Lily
@nope_its_lily
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CIO and founder. Tweets are not financial advice and autodelete. Tweets do not reflect my employer's views. Lily's Forever Portfolio:
Joined October 2020
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어린이날
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こどもの日
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#ขวัญฤทัยEP12
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子供の日
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GW最終日
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#해피큥데이
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Al Jazeera
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#기다리던_민족대명절_큥탄일
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West Ham
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Vlad
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Cole Palmer
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#HappySkyDay
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#碧海これからも一緒に歳取ろうね
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سعد اللذيذ
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Noni
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Bernard Hill
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Gallagher
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柱稽古編
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Madueke
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Brighton
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Happy Cinco de Mayo
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D-1 to BLOSSOM
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Theoden
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Cucurella
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サカナクション
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蜜璃ちゃん
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I am at a doctor’s office where a patient is arguing with the receptionist because the patient is self paying and the receptionist is telling him that she can’t tell him how much the visit costs until after the visit because they won’t know what billing code to use (even though…
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If I was an alien race that wanted to cripple Earth’s technological development I wouldn’t kill scientists, I would invent new ways to ensure the best and brightest people would choose to work on optimizing ad clicks, create exciting new financial derivatives, or trade vapor…
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if you think about it, the whole field of AI safety is designed to get philosophy majors tech salaries
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Imagine any other service of any sort where you literally could not even get an estimate of how much you will need to pay before getting the service.
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Imagine being a 70 year old retiree in Japan who dutifully worked at Toyota for 45 years and who was looking forward to a peaceful if plain life living off the yen denominated fruits of your labor.
And imagine if in a week your entire life’s savings devalued 5% because of…
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You've finally become a real adult when you realize that no one's controlling the strings.
There's no shadowy cabal.
There's no faceless Illuminati that somehow orchestrates the world.
It's just people. Mostly incompetent people. Uncoordinated groups of us, meandering and trying…
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Broke: making scientists kill themselves
Bespoke: making kids opt out of scientific careers to instead pursue arbitraging Solana meme coins
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@RamRanc
This is absolutely untrue, there are many doctors who do indeed have a fixed self pay option.
This person was being notably dense on it but the fact is this whole system is designed this way by the insurance companies themselves. It isn’t the doctors’ fault.
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The comments here are notably stupid; of course the doctor has right to charge you for services on extent of the issue (tests, procedures, etc).
This was a price for a consultation. This is like if you went to a mechanic and they refused to tell you how much their consult would…
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hot take but I think in your 30s you should get a College 2: a period of 4 years with basically no responsibilities
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Like I kid but the fundamental problem with crypto is it breaks incentives for everything else. Why make a real company solving real problems when you can launch a meme token in a month and get 10x richer?
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inflation is over except in the things you need to live
The war on inflation is over. We won, at very little cost
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@bjeansonne
No, because this was for an office visit.
A mechanic will charge you usually an hourly rate to investigate what is wrong with your car.
This is like if a mechanic came out and refused to give you a price, spent ten minutes looking at your car, and asked for $10,000.
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All you had to do is buy tech and do nothing else for the past decade, but instead you went long failing cable companies, nail fungus, South African gold miners, Australian uranium royalty trusts, random Canadian convenience stores, random Japanese small businesses, Latin…
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If you want an idea how bad the China selloff has been, there is a mid cap Chinese name trading on Nasdaq (so more comprehensive audit than pink sheet ADRs) right now which records a P/E of 2, and has a market cap less than total cash on hand minus all liabilities.
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A very smart dude once told me that the Russell 2000 is structurally designed to fail because it penalizes the actually good stocks in it, since they graduate and become large caps.
Anyway
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If you're still bearish here after a non-stop grueling 26% upward march on the S&P in less than 6 months, give yourself a pat on the back.
You're mentally ill. You're possibly mentally challenged.
But you have conviction, and that's what matters, not PnL.
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@KathaleenPortr1
Yes and restaurants provide you menus so you can estimate your costs based on how much you order too, right?
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People, you do realize when stocks go up on bad news what that usually means right.
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Basically the whole market looks overvalued as shit, and half of you are going to short it and lose everything, and half of you are going to long it and lose like 20%.
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I can't believe Charlie Munger's last words before he died were 'apes together strong'
Rip legend
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It's over. This was it. This was the last cycle and equity bubble in your lifetime.
If you didn't make generational wealth, I'm sorry, try again in the next life.
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Mental but if gold goes up 2% more, it will have the same 5 year price return as the S&P.
For holding a shiny yellow rock which doesn't produce anything.
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@default_friend
Senior loneliness is a real and super sad problem.
I mean, if you read the wikipedia article about being old, you start crying.
I don't understand the American setup where people throw their parents into nursing homes and move away.
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If I get elected president, I will change math so if you lose 50% one day and make 50% the next day, you're back at even.
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Going to make a thread of quote tweets to review in 6 months when the market is probably significantly lower than here.
"There were no signs"
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The moral of the last four years is that the people who are dumber than you will get richer than you, so be as stupid as possible
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It's so weird there's literally an asset with super-normal returns which has relatively predictable bubble cycles with chances to earn like a lot of money...
and some people refuse to own or trade it
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Yeah I could buy Nvidia and make 10% in one day, but I prefer instead to buy French gas station subsidiaries and German homebuilders and make 10% in one decade
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I took out $25,000,000,000 loan from the Bank of Japan.
15 bps upfront fee.
0.034% interest.
1-year term.
Then I put it all into 1-year treasuries paying 5.4%. I will take the free $1.35B.
I took out $25k from my credit card.
3% upfront fee. 0% interest. 1-year term.
Then I put $25k into 1-year treasuries paying 5.4%.
I will take the free $600.
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We're less than 4% off all time highs and sentiment feels like we're on the precipice of a new global financial crisis.
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I deleted it but there's a whole side of finance which seems to revel in screwing over poor, less educated, or elderly people that sickens me. It's very common in real estate and financial advisory.
Money comes and goes but your morals don't. There's few things worth sacrificing…
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that's my quant
my quantitative
my math specialist
I'm sorry to the person who sent me this. There is ZERO chance.
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I don’t understand people who get bearish and express it by shorting SPX or Nasdaq.
Like God made the perfect shorting vehicle, it’s called Ark Invest ETFs. Like it’s literally called Ark Invest.
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So crazy we’re a year and a half into the LLM Revolution and the only change AI has made to my daily life is no one can shut the fuck up about AI
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I used to think it was fake but no, being in a good relationship actually is the secret to being happy
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Average retail options trader: I am long an eight legged structure that pays me out if the market goes down between 3% and 5%, but I lose everything if the market goes up 1% or down more than 8%
Professional options trader: I am long puts because I think the market is going down
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top, this mfer is really victory lapping making 3% return after a 50% drawdown and 2 years missing cash returns by 7%
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it's crazy how bitcoin is almost up 100% year to date and when I talk to friends outside the space they treat crypto still like the plague
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It’d be so fucking funny if ETFs marked the forever top and the minute boomers got to buy Bitcoin in their 401ks it went straight to zero after all
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Hi Chamath,
Big fan of All-In Podcast. I've never listened to it, and don't intend to, but I did lose some money listening to you on your SPACs, so I think I'm stupid enough to be a good CEO for your boys club podcast.
I think with your strategic vision and my operational…
We’ve decided to hire a CEO for All-In.
Old media is broken. Talking heads, selling ads, inciting anger, with one-sided discourse has become tiresome and is deeply damaging the social fabric.
We want to tackle this error and create a new kind of media and live events brand…
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Guys it’s going to be fine, stop panicking.
Yes, inflation is back.
Yes, this means your purchasing power will eventually become worthless, doubly so if you’re outside the US.
Yes, this means the rapid decline of US hegemony and destabilization of world democracy and peace.
But…
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People confused about what happened to META should realize that the present value of all future discounted cashflows just decreased 16% today.
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Not saying this is the top but if in a month Nvidia is down 30% it will have been so obvious
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This is definitely the blow off top.
I was there in 2000 and remember it vividly.
I was 5 years old but I remember being alive back then.
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guys out here stressing about QRA, SOFR curve dynamics, and bond auction results while being single at 35... buddy you're worrying about the wrong tail
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Everyone around me is getting engaged or having kids.
Jokes on them, while they’re wasting their lives I’m staring at a computer screen to move money around to make more money.
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A portfolio consisting of five major land trusts (Aztec Land and Cattle, Maui Land & Pineapple, Tejon Ranch, St. Joe Company, Texas Pacific Land Corp) equal weight - 75%, and long bonds - 25% has outperformed the S&P since before the GFC.
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there's truly a weird amount of people on this site that somehow think the most liquid equities index and the most liquid fixed income and currency markets are somehow less informed about the state of the world than they are
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IMPORTANT: HIRING OPPORTUNITY
I work at Novi Loren, a family office with significant capital under management. We're starting a prop trading firm and looking to hire star quants, portfolio managers, and analysts.
Know someone? DM me if you know anyone who could be a fit.
My resolution for 2024 is to talk to more top traders and portfolio managers, spanning from generalist discretionary macro wizards to dumpster diving microcap value weirdos to incel quants.
If you're interested in connecting and have chops to back it up, feel free to send me a…
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the weirdest subtype of grifter people are AI fanboys who don't know how to actually know how to code
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Diversification is horrible if you have a crystal ball, correct.
After Bill Gates became friends with Warren Buffett, he began to diversify his portfolio and sold Microsoft shares.
Bill Gates' fortune today is 138 billion dollars, if he hadn't diversified it would be 1.33 trillion dollars.
Be careful with diversification and with friends who…
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People selling semiconductors to buy regional banks — just so you know, your trading history qualifies you for disability assistance.
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So, you have three paths.
Path one is cognitive dissonance, where you deny the practical reality and still cling to conspiracy out of comfort. It is comfortable, to believe there are invisible enemies that justify why your life sucks.
Path two is you fall into depression or just…
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If you're a profitable trader on your own capital, you need a certain amount to make it reasonably worth it compared to trading someone else's capital.
If you trade a 50mm book for someone and take 17% payout split, let's say 14% realized after fees and other costs, if you return…
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"Be even more greedy when others are greedy" - Warren Buff.eth
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Bonds weak, stocks are heavy
There's supply on the long end, Yellen's spaghetti
He's nervous, but the vol surface looks calm and ready
To nuke equities, but bears keep on forgetting
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2023:
- I met a lovely guy
- I made some awesome trades and get to do what I love
- I got to spend two months in Europe and Morocco
2024:
- get in shape
- make more friends
- make $10 million somehow or buy a duplex in LA
Cheers let’s hope we don’t all die this year.
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e/* is just pronouns for tech people
The whole of silicon valley is online making up new accelerationisms like they're tumblr girls playing with new genders
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I still think all the time how my best performing quant model ever by an extremely large margin is a single moving average crossover.
There's a lesson in that - be stupider.
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After trading on an L1, I'm pretty sure Ethereum's lead in shitcoining via Uniswap is going to be eviscerated.
It's such a tremendously different experience being able to iceberg out of orders without paying $50 in gas each time.
Books can be way more efficient.
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If Kelce wins and proposes at the Super Bowl, this will cause a massive marriage and baby boom, instantly fixing the birth rates and ushering a new 1950s
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ARKK is nice because it's like imagine creating an index solely devoted to the most unstable companies imaginable with high sensitivity to animal spirits and the business cycle, but also have a blind monkey pick when to buy, sell, and weight those companies
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Took my grandma out for her 94th birthday, hope I look as young when I get there
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All I learned since 2020 is rates don’t matter, the economy doesn’t matter, quantitative easing doesn’t matter, gamma doesn’t matter, vanna doesn’t matter, money supply doesn’t matter, having cash flows doesn’t matter
All that matters is it sounds funny and people will buy it
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Conspiracy theories are remnants of immature thought. When I was a kid, I thought maybe I was the one chosen to terraform Mars, or build a time machine, or whatever. These make sense if you believe the world is you-centric, and your impact is limitless.
But when you're an adult…
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It's much nicer to imagine, even if you conspiracize they're the ultimate evil, that somehow, Davos or WEF or UN or the Jews or Big Finance ETFs are in charge.
Then you can believe the world makes sense, that there's ways to restructure society that can actually make it simpler…
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Obviously not financial advice and I am personally biased here, but it's crazy how many people in tradfi or otherwise have seen crypto rally so many times and still have zero exposure to it.
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My quant, who I consider trustworthy, is convinced the real economy will shortly experience a systemic risk. I don’t know anything concrete, but if I were exposed, I would be concerned.
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I feel like every time you fly on a 737 MAX, the flight attendant should hand you some free out of the money puts on Boeing just as a travel insurance policy for your next of kin.
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You’re laughing? My apes are worthless, my Munchables have no Schnibbles, my racist meme coin portfolio rugged, my Slerf pre sale deposit went to zero, my Whoren token crashed over night - and you think this is a joke?
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finally, an AI that cites racist tweets, the future is now
Grok beats ChatGPT when it comes to handling controversial questions. I tested this by touching the third-rail of social science and asked both for statistics on race and IQ.
ChatGPT lectured me on the social construction of race.
Grok just spit out the numbers.
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wake up babe new global conflict just dropped
The President of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro has announce tonight that the Esequiba Region of Western Guyana is now “Official” a Territory of Venezuela, with a State Map being Released and Oil Expeditions said to be in the Planning Stages.
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bond this, yields that
why don't you bond with a girl and yield to a loving marriage
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Baby boomers probably contend for one of the most destructive and self-centered generations in aggregate in world history.
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If the Halvening in a month means Bitcoin is going to 100k, why does it currently not trade at 100k?
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Valentine’s Day Dinner with BF
I made:
- Pineapple upside down cake
- Marry Me Chicken (Attempt 2)
- Latkes
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People complaining on here about Canada's capital gains tax law like they actually make capital gains
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basically everyone is going to get unemployed soon
Announcing Sora — our model which creates minute-long videos from a text prompt:
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I wish Satoshi was still alive to see the culmination of his life's mission (speculation on a spot listed exchange traded fund listing with big financial institutions acting as authorized participants)
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@Mugu11549283
@bjeansonne
I mean do you realize that is egregious and broken? How does one expect a normal individual to know the magic incantations here?
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It's pretty obvious why highly successful women dread motherhood -- because nearly all the costs -- opportunity cost, physical cost, energy cost, as well as relationship cost -- is put on them, with no equivalent cost on the man
this piece is a wild read. i believe the author is being earnest and honest in her depiction of her own and her demographic's neuroticism
also left feminism may be cracking on the matter of childbearing
archive:
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I have no position but it’s funny how people for some reason think good earnings means the stock should go up or bad earnings mean the stock should go down.
It doesn’t.
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I need to start getting into twitter fights with rich people so they can make prop bets with me and I can add yet another uncorrelated source of return
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If you don’t understand calculus and differential equations , you should give up trading
This is what it takes to generate proprietary trading signals to live luxurious life
There is no substitute for hard work
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Los Angeles housing market be like:
lot size 1000 sq ft, built in 1903, sold as is, former crack den, portal to underworld opens occasionally, all cash only
$1,295,000
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it's wild how there's people working on creating artificial general intelligence, miniature nuclear reactors, space warfare technology, and new types of monkey nfts and all four of them believe they're working on building the future
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