Minna Ålander 🌻
@minna_alander
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Research Fella @FIIA_fi & @cepa fellow. Nordic security & defence, 🇫🇮&🇩🇪 foreign & sec pol. Plot twist: not from Åland. Rants my own. 📸©️ Sasa Strainovic
Helsinki, Finnland
Joined November 2016
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Got tired of the defeatism that is AGAIN spreading in Europe amid the weekly warnings that Russia might attack NATO in 1-5 (or 20) years so I wrote about Nordic-Baltic preparedness.
Not everybody has been sitting on their hands for the past 2 years.
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Since many people know nothing about Finland, jump on click bait headlines and retweet without checking facts, here a short overview of the things Russia has threatened Finland with so far & what their consequences are/would be:
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When I say Finland is prepared, I mean it. Russia has never NOT been THE security issue No. 1 for Finland. Although the world only recently found out about our 1340km border with Russia, we never once forgot about it. So rest assured, WE HAVE THOUGHT THIS THROUGH
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Oh and one more thing: the Finns are actually happy that Russia is cutting off the remaining energy supplies because the Finnish people have been demanding their government to stop the exports on their own account.
So the joke’s basically entirely on Russia
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Wow. Finnish Defence Forces will quit calling the enemy “the yellow state” during military service exercises and just say it out loud: Russia.
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1. Cutting electricity exports as of today
No problem, thanks to a new nuclear power plant + wind power Finland will soon be self-sufficient and even a net exporter. Finland used to import ~10% from Russia. Sweden & the Baltics can compensate for any short-term shortages.
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Hard to overstate what a geopolitical mic drop it was for 🇺🇸 Secretary of State
@SecBlinken
to say this in Helsinki of all places:
“The Kremlin often claimed it had the second strongest military in the world […] Today, many see Russia’s military as the second strongest in 🇺🇦.”
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Weekly reminder that
- there would be no energy crisis
- no food crisis
- no need for weapons deliveries to 🇺🇦
- no reason for 🇺🇦 to fight
- and 🇫🇮🇸🇪 wouldn’t be joining NATO
if Russia hadn’t invaded Ukraine. Don’t get confused about the sequence of events and responsibility.
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Norwegian-Finnish ammunition producer Nammo has activated 5-shift production at its facility in Sweden, meaning 24/7 production of 155mm ammunition. Also French-owned Eurenco is doing the same in Karlskoga. A main reason: supporting Ukraine.
Via
@HthHans
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Some important things to know about Finnish defence capabilities and why Finland now wants to join NATO:
Finland does NOT want to outsource its defence to NATO. Suggesting that is basically an insult. It’s a matter of pride to many Finns to be able to stand up to Russia. 1/8
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4. Stationing troops at the Finnish border
Currently the question is: what troops
In the long term expected to happen anyways, regardless of whether Finland is in NATO or not. Russia already declared Finland an enemy along with the other EU countries.
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2. Cutting gas deliveries (will prob happen this month)
A bit annoying because some industries need gas but on the whole no problem because gas is only ~5% of Finland’s energy mix. Finland already works with Estonia on the purchase of a LNG terminal ship.
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“Yes we pay a price, … but it is a price we can measure in currency, in money. The price they [🇺🇦] pay is measured in lives lost every day. So we should stop complaining, and step up and provide support.”
Every. Word.
@jensstoltenberg
(Video clip via
@EPPGroup
)
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3. Ending the lease contract of the Saimaa canal (Finland has leased the part of the canal that runs through Russia)
Finland doesn’t really need it anyways & would end up saving a s*it ton of money from the modernisation of the infrastructure.
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Exciting news: the 4 Nordic countries Denmark 🇩🇰 Finland 🇫🇮 Norway 🇳🇴 and Sweden 🇸🇪 have agreed to work towards operating their approx 250 fighter jets as one fleet.
Excellent to see the Nordics using the fullest potential of regional cooperation 🫶
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Since the waters are getting muddy again:
1) Crimea is internationally recognised part of Ukraine
2) Russia invading Ukraine’s territory (incl Crimea) is wrong
3) Ukraine has the right to defend itself
4) Russian occupation of Crimea is illegal
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“In Finland and Sweden, the militaries know a thing or two about extreme cold weather combat, and how to battle the elements. And with an eye on the weather, the two Nordic nations have announced their biggest packages of military aid for Ukraine to date.”
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Thank you for an excellent question, Adam. Examples from the past decade:
2013: simulated nuclear attack on Sweden by Russian jets
2014-15: 8 violations of Finnish airspace by Russia in a little more than a year
2021-22: sabotage of Norwegian undersea infrastructure
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Surprise surprise, Marin’s drug test result is negative.
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Wow WHAT a cognitive dissonance between Western European & Eastern European takes on Gorbachev’s death in my TL.
Western Europeans mourning one of the greatest statesman of the 20th century, Eastern Europeans remembering the violent crackdowns in the Baltics & South Caucasus
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Since there’s still some disbelief about this outside of Germany: yes, an “environmental foundation” founded by Minister President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Manuela Schwesig (SPD), received €192 million from Gazprom via their subsidiary NordStream 2 AG, in Feb-Nov 2021
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I was recently asked by a German, why fear doesn’t seem to play at all a similar role for the Finns as it does for Germans currently.
The Finnish preparedness culture explains a lot - Finns don’t get paralysed by fear, they get busy.
And we have nuke-proof civil shelters
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Attention please ! Look at the Finnish Prime Minister Orpo closely. You can clearly see that he is
SMILING
All you need to know about how important Sweden’s accession is for Finland. We only smile once every 100 years !!
Välkommen till Nato, Sverige! Welcome to Nato, Sweden!
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Why do we even speak about a Marshall plan and security guarantees for Russia.
It’s Ukraine that needs both. Not Russia. Russia attacked Ukraine for no good reason.
Amazing how this always gets mixed up
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Finland has quietly filled its wartime stockpiles and is activating some of the so-called “production reservation agreements” which means that companies produce at the armed forces’ request what is needed for logistics - basically wartime economy light
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The Nobel committee will NOT invite Russian, Belarusian and Iranian ambassadors after even the king of Sweden said he’s considering not to attend if the ambassadors are invited.
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Being in Finland atm, the German public debate regarding Ukraine looks silly beyond belief.
Only yesterday I talked with my 🇫🇮friends about what we would do in the worst case (i.e. Russian attack) while Germans still can’t get enough of teaching 🇺🇦 ambassador “bitte” & “danke”
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20 years ago I did say many things but unfortunately reached a limited audience since I was 10 years old.
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3 very important things Ukraine has proven without doubt by now:
1. Ukraine is very well able to use western weapons effectively
2. Russia is not omnipotent
3. Ukraine has a good chance to liberate its territory from Russia
Western policy must be adjusted accordingly
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Can we please agree to stop talking about “NATO expansion”. It’s not NATO that is somehow actively expanding on its own initiative. It’s countries applying for membership.
Enlargement yes, but not expansion.
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In Finnish media, the live feeds are consistently about “Russia’s attack”. In Swedish media, I see “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine”.
In German media, it’s mostly “war in Ukraine” - which is already an upgrade from “Ukraine crisis/conflict” - but terms used in media matter
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I was recently asked in an interview for a German media whether Finland could end up withdrawing its NATO application because the stakes are rising too high re: Russia cutting off electricity & natural gas supply to Finland.
Nothing could be further from the reality
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Weekly reminder:
This is not a war between two legitimate parties. Russia had no justification to invade Ukraine. No NATO expansion, no CIA plot, no legitimate security interests, nothing.
Hence, not a single target is in any way a legitimate one for Russia in Ukraine.
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Elon’s Twitter:
NPR leaves because they get flagged as US state-affiliated media. Meanwhile, RT is apparently NOT anymore flagged as Russian state-affiliated media.
@benjaminwittes
gets suspended for some jokes while Medvedev is free to continue his genocidal rants
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President Zelenskyy is on a surprise visit in Finland today !
Later in the afternoon, all Nordic Prime Ministers are coming to Helsinki at President Niinistö’s invitation.
🇺🇦🤝🇫🇮🇸🇪🇳🇴🇩🇰🇮🇸
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A friendly reminder:
Good relations between Finland and Russia are not over because Finland seeks NATO membership.
They’re over because Russia is waging a brutal war of aggression in Ukraine.
Finland’s NATO bid is a consequence thereof.
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Everyone else: *analysing the ingenious details of Ukrainian counteroffensive, like whoa*
German general: “sees no real counteroffensive in Ukraine”
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This joke describes it best:
Putin: How is my war against NATO going ?
Advisor: We have so far lost 50,000 troops
Putin: And NATO ?
Advisor: NATO troops have not arrived yet
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Reducing Russia’s genocidal war against Ukraine’s very existence to a proxy war between 🇷🇺&🇺🇸 is one of the stickiest Russian narratives and possibly the most insulting one.
Esp because Ukraine has had to work so hard to get support from the West. Proxy what ?
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It’s sad to see how unnecessarily hard Germany’s top leadership is making life for themselves. It’s gotten to a point where European partners are starting to think about how to circumvent Germany instead of working with it.
This constant shooting itself in the foot needs to stop
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Hilarious on Finnish Twitter atm: a very tired Russian attempt at election meddling (🇫🇮 has parliamentary elections in early April), with trolls/bots that make extremely funny mistakes with the Finnish language. The best so far has been a failed attempt to discredit NATO:
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Providing Russia with a pretext and “justification” for hitting civilian targets (which its been doing repeatedly) is indeed an epic fail for a human rights organisation.
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Before demanding peace negotiations, ask yourself (and be honest) - for whom do you want peace ?
a) for Ukraine
b) for Russia
c) or for yourself because you don’t want to be bothered ?
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Something to remember in the midst of excitement re: NATO accession:
Finland’s security situation is only so calm thanks to Ukraine’s resistance against the Russian invasion. Everything could have gone very differently for Finland too if Ukraine hadn’t fought back so bravely.
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Russia: *invades a neighbouring country for no good reason*
Also Russia: “our security is threatened, we have to take up arms to protect our nation”
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There’s also always the automatic assumption that Finland must be totally dependent on Russian energy and also s***ting our pants because of some Russian threats.
Just because Germany is, doesn’t mean others are.
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TANK TWITTER !
How’s Ukraine going to handle 4 different types of MBTs ?
- 🇬🇧 challengers
- 🇩🇪 leopards
- 🇺🇸 abrams
- 🇫🇷 leclercs (if Macron indeed decides to deliver them)
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Estonia’s PM
@kajakallas
in a speech titled “the battle of our time” (yes, it’s a reference to LotR) at the Finnish Parliament:
“Large countries can make mistakes and survive. For small countries, the margin of error is much smaller. This is an existential question for us.”
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In a speech today, 🇫🇮 Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto outlined 5 reasons why Finland is joining NATO:
1. Russia
2. Russia
3. Russia
4. Russia
5. Russia
Haaviston mukaan Suomi liittyy Natoon 5 syystä.
1. 🇷🇺 kasvanut riskinottohalu.
2. 🇷🇺 halukas painostamaan naapureitaan joukkokeskityksin.
3. 🇷🇺 löysä puhe ydin- ja kemiallisista aseista.
4. 🇷🇺 kv. oikeuden vastaiset toimet, erit. sotarikokset.
5. 🇷🇺 etupiirivaatimukset.
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Great that Western media are now cooperating in a concerted effort to uncover Russian influence ops, latest here: the Kremlin’s operatives have been fuelling anti-Turkish protests to complicate Sweden’s NATO accession and deepen divisions between 🇪🇺&🇹🇷
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Russian cars parked at Helsinki-Vantaa airport have been targeted by a mysterious sticker attack. Via
@iltasanomat
🇺🇦💛💙
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NATO membership is an additional insurance that makes the threshold of any military action against Finland as high as possible. But national defence will always remain a priority to Finland. In President Niinistö’s words: NATO membership won’t change geography. 2/
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Finnish Defence Forces have a fully mobilised field army of up to 280 000 + 870 000 reservists (while Finland has 5.5 million inhabitants). The Air Force is extremely well-equipped (latest purchase 64 F-35 fighter jets) and the artillery is one of the strongest in Europe. 3/8
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One week after Russia lifted the Covid restrictions, enabling border crossings between 🇫🇮 & 🇷🇺 (just on time for the holiday season…), there are increasing calls in the Finnish society & politics to follow Estonia’s example and stop giving tourist visas to Russians
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The Finnish, Swedish and Norwegian Chiefs of Defence apparently marked the day by skiing 90 km. As one does.
Kiitokset yhteistyöpalaverista Norjan ja Ruotsin kollegoille. Erityiskiitos yhteisestä osallistumisesta 90 km:n military Vasaloppettiin. Se oli osoitus yhteisestä tahdosta. Erityinen päivä muutenkin, kun Ruotsin Nato-jäsenyysprosessi saadaan vielä tänään eteenpäin!
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Been thinking about all the people today who have in a condescendingly anti-Ukrainian defeatist way said to me “let’s be realistic - 🇺🇦 has already lost” (had these convos mostly in 🇩🇪).
But actually it was Russia who already lost when Zelenskyy said “I need ammo, not a ride”
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Finland already fulfils the NATO 2% defence spending goal and will exceed it in the coming years. And not to forget: Finns have a very high willingness to defend their country (in a poll from Dec 2021, 84% said they would contribute to the best of their ability). 4/8
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Just had a great convo about Finland’s NATO membership with a taxi driver who turned out to be a war historian. His 2 cents:
“Neutrality is a nice idea but seldom works in practice”
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All you people saying that Ukraine has no chance to win anyways so giving them weapons only increases the number of casualties
How do you not understand that this is literally about Ukrainians rather dying defending their independence than becoming part of Russia
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I’m a Finn but I’m prob almost as happy about this as the Swedes 😭🙏
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International media:
“PANIC-BUYING IN FINLAND”
“RUSSIA RETALIATES BY CUTTING OFF ELECTRICITY SUPPLY”
Actually Finland: 100% zen
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As a NATO ally, Finland will take its commitments very seriously - Finns are a rule-abiding nation almost to the point of obsessiveness, as our EU partners can tell 🙃 Therefore, Finland will be more than ready to contribute its share to collective defence. 6/8
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It’s official: Russia will turn off the natural gas tap to Finland tomorrow morning due to disagreement over Moscow’s rouble payment scheme.
Still no reason to panic, Finland has been preparing for this and it will not cause any major disruptions.
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Russia currently: “invading another country and waging a brutal war for 15 months can actually have repercussions within your own borders ??”
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About humiliating Russia:
One could argue that Finland & Sweden humiliated Russia by applying for NATO membership despite being repeatedly told by Russia not to do so. President Niinistö even called Putin to tell that Russia itself caused it. That is a total in your face move.
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What annoys me most about the
#visaban
debate is how the blame is put on the frontline states.
In fact, hardly any other country has so excessively tried to reach out to Russia in an attempt to build cooperative relations as Finland in the past 30 years
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Russian disinformation is not so much a problem in Finland (Finns have a good media literacy re: Russian stuff) as outside of Finland, it aims at sowing doubts about Finland’s ability to cope with Russia’s potential retaliation and about Finland as a NATO partner. 7/8
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🇫🇮 President Niinistö at the end of the joint press conference of Nordic prime ministers & Zelenskyy:
“It felt like we had a sixth Nordic country with us”
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To illustrate the perception of Germany in Finland currently, I compiled some recent Scholz-themed caricatures by two Finnish artists from Finnish media.
This one by
@PerttiJarla
needs no explanation (from
@hsfi
1 October)
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Different arguments can be made about the draft dodgers & asylum, but lecturing Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania & Poland about how hard and dangerous it is to stand up against a repressive system is just ignorant
They’ve literally been there & done that as recently as 30 years ago
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The military defence, however, is only the peak of the iceberg: the Finnish comprehensive security concept encompasses the whole society, from infrastructure to economy and civil protection. Literally all aspects of life have been thought through from a security perspective. 5/8
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Finland. Day 15 in NATO. The country’s NATO policy still in a nascent state, with discussions ongoing on the highest levels about what degree of NATO presence would be desirable.
Town of Kauhava (15k population): WE WANT A NATO BASE
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In Stockholm, besides many other regular demonstrations in support of Ukraine, there’s a weekly Monday gathering at noon by committed people to show that support for Ukraine is not diminishing although the war drags on.
🇸🇪🤝🇺🇦
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I kid you not, there’s yet another open letter in Germany demanding an immediate ceasefire and “the West (!) to end the Ukraine war through negotiations”.
This is not even funny anymore
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The recent series of leaked Russian strategy documents regarding political manipulation of Germany, destabilising the Baltic States, and using climate cooperation/ academia as tools of Russian interests are all well-known parts of Kremlin’s playbook for psychological and info ops
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Congrats to Latvia on winning 🥉 in the ice hockey world championships - as a Finn I’d like to emphasise that you beat the Swedes and that’s all that really matters 😘
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Breaks my heart that this is unfortunately accurate. Finland and Sweden owe their smooth accession to Ukrainians who have kept Russia very busy. It would be the utmost disgrace if 🇫🇮🇸🇪 weren’t the strongest supporters of 🇺🇦 NATO perspective
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City of Turku in southern Finland will not remove the Ukrainian colours painted on the parking slot of the Russian consul 🇺🇦
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The failure of German energy policy was that instead of having Russia where Germany wanted to have it, it was Russia who had Germany where it wanted to have it.
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International media requests: OMG RUSSIA ANNOUNCED PUTTING ISKANDERS TO KARELIA, HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT THIS, FINNS ???? 😱
Finns: good, bring them closer so that they’re easier to eliminate.
A Finnish take on the Russian announcement to set up an Iskander brigade close to the Finnish border: “operationally it seems absurd to bring missile systems with such a long range closer to our border area which makes them a target.”
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👀 an analysis of satellite images shows that Russia has been emptying air defence batteries around Saint Petersburg to source missiles to Ukraine
Via
@yleuutiset
Suomi = Finland
Venäjä = Russia
Viro = Estonia
Pietari = St. Pete
Red dots = empty bases
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Ukraine has been successfully pushing back Russian troops for quite some time now.
That has exposed (again) the ambivalence in many western countries’ support: Ukraine should be winning, but not too much, and Russia should be losing, but also not too much.
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France and Germany urgently need a Ukrainian team to help them with strategic communication
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Reports are mounting esp in 🇩🇪 press that after having finally decided to supply leopard tanks to Ukraine, Germany has now been abandoned by countries that had signalled willingness to contribute their part.
I did some research to find out what’s up with 🇳🇱🇩🇰🇸🇪🇫🇮
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And here we go: foreign journalists are deeply confused “how could Finland’s most celebrated politician Sanna Marin lose the election ??”
Well, she’s a case of a politician who is more popular abroad than domestically.
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Germany’s Bundeswehr has launched a new ad campaign, saying “what counts when we need to show strength again”.
The alarmed reactions and pushback it has gotten is indicative of how long the mental Zeitenwende will take
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Wow this is quite something in the promised land of strategic non-communication: Finnish security and intelligence service is giving a presser about Russian disturbance and influence attempts in Finland.
“Russia can endure the war, but it may not be able to endure the peace”
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If Germany wants to avoid a NATO-Russia war by 2025, it can give Ukraine Taurus missiles so that Ukraine can hold Crimea under threat and maybe destroy the Kerch bridge, that’ll keep Russia busy 😊😉😊😉
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‼️ Finland’s foreign minister
@Haavisto
just said at a presser that Finland is in discussions with Germany and Poland about the leopard tanks for Ukraine
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Disagree. France is a nuclear power and Macron hinting at a connection between French vital interests and Ukraine is in itself a deterrence signal. Huge change since “let’s not humiliate Putin”. France has embraced Russia’s defeat while Germany has not.
This may be an unpopular opinion as everyone is so excited about Macron. But his new rhetoric, the squabbles with Berlin, are just political games Paris and Berlin are playing about leadership in Europe. There is little in it for Ukraine - or has Macron suddenly doubled support?
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I really recommend everyone further west in Europe to read this if you want to understand why Finland has been preparing for the worst (war) while hoping for the best (peaceful cooperation) vis-à-vis Russia.
And why Finns feel a strong “connection of destiny” with Ukrainians
I report the news, so I rarely take a stand. Here is an exception. This is a very personal account of my relationship with Russia over the decades, starting from my family roots in Karelia, and what we ought to have learned by now
#newsxchange
#EBU
#Russia
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Some sources 8/8
On the comprehensive security concept:
More details on 🇫🇮 defence capabilities by
@heljaossa
& T. Koivula:
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Since Twitter doesn’t exist anymore, I guess it’s really time to leave.
It’s been an incredibly useful platform and it’s a disgrace that millions of people are losing it as a source of information and public debate for one little man’s ego trip.
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