๐๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐๐ฒ๐ฉ๐
@EffMktHype
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Macro musings not financial advice. If bonds are my bread & butter, stocks & fx are the ice cream. Everyone loves ice-cream bread once they try it.
Yo Mamma's / Singapore
Joined August 2018
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
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Pinned Tweet
Beep beep trade bonds boop.
If you've come here to find my threads on things like the BBB series, backtesting or random macro musings, they are compiled into Moments and added below for easy referencing.
Enjoy and remember kids, "Embrace the carry and ignore the fat left tail."
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From the campus to the streets, we will have Uber Eats
Reporter grills Columbia student after she demands the university help feed protestors occupying Hamilton Hall:
"It seems like you're saying, 'we want to be revolutionaries, we want to take over this building, now would you please bring us some food'."
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@Jason
Oh princess
YOU SHOULD BE ABSOLUTELY TERRIFIED RIGHT NOW โ THAT IS THE PROPER REACTION TO A BANK RUN & CONTAGION
@POTUS
&
@SecYellen
MUST GET ON TV TOMORROW AND GUARANTEE ALL DEPOSITS UP TO $10M OR THIS WILL SPIRAL INTO CHAOS
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๐ฆ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐ท ๐ก๐ธ๐ด๐ธ๐ผ ๐๐ฎ๐ฝ ๐๐ช๐ฒ๐ต๐ฎ๐ - Part 1
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Congrats to the rockstar who bought TSLA at 1794.99 today.
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Dizz Trusst makes the UK bad with a GILT trip
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Back to more important matters
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Now THAT is a fucking ratio
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I like my wine like my bonds
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El Risitas tells us why a certain corner of the crypto market is saying "algofuckmyself"
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Raiders Of The Lost ARKK
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Welcome to Bond Basics with Bloomberg series (BBB). This is the main thread that will slowly build with each new topic I cover. Each topic will be its own mini-thread which will then be linked via retweet to this main thread. That way we'll have an organised series of chapters!
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oh cool just a 3sigma reaction to a regular CPI print
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With 2 weeks to the Dec22 FOMC here's your hyperspeed recap of the Fed's monpol so far
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"Chair Powell, I have two questions. When you said 'JUST CLOSE THE FUCKING DOOR' did you have any discussion as to the pace of closing the fucking door? And my second question is, was closing of the fucking door a unanimous opinion amongst the board? Thank you."
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Everything reminds me of her
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๐๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐๐ฒ๐ฉ๐
10 months
Bonds breaking will break equities until equities breaking saves bonds
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An absolute MUST READ on Bloom today about the private credit market. In a nutshell
- ppl invest because there's no trade so pricess don't move (artifically low vol)
- marks in funds are all over the place
- private funds mark higher than regular mutual funds who own the same
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The reason why I bring up the neutral rate is because I think the market is actively debating it without realizing it or explicitly saying so.
Much of the consternation around Fed pricing right now is how many cuts is appropriate this year, but that implies that cuts themselves
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*NORWAY'S SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND LOST $174B IN 1H
i know what this means but it reads like they're a degen
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Beatings will continue until Dalio says cash is king
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Today's one of those days we have to balance the objectivity of our jobs with the humanity of the events. We can be joyful at making money from the safety of our desks but tactful enough to respect those hiding in fear underneath theirs.
Have a dood day, I hope tmr is better.
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Taking the day off today, so just gonna revise some bond basics. Been toying with doing a series on Bond Basics with Bloomberg as a running thread. Thoughts?
Anyway, ever wondered how Bloomberg calculates the Cheapest to Deliver bonds for a futures contract?
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So many bbg screenshots of CS CDS levels and talking about massive default prob numbers. Zero people actually using same terminal to look at default risk screen...
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RIP CARL
1929 - 2023
Loving Husband. Adventurer. Balloon Enthusiast.
Mercilessly killed by a F-22 while admiring the Southern California coastline.
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Have Fun Staying Par.
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๐ฆ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐ท ๐ก๐ธ๐ด๐ธ๐ผ ๐๐ฎ๐ฝ ๐๐ช๐ฒ๐ต๐ฎ๐ - Part 2
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Feels like shit is about to break. Everywhere. The scariest part is that I don't know why.
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My pal is getting old and his legs don't work anymore but a bit of fresh air and greenery and he's 100% in spirit. โค๏ธ
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What you guys need to realize is that every bond manager out there is currently looking at long end yields and thinking of when to buy, not when to sell.
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"...Fuck"
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El Risitas goes shopping at Blood Bath and Beyond
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Give me strength
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One of those weekends
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Sir Bullard and The Search for The Holy Intermeeting Hike
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Pour one out for my homie Russ
*PERMA BEAR RUSSELL CLARK TO SHUT HIS HEDGE FUND
top.
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2-month stock prodigies managing money for their friends and family today
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Dear Charlie,
It's not that everything is quiet now that you're gone, it's that my world sounds different.
The ambient hums that ping around the house now meet your empty bed,
And I don't like life's new song percussioned by the absence of you.
My ears drag my eyes to some
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look at him, that's my quant. my quantitative
my math specialist
look at him, you notice anything different about him?
look at his face
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*POWELL: CAPACITY OF ECONOMY MOVED UP PERHAPS MORE THAN OUTPUT
is he saying what i think he's saying?
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*PERMA BEAR RUSSELL CLARK TO SHUT HIS HEDGE FUND
top.
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Not kidding, this is the entire statement from the BOJ today. lmao
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New watch. I'm calling it The Mandalorian.
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Are we even surprised anymore?
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1 year on, still miss you buddy.
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@alexandersblume
@NeriOxman
There is nothing more important in my life right now; we have an amazing team at Pershing Square; we have come a long way since I was a key man; we are a long term owner so we donโt make many decisions a year; and I work mostly on weekends, vacations, and evenings on my long
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*DID YOU HEAR EMH TURNED HIS BBB SERIES INTO A BOOK?
And it's free! Now you can learn how AND why you lose money trading bonds! \('o')/
You can grab it at 3 places:
1. Z-library:
2. Docdroid:
3.
@Macrodesiac
:
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45k followers. 500+ likes.
Calls the 5-year note a fucking T-bill.
1/2 MY GOODNESS was the 5yr UST-bill auction today an utter DISASTER. What do I mean? Well... MASSIVE tail + huge fall-off in indirect demand = D- grade. And, to think,
@SecYellen
still has around $2tn left to issue, and China is talking about SELLING UST bonds.
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๐ซ ๐พ๐ค๐ข๐ข๐ช๐ฃ๐๐ฉ๐ฎ ๐๐ค๐ฉ๐๐จ: ๐๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ด ๐ด๐ฉ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ญ๐ฅ ๐ฌ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ธ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ข๐ต ๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ฎ๐ข๐ต๐ฉ ๐ณ๐ถ๐จ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ญ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ช๐ฏ๐ท๐ฆ๐ด๐ต๐ฐ๐ณ๐ด ๐ข๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐ธ๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ฏ ๐ฒ๐ถ๐ฆ๐ด๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ข๐ฃ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ต ๐ช๐ต, ๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฐ๐ค๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฅ๐ด ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ท๐ช๐ค๐ต๐ช๐ฎ ๐ฃ๐ญ๐ข๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ฎ.
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Waiting to change my profile pic once 10s hit 4%
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I was hedging ok
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*GERMAN 30-YEAR YIELD FALLS BELOW ZERO PERCENT FOR FIRST TIME
what a time to be alive
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When the mcdonalds kid asks if I 'want fries with that?'
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I've seen things you traders wouldn't believe... Reds on fire off the shoulder of Black Monday... I watched Golds glitter in the dark near an intermeeting cut. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain... Time to die.
๐ชฆRIP EDs. 1981 - 2023
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๐๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐๐ฒ๐ฉ๐
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GS:
"It has long held that lower equity markets yield higher implied volatility (VIX) and higher equity markets yield lower implied volatility (VIX)
the last 10 sessions have broken that โstandardโ to a degree not seen in 30+ years"
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Breaking news: CEO of major pharmaceutical company tells the world they're in danger and that he's working on a new drug to keep them safe.
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You keep using the word "Cuts", I do not think It means what you think it means
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As promised, a thread on my approach to building a rules-based model. There's no perfect way, you won't get a blueprint of what I do, just how I approach a systematic trading model. I hope this provides some value in constructing a strategy, rules-based or not!
Let's go!
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We're moving 50pts a day on ES easily.
We're moving 8bps a day on 10Y easily.
And it's starting to be normal with little chatter.
When incrementalism normalises the previously chaotic, that's how true cataclysms are created.
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๐๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐๐ฒ๐ฉ๐
10 months
US10s swapped back to yen yield ~0.056% currently. So you can start to see why allowing JGB10s to rise above 0.5% starts to become an attractive proposition for japanese bondholders and a negative flow dynamic for ROW
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When my analyst replaces "2023" with "2024" on all my recession outlooks
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Probably a good time to show you guys the last 4 hiking cycles and SPX overlaid... ๐
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Bloodbath in HK stocks right now. HSI through 20k
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When newsletter writers launch an actual fund
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The BBB Series, Topic 5: Credit, Part 2 โ Credit Risk
Today we'll learn ways to quantify credit risk, namely through various spreads that are often quoted, what they measure, how/when to apply them and their differences. This is the backbone of credit analysis. Letโs begin.
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I was holding my 2yr old daughter on a walk moments ago and for the first time out of nowhere she said
โThat motherfucker is not realโ
I started to tear up. She couldnโt see my face and I didnโt make a sound, but she said
โJust strip out food, energy, shelter and carsโ
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so much for the long end doing the tightening for them.
From GS:
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Day 1 taking my 5 sharpe strat out of the backtest and putting it into production
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Credit spreads
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๐
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"Mr. Powell I saw an overlay of the fed balance sheet against stonks, I mean stocks, and the balance sheet has plateaued and doesn't that imply tha- "
"Have you seen where the NASDAQ is? Little shit."
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LOL IBKR just raised margins on oil derivatives by 15%
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CTA Supply. GS systematic strats team estimates that $40B worth of S&P was sold over the last 5 days, which is the fastest 5 day sell / unwind in our dataset.
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Rates PMs
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The BBB Series โ Topic 4: Futures & Options โ Part 1: Introduction to Bond Futures
Interest rates futures extend from short term (money market futs) out to longer dated rates such as US treasuries, German bunds, Italian BTPs, Australian Govt bonds, etc
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We're probably gonna look back and think the last 6 weeks was kinda stupid, huh
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$UBS and FINMA puts a 'No' between $CS' CoConuts
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Who would have thought that everything that was a factor driving yields up before ackman tweeted still matters 2 days later. Shocking really.
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For those that are unaware - you can register an account with Moody's for free and get daily reports from them on credit, market outlooks, macro topics, etc.
It's a decent way to get institutional-type market reports that every now and then have some interesting points.
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Stealing this for the next time I disappoint my wife
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"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel"
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The funny thing about this chart that went around last week is that no one mentioned how the market keeps UNDERestimating how much the Fed hikes once the hiking cycle starts and the same when cuts come in - BofA's insane call for 7 this year notwithstanding.
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The BBB Series โ Topic 7: Part 1 โ Introducing Interest Rate Swaps
Today's focus is on the mechanics of swaps, mainly interest rate swaps. The objective is an understanding of what's being quoted and why. It'll be intense but the key will be developing an intuition for the mkt.
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The BBB Series โ Topic 5: Credit. Part 1 โ Introduction, Trade terms and Bond Structures
Letโs start by defining some terms that get thrown around in bondtwit. Bonds are just any fixed income instruments but corporate bonds are generally what we mean by โcreditโ.
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This meltdown in China/HK stocks is eye watering.
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PSA: pretty much all of Asia has stopped working as of 15 minutes ago. Have fun trading if you're so inclined
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Just waiting for the BOJ's sudden abandonment of YCC causing a cascading eruption of cross asset volatility and Oct '87 redux
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HEY HEY WAKE UP. IF YOU READ THIS FAR LIKE THIS TWEET TO PROVE IT.
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@wmcintyre84
@tiltwave
I didnโt inflict any losses. Stop being a victim, the world will pass you by.
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Everyone in 10 mins time
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the 75k block SOFR buyer right now
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