is c. 14%.
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The US may have just crossed a great cultural watershed. I was shopping and chicken thigh meat was more expensive per pound than chicken breast meat.
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A hegemonic debtor at the center of the international monetary system?
what would be the hardest part of the international order to grasp for a 17th-18th century diplomat transported to the present
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@Mirko_De_Maria
@QJEHarvard
I regret to inform the economists that the historian Paul already Cornered this market about 50 years ago.
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That would make him literally a Known Unknown.
can you imagine waking up one day to learn that Donald Rumsfeld "disappeared"
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Your periodic reminder that a staggering amount of the times that the Anglo-American right is fulminating about Karl Marx, it’s really furious about Max Weber.
End the permanent state. As President, I will repeal civil-service protections for federal employees and replace these managerial protections with sunset clauses. If the President can’t hold his position for more than 8 years, neither should bureaucrats.
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He was previously in charge of clearing at First Republic.
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The secret of Japanese industrial policy lies in their notebooks. They don’t care about margins.
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The ECB is basically answering a very long exam question. How do you ensure symmetrical transmission of monetary policy across heterogenous monetary subsovereigns with a large stocks of govt debt in a monetary union that is not a fiscal union and barely a partial banking union?
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Asking for an ECB backstop after you bailed on a PM who was the ECB Prez who invented the ECB backstop would have very strong of vibes of “Mum, Dad, I’ve run away. Send money.”
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The way to avoid the Thucydides Trap is to seize the Metternich Moment and find Bismarckian Balance through Tordesillas Tradeoffs, thus avoiding the danger of a Sarajevo Surprise that leads to the Macedonian Mastery of a Standby Successor from outside the Pacific Peloponnesus.
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Since I seem to having a good day on the twitters, thought I would post this "I'm looking" on my true online home as I figure out what to do next. The formal details are on LinkedIn but below is the important stuff.
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Is it normal to say a mean thing about the median?
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I thought the Xi-Modi menu looked like the best I'd seen in a while, and I thought I should post some comparisons. It is. My rank order on the food is 1. Modi for Xi 2. Trump for Macron 3. Xi for Trump (shockingly bad). 4. Trump for Xi (even worse).
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Person fearing coup de grace finds solace in coupe de glace.
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It’s quite shocking how much China has hindered the prospect of democratic industrialization in large parts of Africa & Latin America in the last 35 years, especially after the countries of the North Atlantic basin had done so much to encourage that over the preceding 400 years.
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Kant would allow that as it’s Duty Free.
You should be allowed to steal stuff from the airport store
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Congratulations to China for achieving the Developed Market status of having its government debt trade as pure rate product, showing virtually no concern about how the state of the business cycle might increase the current or contingent liabilities of the government.
This is a milestone chart for the global economy: For the first time, China’s ultra long-end government bond yields have fallen below those of Japan.
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@EverydayWarren
The historical function of Russia over at least 40 years has been to serve as a What Not To Wear for China.
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The secret to Genghis Khan's success was a 12-steppe program.
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I can’t believe the price of a barrel of oil has risen 123 $ in just 21 months to 87 $.
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Because all valuations are driven by narratives, all trades are subject to tale risk.
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@MkBlyth
Just FTR, while UK has done some extraordinarily stupid self-inflicted sh*t over the last 10 years, it has long been poorer than US on a PPP basis, with the 2007 numbers refelecting a very weak USD (€ at 1.60).
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Did you know that a 70 inch Samsung 4K UHD cost less than 1/12 of a farthing in 1209. Almost as much as a single peppercorn.
The Bank of England governor says that cryptocurrency investors should be prepared to lose all their money 🤡
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All the Wunderkinds should really be forced to take a GAAP year.
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Fishing for compliments after ending fission for complements.
Sex is good but have you tried having your country shutting down its last nuclear power plants in 30 mn?
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@KAErdmann
A US mortgage is more than forced savings. It’s access to non-recourse long-term leverage to purchase an asset while enjoying asymmetric reaction of cashflows to interest rates (no reset/easy refi); not having to endure variation margining; and getting tax-free 500K in cap gains.
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Very surprised to learn that the German for enfant terrible is not Bratwurst.
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Unlike economists, who are rate-of-change-headed, normal people (by definition) are level-headed.
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All history is the history of technological diffusion, which quite frequently takes the form of IP theft.
North Korean hackers have infiltrated two South Korean semiconductor equipment firms, potentially to steal intelligence for a domestic chipmaking program. Intellectual property theft is what drives technological development in autocracies.
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These Tory arguments that people need to learn to do without nice things and instead be satisfied that Brexit was delivered have this late Brezhnev feel of “How dare you complain about sausage? We won the war!”
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It’s wild how many North American political figures who were once Indian now go to great lengths to deny this.
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A book that was written because the Tiger Mom lady told the author he should write it.
upper west side liberals in 2016 who want to understand working class whites make a book a best seller
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The most important aspect of USD centrality is not its role as the dominant international reserve asset, but rather its role as the dominant denomination of cross-border liabilities. Here I stand, I can do no other.
BLACKROCK'S FINK SAYS UNITED STATES IS JEOPARDIZING ITS RESERVE CURRENCY STATUS WITH US DEBT CEILING "DRAMA"
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Structured products based on short-volatility strategies are frequently marketed to dentists because they are implicitly long decay.
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Because every Happy Meal is the same but each Unhappy Meal is unhappy in its own way.
Burger King introduces a range of boxed deals called “Real Meals,” including the Pissed Meal, Blue Meal, Yaaas Meal and DGAF Meal, as part of Mental Health Awareness Month:
“Burger King restaurants understands that no one is happy all the time."
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There a difference between a subscription model where one (I) would gladly have paid 8$ to read things the algo would have learned were interesting to me, and a subscription model where it brings me the things from people who paid 8$ to tell me things I don’t care about.
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A roll model.
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Also--it's all about the Talk Radio.
@GMarchbanks
@naufalsanaullah
@Macropsychology
@TheStalwart
@LHSummers
@BetseyStevenson
The negative feedback loop of sprawl, taxation/issuance to increase road space, increased car usage that absorbs increased road space, commuting time, and time stuck in traffic jams while listening to right-wing talk radio is the heart of our political predicament.
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Personal news. I’m delighted to say that I have joined my good friend
@vsualst
as senior market strategist at Corpay, a leading provider of currency advisory & trading services to corporates. Karl is very tolerant of my bad jokes so do not hope/fear that I will stop making them.
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I had to get my feelings about Globalization 2.0, catch-up growth, dynamic comparative advantage, and technological convergence off my chest.
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The Democrats should just use this opportunity to pass a 51-50 law that says nothing can ever pass the Senate again that does not have the approval of Senators from states comprising at least 50.1 percent of US GDP. (Split states split GDP).
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The Jones Act forces the US to take shipbuilding littorally, but not seriously.
Had to blink several times before fully comprehending this.
As a long-term result of the Jones Acts «…three of the ten commercial oil tankers selected to ship fuel for DOD as part of the newly enacted Tanker Security Fleet are Chinese-built.»
(Via Toozebook)
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When the Byzantines stole the silkworm from China c. 560, this introduced the West to
Justinian Time Manufacturing.
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Napoleon III was the first man to start his career with a Coup and end it with a Sedan.
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The FT should redo it’s How To Spend It feature by redirecting it at governments that don’t use their fiscal space.
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The time to get excited is when Brazil has at least a 100 billion dollars worth of Panda Bonds issued in RMB so that the Saudis receiving RMB for the oil they ship to China can buy something that’s not Chinese but still RMB denominated.
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The dollar is
1. Not a burden
2. Not a unique privilege
3. Not irreplaceable
4. Difficult to replace
5. Subject to creeping displacement
6. A weapon subject to overuse
7. An asset/liability/invoice loop
7. Less important as reserves
8. More important as a liability
9. Clickbait
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Maybe Russia’s role over at least the last 40 years has been to serve as a “What Not To Wear” for China.
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Neoliberalism is the belief that the Secretary of the Treasury should be above the Secretary of State in the US Line of Succession.
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Do you have any idea how many senior officials in the Argentine finance ministry and central bank in the last 40 years have had Economics Ph.Ds from American Universities?
My guess is intro PhD macro courses would do a better job of motivating the field if instead they dropped students in Argentina for a few weeks with only pesos; and seized their bank accounts half way through
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