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Pinned Tweet
NEW EPISODE
#ScienceInContext
! This week
@SabineLvE
speaks with
@dr_anne_cori
about privilege in academic modelling careers 👇
➡️Did you know it takes a non-native speaker twice as long to read a scientific paper?
One to watch 📺!
🧵1/4
1
3
10
UPDATE:
#Coronavirus
➡more intensive interventions now needed in UK to slow down
#COVID19
spread, reduce pressure on healthcare & protect those most at risk
➡️careful monitoring required when interventions relaxed
🔰Full report:
46
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1K
UPDATE: Report estimates 4000 cases
#coronavirus
#2019nCoV
Our estimate at 4,000 cases is more than double the past estimate due to increase of number of cases outside China. This should not be interpreted as implying the outbreak has doubled in size.
🔰
57
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Your questions on
#CoronaVirus
#2019nCoV
answered:
@neil_ferguson
on estimates, scale of the epidemic, forward projections, the role of modelling in outbreak response, informing governments, interventions, control measures & more
Watch the full video: 🔰
54
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Size of Wuhan outbreak of a novel
#coronavirus
estimated from the three cases detected outside China: Likely to be over 1000 cases.
@imperialcollege
@mrc_outbreaks
report released today
🔰
45
911
815
UPDATE: Transmissibility estimates of
#coronavirus
#2019nCoV
at 2.6
Identification & testing potential cases to be as extensive as permitted by healthcare & testing capacity
🔰
@neil_ferguson
@dr_anne_cori
@SRileyIDD
@MarcBaguelin
@IlariaDorigatti
27
633
718
UPDATE:
#COVID19
sensitivity of international surveillance
➡️Two thirds of cases exported from mainland China are undetected.
🔰Read the full report:
37
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641
UPDATE
#COVID19
new variant VOC202012/01 in England
➡️VOC growing rapidly
➡️Transmission advantage for VOC of 0.4 to 0.7 difference in reproduction number compared to non-VOC variant
➡️VOC affecting a greater proportion of under 20s
👉Report
25
448
551
UPDATE:
#coronavirus
#2019nCoV
Severity
➡️Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1%
➡️Estimated CFR for travellers outside mainland China (mix severe & milder cases) 1%-5%
➡️Estimated CFR for detected cases in Hubei (severe cases) 18%
🔰
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The Mail on Sunday has apologised and removed the online version of an article headlined ‘Will the Covid doom-mongers NEVER admit they’re wrong?’, which contained a number of inaccurate and misleading claims about Imperial research
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UPDATE:
#COVID19
Phylogenetics
➡️Genetic diversity of COVID-19 is consistent with exponential growth, doubling time seven days
➡️Start epidemic estimated early December 2019
Read the full report:
🔰
19
228
304
UPDATE:
#Coronavirus
Europe (11 countries)
➡️1.88% to 11.43% of population infected with
#COVID19
up to 28th March
➡️Interventions have already impacted control of the epidemic
➡️Interventions have saved between 21,000 & 120,000 lives
🔰Report
12
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315
New peer-reviewed publication in
@ScienceTM
on the
#Covid19
epidemic in the UK last year.
▶️23,000 lives could have been saved in first wave if lockdown introduced 1 week earlier
Read more:
12
162
306
For every 2 adults who die due to
#COVID19
, 1 child is left without a family-caregiver.
A global study in
@TheLancet
uncovers the impact of this hidden
#pandemic
– more than 1.5M children worldwide growing up without family-caregivers.
4
128
217
UPDATE:
#Coronavirus
#COVID19
➡️93% take measures to protect themselves from COVID19
➡️71% change behaviour in response to government guidance
➡️44% able to work from home, only 19% of manual and lower grade workers
🔰Full report:
8
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209
NEW REPORT
#COVID19
Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England
➡️Estimates suggest Omicron cases are 15% less likely to attend hospital, and 40% less likely to be hospitalised for a night or more, compared to Delta.
Read the report here 👇
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PUBLICATION:
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
in Vo, Italy
➡️43% asymptomatic infections across 2 surveys
➡️No difference in viral load symptomatic vs asymptomatic infections
➡️Mean serial interval 6.9 days
➡️Lockdown suppressed
#SARSCoV2
transmission
🔰Full report
7
128
203
Great visual representation of the effect of
#SocialDistancing
on the spread of
#COVID19
#CoronaVirus
@SIOUXSIEW
@XTOTL
from
6
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165
UPDATE:
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
➡️Clinical progression varies between cases but the most common presentations are fever and cough followed by fatigue and then, in some cases, pneumonia.
🔰Read full report here:
5
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156
UPDATE:
#Coronavirus
#COVID19
China exiting
#SocialDistancing
➡️Correlation between transmissibility & within-city movement (economic activity proxy)
➡️China’s initial exit from stringent social distancing measures has been successful
🔰Report
@SRileyIDD
13
107
148
UPDATE:
#covid19science
#COVID19
in Brazil:
➡️Percentage infected population 3.3% in São Paulo to 10.6% in Amazonas
➡️54% drop in reproduction number R following interventions
➡️R above 1, epidemic not yet under control
🔰Report
6
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149
This misrepresents Imperial's research and we have requested a correction.
2
35
143
From vaccine development to mathematical models, these (and many more) are the Imperial women contributing to the
#COVID19
#CoronaVirus
Response.
@azraghani
ChristlDonnelly
@dr_anne_cori
4
34
141
UPDATE:
#Coronavirus
Global Burden
➡️38.7 million deaths can be prevented when acting early
➡️
#COVID19
pandemic likely to overwhelm already over-stretched health systems
➡️Rapid adoption of testing, case isolation & social distancing necessary
🔰Report
11
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138
"Herd immunity is not an all or nothing thing...It’s the level of immunity which keeps case numbers at a plateau given a certain number of contacts. So when contacts increase, herd immunity becomes harder to obtain."
@neil_ferguson
speaking in the
@FT
8
57
139
UPDATE:
#Coronavirus
#COVID19
➡️testing important to monitor epidemic
➡️weekly screening of high-risk groups reduces transmission by a third
➡️community testing unlikely to limit transmission more than contact-tracing & symptom-based quarantine
🔰
8
104
134
UPDATE
#COVID19
transmission
➡️3.5% chance of asymptomatic person vs 12.8% for symptomatic person to infect a close contact
➡️Chance of one household member infecting another is significantly higher when exposure is 5+ days vs 5 or less days
👇Report 38
10
86
134
UPDATE:
#COVID19
#CoronaVirus
in Italy:
➡️Reproduction number R <1
➡️No herd immunity reached
➡️20% return to pre-lockdown mobility may lead to resurgence in deaths
➡️Enhanced surveillance needed to reduce risk of resurgence
🔰Report
4
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131
6
46
123
UPDATE
#COVID19
Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR):
➡️1.15% IFR (high income countries)
➡️0.23% IFR (low income countries)
➡️0.1% IFR (under 40 year olds)
➡️5.6% IFR (over 80 year olds)
➡️Risk of COVID19 death doubles every eight years of age
👇Report 34
4
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127
As the world responds to the continued spread of COVID-19, mathematical models are providing vital insights.
Listen to
@azraghani
on this podcast with
@thepragmaticape
to find out more!
@The_MRC
@WHO
2
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Now updated daily!
➡️Our report on European
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
estimates for infections, deaths, reproduction number & projections
🔰Find out more …
@creswapi
@MellanTom
@DrSamirBhatt
@harrisonzhu5080
@flaxter
@axel_gandy
@FabianValka
@github
11
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Eight weeks into
#COVID19
#CoronaVirus
outbreak and the virus is identified, sequenced, and we have PCR and serological assays are in use: unprecedented wealth of knowledge for a new disease. Countries are encouraged to test!
We are eight weeks into this
#COVID19
outbreak: yet we have identified the virus, we have the genetic sequence, PCR & serological assay in use. This wealth of knowledge is unprecedented for a new disease.
#coronavirus
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📢CONGRATULATIONS to
@dr_anne_cori
who has been named as one of the winners of this year’s
#AdamsPrize
🥂🥳
2
24
119
Your questions on
#COVID19
answered, an update:
@neil_ferguson
and professor Christl Donnelly on the current status of the outbreak, non-pharmaceutical interventions and estimates of un-detected cases.
🔰Watch the full video:
8
61
114
UPDATE
#COVID19
Report 46: Brazil
➡️Healthcare pressure and inequities in healthcare capacity across Brazil drive high number of COVID-19 deaths
➡️ Half of Brazil’s COVID-19 deaths in-hospitals could have been avoided
👇Report 46
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Summary 1/8 - Self-sustaining human-to-human transmission of novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) is the only plausible explanation of the scale of the outbreak in Wuhan. We estimate that on average each case infected 2.6 (uncertainty range: 1.5-3.5) other people up to 18th January 2020
2
91
106
UPDATE
#COVID19
in England
➡️3.5% infected people needed hospitalisation
➡️1.3% infected people died (start of first wave), at end first wave IFR reduced to 0.8%
➡️Early lockdown reduces mortality more than extending existing lockdown
👇Report 41
2
61
101
Your questions on
#COVID19
answered, an update:
@neil_ferguson
and
@erikmvolz
on the current status of the outbreak, and genetic diversity of COVID-19 to estimate origin, growth rate and size of the epidemic.
🔰Watch the full video:
6
48
97
Working with
@Microsoft
&
@GitHub
to:
➡️prepare our code to model
#COVID19
control measures for use without extensive training
➡️develop web-based front end for public health policy makers worldwide to use the model in planning
@neil_ferguson
@Imperial_JIDEA
@MRC_Outbreak
I’m conscious that lots of people would like to see and run the pandemic simulation code we are using to model control measures against COVID-19. To explain the background - I wrote the code (thousands of lines of undocumented C) 13+ years ago to model flu pandemics...
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Your questions on
#COVID19
answered:
@neil_ferguson
@IDorigatti
& LucyOkell on the current status of the epidemic, estimated severity in Wuhan, amongst travellers & overall fatality ratio of infections.
Watch the full video:
🔰
6
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94
UPDATE:
#covid19science
#COVID19
South Korea
➡ Epidemic characterised by large clusters of cases
➡ Shincheonji religious group accounted for 48% of cases
➡️High volume of testing & low number of deaths suggests small epidemic
🔰Report
3
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93
There is a risk of a substantial third wave of COVID-19 infections in the UK, driven by the Delta variant.
@neil_ferguson
Read more 👇
57
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Going forward, we will present weekly projections of estimated
#COVID19
#CoronaVirus
deaths and case reporting trends for countries with sustained transmission.
🔰Report for week 7 April 2020:
@sangeeta0312
@PNouvellet
@krisparag1
@neil_ferguson
11
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WEEKLY UPDATE:
#COVID19
#covid19science
➡️Short-term forecasts of COVID-19 deaths in multiple countries
👉Read full report here:
@sangeeta0312
@PNouvellet
@neil_ferguson
@dr_anne_cori
1
24
82
A new pre-print in
@medrxivpreprint
from
@drsamirbhatt
and collaborators finds that if an entire population wore masks in public then
#COVID19
transmission could be reduced by 25%
Read more:
4
47
85
Our laboratories have moved! After almost 20 years at St Mary's Campus,
@MRC_Outbreak
's four labs have now found their home at
@imperialcollege
's White City Campus where they enjoy incredible views!
@fisher_mat
@fisher_lab
@VaccineEpi
@nmrfaria
3
17
83
New R-package 'epidemia' released today!
➡️user-friendly interface
➡️fit local data to epidemiological model
➡️produce R rate & meta analysis for impact of interventions
🔰Find out more
JamesScott
@axel_gandy
@creswapi
@flaxter
@EttieUnwin
@DrSamirBhatt
1
30
81
▶️Elderly people were nearly 3x more likely to die from Covid in care homes than in the community
▶️Only national lockdown brought the R number below 1 consistently
▶️On 2nd December 2020 England was still far from herd immunity, ranging from 7.9% in the SW to 22.5% in London.
3
26
80
UPDATE
#COVID19
Report 49 on growth, population distribution and immune escape of Omicron in England
Download the full report here 👇
🧵(1/3)
12
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NEW WEBSITE launched today for England & Wales:
➡️Estimates for the probability regions will become
#COVID19
‘hotspots’ in the next three weeks
➡️Map out estimates for 334 local authorities
🔰Find out more:
4
46
77
Today in
@TheLancetInfDis
Comprehensive
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
hospitalisation and death rate estimates help countries best prepare as global pandemic unfolds.
Read full article here:
@The_MRC
@MM_HPRU
@Imperial_JIDEA
4
45
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Summary 5/8 - In the absence of antiviral drugs or vaccines, control relies upon the prompt detection and isolation of symptomatic cases. It is unclear at the current time whether this outbreak can be contained within China;
2
41
74
7
39
72
New study by the team published today in
@nature
@nresearchnews
shows lockdown and school closures in Europe may have prevented 3.1 million deaths
#COVID19
#covid19science
3
63
74
Source code for Covid-Sim, simulation used in report 9, is now public: .
We thank
@Microsoft
&
@Github
for their support.
Current priorities mean we can’t offer support, more documentation & examples will be added in coming weeks.
#COVID19
#OpenSource
1
43
74
PRE-PRINT: emerging
#SARSCoV2
variant of concern (VOC) P.1 lineage is growing rapidly in Brazil
➡️More transmissible
➡️More likely to evade protective immunity
➡️Enhanced global genomic surveillance of VOC critical to accelerate pandemic responsiveness
3
49
75
PUBLICATION
@nresearchnews
on transmissibility of
#SARSCoV2
lineage B.1.1.7 in England.
Read the full paper here 👉
2
41
72
Your questions answered - an update:
Professor Neil Ferguson on the current status of the COVID-19 Coronavirus outbreak, case numbers, intervention measures and challenges countries are currently facing.
🔰Watch the full video here:
4
39
71
Our study in Nature today on
#COVID19
in Vo, Italy
A study in Nature found 42.5% of the confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections in Vo', Italy, were asymptomatic. The study also finds no statistically significant difference in the viral load of symptomatic versus asymptomatic infections.
#COVID19
26
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0
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71
MRC Centre researcher Christl Donnelly received her CBE for services to epidemiology and the control of infectious diseases. Congratulations, Christl!
2
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70
@imperialcollege
@WHO
@CDCgov
@CDCGlobal
@ECDC_Outbreaks
@PHE_uk
@dr_anne_cori
@IlariaDorigatti
@neil_ferguson
@SRileyIDD
Summary of report (tweet 1 of 4)
Many aspects of the novel Wuhan coronavirus outbreak are highly uncertain. However, the detection of three cases outside China (two in Thailand, one in Japan) is worrying.
2
31
66
New publication in
@naturecomms
on the Covid-19 epidemic in Damascus, Syria.
➡️The majority of deaths due to Covid-19 are unreported
➡️Estimates show just 1.25% reported at epidemic peak
➡️Could help explain low mortality rates in other regions
1
39
66
In this week’s
#ScienceInContext
@thepragmaticape
speaks to
@ThomRawson
& Dr Natsuko Imai about delaying 2nd dose of
#COVID19
vaccine in 2020/21:
➡️ UK changed strategy to delay 2nd dose
➡️ More people gained good protection from 1 dose
➡️ Likely prevented thousands of deaths
4
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🚨 BREAKING 🚨
"We have therefore made the assessment that
#COVID19
can be characterized as a pandemic"-
@DrTedros
#coronavirus
2K
48K
50K
1
39
62
How deadly is the coronavirus
#COVID19
? Scientists are close to an answer
@nresearchnews
Infection fatality rate explained by Robert Verity
@MRC_Outbreak
and Timothy Russell
@LSHTM
0
30
62
Always wanted to learn about infectious disease modelling?
Applications are now open for our short course introduction to mathematical models of the
#epidemiology
and control of infectious diseases for professionals!
📅7th – 18th September 2020
🔰
0
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@imperialcollege
@WHO
@CDCgov
@CDCGlobal
@ECDC_Outbreaks
@PHE_uk
@dr_anne_cori
@IlariaDorigatti
@neil_ferguson
@SRileyIDD
Summary of report (tweet 4 of 4)
But the magnitude of these numbers suggests that substantial human to human transmission cannot be ruled out. Heightened surveillance, prompt information sharing and enhanced preparedness are recommended.
0
29
57
We celebrate
#ImperialWomen
this week!
Meet
@ZulmaCucunuba
, one of our teams inspiring role models who is a
@The_MRC
research fellow working on the spread of infectious diseases & impact of interventions in Latin America.
👉
1
9
60
@imperialcollege
@WHO
@CDCgov
@CDCGlobal
@ECDC_Outbreaks
@PHE_uk
@dr_anne_cori
@IlariaDorigatti
@neil_ferguson
@SRileyIDD
Summary of report (tweet 3 of 4)
This implies there might have been over 1700 (3 x 574) cases in Wuhan so far. There are many unknowns, meaning the uncertainty range around this estimate goes from 190 cases to over 4000.
0
35
56
Happy
#InternationalWomensDay
!
This week we celebrate
#imperialwomen
with profiles of a few of our inspiring team, showcasing incredible female role models and their contributions.
Read more about Dr Natsuko Imai -
@WHO
liaison
@MRC_Outbreak
👇
0
11
60
CONGRATULATIONS! Celebrating all members of the SPI-M-O group, who were awarded this year’s
@UniofOxford
Weldon Memorial Prize!
The group is recognised for its work supporting the UK’s policy response to the
#COVID19
pandemic
Read more 👇
4
8
29
On
#WorldPolioDay
the team shared their work on faster poliovirus detection with
@BillGates
@trevormundel
& ChrisKarp
#EndPolioNow
#GrandChallenges
0
8
45
Author list (thread 1/2)
@neil_ferguson
DanielLaydon GemmaNedjati-Gilani NatsukoImai
@DrKAinslie
@MarcBaguelin
@sangeeta0312
AdhirathaBoonyasiri
@ZulmaCucunuba
@ginacd1
@amy__dighe
@iDorigatti
HanFu
@mathModInf
WillGreen
4
13
56
UPDATE:
#Coronavirus
#COVID19
➡️New hospital planning tool assesses capacity & impact of strategies to increase capacity
➡️Improves responsiveness of health systems to pandemic
➡️Publicly available, interactive and adaptable
🔰Full report
7
41
56
Prof
@neil_ferguson
spoke to
@BBCr4today
about the trajectory of the UK pandemic.
"We won’t see for several more weeks what the effect of the unlocking is."
📻Listen here [from 2:10:00]
5
30
54
NEW PUBLICATION
@LancetChildAdol
At least 5 million children lost a parent or caregiver due to
#COVID19
since March 2020
Authors urge actions to prioritise affected children, incl. economic strengthening, enhanced community & family support & education
1
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53
We are doing research into the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in response to rollout of real and hypothetical pharmaceutical interventions and are looking for a research associate or assistant to join the team!
🔰Find out more & apply:
#COVID19
#Coronavirus
3
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50
Summary 2/8 - this is based on an analysis combining our past estimates of the size of the outbreak in Wuhan with computational modelling of potential epidemic trajectories. This implies that control measures need to block well over 60% of transmission to be effective.
1
21
52
@imperialcollege
@WHO
@CDCgov
@CDCGlobal
@ECDC_Outbreaks
@PHE_uk
@dr_anne_cori
@IlariaDorigatti
@neil_ferguson
@SRileyIDD
Summary of report (tweet 2 of 4)
We calculate, based on flight and population data, that there is only a 1 in 574 chance that a person infected in Wuhan would travel overseas before they sought medical care.
1
25
51
An independent
#CODECHECK
review
@StephenEglen
confirmed that the Imperial
#COVID19
Report 9 code is reproducible, as scripts and documentation are published
🔰
0
24
52
Summary 8/8 - this includes the identification, testing and isolation of suspected cases with only mild to moderate disease (e.g. influenza-like illness), when logistically feasible.
0
22
52
CONGRATULATIONS
@imperialcollege
for being awarded the Queen’s Anniversary Prize for its response to the
#COVID19
pandemic, singling out the world-class expertise in data modelling & real-time analysis.
4
8
51
In support of better universal access to
#OpenScience
, all 3 report summaries are now available in English, 中文, 日本語, Español, Français and العربية.
🔰
@neil_ferguson
@dr_anne_cori
@MarcBaguelin
@IDorigatti
@SRileyIDD
@ZulmaCucunuba
@imperialcollege
2
28
49
How does infectious disease modelling inform
#CoronaVirus
#2019nCoV
outbreak response?
Your questions answered by prof
@SRileyIDD
and Dr Nimalan Arinaminpathy.
🔰
@imperialcollege
@ImperialSPH
@Imperial_JIDEA
0
29
50
UPDATE:
#COVID19
#CoronaVirus
➡️Repatriation flights from Wuhan provide estimates of prevalence at peak of outbreak (31 January-1 February).
➡️Infection prevalence estimated 0.87%
🔰Read full report here:
4
35
50
NEW EPISODE
#COVID19
science in context
#myCOVID19question
, this week
@SabineLvE
speaks with
@nmrfaria
on:
➡️The pandemic in Brazil
➡️Positive effects of vaccination
➡️Virus strains
"viruses know no borders"
@imperialcollege
@Imperial_JIDEA
@ImperialSPH
Video Edit
@AlistairMB
3
20
49
NEW PUBLICATION
@Nature
on tackling the emerging threat of antifungal resistance to human health
1
19
49
New research in
@NatureComms
finds
#COVID19
antibody levels remain high nine months after infection, and there was no difference between people who had suffered symptoms or not.
Find out more👇
1
25
46
1
19
47
Professor
@neil_ferguson
in speaks with
@bbcnickrobinson
on his early life, scientific advise, lockdown and countering new outbreaks in
@BBCRadio4
podcast political thinking
3
23
48
Thread on false claims on modelling by Imperial college COVID-19 response team explained:
THREAD: You may have seen false claims that Imperial COVID-19 "modelling envisaged Sweden paying a heavy price for its rejection of lockdown, with 40,000 Covid deaths by 1 May and almost 100,000 by June". Our researchers made no such prediction
96
121
288
0
14
49
Summary 3/8 - It is likely, based on the experience of SARS and MERS-CoV, that the number of secondary cases caused by a case of 2019-nCoV is highly variable – with many cases causing no secondary infections, and a few causing many.
2
26
48
UPDATE:
#covid19science
#COVID19
in USA
➡️Initial national average reproduction number R was 2.2
➡️24 states have Rt over 1
➡️Increasing mobility cause resurgence (doubling number of deaths in 8 weeks)
➡️4.1% of people infected nationally
🔰Report
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Author list (thread 2/2)
@arran_hamlet
@WesHinsley
LucyOkell
@SabineLvE
HayleyThompson RobertVerity
@erikmvolz
HaoweiWang YuanrongWang PatrickWalker PeterWinskill
@charliewhittak
ChristlDonnelly
@SRileyIDD
@azraghani
2
9
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Last week
@QAPrizes
celebrated
@imperialcollege
for it's "World-class expertise in data modelling & real-time analysis, supporting a holistic response to
#COVID19
in the UK & internationally"
NatsukoImai
@pabloperguz
@neil_ferguson
joined
@Imp_Prov
at the event.
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APPLICATIONS NOW OPEN for our annual short-course for professionals!
➡️Going virtual in 2021
➡️Scholarships available
➡️Presenters incl. profs
@azraghani
,
@neil_ferguson
,
@VaccineEpi
, Christl Donnelly, Maria-Gloria Basáñez, & Roy Anderson
✏️Find out more
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UPDATE:
#Coronavirus
➡️
#COVID19
pandemic could disrupt bed net distributions & core health services
➡️malaria burden could more than double in 2020 as a result
➡️distribution of long-lasting insecticide treated nets essential to mitigate risk
🔰Report
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NEW PUBLICATION
@ScienceMagazine
#COVID19
➡️76% Manaus population became infected between March-October 2020
➡️29% became infected in São Paulo
➡️Poorly-controlled COVID19 can infect high fraction of population causing high mortality
👇Read more:
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