Rajan Menon
@rajan_menon_
Followers
5,889
Following
385
Media
41
Statuses
6,635
Director, Grand Strategy Program, Defense Priorities; Spitzer Prof of Internat Rels, Emeritus, CCNY; Saltzman Inst., Columbia U. My views. RT not endorsement.
Manhattan, NY
Joined January 2022
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Rio Grande do Sul
• 460541 Tweets
Galatasaray
• 135056 Tweets
Al Jazeera
• 116906 Tweets
Bernard Hill
• 99285 Tweets
Vlad
• 94511 Tweets
#GSvSVS
• 81253 Tweets
Spurs
• 68615 Tweets
Tottenham
• 66452 Tweets
سعد اللذيذ
• 54249 Tweets
BBL Drizzy
• 51735 Tweets
Theoden
• 51227 Tweets
Orlando
• 37182 Tweets
Happy Cinco de Mayo
• 36841 Tweets
Ziyech
• 36493 Tweets
Cavs
• 34261 Tweets
Mertens
• 33543 Tweets
Menotti
• 30964 Tweets
Garland
• 23103 Tweets
Paolo
• 21264 Tweets
Sivas
• 20860 Tweets
Tim Scott
• 20363 Tweets
Bülent Uygun
• 16774 Tweets
Emerson
• 15581 Tweets
Franz
• 14916 Tweets
Gakpo
• 14799 Tweets
Arda Kardeşler
• 12085 Tweets
Icardi
• 11220 Tweets
توتنهام
• 10513 Tweets
1/ Thoughts on Bakhmut: i) When Ukraine opted to stay & fight, prominent Western military pundits were quick to call it a blunder; ii) UKR has certainly suffered steep losses, so, undeniably, has Russia, which has nevertheless failed to take the town—despite 11 mos. of effort.
17
111
818
4/ v) Senior UKR commanders, esp. Gen. Zaluzhnyi & Syrsyki, aren’t infallible (who is?), but they’ve shown repeatedly that they know a thing or two about war, esp. against RUS. Humility requires that outside experts realize that Z & S know more than they do—and always will.
7
48
678
Even IF Israel’s military campaign kills every single major leader of Hamas & its military wing, the Qassem Brigades, the massive, continuing civilian deaths in Gaza ensure that heartbreak & the desire for vengeance will create an even bigger reservoir for recruiting militants.
134
109
678
Do you remember the days when “humanitarian intervention” (the rationale for the campaign that has left Libya in violence and chaos for over a decade) and the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) were all the rage? Where are its zealous proponents now, amidst the carnage in Gaza?
23
139
444
1/11 Thoughts following the Prigozhin drama: A British acquaintance wrote to ask what I made of it—now that the dust has settled, or seems to have. My response: Begin by considering what occurred in the abstract—i.e., by leaving out all proper names.
16
118
483
1/4 🧵Many see Avdiivka’s fall as proof that Russia’s superiority in firepower & troops has turned the tide against Ukraine. RUS has made some gains west of Avdiivka, but on other fronts (Krynky, Rabotyne, Bakhmut, Kupiansk) RUS losses have been high & offensives unsuccessful.
9
81
472
1/23 The UKR-RUS war: Year 2023: Long 🧵:
i) Despite an vast advantage in firepower (eg: ~5:1 heavy self-propelled howitzers and nearly 7:1 in MLRS and drones) RUS’s net territorial gain in 2023 was all of ~100 miles by late fall and losses substantial—a poor showing
16
82
432
2/ ii) If UKR had w/d, it would have had to defend another place further west—that too have led to casualties; iii) RUS has advanced deep into the Bakhmut, but UKR has kept key supply roads (that run to Bakhmut via Chasiv Yar & Ivanivske) open &, to that end, defended Khromove;
5
18
401
3/ iv) More importantly, UKR has begun what could be a pincer movement from the southwest of Bakhmut toward Klishchiivka & Kurdyumivka, which could head to Opytne and (by no means certainly) encircle RUS troops, esp. if another pincer is opened from the northwest of Bakhmut;
2
22
376
1/3 PUTTING THE UKR WAR IN PERSPECTIVE:
The headline re Ukraine now is that its counteroffensive failed. What this obscures is that Russia, w/ a vast advantage in every index of military power, hasn’t been a roaring success. It’s barely taken any territory in 2023 (net: 200 mls)
11
51
301
Flack Macron is getting for meeting with Putin is bizarre. He has consulted with Ukraine, US, Germany beforehand. Will also meet Zelensky. Blinken can go to Moscow, but the president of a major European country should not? Everything must be choreographed in DC?
11
62
291
@aricfedida
With respect, your comparison is misplaced—and in more ways than one. For example: The U.S. did not occupy Japan on an open-ended basis nor appropriate and settle its land.
21
8
273
4/4 When Russian weakness and problems are acknowledged, this school of thought minimizes their significance or asserts that they will be fixed—something they conspicuously do not do when it comes to Ukraine’s problems.
5
16
267
@Teoyaomiquu
@Rebel44CZ
I wonder how Mr Musk thinks this killing of “kids” began and who was responsible and how many Russian kids Ukraine has killed as opposed to the other way around. How can someone who’s supposedly so brilliant in some area be so utterly obtuse on this topic?
26
23
266
1/7 A recent
@nytimes
piece described withering RUS attacks against the bridgehead UKR marines have created at Krynky, on the left (RUS-held) bank of the Dnipro, ~20 mls. upstream from Kherson. Russian attacks on Krynky have certainly been intense and UKR has paid a steep price.
9
39
262
3/4 What they fail to do, however, is to account for the stunning magnitude of Russian casualties & equipment losses and Ukraine’s staying power two-plus years into a war that just about everyone believed Russia would win quickly.
5
17
262
1/3 HAMAS’s killings of Israeli civilians was an atrocity: period. A horrific video from Sderot alone makes that clear. Yet Israel’s decision to deny all Gaza residents the basics needed to survive is ethically & legally indefensible b/c it’s indiscriminate collective punishment.
18
48
248
11/ Then ask yourself if, by any reasonable standard, any strongman’s performance during such a crisis would merit accolades—or whether the fact that it was even allowed to occur would tarnish his image, no matter what his public relations crew will proclaim, far and wide.
8
14
236
7/ But the NYT hasn’t provided a balanced account. The intensity of the RUS reaction to UKR’s moves in Krynky and the losses RUS has suffered in countering them show that there’s another side to the Krynky saga.
4
17
240
This recent BBC documentary centering on a group of Ukrainian soldiers in the Kupiansk sector, who agreed to wear body-cams, is unrivaled for portraying what day-to-day life is like for UKR soldiers in combat. (Some scenes maybe a bit disturbing.)
6
58
230
Given Russia’s lackluster military performance against a much weaker Ukraine, a Russian GDP 15% that of the EU,and Sweden and Finland likely to enter NATO, what exactly is the reason Europe cannot eventually achieve autonomy in defense?
33
42
219
9/ The strongman’s spinmeisters paint the denouement of this drama as an example of his calm and skill. But that’s rather like putting lipstick on a pig: The damage done to his invincible aura is undeniable.
2
15
198
.
@Newsweek
“Poland's President Believes Trump Could End Ukraine War in 24 Hours.”
I can do the same. Just ask Putin how much of Ukraine he’d like to have and by when. Nothing to it.
9
25
200
Question for President Biden: Why send your Secretary of State all the way to
#China
to reestablish a dialog with China and then immediately call
#XiJinping
as a “dictator,” thereby undermining (judging from Beijing’’s irate reaction) what little
#Blinken
may have accomplished?
26
49
195
3/ Finally, recall that a parade of pundits has been predicting that UKR would be decimated—starting literally the day after the invasion.
Does this mean UKR will win? I have no idea. But please, let’s have some perspective on a war Russia was expected to win handily.
8
14
198
Dmitry Medvedev: Once the 4 regions of occupied UKR are formally annexed to UKR, no Russian leader, present or future, will be able to surrender any part of them. (I think he’s right.) That pretty much dashes hopes (ill-founded to begin with) for a diplomatic solution.
14
38
185
2/4 Many assessments stress that superiority in numbers ensures that the Russian army will prove impossible for Ukraine to stop and that Ukraine is headed for defeat—soon. They also dwell on Ukraine’s various problems (which certainly exist).
1
7
187
5/ The
@nytimes
story depicted UKR’s Krynky operation as a suicide mission. Yet RUS losses at Krynky have been substantial—and have gotten Moscow’s attention. RUS has relocated armor & infantry units from battle zones in the east, such as Avdiivka, to the Krynky front.
1
14
174
1/4 “Who Lost Bakhmut,” blame game revving up in Russia. There are 3 contending narratives: i) Prigozhin: Valiant Wagner Company fighter shed their blood, only to die in vain b/c Def Min Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Gerasimov deprived them of ammunition & flank support;
9
23
172
8/ In the end, the warlord, having denounced system that made him fabulously wealthy as corrupt, and a major war it is waging as fraudulent, receives, per the terms of the deal, an amnesty and exile in the mediating president’s country. The treason charge? Magically rescinded.
3
7
166
Russia can’t possible be pleased that the meeting convened in Jeddah by Saudi Arabia—and which China attended but that did not include RUS—to discuss ending the war in Ukraine reached a consensus that any settlement must be based on UKR’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
3
29
164
2/ Despite massing forces west of the Svatove-Kreminna line with the aim of taking Kupiansk and then Kharkiv, it has failed to make headway. Plus RUS has suffered huge losses in its effort to encircle Avdiivka, to the point that RUS is now denying it seeks to take the town!
3
12
163
2/ There’s a country run by a leader who seeks to project strength and control at every turn. Suddenly, a warlord, who owes everything to the leader’s patronage, drives into one of its major southern cities unopposed, accompanied by heavily-armed fighters.
2
10
155
1/ Thrust of this
@politico
piece is that golden opportunities were missed to reach a negotiated settlement w/ RUS, above all in November, by which time UKR had retaken Kharkiv province & right bank Kherson, & could have bargained holding a strong hand.
31
51
158
4/ Plus, on Friday, UKR downed three RUS Sukhoi-34s, likely w/ US Patriot air defense missiles that had been moved to right-bank (UKR-controlled) Dnipro, in an effort to counter the deadly RUS glide bomb attacks.
2
10
154
10/ What remains unclear is how serious the damage will prove to be and what, if any, political consequences will flow from it. Now, forget for a moment that all of this happened in Russia recently, over the course of a couple of days.
2
4
148
4/ To stop the armed revolt, the all-powerful leader calls in a second warlord, against whose people he once waged a brutal war. All the while, the country’s much-vaunted army and fearsome security services seem to be at sea.
1
6
149
RUS invasion doesn’t mean NATO expansion (esp. opening the door to UKR and GA) was ever a good idea. The assumption that RUS wouldn’t see it as a threat or that it wouldn’t matter if it did was ludicrous. Opportunities to prevent what has now happened were missed.
19
31
148
3/ UKR forces on the Dnipro’s right-bank across from Krinsky occupy high ground. They’ve used that advantage to train tank and artillery fire at RUS tanks, IFVs, & infantry units. UKR’s defense of Krynky has also used drones to spot and target RUS units and equipment.
1
9
150
In a leaked memo an American general reportedly said his “gut” told him the US and China would be at war in 2025. We’re now making policy on matters of life and death matter based on “gut” feelings?
29
25
147
7/ That crisis, mind you, led the governor of the province in which the southern city is located to order its residents to stay indoors for safety. And it reportedly prompted panic buying in the country’s capital and the escape of some of its fat cats in their private jets.
1
5
142
12/ vi) UKR, with no navy to speak of, essentially made it impossible for the RUS Black Sea Fleet to operate in, and certainly to dominate, the Black Sea and attack places like Mikolaiv & Odesa, or even to launch Kalibr missiles at UKR cities freely. RUS has been forced to move
11
14
146
The debate on who will win the war in Ukraine continues. Meanwhile, maybe those who’ve been confidently predicting UKR’s rapid defeat from the very first day of the war might explain why that hasn’t happen, even though more than two years have elapsed.
10
25
148
3/ He and his retinue take control of that city’s streets and then travel northward, up a major highway toward the country’s capital, through another city and into a nearby province. Highways to the capital are closed in part. The city goes into high alert
1
6
142
2/ RUS has, for example, used SU-34 fighter-bombers to release glide bombs from afar against Krynky, as well as tanks, IFVs, artillery, & TOS-1 thermobaric rocket launchers. But—and this is the key point—it’s not a one-way fight, which is how
@nytimes
paints it.
2
10
142
6/ So, is UKR certain to push south from Krynky toward Crimea, esp b/c RUS lacks the heavy fortifications in that sector that it does in Zaporizhzhia (one reason UKR’s Zap. counteroffensive didn’t achieve a breakthrough)? Certainly not. UKR faces big obstacles at Krynky.
1
8
142
This doom-and-gloom
@politico
story (based on anonymous sources) on Ukraine’s military situation may owe to infighting btwn current & former UKR officials than to battlefield
trends. Russians gains have been slow and not large. And they’ve been costly.
8
28
139
5/ The strongman denounces the offending warlord for fomenting rebellion, even revolution, against the state and denounces him as a traitor. The county’s intelligence service has by then already formally charges the rebel with treason.
1
4
134
6/ The drama ends when the president of a neighboring country, a supplicant to the strongman, parachutes in and negotiates a deal that defuses the crisis.
1
4
132
2/for the world’s 2d-most powerful military.
ii) UKR’s counteroffensive (CF), hyped by UKR and the US, albeit for different reasons, didn’t achieve much. But it could never have. The southern front, the focus of the CF, is largely flat.
3
8
137
8/ huge losses in Avdiivka—many more RUS tanks and IFVs and artillery were destroyed than were the UKR equivalents. And the endless RUS human waves attacks led to the death of many, many RUS soldiers. Again, not an impressive showing.
3
14
135
3/Bottom line: Did NATO increase U’s vulnerability by leaving it in limbo and also lead U to not seriously consider neutrality (one of Russia’s terms) in advance of the war by insisting the door was still open, when in fact it had no intention to admit U anytime soon?
17
29
120
3/ Such terrain makes advancing UKR armored & mechanized forces extremely vulnerable to artillery, air strikes (helicopters and fixed wing aircraft), and drones. Plus RUS had mined the area thoroughly, built layered defense lines (the “Surovikin lines”) & had air superiority.
3
8
128
5/ But how could they have done that? The front line is 600-mile long & large RUS forces were attacking other parts of it: eg, Lyman Pershy toward Kupiansk (Kharkiv province), Avdiivka (Donetsk province) plus the areas around Bakhmut.
2
12
126
1/14 Recent analyses of the war in Ukraine, even in top magazines such
@ForeignAffairs
, contain debatable claims. Below are four examples: 🧵
5
42
124
2/ ii) Shoigu and Gerasimov: Prigozhin’s forces abandoned Bakhmut, fearing encirclement, rather than stand and fight heroically. They betrayed Russia.
3/ Putin (unspoken narrative): I have a country to run & delegate military matters to the Def Min & the generals.
1
7
124
9/ iv) UKR troops on the frontlines are worn out: they’ve been fighting virtually non-stop since Feb 2022 and have barely seen their families. UKR has to muster 500k fresh troops. That will be hard & the shenanigans people are using to avoid military service have to be stopped.
2
12
125
@PhillipsPOBrien
The fact that Ukraine lacks the equipment it needs to overcome the Russian fortifications is missing from his argument, and the claim that they could not have been overcome even if it did have that equipment is an assertion, not an argument based on evidence.
4
9
123
1/8 On the current debate re cluster munitions (CMs). Yes, CMs kill & maim civilians—beyond doubt. But have all of those outraged by the Biden admin’s decision to send CMs to UKR also condemned Russia’s wanton targeting of civilians w/ various weapons & extensive use of mines?
9
21
122
4/ And the RUS advantage in drones made UKR’s US-supplied mine-clearing equipment vulnerable. UKR has been blamed for not concentrating the vast majority of its forces one one axis in the south
1
8
122
6/UKR also had far fewer drones + barely any air support to cover their advance. Plus RUS had made big investments in drones & drone jamming tech. by June. The CF turned out as I expected, w/ some gains south of Velika Novosilka (southern Donetsk province) & Orikhiv (Zaporizhia).
1
9
122
4/ Surely you’ve noticed that I’ve stayed in the background and have not been out in public micromanaging wartime decisions. That’s not the president’s job.
0
4
117
11/ RUS simply has a much deeper recruitment pool than UKR given the massive population disparity But as the as the casualties mount, getting RUS contract soldiers to re-up will become harder. So wait to see if Putin does order a mass mobilization after the March election.
2
10
118
The “Putin’s real fear is Ukraine democracy” claim is an excuse to sidestep Russia’s security concerns. Those will have to be addressed in order to avert war. A reasoned discussion can be had about how and to what extent—but not if the “it’s all about democracy” line prevails.
7
21
111
@scepticAli
I in no way defend the killing of civilians on Oct 7. It was, pure and simple, an atrocity. The question though is whether the massive campaign in Gaza,which has left thousands of civilians dead, many buried under rubble, is informed by any strategy or end game.
17
1
115
7/ iii) On the other hand, RUS has been trying to take Avdiivka for 3 months at least. Yet despite some progress (using a pincer attack from Vodiane in the south & Krasnohorivka in the north) & massive superiority in armor, artillery, missiles, drones, and troops, RUS sustained
1
8
113
.
@BernieSanders
explains his no vote on the aid bill:
“We are now in the absurd situation where Israel is using U.S. military assistance to block the delivery of U.S. humanitarian aid to Palestinians. If that is not crazy, I don’t know what is.
1/2
5
37
112
10/ v) Putin is leery about ordering another mass mobilization (when he did that in Sept 2002, at least 300k men of military age fled). But RUS has been able to lure ex-soldiers to sign military contracts by paying hefty salaries, bonuses, and death benefits (to families).
2
10
109
1/1 The US sold Saudi Arabia over $37 billion in arms since 2016 alone. Now SA wants a security guarantee in addition, despite having a huge arsenal of American weapons. A guarantee against what threat precisely? What would be the gain for US? The downsides are readily apparent.
15
25
106
1/ No reasonable person can fault the Israeli government (and I find nothing to admire in this particular one) for retaliating after Hamas murdered and abducted many of its citizens. No government, anywhere, which had the means to respond, would—and could—have done otherwise.
7
36
103
The 316-94 approval in the House to bring the aid bill (which contains $60.8 for Ukraine, about $41 of it military-related assistance) up for vote all but ensures its passage. Notably, the step to advance the bill for a floor vote was backed by a majority of House Republicans.
5
29
103
1/ Mitch McConnell’s statement today that Trump’s opposition has made a deal on the border essentially impossible means that that further aid to Ukraine is also all but impossible because it’s linked to the border in one bill.
15
18
102
This story is stunning. Were it not published in a newspaper with the reputation of El Pais, I’d have dismissed it as made up.
4
49
100
1/3 Russia’s govt has given regional authorities targets to induce ex-soldiers to sign contracts for wartime service. The national target: 400k contract troops. Clearly an effort by Putin to avoid mass mobilization. The last time he did (9/22) ~300k mil-age men fled Russia.
3
25
102
1/20 Thread on trip to Donbas, including Bakhmut, where I was within three miles of the frontline. I saw many places that have been in the news during this war, either because they’ve been the scenes of major battles and/or have been shelled by Russia extensively
5
31
99
Re the reports that Biden admin has urged Ukraine to stop attacks on Russian refineries: Not only is Ukraine waging a war of self defense—and now under difficult circumstances given that it’s running low on Western arms—it’s not using Western weapons to strike the refineries.
13
14
97
1/3 Further to the Hirsh story in
@politico
: There are two separate issues to keep in mind when reading it: 1) Anybody calling the shots in DC or Kyiv knows UKR isn’t in a position to go on the offensive now: it needs to mobilize 500k men and additional US aid is uncertain.
10
14
99
1/There’s been much discussion re why the “global south” hasn’t rallied behind the West’s call to condemn Russia for illegally invading Ukraine & violating the “rules-based international order.” One reason:the West has hardly been consistent in upholding that order. An example:
7
38
98
@HoansSolo
@ChristopherJM
Active defense is not a strategy the West is trying to push on Ukraine. It’s a concept Ukrainians military experts are quite familiar with—indeed one that some of the best of them have written about and advocated. Eg:
@MBielieskov
. See his piece below.
3
21
98
Indiana University (Bloomington) has suspended Abdulkader Sinno, associate professor of political science and Middle Eastern studies. Sinno helped arrange an event at which
@mikopeled
, an IDF vet, peace activist, and critic of Israeli policy spoke on Nov 16.
4
57
97
1/ Some thoughts on the increasing calls for talks toward a political settlement in
#Ukraine
—ones based on laudable motives: eg, ending the death and destruction, avoiding escalation. Here are some problems with the pleas for a negotiated settlement:
6
36
95
Whether or not one agrees with all of it, this essay by
@minna_alander
and her coauthor is worth reading—especially given the shift in the position of Finland and Sweden on NATO membership
5
28
87
A rare look, by one of India’s most respected diplomats (
@ShivshankaMenon
), at how the war in Ukraine is viewed by, and has affected, the world beyond Europe and the United States.
3
25
86
Bibi Netanyahu had two hard choices: 1) keeping his coalition intact (for political & personal reasons) by appeasing the hardliners; 2) backing down to stop the mega protests. But he seems to picked a 3d: kicking the can down the road till July, hoping that the protests fizzle
8
31
86
@anneapplebaum
Ms. Applebaum, surely this kind of smear against John Mearsheimer is beneath you. You’re always eloquent in stating your position, but is this where you, an influential public intellectual, want to take the discussion over this appalling war? For shame.
5
4
79
In effect, Israel’s far-right government is demanding that the US subsidize, provide political cover for, and be complicit in, the policing, repression, & open-ended occupation of millions of Palestinians. How could that possibly serve American interests?
10
24
85
Two RUS hypersonic Zircon (aka Tsirkon) missiles—speed up to nearly 700 mph, range, variable, up to 600 miles—apparently aimed at the SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) office in Kyiv were shot down Monday. Unclear if Zircons targeting locations besides Kyiv were intercepted. 1/5
9
16
84
Yes, Russia invaded Ukraine, which has the right to defend itself, but that doesn’t mean escalation isn’t without serious consequences for all. Pointing to that danger is not an exculpation of Russia.
9
23
82
My assessment in
@ForeignAffairs
of where the war in Ukraine stands a year after the Russian invasion:
7
30
81
US, but not Europe, apparently moving to ban oil imports from Russia. A largely symbolic move because less than 4% of US oil imports come from Russia versus circa 26% for Europe.
1
23
73
US /NATO now fully back UKR bid for victory (US aid: $50 billion-plus: provided or planned).Talk of diplomatic settlement is denounced as appeasement. But what if, in several months: 1) R still holds big chunks of UKR land; 2) Eco effects of war hit West even harder. What then?
22
18
74
2/ But it leaves out some crucial points. First, on Feb 20, before the war, Emmanuel Macron called Putin, proposing a summit with Biden to discuss Europe’s security architecture. No follow up from Putin.
1
7
79
How about if Europe first takes the primary responsibility for defending its own continent (which it has ample economic and technological means to do, though not the political will) before venturing into the Asia-Pacific to contain China?
8
19
76
In today’s Guardian,
@DanDePetris
and I discuss why its wrong, indeed harmful, to demonize and summarily dismiss calls for a diplomatic settlement in Ukraine on the grounds that it amounts to sympathy for Putin, defeatism, or worse:
12
26
73
Not only has Xi Jinping snubbed Narendra Modi by declining to attend the G-20 summit Modi is hosting in Sept, Chinese maps have again depicted the northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh as PRC territory, prompting an angry response from India’s foreign minister.
11
9
75
13/Ultimately, Ukraine’s military prospects hinge less on the points I’ve flagged for discussion here and much more on whether US military aid continues and whether Ukraine can mobilize and train ~500k additional soldiers—and whether Europe steps up far more than it has.
2
7
76