George Robertson
@BickerinBrattle
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Expert in fixed income, equity, and derivatives of both. Started at "Liars Poker" Salomon, last job as head of long duration (US Treasurys) for Morgan Stanley.
NYC
Joined February 2018
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Using stochastics to consider credit spreads signals the rally in equity will continue. ARCH anyone?
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@palazzo214
@eyokley
@LeaderMcConnell
this seems to be lost on most. I think McConnel upped the ante from "mere" impeachment" to now Title 18 ss2384 Seditious Conspiracy - think RICO can be used then. I am fairly certain this is a valid charge and Trump faces 5 to 10 years in a fed pen if so
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something 4 sigma happened Thur 13th and then 14th was all JPM earnings.
The CPI set the stage where if there were any ability for the Fed to have been tightening or slowing econ would have been apparent.
But then a leak of JPM earnings or common sense took over anticipating JPM
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@trekkiebill
@ntinatzouvala
Always found it interesting how one can confuse, at first, the pictures of John Brown with the early beardless pictures of Abraham Lincoln. Then I think that John Brown was the real Lincoln. Or Lincoln had to become John Brown.
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ok back to my lane.
SP500 will have an extraordinary rally as reality is grudgingly or shockingly realized. I feel comfortable that given the magnitude of the fiscal force, and the absence of any countervailing monetary or Congressional governance, we will see 5000 by Dec.
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help me especially if you disagree - only the thoughtful please - by commenting and quote repost with that disagreement. no problem with compliments, again please quote repost.
Thank you Jack, considering the folks on your show, highly complimented!
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man, this year is gonna be wild - out of control fiscal spend, US stronger and more "risk free" than ever, a crazed contested election likely, a Fed that has erased itself in terms of efficacy, and the size and monstrosity of this economic expansion just starting to dawn on folks
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as if WWII wasnt enough - US ion covid has proven that the US can produce as much funds as it wants. "It wants" is only a political question not one of economics. "It wants" in WWII was am emergency which allowed POTUS to get whatever wanted once Congress declared WWII an…
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here is my guesses:
1) a major firm/hedge fund is going under
2) a military strike that may end up involving the US has occurred or is about to
3) Michele Smith had Powell call Dimon et al that he about to tighten
4) jobs number leaked and it is large jump up in NFP
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Equities are the only practical hedge for inflation:
•Stocks are nominal assets as all inputs and outputs for valuataion are nominal.
•Profit margins but for a small number of names are expanded by inflation
• demand is increased via inflation as consumers move to a spot…
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would anybody be interested in my group putting on a series of X Spaces to go over the 4 or 5 items I just went over with
@jackfarley
?
If enough interest we will do this.
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The "opposition" to Trump is pretty well moved into sedition, extra legal, rude, and illegal. Certainly not Democratic. Bizarre the amount of vitriol and attacks Trump has received.
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ok closing in on 4700 - only need another 300 points more (has already done 500 points in a month or so) and I will get my 5000 and will become insufferable! you better hope it stops at 4900.
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OK, I give up on trying to make a buck on my follows and I have been doing this too long to find any ego enhancement or prestige. So will just go on stating , as I see it, the major issues and do all I can to back it with data. So:
1. The vast majority of folks you follow and…
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Fed has jammed credit to where BB is about 20% rich in value. While obvious strong arming has closed spread while Fed buys credit ETFs, the default risk has, if anything, gotten worse.
@lisaabramowicz1
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Here is my price prediction. If the ETF is approved:
$80,000 : $130,000 : $750,000 : $0
If ETF not approved:
$30,000 : $20,000 : $10:000 : $0.
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Forget the Fed, it died a decade ago by choice - concentrate all on Congress here on.
an event bigger than 1929 is in store but first we have to trip down the 1920s
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That Andy spent this time is highest compliment yet since I set out in this sphere. It means I should repay the compliment respect with the very best I can muster I'm digesting. I will do so. Right away I note two thoughts. 1) risk free rate and US Treasurys were much the…
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the dog died, left behind with the divorce, but when one gets older it is remembered how sad it is, how important. They bring out the best in us, find a common denominator of good with all they touch and then reflect it back. RIP Scout.
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From an undisclosed location, Burlington over the left shoulder, seeing the total eclipse tomorrow. Got a jump on the horde.
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@whstancil
you mean 350,000 white men who laid down their lives to eliminate slavery. would have been 0 lives if the 290,000 who died to promote and maintain slavery didnt fight, betraying their nation and for most officers of those men, their sacred oath.
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You should start to get it. The US is midst one of the strongest economic expansion since WW II. There is no Fed counter, no tightening. There is no organized tightening fiscal from Congress. We are about to find out the innate limits to US economic growth. 35 tril NGDP?
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If you are serious about financial markets, the day starts at 4:00 AM. If serious about commodities, it never ends. If serious about gold, it never begins.
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Think I just masterly explained why the US Treasury 10y is going to 6%, that this reflects why NGDP is here to stay for a bit longer, why US equity is about to go up about 30% or so, and why debt ceiling and massive debt issuance of US government is really a non event.
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Well a 5% rally by 12 31 23 is doable. Yes unlikely but doable, just for fun. 4750 ain't 5000 but I know no one with a reasonable rational structural view that anticipated such levels. I am satisfied with my contribution to the public square of fintwit 23.
4750/3800= 25%.
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The only surge in the US is FEMA Covid funds sent to hospitals. But before they can receive funds they must find Covid. So now, everyone for any reason in a hospital receives a Covid test. Since 60% of US previously infected means Covid is found. Over and over. It is a scam.
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there we go 5000
all my calls still stand 6000 SP500 and 6% US Treasury 10 year
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folks been doing this for 40 years, 30 of it running large chunks of money in equity equity derivs, fixed income derivs and fixed income. i have lost so much money that matches the cost of 50 Wharton MBA, yet have career earnings above 10% pa and sharp over 1. I can snidely…
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we are in the midst in one of the US strongest economies in recent history. Amazed folks refuse to deal with this.
Atl Fed GDPNow combined with Cleveland Inflation Nowcasting.
US 4th Q looking like 10% nominal 4 1/4% real.
stocks are priced for negative real.
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Now we know what Friday was all about. Clear Dimon was briefed and designated spokesman.
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Trust me, do not judge me on style and delivery. Everything I say has massive amount of work behind it. Have nothing else to do now. I have little formal education or certification, no PhD. All I do is based on hours and hours and hours of self education and is well qualified
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will state it again. everything is in place to have a significant move towards 5500 in SP500. Then 6000
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I have greatest faith in Andy - he is one of the best traders and derivatives guys that there is.
Andy - this is it:
you are not looking at the risk free curve
you do not realize the Fed is dead
there is nothing to stop equity to come into full synch with US NGDP
supply of US…
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Glitch is better analysis compared to 95% of the stuff I have heard here
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i do suspect a monstrous panic to own large cap stalwart US equity, avoiding tech
something similar to nifty fifty of 1987 pre crash
and it will be a panic of the entire world to own these US names
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I have been right since covid in all areas about labor and NGDP and even the SP500. My views are based on analysis I know very few others are doing. I provide to the best of my ability facts and analysis. Yet am basically ignored. I am not piqued, just confused.
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Always remember where you heard S&P 500 at 5000. And also when you first heard S&P 500 at 6000. Remember who first stated US Treas 10 years will reach 6%. Until I think other wise seeing obvious flows to indicate otherwise, I will hang my hat on that.
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for now over a 8 quarters I have been ridiculed, ignored, or blocked. Yet for 8 quarters I have been right, not because of brilliance but because I use current data and ignore the Fed forward guidance and forward monitoring.
i think almost all cannot afford to do what I do.
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I suspect this ends with US in Black Sea in weeks so as to shut down Russia-Iran axis as Israel attacks Iran. I suspect the seriousness of this situation is not being understood.
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in many ways US started subscribing to MMT economics under the cloak of Covid, and few have noticed.
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this is called fiscal dominance and indicates private sector funded start of the Minsky speculative phase. Fed aint showing up as H8 lags
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this market will take off soon - ready for a 10% t0 20% gain. I have observed every economic indicator that was actual and current indicate the US is in a massive economic boom. only diffusion indicators, sentiments, and Fed bearish factors, and that mostly Fed
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Powell will do exactly what Biden direct him to do in terms of when first cut comes and then by how much.
Biden needs a steady climb in SP500 to reach 5800 by October.
Powell, being the most political Chair since Burns in the most political Fed ever, will obey.
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dont you guys get it? there will be no BTC ETF, Gensler is destroying these guys. US is midstride banning crypto. BTC and crypto is an attack on the state and though state is a wee bit slow to get it, it does get it eventually. dont think crypto has an army.
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Unless a very large excitement event happens - like 3 trillion large event - there is nothing to stop this nominal GDP growth. That no one seems to be considering this is very strange. The Fed has no traction now, not have they throughout 2022 or even 2021. The most blood will
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We think the SP500 is about 20% to 30% cheap, and has nothing to do with NVDA or AI (they are a distraction if not a red herring). SP500 will see 6000 this year.
A massive market distraction has occurred , perhaps the largest mass economic error formed by Fed forward guidance.
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credit markets, my read, anticipating a significant rally in equity.
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95% of the time the US economy is growing, times faster than other but growing. if a coin landed 95% on heads, how would you bet?
yet all babble on and on as if the coin was 50/50.
I dont get it.
this error - hell call it a fallacy - will sooner or later show up with a massive…
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this economy will land, like that impact rocket sent to crash into an asteroid, but not this year and likely not next. for when there is no Fed and no budget discipline in Congress then this economy is wilding and will continue to do so until it cashes brutally. Minsky.
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this chart also shows how near useless it is to call for a recession or a monetary "cycle" given there are really only 3 data points since 1982. and an argument can be made 2008 was an exogenous shock, and 2020 obviously was an exogenous shock. so makes only 2 data points
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Until AI can compose Beethoven's 10th or paint the lost masterpiece of Goya or the lost folio of Shakespeare lost tragedies or extend the poems of Yeats by 20 - I do not consider AI to exist. It is but enhanced search engine with advanced Word grammer and spell check.
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"Something Happened" My read of the last two extraordinary trading days . Long chain.
@TheStalwart
@boes_
@dampedspring
@PMehrling
@M_C_Klein
@michaelxpettis
@pdacosta
something 4 sigma happened Thur 13th and then 14th was all JPM earnings.
The CPI set the stage where if there were any ability for the Fed to have been tightening or slowing econ would have been apparent.
But then a leak of JPM earnings or common sense took over anticipating JPM
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The complete remedy for inflation is % for % deflation which is of course a catastrophe. That is why all inflation is permanent and can only not rise as fast going forward. In that manner 'disinflation' is a silly phrase. In the same way any increase in fiscal impulse is…
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there is no f**king way I should be making so much money - in many ways is more unnerving than the days of loss. the only difference is when lost money could understand my understanding was still intact. the up day should confirm my understanding in pleasant way but doesnt
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it is pretty amazing that this is not even noticed by pretty well the entire community of economic analysts, pundits and media
really bizarre
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If this market trips, either up or down - I think up - will be a carastrophic move at time with a 50/50 ineffective Congress and a non existent Fed. It is going to get very very strange.
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seems I have been the only one to call this market "right" since 2022.
now what?
gotta think on that....
suspect it is all about Dr. Minsky.
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are you aware US NGDP QIII nominal was 8.9% has it even dawned on you how incredible that is?
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Went through everything, again and again and again, and here is where we are.
There is not one monetary or economic metric/series that indicates that since April 2020 there is any monetary impulse ease or, lately, tightening.
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to negotiate with Putin is like trying to discuss the noise level with the crack house next door. cant be done
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@profplum99
the problem isnt MMT - MMT is as close to truth as economics comes - it is Pacioli/Riacardo reality - it is what folks want to do with MMT which becomes the problem. the funding required for every US war, and now for covid, is proof of the axiomatic nature of MMT
@wbmosler
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4800 plus how about that do I get accolades if the 5000 call is hit 30 to 40 days after year end 2023?
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i work hard to collect my thoughts and do as rigorous analysis as ever last 40 years. of course I can be mistaken but rather confident given my Gladwell 10,000 hours over years. i am keen to be corrected but please do it noting the data. i have no interest with opinion.…
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Better take credit now, seems my views on CPI, SP500, and Fed inability/irrelevant played out very well. Only 3 days, but what the heck.
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That many are starting to think US Treasurys and equity will always have a positive correlation, both being partners in inane phrase 'risk on, risk off' trading, shows to what level the Fed has corrupted or destroyed proce discovery. I am afraid this Fed will bring us to knees.
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Why are you following me? Because was the only one right in 2023? Why would more follow me? Because may repeat that in 2024? While folks say I confuse and dissemble really am most clear and basic just requires one to shed the Fed to understand. We will pick up the Fed again.
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Should be kept in mind that SP500 is only a few ricks above the 2021 high, yet NGDP has expanded an additional 3 trillion since that point. Throughout 2022 and parts of 2023 the markets latched onto a monetary cycle meme that expected the opposite.
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If I am shown to be right with 6000 SP500, requires many econ reports like today's CPI to make it. Today's CPI print of the more bullish inputs for US equity. It is great news. Pretty sure in a few days SP500 proves me right.
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BTC can only end in a fight to the death with the US state. any other conclusion is impossible. so who do you think wins, the US state or BTC? only one can exist, in the end.
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this has got to be the largest economic expansion in recent deacdes and yet it has the majority of folks refusing to even recognize the expansion. and some are even perceiving a recession ongoing.
it is nuts.
NGDP has been up 4.5 trillion from covid 22 trillion, or up 6.12% pa
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Terrific and necessary guidance help from
@dampedspring
. It is very important if I am to make sense to understand the three stages of Minsky, his concluding Ponzi stage and then what a Minsky Moment is all about.
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One of the strongest and harshest rallies in SP 500 is imminent. As in 2022 around this time prior And after JPM QI earnings, Dimon is again doing all he can to bring equity markets down. Beats me why, perhaps he fears a bubble developing in JPM stock?
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Boy can I be wrong. I work hard on this stuff. As much as I ever had when some thought fit to pay me alot. Havent figured out why I carry on - maybe some upcoming changes will make that effort sensible.
But for now - well I never did - have time or patience for twits.
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as long as super majority of folks on fintwit continue to throw a bearish analysis upon every market move and every econ series data, SP500 will continue to go up and up and US Treasury 10 year yield will continue to go up and up.
this is the very best technical indicator.
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ok agree with me or dont but realize that this is the most incredible market in last 40 years (for as long as I had direct experience ) with massive political forces, screaming panicked Fed, dumbfounded analysts.
respect it.
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Sorta stupid now to make a call with assigning an objective to SP500. From here on, SP500 is a digital either up to levels most can't comprehend, now, or we plummet to 3000 or so. The entire US stock market is a digital. Me? I think up up up to sickeningly high levels.
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that Citadel runs the books for about 90% of all the options in Chicago is not a call for FTC and anti trust - not to mention SEC, I dont know what is.
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The most bullish econ data for equity was today's CPI data.
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the higher US Treasury 10 year goes, the higher US equities will rally. when it is realized that this is axiomatic, equity will violently soar.
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@dampedspring
see you soon
by the way noted the slight uncalled. we disagree at times but your sincerity always obvious and you are making available 40 years of experience. thank you
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if you are a wee bit confused in how equity could be/has been rallying despite all the chat about Fed tightening and monetary cycle bearishness and ,..... catch my Space tomorrow at 11:00 EST. my read is it is obvious why and where confused is why isnt SP500 already at 5000?
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Hugh remember the 5000 call and how you laughed and laughed. does that mean you dont know what is going on and I might know what is going on? hows the ghost in the machine, the Masonic plot to rule the world via Eurodollars going? oh, there arent euodollars now sigh
This is a great discussion
➡️
@hendry_hugh
on China: "It all comes back to the dragon's ass" 😂
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Mr Market I promise to not be an insufferable ass and chortle and say gleeful insulting things if the SP500 were to suddenly spring up to new recent highs despite the recent new highs in US Treasury 10 years. I will behave!!!!
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risk manager just called and asked why isnt lawn mowed yet. I said it is about Fed time. response was that I have stated over and over how the Fed is irrelevant so get my ass out to mow the lawn. sigh
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Just reminder that Jan 23 my call was 6% US Treasury 10 years and 5000 on SP500. SP500 was well below 4000 then and 10y below 4%. Now SP500 is at 4200 area and US Treasury 10y headed to be over 5%. I have been very successful so far and see no reason to change my call.
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Rather impressive.
BREAKING NEWS: Argentina achieved a balanced budget in January for the first time in over a decade.
President
@JMilei
achieved it without congressional action by freezing spending at 2023 levels, cutting many agency budgets by over 50% in real terms.
632
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35K
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this will be her achilles heel as indicates she doesnt understand Chartalism which is the main pillar to her ideas on fiscal dominance - which I agree. but her thesis all falls apart when she extends it to internationalism and anti-state core value of crypto
The brilliant Lyn Alden, renowned for her razor-sharp financial analyses will be a key speaker at
#BitcoinAtlantis
. Her expertise will light the way for
#bitcoin
enthusiasts! 💡
Welcome,
@LynAldenContact
! 🧡
🎟
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been saying same thing for a year now. sorry to be boring.
1. Fed is dead
2. everything is now the fiscal impulse; fiscal dominance
3. USTreasury rates will rise, by QI 23 said 10y to 6%, said that when UST was around 3%
4. SP500 to go up 30% and since said that up 13%, QI 23…
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