Jesper
@JesAmbro
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@utdrobbo
It’s definitely an example of yet another opportunity for you to complain about ETH. It’s not like he has 5 great alternatives to choose from, is it?! Right now he has to pick his poison: Casemiro who’s an enigma, Eriksen who cannot defend or Amrabat who’s just generally poor
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@MarkOgden_
No he doesn’t. What a lazy, spur of the moment article with no relevant benchmark/analysis of his and the team’s performances during the last two years.
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@utdrobbo
I didn’t write that you complained about Casemiro.If you want to call out posters, acting like a genius, at least learn to read properly. If I had to pick btw what’s more likely - ETH making decisions to self-sabotage or him having a plan that you don’t see - I’ll pick the latter
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@yoofnited
@_itsm28
Lacey is 15. Makes no sense to bring him into this discussion (and yes, I have seen him play so I don’t write out of ignorance).
From a probability point of view, doing what Garnacho does now as an 18 year old is extremely unlikely and therefore unlikely to be repeated by Lacey
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@AcademyScoop
Whilst I agree w/you, your analysis is lacking a key factor: the difference *between* Mainoo & Lacey. Mainoo’s athleticism was much more progressed at same age & has helped him integrate easier. So I expect Lacey to suceeed later - if at all - once he’s hopefully bigger & quicker
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@MrStephenHowson
The discourse these days would suggest Pogba doesn’t deliver anything & is the CAUSE of Utd’s struggles. He was rated 3rd best player in PL last year - atm he’s rated
#9
. He’s got the highest assist/90min - mostly playing in a midfield 2. Hard to fathom how biased ppl’s views are
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@oeste
Or maybe you’re not seeing it? Because he clearly *has* ideas as was obvious last season. The more pressing & interesting Q is: why is it not coming through right now? Lack of fitness, individuals not following directions, players out of form? Partly on OGS, but partly on players
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@CantonaManc
@mufcinfodotcom
Oh look, another fan doing everything they can to slate our players. Why not try to explain *why* it happened instead of automatically assuming the worst? *Could* there be other reasons than not caring or not respecting the fans? Maybe that could help bridge players and fans
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@academyarenaUTD
⚽️ Top goal scorer: Ennis (u18)
🅰️ Most assists: Mather (u18/u23)
🏆 U18s POTY: Dan Gore (think he will play u18 until Xmas, then u23)
🏆 U23s POTY: Garnacho
🆕 Best emerging talent promoted to the U18s: Louis Jackson (if he counts) / 2nd half of season: Shea Lacey
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@Bruun6eren
@6erendk
Morten Bruun: ‘Ingen manager taler så systematisk sine spillere ned [som Rafa]’
José Mourinho: ‘hold lige min portvin’
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@Stamjaklen
@SrenKVillemoes
Katastrofescenarierne handlede ikke om at ‘forstå artiklerne’ eller ej. Hele pointen var, hvordan man skulle reagere under eksponentiel stigning med multiplikative effekter og enorm modelusikkerhed på baggrund af manglende data. Deraf kommer ‘forsigtighedsprincippet’.
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@jeannebadino
@hjernemad
Så kan jeg - som statistiker - fortælle dig, at du bør bekymre dig. Det lyder ikke som om, du har sat dig ind i sagen. Glem økonomien og verdenshandlen - den skal nok klare sig...
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@Bruun6eren
6) vundet ligaen over bl.a. City og Liverpool samt splittet bl.a. Juventus ad i Youth CL. Med andre ord, det er alt for tidligt at konstatere noget ift. United’s talenter på baggrund af en meget lille stikprøve. Men ikke at teste dem er det samme som at afskrive dem fra start...
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@MarkOgden_
Or they are - by a country mile - the most covered club & thus you get the illusion that they end in sagas because the transfer processes are followed much more closely than other clubs where you only hear the end result & thus get the illusion that it’s been a smooth process
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@timlongsports
Yep. Another example: Nani at 23 after 2,5 years w/MUFC. More precisely from January 2010 ag. Arsenal at the Emirates. Next 18-24 months he was almost unplayable - or as SAF said after Arsenal: ‘the penny has dropped’.
Sir Alex understood that many players develop non-linearly
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@Bruun6eren
2) der så United’s ungdomshold dengang, var den eneste ‘sikre’ rent talentmæssigt Giggs. Ingen havde regnet med, at Scholes ville blive PL’s måske bedste midtbanespiller, og at Gary og Phil Neville ville få så store roller for United. Særligt Phil.
Derfor er det klart, at man...
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@K_G_Andersen
@SSI_dk
@EricTopol
@OurWorldInData
2/2 … impact on cardiovascular diseases (recent Nature article), damage to T-cells etc. because when you open up & expose a full society to a disease that is still relatively unknown, the margin of error *must* be extremely small. Otherwise, you run a huge irreversible risk
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@TheDevilsDNA
I think he ‘feels the need’ b/c he can see that the players cannot carry out his instructions right now. They are low on confidence, they don’t dare making the ‘right’ decisions (i.e., are afraid of making mistakes) & as such, short term, he has to take a more pragmatic approach
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@Bruun6eren
4) Ift. de konkrete talenter, du nævner i artiklen, så er du vist ikke helt opdateret på Brewster. Foden, bestemt, men Brewster regnes ikke i nærheden af fx Greenwood, og også Gomes og Odoi er altid blevet betragtet som bedre talenter og gør det stadig.
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@ManUnitedYouth
@jamesrobsonES
This. Plus, both Pochettino and Klopp seem well-liked by fans and players alike. They don't create the drama that Mourinho does. But hey, let's keep pointing to the 2nd place that, statistically, wasn't nearly as impressive as most people suggest.
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@UnitedPeoplesTV
@newboy1799
@Ankaman616
‘s quote makes sense. I’m a big fan of Mainoo but he played the poorest half in a while - stats back that up. Won none of his ground or aerial duals & seemed a bit ‘off’.
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@Bruun6eren
Ærligt spørgsmål: hvor meget har du set de her unge spillere, Morten? For der er godt nok meget sludder i den tekst. Lad mig starte et sted: først og fremmest er det nærmest umuligt på forhånd at spå om ‘class of 92’. Det er først i retrospekt, at det giver mening. Af dem, der...
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@Bruun6eren
5) ift. kampen imod Astana var det på kunstgræs i -20 grader. Selvfølgelig får du ikke det bedste at se dér (og én kamp kan heller ikke bruges til noget, det er ren støj). Kampen imod Midtjylland er også misvisende. De manglede Greenwood og spillede dårligt, men inden da havde...
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@Bruun6eren
3) ikke kan erklære er nyt ‘Class of 92’, eftersom man heller ikke dengang kunne gøre det, før det rent faktisk skete. Men det er faktisk lige så meget klubbens egne trænere, der hyper disse spillere op som de bedste siden gruppen med Pogba, Lingard, M. Keane og mytiske Morrison.
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@K_G_Andersen
@SSI_dk
@EricTopol
@OurWorldInData
1/2 In addition, it is slightly worrying that
@SSI_dk
almost exclusively discusses cases vs ICU. This simple relation can be assessed by almost everyone. What they should be spending time on instead is what’s less accessible to most (research), e.g. implications of Long Covid…
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@jacobgorm
@me_marco
Og er desuden meget effektiv imod luftbårne vira… måske man skulle gøre noget her i stedet for at erklære pandemien for ‘død’ (hvilket den åbenlyst ikke er). Smart måde at undgå investeringer i skolen, men idiotisk ift. at sikre imod fremtidige ‘bølger’.
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@pkwestel
Another way to think about it: had James’ season been the other way around & he had ended the season like he started, everybody would be singing his praises. A lot of the criticism stems from representativeness bias and the idea that footballers develop linearly...
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@HansenKenn
Er det ikke efterhånden meget normalt - at udefans er mere aktive end hjemmebanefans? United’s udebanefans er eksempelvis bredt anerkendt som nogen af de mest vokale i Premier League. Tænker også, det har noget at gøre med det mildest talt forfærdelige fodbold, de spiller pt.
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@jb_8521
Honestly, Ralf might be right in his assessment of the club as a whole but his OWN actions are beyond ridiculous. Take the only youngster who showed spirit & heart against LFC off the team, then continue picking 2 players who’ve shown nothing all season & will leave in 1 month 🤦♂️
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@BrankoMilan
‘He also is frank in saying he doesn’t have the answers, partly because he believes the easy solutions prescribed by economists often hurt more than they help’
🎯
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@jb_8521
Have to give RR credit - his criticism of the club has completely diverted the attention from his own performance, which has been borderline horrific. Icing on the cake is him not playing the future of the club during a period where the season is practically dead 🤦♂️
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@lauriewhitwell
@Ankaman616
@ianirving_
@AndyMitten
Good listen but
@Ankaman616
‘s ‘taking off Mainoo is worst decision in years’ seems ETH agenda driven rather than data driven: NF created same xG in both halves so def was not statistically worse off when introducing McT. Also, Mainoo won 0 duals & was lowest ranked player in 1.h
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@MC_of_A
This. If you look at his stats per 90. minutes the most important ones have actually increased since his debut season (goals, assists, chances created etc). Only thing that has decreased is game time. The idea that he’s become a worse player is nonsensical for a 22-year old.
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@Stamjaklen
@SrenKVillemoes
Man behøver ikke nogen særlig baggrund for at forstå det (ikke-teknisk): Du skal blot forstå, at virus er utroligt smitsomt, har ukendte, men potentielt dødelige effekter, at din adfærd påvirker min adfærd & at immunitet er usikker. Konklusion: reagér ud fra worst case scenario
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@MartinJuhl2
@FSBuchholzer
Derudover viser han også, at han ikke forstår sig på hverken sandsynlighedsfordelinger eller risikohåndtering under usikkerhed. Enten er det manglende forståelse eller ensidig bias for at fremme et særligt narrativ
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@AcademyScoop
@academyarenaUTD
Puzzled by this. Happy for Forson, he’s a fine talent & is rated by MUFC, but everything he does, Amad does better - except for physicality. Despite this, Amad was a star in a physical league. If Amad can’t get games for the 1st team, you’ve got to fear for the likes of Lacey
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@maramperninety
Really, this is your takeaway? I am surprised because I thought that getting a ‘system manager’ in would immediately make this team play well. What if Ralf is not able to make the team a unit then? Could it be that there is *much* more to a manager than structure & patterns?
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@TarpCPH
@hjernemad
@CT_Bergstrom
“Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything we do after a pandemic will seem inadequate.”
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@chrbennike
@dahyernst
Jeg ville ikke bruge tid på Ågerup. Han viser nærmest ugentligt, at han ikke forstår sig på ikke-linearitet og komplekse systemer. Mere bekymrende er det dog, at dk-medier giver ham taletid
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@timlongsports
Patience is also what eliminates randomness.
Representatives bias & being fooled by randomness are 2 main reasons for people not ‘seeing’ progress. Many believe it’s a linear process that has to improve constantly (real improvement requires a much larger sample than many think)
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@KarstenKrogh14
@Lone_Frank
@weekendavisen
‘Ro på’?! Det er simpelthen et udtryk for slet ikke at have forstået, hvad der sker. I en situation, hvor vi ikke kan kvantificere risikoen, er det eneste ‘rationelle’ at handle hurtigt og kraftigt for at undgå eksponentiel vækst. At vente er idiotisk...
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@R_o_M
@MiguelDelaney
Seriously, this debate between Mourinho and Pep is pointless to have with Scott. His arguments are counter factual, his use of stats it at best biased, at worst he doesn’t understand them & he keeps neglecting that Mou hasn’t created stability nor hope for better football/results
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@JackPittBrooke
@MiguelDelaney
So you’re giving a ton of other arguments but then leave it all out in your conclusion that is based on 1 (particularly) bad game. Horrendously flawed logic from start to finish. But sure, you are certain to get lots of support from ‘fans’ that cannot remember more than 1w back
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@Harbo_Kristian
@MagnusBarsoe
Enig - i hvert fald er sætningen ‘utallige undersøgelser har vist, at børn i skoler smitter minimalt – til gengæld tager de direkte skade af at gå derhjemme’ i bedste fald usaglig og i værste fald direkte misvisende og skadelig.
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@JorisDv
@cyclingtakes
@ridetoclimb
It clearly says a lot. What did you expect? That one single factor would correlate perfectly with performance? It’s an important factor but only one of many. Point is that Vingegaard’s physical talent is outrageous so his performances *can* also be (but not necessarily)
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@11tegen11
Out of interest, which other games have the opponents created better chances? Spurs, PSG, Palace yesterday, maybe Chelsea...?
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@RasmusBoysen92
An incredible player. But shockingly naiive that the Danish defense let the player who has scored 14 goals have a free shot in the end. Take the free throw, even the 2 min penalty, when there is 3 sec left instead of trying to block the shot. It was clear it was set up for her
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@ELH1978
@ManUnitedYouth
And the point progression is most likely because Utd have added better players. Still no team cohesion or player development. It’s almost impossible to see the positive impact José has had on this team except for attracting better players...
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@the_art_of_7
Would be tragic to not even *try* Amad there before moving on to someone outside of the club (I know that’s not the point of your thread but I felt compelled to show my frustration nonetheless)
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@NielsANielsen
@ffkreiner
@marcusrubin
Jep. Og med reinfektioner følger *større* risiko for senfølger - ikke *mindre*. Farlig vej at gå ned af, hvis man allerede nu har givet op og lukker øjnene for nyere forskning. Vi ville alle ønske, at det var anderledes, men det er virus desværre ligeglad med…
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@AugustLund0
@stinuslindgreen
@PSkipperEL
Når man begynder at sammenligne trafikuheld med Covid-19, ved man, at personen har nul forstand på sandsynlighedsfordelinger, og hvornår det giver mening at sammenligne disse. Inkompetence for fuld udblæsning
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@GianniRivera69
@suneman
@M_B_Petersen
Nej, det er hele pointen. Både
@M_B_Petersen
og
@suneman
forholder sig netop til, at i en situation med enorm usikkerhed, og potentielt enorme konsekvenser (key!), skal man handle nu *netop* fordi vi mangler data/evidens - ikke på trods af. Handling trumfer data under exp. vækst
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@NDJ_Official
People confusing things here. Should Eriksen have reacted quicker and done better? Sure. Does that mean you can go through him whilst pushing in the back and clipping his heels? Of course not. Both things can be true. Clear free kick that the referee missed
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@jimmymcbride1
@jb_8521
The logic disconnect is what bothers me the most about people using this argument. Logically, EVERY player has at some point played at a lover level than where they end up. They are just ready at different stages in they lives depending on several factors...
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@Oliveresuana
Agree with this. Will add, though, that Elanga is more than *just* speed & pressing, he’s a better dribbler (+ speedier) *with* the ball than James, and he has a better left foot. Arguably, his potential is (much) higher than James’ & we can allow him the time to develop. Win/win
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@utdrobbo
Yes, but you mention it as if it’s the *only* logical solution when quite clearly it’s more complicated than that. B/c I’m sure the coaching team has done their thinking about the different scenarios too & not only the twitter geniuses. Ignoring this is, ironically, ignorant.
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@lauriewhitwell
A bit of a weird take. Mostly to keep the negative narrative? The display was fine and the performance created a xGF-xGA of ~2.5-0.5 - same as Arsenal vs. Burnley. Think they will take a lot from that performance & the 3 points & leave the focus on scoreline to the journos…
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@travers7
@MrStephenHowson
And how do you think Giggs became good at dribbling and Ronaldo good at shooting? Did you even watch any of them at that age and the mistakes they made? These arguments against Rashford seriously lack any sort of rigorous thinking and evidence. Cause & effect are misinterpreted
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@K_G_Andersen
@MRC_Outbreak
You could add
4) 2nd order effects are potentially huge
5) the model parameters in e.g. SIR models are extremely sensitive to errors
6) we currently have poor data & use assumptions as a consequence (—> vulnerable to errors)
7) we don’t know lasting effects from recovered cases
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@birthefriism
M. Lundby er bedst bare at ignorere. Intet af det, han siger, har noget med virkeligheden at gøre. Man behøver blot at slå op på s. 1 i en makroøkonomisk grundbog, og du er blevet lige så klog - og så har han desuden gang på gang vist, at han ikke forstår 2.- & 3.-ordens tænkning
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@LibOrdklover
@SineZ15
@SrenKVillemoes
De tal, du refererer til, er betingede punktestimater (jeg ville aldrig bruge punktestimater her). De skalerer ikke lineært med antal smittede.
Her er et dansk studie ift. sammenligningen med influenza ( ) 1/2
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@amonizfootball
@yanitedddszn
We don’t know how that looks like (the ‘dismantling’) so might be prudent to wait with any judgement. What we can say is that of those who are definitely leaving, only Pogba featured heavily under Ole.
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@Busby_UTD
@academyarenaUTD
This. His acceleration is still the craziest I’ve seen at academy level. Unreal recovery speed
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@TelegraphDucker
Nail on head. And football should, for the most part of it, be about joy and entertainment. If not, what’s left? José is sucking the life out of the excitement that’s normally related to big games. When did United last play a good and entertaining game against a bigger side?
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@Carlsbergfondet
@Lone_Frank
@koebenhavns_uni
Klemens Kappel var et fremragende indspark i den nuværende COVID-19 serie - endelig én, der har forstået nogle af de elementære problemer ved den aktuelle krise, og hvorfor mange af de "normale" metoder og tankesæt bør revurderes under de givne forhold.
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@ManUnitedYouth
To think that some people believe that 2 more players will magically transform this team into a swashbuckling attacking side is sad. The issue lies elsewhere...
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@JonasSchwartz75
Helt uenig. Masser af talent i denne gruppe, men en kombination af manglende (permanent) træner, lav selvtillid, dårlig form for flere samt manglende inspiration gør det værre, end det er. Samme trup blev 2’er sidste sæson og kom i EL-finale - og de har tilføjet Sancho og Varane
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@PercyToplis
@mrmujac
Or the state of the tweet that defines that supporting MUFC is about trophies. Sure, let’s continue with a mgr that plays shockingly poor football (w/o any visible improvement), continuously throws players under the bus, puts himself before team (anti-leader) b/c he’s won 2 🏆
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@AdamMcKola
@MrStephenHowson
But ‘giving a MUFC mgr more time’ only makes sense if he progresses on at least one of the following: I) plays entertaining football (incl. risk-taking attitude), II) develops and trusts youth, and III) get results. And yes, progress takes time but no progress at all after 2,5y?
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@LasseTKrogsbll
@me_marco
De hverken viser eller beviser noget som helst. Glem kausalitet, de dér grafer viser ikke engang korrelation. Folk, der drager konklusioner på baggrund af disse, er ‘fooled by randomness’. Men dét er også en disciplin, som CEPOS excellerer inden for
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@johnhea36465547
+ the ‘analysts’ failed (ironically) in their analysis: by focusing solely on Ole’s biggest shortcoming, tactics, they forgot about the attributes that constitutes a good leader: motivating, building culture & confidence, role modeling etc. - i.e football played in the real world
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@TFFUnited
@timlongsports
We don’t know that because none of us are privy to the initial price/valuation versus the buy price. But, for what it’s worth, Simon Stone and Paul Hirst did write that the initial valuation was £90m and the club ended up paying £80m.
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@AbdelBeheri
Great summary. It’s definitely a much more ‘fixable’ situation than when OGS took over. Add to that the ‘natural’ clear out of fringe players this summer (JL, Mata, Jones etc) making it easier to recruit externally + integrate arguably most talented academy group for a decade
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@Stamjaklen
@SrenKVillemoes
Nej, det er en udbredt misforståelse. I denne situaiton, med eksponentiel vækst & et konstant ‘lag’ på ~2u, handler det netop om at handle *før* viden (‘evidens’). Det kræver ingen særlig ny ‘viden’ at undgå smitte: hold afstand, brug værnemidler, vask hænder etc.
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@academyarenaUTD
Also the reason why there’s no reason to sign someone like Lavia. Kobbie has a (much) higher ceiling & whilst he’s behind right now that is only due to experience (+ being 1,5y younger). With a bit more exp., he will be good enough to hold a place as an MUFC CM already in 23/24
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@UtdDistrict
@DuncanCastles
@Record_Sport
Obviously BS:
1) how would Castles know what ETH wants - he’s barely managed the club & has no relationships w/English media
2) would ETH spend his entire budget on 2 players?
3) with Ronaldo still around, would he go for a 1st choice? Without having even assessed current squad?
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@R_o_M
The false narrative here is the idea that it’s just about buying the best players - then the stars will align. Pep has build a team, a system, that makes the individual play better as well - not only the other way around. José hasn’t done this and wouldn’t do it with city as well
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@timlongsports
Also, the main reason this is being discussed is b/c Ole, within 1y, has managed to get to 4 semifinals. Survivorship bias in play: those who don’t even reach a semifinal cannot lose it!
Any other teams from big-5 that reached 4 semifinals the last year outside of Bayern & MUFC?
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@AndyMitten
‘Luck plays a massive part in football’. Such an under appreciated and not fully understood principle for most football watchers. They could take a first step and become much more informed by reading this article - well done Andy
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@LibOrdklover
@SineZ15
@SrenKVillemoes
Myten, der bare nægter at dø: sammenligningen med influenza. Jeg er oprigtig nysgerrig: er det fordi, du ikke har set data, eller fordi du allerede har besluttet dig? For konklusionen er ret klar (de to processer, om end begge er multiplikative, har forskellige egenskaber)
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@Harrishspeaks
@_arabmon3y
@maramperninety
This. Plus, he hasn’t exactly (yet) pulled up trees playing for MUFC. Saying you disagree is one thing, and fair, but saying ‘it makes no sense’ is either not understanding the bigger picture or purposefully complaining about Ole for the sake of complaining
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@JamesMarsh79
@nntaleb
The next interesting aspect would then be to figure out how long they stay in the different groups. Just being in the top 20% of income-earners is almost irrelevant if you are only there for 1% of your life (and if it’s at the end of it!)
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@sampilger
@andersred
He’s also been outplayed by Sevilla twice... but results have been positive in the league, that’s right
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@jb_8521
Said it before: Up there with (& arguably better than) Pogba at the same age (≠ that he will become as good or better than Pogba is now). Balance, awareness, technique, physique... Productivity could be higher but that will come. Prediction: Will get his 1st team debut before 18
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@maramperninety
You would have to be ‘an analyst’ to come to the conclusion that this is about ‘structure’. Anyone living in the real world of football can see that this is related to much more that that. It’s a complete meltdown, structure is the least of this team’s problems (but one of them)
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@Lone_Frank
Øh, what?! Hvad er vigtigst i en situation med enorm usikkerhed og potentielt store omkostninger ved at tage fejl: a) *minimere* risikoen for at tage fejl, imens man venter på ‘evidens’, eller b) blindt *håbe* på lav risiko, imens man venter på ‘evidens’? Naiv empirisme 🤦♂️
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@MartinJuhl2
@StabellBenn
God tråd. Foruden manglen på debat omkring COVID-19 & dets bivirkninger (kort- & langsigtet) bærer debatten også præg af ‘hindsight bias’. En handlings rigtighed kan *kun* vurderes på ex ante viden, ikke ex post. Ex post ‘forudsigelser’ er sjovt nok nemmere end ex ante ditto
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@MrStephenHowson
@Mcugochukwu
They should ask themselves how often people trip themselves running without being touched. Simple thought experiment - almost never happens
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@Heiselberg
@ChristianWolny
Absolut. Processen har ikke været køn (om end man kan argumentere for, at sagen er vanskelig og uden fortilfælde - og nok også vanskeligere end mange gerne vil gøre den til), men der er også en tilbøjelighed til at læse ‘bad intent’ ind i alt, der kommer fra klubben for tiden.
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