Dave Dulio
@DaveDulio
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@oaklandu | Distinguished Prof of Political Science | Dir., @OU_CCE | follow along for some political analysis and occasional hot takes | reposts≠endorsements
Michigan
Joined January 2022
If the @chargers had a bye this week, I'd swear @CoachJim4UM went as a ref for #Halloween and snuck into the Texas / Vandy game.
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This seems like the next step in both sides of the spectrum going farther to the extremes. If the bigger factions of the parties follow it could be what @DrewPavlou describes, or maybe it's the point at which more Americans say, "I'm done with you both, we need another option"
Zohran has the most energy and momentum on the American left and Fuentes has the most energy and momentum on the American right. This is potentially the future of American politics. Just Zohran v Fuentes forever. Absolute fucking nightmare.
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I’m sure @midwestern_ope agrees
If it were March, we'd all be in shorts and T-shirts out there! 50s will continue in the short to mid term, so enjoy it while you can!
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Fun tool to explore possible redistricting outcomes. TL; DR--If both parties get their best case scenario: GOP is +4. If both parties get their worst case : GOP is +3. Other combinations are likely, but in the end all of this will prob result in just a few extra GOP seats.
🔓CPR’s new interactive Redistricting Map is in front of the paywall! You can explore our estimates of how many congressional seats each party could potentially gain in states where redistricting is underway or may still occur. Check it out here: https://t.co/fYhMV2VFdp
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The president's party does poorly in midterms; it's a historical fact. One of the reasons is🔽 turnout (vs the prez yr) among his voters. If Dems remain frustrated & angry at these levels and don't show up, the GOP might be able to buck the historical trend. #ALongWayToGo
More signs of Democratic gloom from @pewresearch. Only 29% of Democrats say their party makes them feel proud, 50% feel hopeful. In 2019 (Trump 1), 41% felt proud, 67% hopeful. https://t.co/zkUPJdnLny
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I'm re-reading The Civility Book by @NolanFinleyDN & @SHDetroit in prep for the class I'm teaching in January at @oaklandu's Donna & Walt Young Honors College on the Foundations of Civil Discourse. Read the whole book; but all elected officials should read this passage.
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This is a great piece that unpacks many elements of our system. We have always relied on courts to settle disputes about constitutional & statutory language. They are doing that today & will continue to do so. And, if Congress wants to reign in the prez, they can. Worth the read
"The Supreme Court could force Congress’s hand on executive discretion" (@TheHillOpinion)
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New data from @Gallup demonstrates the problem for candidates like @mikeeduggan. "62% say a third party is needed, but only 15% would be "very likely" to vote for a third-party candidate." https://t.co/n2HjuxO1Oh
“It turns out that no matter where you go in this state, people are angry at both parties,” Duggan told Playbook. https://t.co/2G6JqqZAFm
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Few care about understanding politics and instead chase the methodologies that will get them in APSR
I remain gobsmacked by how much of academic political science involves extremely mediocre analytical techniques dressed up in fancy language and Greek symbols.
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I can guess what @JCBanfield would say about this "celly"
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Moderators keeping the candidates on their toes with questions about working with faith-based orgs, economic development and everything in between. #Pontiac
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Check out the #Pontiac debate between Mike McGuinnes and Kermit Williams on the Ascend Foundation’s website
youtube.com
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Great turnout for a mayoral debate in #Pontiac tonight. As emcee Tom Kimble said, “this is democracy in action.”
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I'd like to get @CristianCantir's take on the impact of this.
Despite Russian meddling, Moldova’s pro-Europe party wins a majority. Russia’s social media campaign fell short. Read:
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.@acaseofthegolf1 ... I hate to ask....anyone you know?😱
Up North, Michigan State police say an Alpena man was busted by undercover officers with nearly 1 pound of cocaine.
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An on-the-money analysis from @MichaelJReitz. It's👌to have a different opinion...it really is! it doesn't mean the other person is the devil. America needs more opportunities for constructive disagreement. We need our leaders to model this and not worry so much about their base
"A sad reality in American culture right now is that we’re uncomfortable with disagreement. We encounter a differing opinion, and our instincts are to avoid, dismiss or demonize the other person." https://t.co/F8vmoaxdCm
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Lansing rn: Basically it's like 'hey we can have a partial government shutdown' OR 'we can pass a budget before 12:01a.' And, instead, someone else IN POWER was like: BUT WHAT IF THERE IS A THIRD WAY WE'VE NEVER TRIED BEFORE.
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Is this legal? Serious question. Maybe she's saying that state employees have to show up without funding in place? Everyone knows that employees will be made whole after this is over, but can govt force people to work without funding? Or are they all essential now?
Important detail here: This message from the governor to state workers indicates the budget will approved in the "coming days."
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The game theory of a filibuster-shutdown under unified government: you will be forced to take vote after vote that would immediately end the shutdown if you relent. Not great for Dems.
Senate GOP's shutdown voting plan, per Barrasso: Vote on Tuesday + Wednesday before sundown, break for Yom Kippur Return Friday, vote through the weekend Senate will be voting on the same House-passed CR through Nov. 21
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When is the last time Lansing was this tight-lipped? On one hand, it'd be nice to know what the sticking points r & what direction things r headed, but on the other, I guess kudos to the leaders 4 not letting things leak which would surely start fights and ⏬ the odds of a deal🤷♂️
Michigan Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Sarah Anthony says the committee is going at ease until “who knows.”
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