Mykola Bielieskov
@MBielieskov
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Research Fellow at National Institute for Strategic Studies under UA President/senior analyst at Come back alive; all ideas tabled here are my private position.
Київ
Joined September 2016
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Provide UA with MLRS to make our strategic defensive operation in East more active and effective. Increased UA ability to strike in depth of Rus combat formations means Rus inability to outperform UA in manoeuvring and massing superior power on frontline to pierce UA defences.
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When you don’t want to share your Leopard 2.
Cartoon by Maksym Palenko.
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US owes UA SRBM ATACMS as back in 1990s and 2000s US persuaded UA to disarm - among other things to destroy SRBM Scud complexes. Back at that time people expected peace&cooperation but those days are gone. Now there are gaps in UA capabilities that need to be addressed asap.
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President Volodymyr Zelensky is asking for F-16s because his advisers believe that, without them, Ukraine’s skies may fill with Russian bombers. So far they have been better judges of the war than most Western experts. It is past time to listen to them.
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Just want to remind that UA agreed not only to nuclear disarmament in 1990s but to dismantle its arsenal of conventional Scud operation-tactical missiles given proliferation risks - 50 launchers+185 missiles were destroyed. Now Ukraine need to be reciprocated with M270 or M142.
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It’s a moment of truth for Biden Admin in UA-RU war - there is no substitution for M270/M142 in terms of capabilities UA need. Only UA ability to target RU logistics, C2 nodes, artillery, reinforcements would allow to exhaust RU offensive capabilities and arrest its advancements.
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Stop talking about so-called land bridge as there is none. As you see from map there in no continuous two way railway on temporary occupied territories of mainland UA. Capacity to transfer cargo through railways on mainland in limited.
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Якщо в вас за 10 місяців великої війни із Московією немає розуміння, що армійці апріорі завжди готуються до найгірших сценаріїв в мене для вас одна неприємна новина.
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No war is won by sticking only to defence. Strengthening UA air defense is important&benign enterprise. But also UA firepower capability needs to be augmented with SRBM ATACMS - that’s the best asymmetrical response to RU missile terror targeting UA civilian infrastructure.
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Provide UA with ATACMS missiles (310 km range) to directly strike Rus ships in Sevastopol. It’s much more cheaper than using NATO major surface combatants every time to convoy cargo ships with UA agricultural export. Save time and money.
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+1 Ukrainian family. We are grateful for Ukrainian security and defence forces for this opportunity.
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M270 was to solve very urgent task - not to allow USSR to use advantage in men/materiel to penetrate NATO defences in WGermany. It strikes deep to degrade any reinforcements that might come to aid original assaults. Now it’s time to prove M270 quality - to aid UA stop RU attacks.
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UA Air Forces stated that another RU cruise missile was shot down by UA fighter. Though not the most important task for fighter it is within fighter capabilities. Cruise missiles are slow - up to 0,8 Max speed in flight. R-73 air to air missile speed is 2 Max.
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Since RUs can’t subjugate Ukraine with either annihilation or attrition strategies they target critical infrastructure to make civilian life unbearable and country dysfunctional. And those who block essential aid for UA self defense are complicit in these crimes.
Another night of massive Russian missile strikes in Ukraine, this time targeting the power infrastructure. DniproHES hydropower station in Zaporizhzhia among those hit. Russia is taking advantage of Republicans in the House cutting off the resupply of air defense interceptors.
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Українська реальність. Акт в три дії.
1. Говоріть із нами як із дорослими.
2. Починають говорити як із дорослими.
3. Та ну? Та як? Це ж помиральна яма/гірка криниця. Нізя так. А можна якось перемогу так, щоб мінімум зусиль?
Занавіс.
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В мережу злили план контрнаступу.
Удар по напрямку Білгород-Вороніж, а тоді різко поворот на південь до Ростова. Щоб обійти укріплення ворога і охопити значні сили.
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M270/M142 - platforms that would change tide of war for UA side being ideal for both defence and offence. Ability to strike in depth (40+ km) prevents enemy reinforcements being moved to front line. So it’s possible to crush enemy in parts depriving it of superiority in numbers.
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Morocco gets its request to buy SRBM ATACMS approved by US while UA request to get this capability has been rebuffed for almost a year as it’s engaged in biggest war in Europe since 1945. Doesn’t it seem strange to put it mildly?!
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Polish donated carriages in Kyiv underground.
🇵🇱 + 🇺🇦 = 💪
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People are fascinated with how skilful UA Forces proved in manoeuvre warfare trying to envelop/cut enemy GLOCs with deep flanking strikes saving cities/lives. This is huge contrast with “RU way of warfare” with slow frontal assaults and almost complete destruction of settlements.
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Only gloom&doom.
Nothing about Czech&German initiatives.
Nothing about the fact that Ukraine Defense Forces managed to withstand Russian advances since Nov 2023 relying primary on UAVs of different kinds while inflicting major damage on RU forces.
Journalism of fatalism.
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The way UA employs US provided HIMARS with GMLRS is the best argument why UA deserves to be provided with even more powerful ATACMS missiles - there is no targeting of civilians and just surgical strikes against mil related targets like storage facilities, C2 nodes and troops.
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UA was forced to surrender not only ☢️ but also conventional SRBM&bombers under nonproliferation rubric with no meaningful security guarantees & only declarations that “UA independence important for US”. It worked during unipolar moment but proved disastrous when RU recovered.
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Як же ж багато заплачено, щоб українські діти могли ходити в українську школу.
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Поговорили непогано із Полом Массаро.
З.І. Пан
@anthony__cba
ось таке фото треба було обирати для поста, щоб не підставляти колег. 😅
@serhii_bahlai
@TarasChmut
@apmassaro3
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Сьогодні мені 30 років.
За що велика вдячність Богу і батькам.
Але свій ювілей я б не міг святкувати, якби не наші найсильніші армійці.
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Just want to remind that in 1920 military force (RU White Army) which relied solely on Crimea as its base for operations could not sustain fighting for long given limited peninsular resource capacity. Without Crimea bridge whole RU southern front will crumble quickly and easily.
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Ukrainians don’t have a luxury of being pessimistic.
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What is clear by now is that “Prevent RU from winning, prevent UA from losing” favoured by Biden Admin is not sustainable strategy any more.
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It’s hard to imagine feelings of UA pilots when they sat in cockpit of dated MiG-29 to confront RU combat planes with better avionics and air to air missiles. For some it was one way ticket. But still those people served their country. And that’s why F-16s are urgently needed.
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UA forces targeted RU tug boat in Black Sea (possibly with Harpoon ASCM) and base in Nova Kakhovka (Kherson region) with Tochka-U SRBM. Another two good examples of long-range fires being successfully employed by UA forces.
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Хай лише сили оборони України вийдуть на дистанцію масової роботи ствольною і реактивною артилерією в район переправ через Дніпро, то бажання московитів гратися в вуличні бої в Херсоні швидко зникне без забезпечення. Не рівняйте себе, московити, із оборонцями міста Марії.
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Ukraine is bleeding - losing best&the brightest at front to compensate for lack of heavy weaponry/unable to gain strategic initiative as risks of escalation are slowly considered each time by West in case of another weaponry provision. Chances to clean RU out of UA decrease.
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Ааааа. 50 км!!!
Це глибина і темп які властиві кращим наступальним операціям WWII.
ЗСУ в районі Балаклії Харківської області вклинилися в оборону противника на глибину до 50 км. Наразі внаслідок бойових дій на Харківщині звільнено понад 20 населених пунктів, тривають фільтраційні дії – представник Генштабу ЗСУ
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If indeed US is going to provide UA with +18 M142 HIMARS it’s the best proof that Biden Admin is not buying into Kremlin explicit unconventional escalation threat combined with sham referendums. Kremlin plan to consolidate gains crumble.
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Dear
@Newsweek
I’ve never said this.
Your author has never spoken with me personally and it seems that he has distorted my public comments with regard to Avdiivka Battle.
My major idea was opposite one - if RU push us out of Avdiivka they won’t turn it in major offensive.
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People who admire Barack Obama for domestic policy accomplishments are not ready to accept the fact that his foreign policy legacy has proved to be rather weak one. Obama left presidency with revisionist states more emboldened to challenge post 1991 world order. That’s the fact.
15 years ago today, I asked you to believe in the change we could create together—and you did. I’m so proud of our Obama alumni, many of whom we saw this week, for carrying that mission forward.
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UAs being punished for taking stance and demonstrating that there is no “sport out of politics” is a total disgrace.
I read the news that after Ukrainian champion Olga Kharlan refused to shake hands with her russian competitor, the federation disqualified her.
Can it be true,
@FIE_fencing
?
#StandWithUkraine
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Ukraine crushed myth of RU mil omnipotence, decimated its Armed Forces best formations and made switch to defence. And with this huge contribution to EuroAtlantic security UA deserves full fledged NATO membership asap.
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За тиждень ворог втратив 3880 бійців особового складу, 96 танків і 190 ББМ, якщо орієнтуватися на дані Генштабу ЗСУ. Тобто мінус одна бригада особового складу, 3 батальйони танків і 6 батальйонів ББМ.
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UA forces are asked to do impossible thing - preserve shells and professional troops while preparing for (counter)offensive and simultaneously arresting RU ongoing offensive. No amount of ingenuity so lauded by Western media can’t solve this equation.
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We can exchange some restraint only for hundreds of ATACMS SRBM, more Patriot SAMs and ammo for tube&rocket artillery.
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Будь-який вищий армієць із часу Мольтке-старшого якби міг прочитати інтерв’ю Валерія Федоровича для The Economist і знав наш контекст, то сказав би що Головком ЗСУ нічого такого не сказав екстраординарного і просто робить свою роботу.
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Germany govt creativity in finding excuses not to provide UA with air launched cruise missiles of TAURUS type are truly disgusting.
Sorry but I am fed up with mincing words.
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Not meeting expectations? Really?
Somebody has waited Desert Storm 2.0 with modest means provided to UA? As President
@ZelenskyyUa
rightly said recently UA is going to conduct offensive actions the way pol-mil leadership deem necessary - to minimise UA loses and maximise RU ones.
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Unfortunately both people inside&outside of UA mostly concentrate on specific personalities analysing war dynamics instead of giving a thought to objective conditions. By this people miss really important things and how they shape limits of possible. Thread 🧵
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Моя перша вчителька. Дяка їй не лише за базову грамотність, але і за відповідні принципи, із якими йдеш по життю.
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UA Armed Forces Commander in Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi: “We have no right to pass over this war to our children. Enemy shall be de wiped out here and now, otherwise it would not stop. And we can do it.”
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Якщо Данілов не прикрашає постфактум і реально плюс-мінус таке сказав Зеленському зранку 24.02.22 то красунчик безперечно.
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As UA completed envelopment of RU forces in Lyman it’s interesting why RU forces there were not allowed to withdraw with fighting when it became evident that RU forces were not able to hold current positions. It seems that political considerations of “no step back” intervened.
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@HolisticStas
Будь-які розмови про помиральну яму це шлях до поразки. Допомагають лише тому, хто готовий далі щось робити. Якщо в нас опустяться руки, то нам ніхто не допоможе. Тому Московія так качає всередині країни.
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There is deadly RU combination of mines, attack helicopters, tube&rocket artillery, EW systems which UA successfully attempts to undermine in south mainland before committing major manoeuvre formations. So please be a little bit more patient.
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Targeting RU’s old&gas processing facilities is a legitimate military target for Ukraine. RU war machine is underpinned by 100+ bln dollars annually from energy export. Without these revenues RU war machine will stumble.
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Велика людина, яких мало.
Царство неб��сне.
💔25 серпня на Житомирщині у небі зіткнулись екіпажі 2 навчально-бойових літаків L-39.
Усі троє пілотів, на жаль, загинули.
Серед них — пілот 40-ї бригади тактичної авіації на позивний «JUICE».
Вічна памʼять і слава полеглим воїнам!
Честь!
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According to brigade general Dmytro Marchenko (mastermind of Mykolayiv defence in first month of big war) in last 2 weeks RU lost in Kherson region ~1,8K troops, 120 MBTs, 130 tube artillery pieces, 20 MLRS, 2 helicopters, 2 planes. Quite impressive attrition rate.
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Коли Польща приєдналася до НАТО в 1999 році то тодішній очільник МЗС Броніслав Геремек заявив, що після прийняття християнства, це друга найголовніша подія в історії Польщі.
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WSJ disappointed for the first time since 24.02.22.
Person who has nothing to do with UA-RU relations, wider EuroAtlantic security, strategy and military issues in general provides his highly informed opinion.
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How long do you think UA can endure on its own if NATO countries continue to refuse to take more risks&responsibility of directly confronting ugly RU revisionism?
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Even a rather limited number of Patriot SAMs provided to UA proved to be a huge boost of UA air defense/anti-missile capability as recent events made clear.
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Marry Christmas.
Dreaming about victorious Ukraine in NATO.
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When people made a reference to David vs Goliath contest they usually emphasise only a first part of fight - when David disoriented Goliath with sling. But people usually forget the second part of this Old Testament story - when David cut Goliath head to remove the threat fully.
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Member of NATO apparatus who tentatively suggested that Ukraine shall agree permanently with loss of sovereign territories in exchange of eventual NATO membership promise shall immediately leave his position as his suggestion is in contradiction with base on which NATO is built.
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Solid attempt of
@TheEconomist
to bring West elites out of complacency&galvanise into action.
Fact that RU suffered miserably in 2022 made some people to think in “Mission accomplished” mode. RU partially recovered psychologically&invested in long term fight - unlike West.
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UA POW being killed just for saying “Glory to Ukraine” is the testament of RU Army impotence as all they are “good” at is to kill unarmed POW for mere sign of defiance and national dignity.
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If 15 years ago Ukraine was admitted to NATO there would not have been this wall. Price of not admitting Ukraine into NATO proved being much higher than admitting Ukraine and is growing every day. Bold strategic decisions are required now.
During yesterday's 🇺🇦 visit,
#NATO
Secretary General
@jensstoltenberg
laid a wreath at the Wall of Remembrance of the Fallen for Ukraine, paying tribute to all those who have lost lives or suffered wounds in defence of their homeland
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🇺🇦 which voluntarily surrendered nukes in 1990s is subjected to war of extermination by RU as 🇺🇸 dithers as to what extent support 🇺🇦 given RU nukes.
Simultaneously 🇺🇸 aids nuked armed Israel subjected to 🇮🇷 attacks to mitigate damage and 🇮🇱 response.
What is your conclusion?
I have a horrible feeling that very soon the lessons all states are going to learn from this world wide crisis is that if you have nuclear weapons, you are protected. If you don’t, you are made to suffer. And that means nuclear weapons will be developed wherever possible.
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Орнув.
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While Ukraine has been denied means for legitimate self defense Russia has been waging a total war against 🇺🇦 targeting our critical infrastructure to make our country dysfunctional. Thus there are legit doubts that all our international partners aim for viable Ukraine.
This is what one of the DTEK thermal power plants looks like from the inside after the shelling...
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100% of power generation of CentreEnergo is destroyed by Russian missiles. This night RU targeted and destroyed Trypilia thermal power plant in Kyiv region.
Dear Mike Johnson just take your time to debate properly parameters of aid package for Ukraine. There is no need to rush.
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Дякую всім, хто прийшов після рекомендацій пана
@max_shcherbyna
Колись і в мене буде своя капібара.
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The end goal of Putin is to destroy UA as a viable state. The best way to demonstrate that his plan failed spectacularly is to admit UA into NATO. That step will also usher in RU post imperial transition with no space to project its imperial delusions. Time for bold act has come.
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ППО це чиста математика помножена на везіння. Чим більше комплексів ЗРК із кращими ТТХ, то більше шансів збити ворожі крилаті ракети. Везіння це про бути в правильному місці в правильний час.
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Третій день ГенШтаб ЗСУ повідомляє про доволі великі втрати в противника в живій силі (700-800 осіб).
Вище військово-політичне керівництво України - 🤫
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Just one year ago these days UK was a first one to start preemptively strengthening UA with mass airlift of NLAW which played its role in stopping original RU onslaught. Now UK is first one to recognise and act on premise that heavy weaponry are needed by UA to break a deadlock.
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Security guarantees for nuclear superpower with capability to retaliate even after successfully hypothetical counterforce strike? Is Macron kidding?
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That’s a tragedy in making.
First Biden Admin spoiled a chance to deal a decisive blow to RU in 2022. Then US populists seized lack of decisive battlefield results to argue “Better strategy is necessary” while denying UA any funds for self defense.
Ugly and wrong.
UKRAINE: Lawmakers tell me there is no way House will pass Ukraine aid in 2023.
@SpeakerJohnson
is firm on House leaving by Dec. 15 and no Senate deal in sight
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In 2014-15 Barack Obama and such his advisers as Charles Kupchan just managed to buy international community fake sense of normalcy at the expense of Ukrainian people and territories instead of arranging for proper international response to Russian revisionism. Just accept it.
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Somewhere President Macron is secretly crying as now any reference to Finland model for Ukraine means NATO membership for Ukraine which is anathema for Macron.
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No matter artificial constraints imposed on Ukraine by US and Elon Musk Crimean peninsula will be liberated and RU Black Sea fleet will be demilitarised.
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Читаєш про жахи, які Люфтваффе чинило діючи вільно в повітряному просторі Другої Речі Посполитої в вересні 1939, і розумієш яке щастя, що ПС ЗСУ реалізували успішно протягом останнього року стратегію заборони домінування в повітрі відносно пілотованої авіації Московії.
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I’ll be more blunt than my friend
@PhillipsPOBrien
in this op-ed - the way mil aid is given to UA is the recipe for slow protracted defeat of UA. Asymmetry in long range firepower means with artificial constraints imposed on UA is just one example that leads to such conclusion.
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Ukraine is basically sacrificed for the sake of escalation management and such an approach decreases chances for UA success nullifying effect of previously done investments in terms of equipment and macroeconomic aid.
Very very sad development.
Ukraine will not get ATACMS, the 190-mile-range tactical ballistic missiles, urgently requested by Zelensky to destroy Russian forces in Crimea and other Russian-held territory ‘anytime soon,’ officials say. News comes one day before Zelensky visits Biden at the White House.
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Since US way of war emphasise first&foremost AirPower+air-launched PGMs with little readiness to radically increase production of 155 mm shells and new tube artillery it means that only way to strengthen UA asymmetrically is to provide Kyiv with ATACMS. That’s the only way.
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UA Air Force reports that today on 14:00 UA fighter MiG-29 shot down more modern and advanced RU Su-35 fighter over Kherson region. UA MiG-29 provided air cover for UA close air support Su-25.
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For the sake of escalation management opportunity to decisively defeat RU in 2022 was sacrificed.
If M142/GMLRS had been provided earlier&2 army corps had been created during spring-summer 2022 last year campaign might have ended with RU army rout.
There is nothing to cheer.
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