MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
@MRC_Outbreak
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@WHO Collaborating Centre for infectious disease modelling. Follow us for health analytics, vaccines, genomics & preparedness. Also on @mrc-outbreak.bsky.social
Joined September 2010
NEW EPISODE #ScienceInContext! This week @SabineLvE speaks with @mathModInf about @vaccineimpact, an international community of mathematical modellers.👉High-quality estimates of public health impact of vaccination.👉What is the health impact of the Gavi investment?.🧵1/3
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UPDATE: #Coronavirus. ➡more intensive interventions now needed in UK to slow down #COVID19 spread, reduce pressure on healthcare & protect those most at risk .➡️careful monitoring required when interventions relaxed. 🔰Full report:
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UPDATE: Report estimates 4000 cases #coronavirus #2019nCoV. Our estimate at 4,000 cases is more than double the past estimate due to increase of number of cases outside China. This should not be interpreted as implying the outbreak has doubled in size. 🔰
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Your questions on #CoronaVirus #2019nCoV answered:. @neil_ferguson on estimates, scale of the epidemic, forward projections, the role of modelling in outbreak response, informing governments, interventions, control measures & more. Watch the full video: 🔰
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Size of Wuhan outbreak of a novel #coronavirus estimated from the three cases detected outside China: Likely to be over 1000 cases. @imperialcollege @mrc_outbreaks report released today. 🔰
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UPDATE: Transmissibility estimates of #coronavirus #2019nCoV at 2.6. Identification & testing potential cases to be as extensive as permitted by healthcare & testing capacity. 🔰 @neil_ferguson @dr_anne_cori @SRileyIDD @MarcBaguelin @IlariaDorigatti
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UPDATE: #COVID19 sensitivity of international surveillance. ➡️Two thirds of cases exported from mainland China are undetected. 🔰Read the full report:
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UPDATE #COVID19 new variant VOC202012/01 in England. ➡️VOC growing rapidly.➡️Transmission advantage for VOC of 0.4 to 0.7 difference in reproduction number compared to non-VOC variant.➡️VOC affecting a greater proportion of under 20s. 👉Report
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UPDATE: #coronavirus #2019nCoV Severity. ➡️Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1%.➡️Estimated CFR for travellers outside mainland China (mix severe & milder cases) 1%-5%.➡️Estimated CFR for detected cases in Hubei (severe cases) 18%. 🔰
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The Mail on Sunday has apologised and removed the online version of an article headlined ‘Will the Covid doom-mongers NEVER admit they’re wrong?’, which contained a number of inaccurate and misleading claims about Imperial research
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UPDATE: #COVID19 Phylogenetics. ➡️Genetic diversity of COVID-19 is consistent with exponential growth, doubling time seven days. ➡️Start epidemic estimated early December 2019. Read the full report:.🔰
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UPDATE: #Coronavirus Europe (11 countries) .➡️1.88% to 11.43% of population infected with #COVID19 up to 28th March.➡️Interventions have already impacted control of the epidemic.➡️Interventions have saved between 21,000 & 120,000 lives.🔰Report
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New peer-reviewed publication in @ScienceTM on the #Covid19 epidemic in the UK last year. ▶️23,000 lives could have been saved in first wave if lockdown introduced 1 week earlier . Read more:
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For every 2 adults who die due to #COVID19, 1 child is left without a family-caregiver. A global study in @TheLancet uncovers the impact of this hidden #pandemic – more than 1.5M children worldwide growing up without family-caregivers.
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UPDATE: #Coronavirus #COVID19. ➡️93% take measures to protect themselves from COVID19.➡️71% change behaviour in response to government guidance.➡️44% able to work from home, only 19% of manual and lower grade workers . 🔰Full report:
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NEW REPORT #COVID19 Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England. ➡️Estimates suggest Omicron cases are 15% less likely to attend hospital, and 40% less likely to be hospitalised for a night or more, compared to Delta. Read the report here 👇.
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PUBLICATION: #COVID19 #Coronavirus in Vo, Italy. ➡️43% asymptomatic infections across 2 surveys.➡️No difference in viral load symptomatic vs asymptomatic infections.➡️Mean serial interval 6.9 days.➡️Lockdown suppressed #SARSCoV2 transmission. 🔰Full report
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Great visual representation of the effect of #SocialDistancing on the spread of #COVID19 #CoronaVirus . @SIOUXSIEW @XTOTL from
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UPDATE: #COVID19 #Coronavirus . ➡️Clinical progression varies between cases but the most common presentations are fever and cough followed by fatigue and then, in some cases, pneumonia. 🔰Read full report here:
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UPDATE: #covid19science #COVID19 in Brazil:. ➡️Percentage infected population 3.3% in São Paulo to 10.6% in Amazonas.➡️54% drop in reproduction number R following interventions.➡️R above 1, epidemic not yet under control. 🔰Report
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UPDATE: #Coronavirus #COVID19 China exiting #SocialDistancing. ➡️Correlation between transmissibility & within-city movement (economic activity proxy).➡️China’s initial exit from stringent social distancing measures has been successful. 🔰Report @SRileyIDD
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This misrepresents Imperial's research and we have requested a correction.
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From vaccine development to mathematical models, these (and many more) are the Imperial women contributing to the #COVID19 #CoronaVirus Response. @azraghani ChristlDonnelly @dr_anne_cori
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UPDATE: #Coronavirus Global Burden. ➡️38.7 million deaths can be prevented when acting early .➡️#COVID19 pandemic likely to overwhelm already over-stretched health systems.➡️Rapid adoption of testing, case isolation & social distancing necessary. 🔰Report
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"Herd immunity is not an all or nothing thing. It’s the level of immunity which keeps case numbers at a plateau given a certain number of contacts. So when contacts increase, herd immunity becomes harder to obtain." .@neil_ferguson speaking in the @FT .
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UPDATE: #Coronavirus #COVID19 . ➡️testing important to monitor epidemic.➡️weekly screening of high-risk groups reduces transmission by a third.➡️community testing unlikely to limit transmission more than contact-tracing & symptom-based quarantine. 🔰
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UPDATE #COVID19 transmission. ➡️3.5% chance of asymptomatic person vs 12.8% for symptomatic person to infect a close contact.➡️Chance of one household member infecting another is significantly higher when exposure is 5+ days vs 5 or less days. 👇Report 38
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UPDATE: #COVID19 #CoronaVirus in Italy:. ➡️Reproduction number R <1.➡️No herd immunity reached.➡️20% return to pre-lockdown mobility may lead to resurgence in deaths.➡️Enhanced surveillance needed to reduce risk of resurgence. 🔰Report
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UPDATE #COVID19 Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR):. ➡️1.15% IFR (high income countries) .➡️0.23% IFR (low income countries).➡️0.1% IFR (under 40 year olds).➡️5.6% IFR (over 80 year olds).➡️Risk of COVID19 death doubles every eight years of age. 👇Report 34
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As the world responds to the continued spread of COVID-19, mathematical models are providing vital insights. Listen to @azraghani on this podcast with @thepragmaticape to find out more!. @The_MRC @WHO.
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Now updated daily! . ➡️Our report on European #COVID19 #Coronavirus estimates for infections, deaths, reproduction number & projections. 🔰Find out more . @creswapi @MellanTom @DrSamirBhatt @harrisonzhu5080 @flaxter @axel_gandy @FabianValka @github
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📢CONGRATULATIONS to @dr_anne_cori who has been named as one of the winners of this year’s #AdamsPrize 🥂🥳.
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Eight weeks into #COVID19 #CoronaVirus outbreak and the virus is identified, sequenced, and we have PCR and serological assays are in use: unprecedented wealth of knowledge for a new disease. Countries are encouraged to test!.
We are eight weeks into this #COVID19 outbreak: yet we have identified the virus, we have the genetic sequence, PCR & serological assay in use. This wealth of knowledge is unprecedented for a new disease. #coronavirus
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Your questions on #COVID19 answered, an update:. @neil_ferguson and professor Christl Donnelly on the current status of the outbreak, non-pharmaceutical interventions and estimates of un-detected cases. 🔰Watch the full video:
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UPDATE #COVID19 Report 46: Brazil. ➡️Healthcare pressure and inequities in healthcare capacity across Brazil drive high number of COVID-19 deaths .➡️ Half of Brazil’s COVID-19 deaths in-hospitals could have been avoided. 👇Report 46
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Summary 1/8 - Self-sustaining human-to-human transmission of novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) is the only plausible explanation of the scale of the outbreak in Wuhan. We estimate that on average each case infected 2.6 (uncertainty range: 1.5-3.5) other people up to 18th January 2020.
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UPDATE #COVID19 in England. ➡️3.5% infected people needed hospitalisation .➡️1.3% infected people died (start of first wave), at end first wave IFR reduced to 0.8%.➡️Early lockdown reduces mortality more than extending existing lockdown. 👇Report 41
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Your questions on #COVID19 answered, an update:. @neil_ferguson and @erikmvolz on the current status of the outbreak, and genetic diversity of COVID-19 to estimate origin, growth rate and size of the epidemic. 🔰Watch the full video:
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Working with @Microsoft & @GitHub to:. ➡️prepare our code to model #COVID19 control measures for use without extensive training. ➡️develop web-based front end for public health policy makers worldwide to use the model in planning. @neil_ferguson @Imperial_JIDEA @MRC_Outbreak.
I’m conscious that lots of people would like to see and run the pandemic simulation code we are using to model control measures against COVID-19. To explain the background - I wrote the code (thousands of lines of undocumented C) 13+ years ago to model flu pandemics. .
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Your questions on #COVID19 answered:. @neil_ferguson @IDorigatti & LucyOkell on the current status of the epidemic, estimated severity in Wuhan, amongst travellers & overall fatality ratio of infections. Watch the full video:.🔰
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UPDATE: #covid19science #COVID19 South Korea. ➡ Epidemic characterised by large clusters of cases.➡ Shincheonji religious group accounted for 48% of cases.➡️High volume of testing & low number of deaths suggests small epidemic. 🔰Report
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Going forward, we will present weekly projections of estimated #COVID19 #CoronaVirus deaths and case reporting trends for countries with sustained transmission. 🔰Report for week 7 April 2020: @sangeeta0312 @PNouvellet @krisparag1 @neil_ferguson
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There is a risk of a substantial third wave of COVID-19 infections in the UK, driven by the Delta variant. @neil_ferguson . Read more 👇.
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WEEKLY UPDATE: #COVID19 #covid19science. ➡️Short-term forecasts of COVID-19 deaths in multiple countries. 👉Read full report here: @sangeeta0312 @PNouvellet @neil_ferguson @dr_anne_cori
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A new pre-print in @medrxivpreprint from @drsamirbhatt and collaborators finds that if an entire population wore masks in public then #COVID19 transmission could be reduced by 25%. Read more:
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Our laboratories have moved! After almost 20 years at St Mary's Campus, @MRC_Outbreak's four labs have now found their home at @imperialcollege's White City Campus where they enjoy incredible views!. @fisher_mat @fisher_lab @VaccineEpi @nmrfaria
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New R-package 'epidemia' released today!. ➡️user-friendly interface.➡️fit local data to epidemiological model.➡️produce R rate & meta analysis for impact of interventions. 🔰Find out more JamesScott @axel_gandy @creswapi @flaxter @EttieUnwin @DrSamirBhatt
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UPDATE #COVID19 Report 49 on growth, population distribution and immune escape of Omicron in England. Download the full report here 👇🧵(1/3)
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▶️Elderly people were nearly 3x more likely to die from Covid in care homes than in the community .▶️Only national lockdown brought the R number below 1 consistently .▶️On 2nd December 2020 England was still far from herd immunity, ranging from 7.9% in the SW to 22.5% in London.
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NEW WEBSITE launched today for England & Wales:. ➡️Estimates for the probability regions will become #COVID19 ‘hotspots’ in the next three weeks.➡️Map out estimates for 334 local authorities. 🔰Find out more:
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Summary 5/8 - In the absence of antiviral drugs or vaccines, control relies upon the prompt detection and isolation of symptomatic cases. It is unclear at the current time whether this outbreak can be contained within China;.
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Today in @TheLancetInfDis. Comprehensive #COVID19 #Coronavirus hospitalisation and death rate estimates help countries best prepare as global pandemic unfolds. Read full article here: . @The_MRC @MM_HPRU @Imperial_JIDEA
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New study by the team published today in @nature @nresearchnews shows lockdown and school closures in Europe may have prevented 3.1 million deaths #COVID19 #covid19science.
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Source code for Covid-Sim, simulation used in report 9, is now public: We thank @Microsoft & @Github for their support. Current priorities mean we can’t offer support, more documentation & examples will be added in coming weeks. #COVID19 #OpenSource
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PUBLICATION @nresearchnews on transmissibility of #SARSCoV2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England. Read the full paper here 👉
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PRE-PRINT: emerging #SARSCoV2 variant of concern (VOC) P.1 lineage is growing rapidly in Brazil. ➡️More transmissible.➡️More likely to evade protective immunity.➡️Enhanced global genomic surveillance of VOC critical to accelerate pandemic responsiveness.
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Your questions answered - an update: . Professor Neil Ferguson on the current status of the COVID-19 Coronavirus outbreak, case numbers, intervention measures and challenges countries are currently facing. 🔰Watch the full video here:
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MRC Centre researcher Christl Donnelly received her CBE for services to epidemiology and the control of infectious diseases. Congratulations, Christl!
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@imperialcollege @WHO @CDCgov @CDCGlobal @ECDC_Outbreaks @PHE_uk @dr_anne_cori @IlariaDorigatti @neil_ferguson @SRileyIDD Summary of report (tweet 1 of 4).Many aspects of the novel Wuhan coronavirus outbreak are highly uncertain. However, the detection of three cases outside China (two in Thailand, one in Japan) is worrying.
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New publication in @naturecomms on the Covid-19 epidemic in Damascus, Syria. ➡️The majority of deaths due to Covid-19 are unreported .➡️Estimates show just 1.25% reported at epidemic peak.➡️Could help explain low mortality rates in other regions .
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In this week’s #ScienceInContext @thepragmaticape speaks to @ThomRawson & Dr Natsuko Imai about delaying 2nd dose of #COVID19 vaccine in 2020/21:. ➡️ UK changed strategy to delay 2nd dose . ➡️ More people gained good protection from 1 dose. ➡️ Likely prevented thousands of deaths
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How deadly is the coronavirus #COVID19? Scientists are close to an answer @nresearchnews . Infection fatality rate explained by Robert Verity @MRC_Outbreak and Timothy Russell @LSHTM .
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🚨 BREAKING 🚨. "We have therefore made the assessment that #COVID19 can be characterized as a pandemic"-@DrTedros #coronavirus
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@imperialcollege @WHO @CDCgov @CDCGlobal @ECDC_Outbreaks @PHE_uk @dr_anne_cori @IlariaDorigatti @neil_ferguson @SRileyIDD Summary of report (tweet 4 of 4).But the magnitude of these numbers suggests that substantial human to human transmission cannot be ruled out. Heightened surveillance, prompt information sharing and enhanced preparedness are recommended.
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We celebrate #ImperialWomen this week! . Meet @ZulmaCucunuba, one of our teams inspiring role models who is a @The_MRC research fellow working on the spread of infectious diseases & impact of interventions in Latin America. 👉
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Always wanted to learn about infectious disease modelling?. Applications are now open for our short course introduction to mathematical models of the #epidemiology and control of infectious diseases for professionals!. 📅7th – 18th September 2020 .🔰
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@imperialcollege @WHO @CDCgov @CDCGlobal @ECDC_Outbreaks @PHE_uk @dr_anne_cori @IlariaDorigatti @neil_ferguson @SRileyIDD Summary of report (tweet 3 of 4) .This implies there might have been over 1700 (3 x 574) cases in Wuhan so far. There are many unknowns, meaning the uncertainty range around this estimate goes from 190 cases to over 4000.
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CONGRATULATIONS! Celebrating all members of the SPI-M-O group, who were awarded this year’s @UniofOxford Weldon Memorial Prize! . The group is recognised for its work supporting the UK’s policy response to the #COVID19 pandemic. Read more 👇.
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Happy #InternationalWomensDay! . This week we celebrate #imperialwomen with profiles of a few of our inspiring team, showcasing incredible female role models and their contributions. Read more about Dr Natsuko Imai - @WHO liaison @MRC_Outbreak .👇.
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On #WorldPolioDay the team shared their work on faster poliovirus detection with @BillGates @trevormundel & ChrisKarp . #EndPolioNow #GrandChallenges
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UPDATE: #Coronavirus #COVID19. ➡️New hospital planning tool assesses capacity & impact of strategies to increase capacity.➡️Improves responsiveness of health systems to pandemic.➡️Publicly available, interactive and adaptable. 🔰Full report
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Author list (thread 1/2). @neil_ferguson DanielLaydon GemmaNedjati-Gilani NatsukoImai @DrKAinslie @MarcBaguelin @sangeeta0312 AdhirathaBoonyasiri @ZulmaCucunuba @ginacd1 @amy__dighe @iDorigatti HanFu @mathModInf WillGreen.
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Prof @neil_ferguson spoke to @BBCr4today about the trajectory of the UK pandemic. "We won’t see for several more weeks what the effect of the unlocking is.". 📻Listen here [from 2:10:00].
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NEW EPISODE #ScienceInContext This week @SabineLvE speaks with prof @ThomasChurcher about the recent World Malaria report, #malaria control interventions, modelling and bed nets 👇.@imperialcollege @malarianomoreuk
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We are doing research into the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in response to rollout of real and hypothetical pharmaceutical interventions and are looking for a research associate or assistant to join the team!. 🔰Find out more & apply: #COVID19 #Coronavirus
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An independent #CODECHECK review @StephenEglen confirmed that the Imperial #COVID19 Report 9 code is reproducible, as scripts and documentation are published. 🔰
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@imperialcollege @WHO @CDCgov @CDCGlobal @ECDC_Outbreaks @PHE_uk @dr_anne_cori @IlariaDorigatti @neil_ferguson @SRileyIDD Summary of report (tweet 2 of 4).We calculate, based on flight and population data, that there is only a 1 in 574 chance that a person infected in Wuhan would travel overseas before they sought medical care.
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Summary 2/8 - this is based on an analysis combining our past estimates of the size of the outbreak in Wuhan with computational modelling of potential epidemic trajectories. This implies that control measures need to block well over 60% of transmission to be effective.
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NEW PUBLICATION @LancetChildAdol . At least 5 million children lost a parent or caregiver due to #COVID19 since March 2020. Authors urge actions to prioritise affected children, incl. economic strengthening, enhanced community & family support & education.
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CONGRATULATIONS @imperialcollege for being awarded the Queen’s Anniversary Prize for its response to the #COVID19 pandemic, singling out the world-class expertise in data modelling & real-time analysis.
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How does infectious disease modelling inform #CoronaVirus #2019nCoV outbreak response? . Your questions answered by prof @SRileyIDD and Dr Nimalan Arinaminpathy. 🔰 @imperialcollege @ImperialSPH @Imperial_JIDEA
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Summary 8/8 - this includes the identification, testing and isolation of suspected cases with only mild to moderate disease (e.g. influenza-like illness), when logistically feasible.
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In support of better universal access to #OpenScience, all 3 report summaries are now available in English, 中文, 日本語, Español, Français and العربية. 🔰 @neil_ferguson @dr_anne_cori @MarcBaguelin @IDorigatti @SRileyIDD @ZulmaCucunuba @imperialcollege
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Author list (thread 2/2). @arran_hamlet @WesHinsley LucyOkell @SabineLvE HayleyThompson RobertVerity @erikmvolz HaoweiWang YuanrongWang PatrickWalker PeterWinskill @charliewhittak ChristlDonnelly @SRileyIDD @azraghani.
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Summary 3/8 - It is likely, based on the experience of SARS and MERS-CoV, that the number of secondary cases caused by a case of 2019-nCoV is highly variable – with many cases causing no secondary infections, and a few causing many.
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NEW PUBLICATION @Nature on tackling the emerging threat of antifungal resistance to human health.
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UPDATE: #COVID19 #CoronaVirus . ➡️Repatriation flights from Wuhan provide estimates of prevalence at peak of outbreak (31 January-1 February). ➡️Infection prevalence estimated 0.87%. 🔰Read full report here:
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Thread on false claims on modelling by Imperial college COVID-19 response team explained:.
THREAD: You may have seen false claims that Imperial COVID-19 "modelling envisaged Sweden paying a heavy price for its rejection of lockdown, with 40,000 Covid deaths by 1 May and almost 100,000 by June". Our researchers made no such prediction.
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New research in @NatureComms finds #COVID19 antibody levels remain high nine months after infection, and there was no difference between people who had suffered symptoms or not. Find out more👇.
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UPDATE: #covid19science #COVID19 in USA. ➡️Initial national average reproduction number R was 2.2.➡️24 states have Rt over 1.➡️Increasing mobility cause resurgence (doubling number of deaths in 8 weeks).➡️4.1% of people infected nationally . 🔰Report
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Professor @neil_ferguson in speaks with @bbcnickrobinson on his early life, scientific advise, lockdown and countering new outbreaks in @BBCRadio4 podcast political thinking.
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Last week @QAPrizes celebrated @imperialcollege for it's "World-class expertise in data modelling & real-time analysis, supporting a holistic response to #COVID19 in the UK & internationally". NatsukoImai @pabloperguz @neil_ferguson joined @Imp_Prov at the event.
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APPLICATIONS NOW OPEN for our annual short-course for professionals!. ➡️Going virtual in 2021.➡️Scholarships available.➡️Presenters incl. profs @azraghani, @neil_ferguson, @VaccineEpi, Christl Donnelly, Maria-Gloria Basáñez, & Roy Anderson. ✏️Find out more
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NEW EPISODE #COVID19 science in context #myCOVID19question, this week @SabineLvE speaks with @nmrfaria on:. ➡️The pandemic in Brazil.➡️Positive effects of vaccination.➡️Virus strains. "viruses know no borders". @imperialcollege @Imperial_JIDEA @ImperialSPH.Video Edit @AlistairMB
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Always wanted to learn about mathematical modelling, epidemiology & control of infectious diseases? . ✏️Only a few more spots available on our September SHORT COURSE in London 🇬🇧 . Find out more & sign up here 👇
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