Krishna Memani
@KrishnaMemani
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Investor The views expressed here are entirely personal.
Livingston, NJ
Joined July 2014
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The Federal Reserve’s latest announcement on additional interest rate hikes isn’t just a capitulation, it’s a surrender. Read my latest piece:
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Spreading secular stagnation means investors must accept new reality of low rates:
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Markets may discover the early Christmas gifts President Trump and Fed Chair Powell gave them on trade and rates policy may not materialize as they hoped.
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@DavidSacks
Was RoKU a small business... leaving 400 plus million in an on balancesheet deposit...this small business and farms and family owned business is a narrative politicians use....
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Brexit was catchy; Itexit isn’t. What the political crisis in Italy may mean for global equities and debt near and longer term:
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Reality may soon overtake the post-election stock market rally. Three strategies investors may want to consider:
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As we head into the second half of 2018, watch U.S. inflation, the Fed, and the U.S. dollar. I believe they will tell us everything we need to know.
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Actually Bianco's point is very good...2008-9 was called a housing crisis when it was a banking leverage crisis...so this isn't a tech crypto speculation as much as bond speculation...that is unwinding hard
@KrishnaMemani
I agree …
but substitute the bond market for Crypto. The bond market was the most speculative asset (thanks to years of central bank printing) and now it is unwinding hard.
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What’s going to happen in the market and economy in 2020? I think the more interesting question is what’s NOT likely to happen:
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Brexit vote sends shockwaves through global markets. Here are four things investors need to know now:
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Trump economic advisor Gary Cohn may be in line to replace Fed Chair Janet Yellen. What that means for markets:
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China, emerging markets seem back on track for now, but U.S. may be stalling and cause for worry:
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In our view, the recent market correction may be an appropriate response to excessive expectations for U.S. growth:
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So when I was a fund manager and CIO of a fund complex, we always used to be upset with the distribution folks as to why they can't sell our funds...being an allocator now I understand why...they are all the same...other than short to medium term performance...most of them sound,…
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New evidence Chinese elites want more structural reform and less debt-fueled growth. My latest views:
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Five reasons why emerging market equities may be set to outperform during the next market cycle:
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Weak productivity growth makes the U.S. payroll report less impressive:
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I’ll be co-hosting
@SquawkCNBC
tomorrow from 7-8am ET. Looking forward to joining
@MelissaLeeCNBC
,
@WilfredFrost
, and
@andrewrsorkin
for some great discussions about the markets, the economy and trade.
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Bottom line: Today’s much anticipated BOJ meeting didn’t change the overall global interest rate picture much.
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I think if there was a playbook for how to turn a semi banking crisis into something much bigger, this is how it would unfold
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Tale of the taper: Why the European Central Bank is unlikely to scale back its bond purchases any time soon:
#ECB
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Looking for warning signs in the markets? Focus on fundamentals & asset class flows, not historic low volatility:
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Why I am optimistic about the prospects for global equities now and in the future:
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Risk on or risk off? As we begin Q4, that is the question:
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With Brexit fears weighing on global markets, here’s how I am positioning my portfolios:
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The policy pivot by the Fed and other central banks will likely spell the end of recession talk. But to understand why the global expansion will continue, we can look to China, the true driver of the global real economy.
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The problem with SVB was quite simple...it had a cheap source of deposits...it let it grow as fast as it could because equity markets rewarded that...it could not deploy those deposits in a profitable way...so it bought MBS in size..
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May jobs report misses by a mile, ends talk of June interest rate hike. What it means for the Fed’s next move:
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Four market developments I think investors will see between now and the end of 2016:
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It’s a shame that investors cannot see the forest from the trees. Their infatuation with future rate cuts has overshadowed a much bigger story. What will drive future tightening?
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The results of the Federal Reserve’s March meeting were as expected, with one surprise.
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Is the U.S. economy cresting? Tax cut or no tax cut, budget deal or no budget deal, the U.S. economy is unlikely to grow at a rate north of 2% in 1Q18.
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Today, I’ve chosen to no longer be dismissive about my thoughts on
#Greece
& the
#ECB
. Here's why:
http://t.co/xTAXo0Sfab
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One central bank has driven monetary policy innovation for two decades. No, it’s not the
#Fed
.
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You have no idea how true this is until the medical practice you go to has been acquired by Optum....mindlessness, dash for efficiency that leads to gross inefficiency, treating old patients as a number on the ledger....I blame them and I blame the doctors who sold their…
United Healthcare likely builds tunnels under American Hospitals to hold the cash they print quarterly
$500 billion for this quagmire is LOL shame on us.
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Are we coming to the end of the current cycle? While risks are rising, it’s not time to wave the white flag on this business cycle. My views on the global economy and markets here:
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So let me ask a question.....If Peter Thiel wasn't rich and successful, would you care too bits about his views on European politics....and if you wouldn't, why would you care simply because he was rich and successful as a tech entrepreneur....
There are three plausible futures for the west. Islamic Sharia Law, totalitarian AI, or hyper - environmentalism. - Peter Thiel
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Recent statements from Fed policymakers signal they will pause on rate hikes despite improving U.S. economic data:
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This is not GFC...I Know I know...but the thing to remember is that the CB are very good at dealing with Funding crisis...not credit crisis... duration mismatch and rising rates at it's core is a funding crisis, not a credit crisis
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Sometimes I wonder why the promoters of speculative growth tech stocks are not looked at with the same disdain by fintwit as the crypto guys….net losses are worse…$cvna
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Talk of tariffs should have us focused on politics and the dollar, not economics. My latest blog explains:
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Could spring be in the air for the markets as well as the weather?
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This is astounding amount...with circle at 3.3 and Roku at 0.5 b...that leaves a lot of unaccounted for large deposits...a public company would have to disclose it...so has to be private companies, but more likely the VCs themselves and personal accounts...
Gruenberg: The ten largest deposit accounts at SVB held $13.3 billion in the aggregate.
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I think the reply guys are highly underappreciated in twitter....yes we don't have as many original thoughts as you critical thinkers...but two observations...one, you original thinkers won't exist without us on twitter....and second, if your thoughts are really that original and…
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Latest QE from ECB positive for risky assets. Time for Fed to do its part & get off tightening path.
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The good news: a mini economic boom is underway in
#China
. The bad news: long-term challenges may remain.
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I can’t help but think next year will be marked by “modest” growth. With the economy improving only modestly, I expect the market to follow suit. My latest column explains why:
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@TaviCosta
If the intent was to reduce domestic gas prices (as opposed to global oil prices), wouldn't this be the preferred option....to feed your own refineries....whether the overall policy was good is a separate question
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Dovish comments by Yellen signal slower pace of interest rates:
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Financial markets are calling
#Fed
’s bluff on any 2016 rate hike. Here’s why they’re probably right:
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EU well positioned post-French presidential election: attractive valuations & economic cycle with a long way to run:
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@dampedspring
@biancoresearch
Bianco knows better...but it doesn't matter....you can use a cash account with a MMF sweep....not that hard...that is why the term cash equivalents was invented. I can understand Circle maintaining a large on balancesheet deposit, but ROKU, really?
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Neil Dutta has had the best calls in the cycle...and he is adjusting his priors...I like that...that I am doing the same, priceless
"We are on a glide path now to a rate cut probably by March," says Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research
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My latest
#Greece
perspective: Let’s Hope the Greek Deal Isn’t a Versailles Mistake:
http://t.co/fAhpenJOsc
#Grexit
http://t.co/aETU95Own0
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I know I will get dunked on this bigly....but if you are starting your career, don't become a credit analyst....anywhere....a path to intellectual serfdom...
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I think inflation not going down fast enough because the economy may be reaccelerating is very different from inflation is entrenched. And the remedies from a CB are very different. Former is the case in the US. Latter is what people make up to scare us.
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Don’t be fooled by the uptick in US CPI. No reflation of US economy unless and until this happens:
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VIDEO:
@TomKeene
and I talk about what to expect in 2015, from the
#ECB
to the
#FED
to
#emergingmarkets
:
http://t.co/oW9kxjb6ol
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Policy pacemaker keeping global growth heartbeat steady. My latest views on whether it’s sustainable:
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#Grexit
? Eurozone crisis? The real story now seems to be
#China
:
http://t.co/YUauL6rtVD
http://t.co/C7clR7pvYF
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Its funny to see all the old fintwit warriors of 2008 coming out with their memories of that period...as if they foresee bad omens....and warning people about potential upcoming misery
Come on guys...this isn't 2008....one bank with bad risk management failed...
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I have come to appreciate that the firm level, for large asset managers, the distribution strategy and execution is probably a bigger source of firm alpha than investment performance
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My latest views on why the Fed may have a long wait for inflation to show up in the U.S. economy:
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JP Presser was interesting in that the Fintwit is all gaga about his comment on financial conditions...we can argue about it as much as we like but it is irrelevant...What is relevant is that he did not swat down the markets...that was not a communication snafu..it was purposeful
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I give up....I guess I don't understand what they are thinking, at least for 24
If the Fed SEP upgrades GDP growth and core inflation and leaves three cuts in place it will totally blow my mind...because then I would have no idea what they are thinking. I don't think it plays out this way.
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People treat macro as if they know the answers.....Let me tell you.....THEY DONT HAVE A F***ING clue....I don't either...I am guessing like the rest of them .....the dudes you have to skeptical about are people who think they truly have a clue....
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Here is the bottom line for the Fed week...25 bp...staying to the script, no swatting down animal spirits...no jackson holing....reiterate the same basic logic...and wait for the data..smart..the bulls will run with it...and the bears will tell you about the upcoming famine...
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Are stocks overvalued? Here's why I see few signs of bubbles.
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But it couldn't hedge because that would impact profitability and show that rapid deposit growth was a problem rather than a positive attribute...
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From a macro standpoint, the best odd lots ever. Next time put him and Zoltan in an intellectual cage match, backed by data as opposed to narrative, and the hollowness of Brettonwoods 3.0 will become self evident.
EXTRA ODD LOTS:
The BIS is out with a new report on the global impacts of a booming $USD.
So its head of research
@HyunSongShin
came on to talk with me and
@tracyalloway
about what they found, and the "tripwires" strewn throughout the financial system
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Here’s the kickoff to my mid-year outlook. Take a look & read my big calls for 2015.
http://t.co/RiXyJSbBxX
http://t.co/X5USO9JwHR
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If the Fed does 75 bp, which is now likely, any climbdown from 75 bp in subsequent meetings will be construed at a quasi pivot...rightly or wrongly...IMHO
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@GRDecter
Most companies are run like that...their outstanding debt goes up every year...so does their networth and profitability...
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I am deeply skeptical of duration supply as the primary reason for the rate sell off...imagine a counterfactual...us economy was slowing down...while inflation was coming down....everyone and their brother and sister would want us duration...the driver of the current market…
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When people say this Fed meeting would be judged poorly by history, all they are saying is that they imposed their views as to what the Fed should do...as opposed to paying attention to what Waller said they will do
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Asset management is a tough gig...I know....but the fundamental guys typically have a tough going...but they are humble about it....the most insufferable ones are the quants...they think they have gotten the keys to the kingdom...becausethey know correlation...when they have no…
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Hello! I’m excited to join Twitter. I’m the
@OppFunds
CIO and the “Low for Long” Guy:
http://t.co/pA3JHFaobL
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Concoda is a funny and prescient dude...point taken.
if you're tired of losing money in crypto, there's always the stock market, corporate bonds, Treasuries and Rolex watches
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There are a few posters I like...
@donnelly_brent
because he talks from experience.
@sidprabhu
for the best disses imaginable to the extent that he gets blocked......
@dampedspring
because he puts it out there even if he is misguided and i diasagree with him 90 pct ,
@RenMacLLC
,…
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I thing it is worth remembering that the corporate sector is quite prone to making bad investments ..it can come from cheap cost of capital...zirp....or high level of profitability with no scope of redeployment of that profitability in their core business
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Ultimately, the current cycle will be longest cycle on record
#2015Outlook
http://t.co/eYAkCuPIp7
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Look...let us not overthink this....Fed is cutting rates in not too distant a future....and today's CPI or tomorrow's employment number or anything else is not going to change that outlook....5 and change for short rates is too high....let us just go with that
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The current deposit crisis isn't about deposits....it's about cheap deposits...the Fed and others can solve the liquidity crisis but they can't change the new effective cost of funds... until they reduce the rates on IOER and RRP...which they won't...as we will find out today...
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And if you think all of this is true for public markets...I assure you private markets are not much different...one more pitch on sourcing differentiation from them, I will do you know what
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In the GFC, there were a few really annoying characters, who were 100 pct right about the problem, if not the solution. That prize for this cycle goes to...wait for it ..
@sidprabhu
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Let us all just agree that everyone was right...and move on.
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#Greferendum
vote may cause flight to quality w/ USD & Treas prime beneficiaries. My POV:
http://t.co/SSE7ab2rb3
#oxi
http://t.co/CJUUoT7qZQ
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If even Home Builders are not slowing, let alone falling off a cliff, how do we get to a recession and those Fed cuts in a few months, inquiring minds want to know.
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I have Stephen Miller ads in my TL looking for a contribution....what did I do to deserve this....my name is Krishna...and I live in NJ...what algo are they working off of...
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#China
#yuan
devaluation supports my view that global
#interestrates
will remain low for long:
http://t.co/6g4aHyaxEa
http://t.co/xIZ5ZsITZq
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What’s the biggest threat to the global economic outlook? My answer here: Hint: It involves the Fed.
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CRE this, QRA and tail that, core at 0.359 and all...but the nominal growth is 5 6 percent....for the largest economy in the world why that is the ultimate doom scenario I have no idea...don't like bonds at 4.5 pct I get it....then don't buy bonds ..let it adjust....why is that…
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It’s tough being the
#Fed
chair, especially these days. Let’s talk Wednesday's FOMC meeting & investor implications:
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