Nirvana Laha
@nirvana_laha
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Serial learner | All things Investing | Bullish on Bitcoin | History | IIM Ahmedabad | CFA L2 | ValuePickr -
Bangalore
Joined May 2012
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Piramal Pharma is going to pay a royalty of 0.75% of revenue to Piramal Enterprises for "facilitating loans and advising in investment decisions". Promoters hold 43% of PEL and only 35% of PPL. Neat.
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Big fund manager or small retail investor, once you fall in love with a stock and commit to it publicly and loudly, you lose a critical tool in an investor's toolblox - the ability to change your mind. Then ego takes over and the analytical brain often takes a backseat
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RACL Geartech has a long and fruitful runway ahead of it. Very few concalls are a pleasure to hear, this is one such. A 600Cr MCap company having ZF, BMW, KTM, Kubota, Man Trucks, Scania as its customers. Very bullish.
New project wins this Q
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So, South Indian Bank, declared results for Q3 today. And randomly had a steep drop in treasury revenues from 414Cr in Q3FY22 and 371Cr in Q2FY23 to 85Cr in this Q. A steep drop of ~80% YoY. What happened suddenly?
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The more I see the Piramals at work lately, the more I am left wondering why they're lauded as such a great business house. Yes they built a great Pharma company and sold it to Abott more than 10Y ago. Since then, what?
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In case, you like me, have been wondering what's the exposure of Indian banks to Adani group debt, CLSA has come out with an excellent report today to analyze this.
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Piramal Enterprises seems to have an unending amount of wholesale provisioning left to do. And each Quarter they say "With this we have adequately provided towards wholesale book". Their old wholesale AUM is 20x their new wholesale AUM (Supposedly clean).
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This panel is a huge value add from
@screener_in
. This saves a ton of time which was earlier spent on keeping track of and setting reminders for call timings and result dates. Incremental changes like this make an investor's life very easy. Great work as always
@faltoo
@ayushmitt
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Brilliant article from
@a_basumallick
on Munger's $BABA trade and lessons to be learnt from it. A short masterpiece on avoiding behavioural biases and risk management systems for personal capital!
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MBAs have never been insulted as brutally as in this book 😅 And just like Taleb says, I think his remark is about another MBA, not me 🤣
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What a brilliant video on the cement sector by
@Harshitt93
. Very information dense and gives you a great overview of demand-supply and cost dynamics of the industry. If you are new to the sector, this is a great resource to begin your understanding.
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Carlyle Investments in public Indian healthcare cos
1. Metropolis🟢- Approx. doubled their money via IPO & subsequent exit. But sold half their ownership in Apr-Jul 2020, post which Metropolis did a 2.5x in 18 mos. Original stake acquired in 2015.
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Age old investing lesson learnt first hand in the last week : Position sizing matters. Leave alone investors, sometimes even promoters don't know what could go wrong with a business. The only way to shield yourself from those risks is to take the right position size.
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Another promoter owned entity - ARPSL - gets acquired by Amara Raja at 6.5x EVEBITDA multiples. This co makes industrial and EV chargers for 2W and 3W. In Q2 FY23, another promoter owned entity making plastic components for battery - Mangal Industries - was acquired by ARBL.
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I spent a good 5 hours on the ITR website today without facing a single timeout or lag, the website worked as smoothly as it has ever done for me. But hashtags regarding ITR website glitches are trending on Twitter for weeks 😅
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Did some scuttlebutt on Krsnaa Diagnostics in Mumbai over the last couple of days. Details here 👇
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The loss of Covid related CDMO business is hurting Laurus badly. Most of the market (myself included) had failed to account for the one-off nature of this Covid business. Management has guided for a flat FY24; achieving that itself is going to be a challenge by the looks of it.
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This is some very neat crowdsourcing from
@screener_in
. If you find a presentation or concall transcript missing, now you can click on "Add Missing" and provide the link and submit it to screener. They will validate it and upload it for everyone. Increases speed of updation.
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Anushka Sharma is doing a movie on Jhulan Goswami's life called Chakda Xpress. Jhulan Goswami retired yesterday, but Anushka Sharma's PR team forgot to post even one farewell message. That's pretty tone deaf and insincere 😁
Here's a glimpse into the Chakda 'Xpress journey with our earnest director
@prositroy
🏏
#ChakdaXpress
#ComingSoon
#ChakdaXpressOnNetflix
#HarDinFilmyOnNetflix
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@sahil_vi
Dude this thread is absolutely legendary :) You have collected all your brilliant Value Pickr posts in this thread. Absolute gold mine on how to do research if you're a retail investor 🙏
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How to use promoter selling data in an overvalued stock effectively 👇
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The 3 year MDF upcycle seems to have come to a conclusive end for now. Greenpanel reports flat YoY revenues with a 400bps EBITDA margin compression (This is excl. adverse forex impacts).
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A brilliant, thought provoking interview by Russell Napier. His hypothesis - global macro is moving towards a financial repression scenario where inflation will run hot and interest rates will stay below inflation. Thanks for sharing this
@sahil_vi
!
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Very interesting call from FIEM
- Gogoro tie up will start commercial revenues from Aug
- At full production, Fiem will supply 15-18k worth of content per vehicle (Lights + Hub motor + ECU + MCU). Initially CKD, indigenisation to increase slowly
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Many stocks aren't for you. You either don't trust the promoter or don't understand the business model or don't like the industry structure/economics. They may run up and become multi-baggers but that's okay. You'd have never had the conviction to hold them for long enough anyway
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Huge shoutout to
@LearningEleven
for the absolute top job he does at making brokerage research reports available every day. Its a huge value add.
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@GMby64
@EmilSutovsky
Indian's abstention doesn't mean it condones the invasion. It has repeatedly stressed de-escalation and dialogue. India is in a difficult position because Russia has been an old diplomatic and defence ally. The US love for India is newfound, FYI
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Major props to
@nikhilkamathcio
for his new podcast series. They are long form, go deep into the subject and are very insightful. Of course, Nikhil Kamath's network ensures we get to hear from the horses' mouths in each episode. My favourite episodes so far in no particular order
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Sequent Scientific now below the price at which Carlyle picked up its stake (INR 86/share). Who's buying? 😅
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A very common misconception amongst investors seems to be : If a promoter owns only 20% of a publicly listed company, he/she does not have skin in the game. This may not be true.
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Time for a short story.
I am home for a week. Home for me is Kharagpur in West Bengal. Yesterday, I saw a Yamaha FZS bike parked in our garden. None of my family members use a 2 wheeler so I enquired about the owner of the bike. Its quite a premium bike too.
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Key reasons for the SVB debacle seem to be
1. Disproportionate exposure to deposits from one cohort (Startups)
2. Asset liability mismatch - Parking client deposits in long duration assets like MBS/Govt bonds to earn a better yield than short term Govt bonds
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Manappuram Finance
👉FY23 ROE 16.6%, Q4 ROE 17.5%
👉YoY AUM growth (17.2%, in spite of Gold AUM de-growth)
👉Non gold to gold AUM ratio: 44% vs 56%
👉YoY PAT growth 59%
👉Consol CRAR 32%
👉Cost of borrowings steady at 8.2%
👉Trading at 0.96x PB
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@shrinivassg
This data can be leveraged later by Jio Finance too. Ready customer base who can be targeted from day 1.
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This one is a must watch interview IMO with Neelkanth Mishra. He talks about real estate, US economy global liquidity and his Sectoral picks for FY25. May not be interesting for folks who don't track macro as part of their investing decision set
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Sectors that appear to represent value (in value investing terms) for me right now: Innerwear, metals, pockets of chemicals & pharma, brokerages & AMCs, media, ag-chem. Which other sectors can one see value in right now?
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Just finished one of the best investing webinars I have heard in a long time
@soicfinance
hosting
@CongruenceA
. No theoretical fluff, 100% real case study based insights and implementable recommendations around industry and profit pool analysis.
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Solid set of results from HG Infra. Delivering on what it's been promising
- Divestment of completed HAM projects
- Big Q4 as guided by Management
- Growing PAT at 25%+ (~30% this FY)
- Good cashflows on standalone basis
This one should get more attention from investors.
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@ishmohit1
Tanla Platforms. CPaaS player with 20%+ annual revenue growth, 20%+ EBITDA, almost 1000Cr cash on books and long runway for growth. Aiming to become a global CPaaS player now. Has developed great platforms. Thesis is clear, international execution is awaited.
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HDFCB's NIMs have compressed YoY due to a steep fall in CASA ratio due to merger + continued investment in branches. That has caused EPS to remain flat. Like to like deposit growth of bank may not be that bad. I think market is extending a one bank specific issue to the sector?
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@joybhattacharj
So many Portuguese derivative/loan words in Indian languages!
- Ispat (steel) is derived from Portuguese espada
- Pav from Portuguese Pao meaning bread
- pagar (salary) from Portuguese pagar
and many more
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After Greenpanel, another key MDF player - Rushil Décor - reports severely compressed margins. QoQ EBITDA margins compress from 23% to 12.6% and gross margins compress by 6% thanks to ⬆️imports led pricing pressures,⬆️finance costs and ⬆️ depreciation costs
The 3 year MDF upcycle seems to have come to a conclusive end for now. Greenpanel reports flat YoY revenues with a 400bps EBITDA margin compression (This is excl. adverse forex impacts).
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@sahil_vi
@ishmohit1
Companies like EKC who are purely into CNG should have a very low terminal valuation and therefore a low intrinsic stock price. But the pace of growth in next 3 years will be high and momentum will take the stock far higher than its intrinsic value I think.
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What's one unmistakeable sign of a raging bull market? Seller's remorse for every stock which is sold. Because everything you sell has gone up by a lot the next time you check its price :)
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One call I love hearing every Q is RACL Geartech. Passionate promoters who love to talk about technology. Exciting things happening in the company and broadly in the Indian autocomponents space.
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Credit rating downgrade for Piramal Pharma for its long term loans. Had to happen after the size of the interest burden became apparent post demerger.
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Federal Bank recently came out with decent Q4 results. While NIMs were beginning to peak out, Q ROE was at its highest. Even normalising for extra treasury income, the ROE and NIM numbers were decent. But the stock tanked 8% on the day of the results.
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@LynAldenContact
@PrestonPysh
I gave it the same prompt and it returned an equally amazing new poem
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Interesting viewpoint on Income Tax raids from an infra company.
CC:
@AnishA_Moonka
@Chins1729
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Dollar Industries🩲is attempting some very ambitious distribution channel transformations. For a legacy company with legacy distributors, these can be very difficult to pull off, but if successful, has the potential to generate immense value for the company.
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Huge spike in 2W retail sales in October. Crosses 2019 pre-Covid levels for the first time. Could this be the long awaited revival in 2W and could this signal moderation of post-covid rural stress? To be monitored over the next few months.
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Learning : If you aren't a really long term investor in a stock (5 years +) and if you're fairly active (Check your PF once a day kinds), GTT buy orders for stocks may not be a great idea. Often these orders have been set many weeks ago and a violent down-move triggers them.
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Great video on a non buy and hold strategy in the markets. Its definitely a lot more work than buy and hold because it requires you to constantly keep turning stones to keep hour opportunity basket well stocked. But for people who love that and can spend time, it's a fine style
Some thoughts on buy & hold vs by & churn styles and why buy & churn happens for some investors like myself
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The yield spread on gold loans is mind boggling
CSB is at 11.4% (~45% of book)
IIFL is at 18% (32% of book)
Manappuram is at 22% (63% of book)
Its clear that the products at the 2 extremes are completely diff even though both are GLs - diff customers, diff disbursal methods
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For the last 3 decades, supply chains have become more global than ever. The world economy has gotten used to a globally optimised, non-redundant supply chains for key RMs and FGs and has factored in benign prices forever. But what happens if these assumptions get challenged?
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In a world where students and learners have access to classes, assignments and exams from one of the most well regarded professors of valuation for free, the entire education system needs a serious rethink.
I will be teaching my valuation and corporate finance classes at NYU's Stern School of Business in the spring, and as always, you are welcome to join. You can virtually take the class, access the material and even take the exams.
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If you are interested in the banking or financial sector and don't read Deepak Shenoy's long form explanations of complicated, jargon filled RBI notifications from time to time, you are seriously missing out. One of my favourite reads on Twitter is Deepak demystifying RBI regs
RBI has a new rule: NBFCs cannot use AIFs to evergreen loans. Let me explain. This is going to take some time.
NBFCs have seen increased regulation over time, mostly because they tried silly stunts. So RBI forces them to recognize bad loans after 90 days of non payment etc.
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Wrote about why Dollar's seemingly vanilla supply chain shake-up may not be that vanilla. Context and peer set is important
Spoke to the zonal head at one of the innerwear companies in India, who spent the entire call praising Dollar Industries' business model. Notes below:
If you want to understand Dollar, search for
@Ankush__Agrawal
on the concalls.🫡
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This is a great video to form a first level view of the global semiconductor chip supply chain
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If you liked reading this thread and learnt something from it, please give me a follow on
@nirvana_laha
. I tweet about investing, finance, economics and sometimes about sports.
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@agadmator
I go one better. Sometimes I fork my opponent's Queen and Knight with my Knight 😎Then I start another game.
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@sahil_vi
Tanla. Invested in tranches through 2021. Price reaxhed 2.5X of my initial buy price in Jan 2022. Kept holding as price dropped. Exited a large portion at breakeven. Bought back some when I felt price was at "value zone". Down 30% from those levels now 😂
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@balajis
As long as clubhouse doesn't have an Android version, it's a playing field for the select few. Perhaps by design.
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@paraschopra
Can only think of motorcycles (Africa, South America) and spiritual gurus (North America) and maybe Polygon (Cryptocurrency with Indian creators)?
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With treasury revenues back on track, South Indian Bank reports good results in Q4. Annualized ROE touches 20%, NIM still expanding, reached 3.67%. Mr. Murali had said 300Cr Q PAT was possible in the last call, the bank delivered 334Cr instead. CRAR at 17.3% is ATH.
So, South Indian Bank, declared results for Q3 today. And randomly had a steep drop in treasury revenues from 414Cr in Q3FY22 and 371Cr in Q2FY23 to 85Cr in this Q. A steep drop of ~80% YoY. What happened suddenly?
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@viditchess
There's a list of countries from where quarantine is mandatory. All of Europe needs mandatory quarantine.
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@_nirajshah
@RouteSms
@Route_Mobile
@BloombergQuint
@_nirajshah
Thanks for the great interview, love the work you do! But would like to point out that Route is definitely not the only CPaaS player from India.
@Tanla_India
is the original player and in fact by far the largest from India. Growing faster than Route as well.
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1000 Twitter followers! 🥳😀
Thanks to everybody who reads and engages with my content and also thanks to those who share generously on this platform and enable learning!
Twitter can be a great platform when you know what you're looking for.
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CSB Bank has been doing 18-20% ROE for the last 2 years. I know its still a regional bank, but the ownership and management does give confidence about their ability to scale. Trading at 1.45x PBV.
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One of the best threads I have seen on Twitter, ever.
@sahil_vi
You are inspiring so many retail investors man to do so much better! 🙏
Mirza International.
Red Tape. Mode. Oaktrak. A thread.
Let us try to understand the possible reason(s) behind recent ferocious price increases. Let us also understand how to analyse a business through innovative means.
Please ReTweet if you find it useful.
🧵🧵🧵 👇
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HG Infra reports a stellar Q. 24% YoY revenue growth and consolidated EBITDA margin touches 20% for the first time since Q2 FY22. With a robust budgetary allocation to road infra and a number of NHAI tenders in pipeline, HG Infra seems to be on a strong wicket for now.
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The entire MFI sector stocks have been going down this Q inspite of very good results. Is it regulatory overhang? Is it elections? Can't put my finger on it.
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2nd resignation of Company Secretary in Likhitha Infra within 8 months. CFO also resigned about 8-9 months back and was replaced by Promoter's daughter as CFO. Sure the company is winning new orders and showing growth, but how to trust the numbers?
#CorporateGovernance
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Good time to read Sudarshan Chemical and other companies in the dyes and pigments space. Lot of charts perking up. This is a great video on the company to get you started.
Detailed analysis of a stock in extreme pessimism: Sudarshan Chemicals.
Video is 50 minutes long but I hope by now those asking to make 5 minute stock analysis have got reality check or left battlefield.
Your likes & retweet will keep us motivated🙏
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@LynAldenContact
So 2 consecutive quarters of - ve growth is classified as a recession right?
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@GMby64
@EmilSutovsky
Hey man, look up Ukraine's voting history in the UN against India. Nations sometimes have to act for self preservation even though they know the moralities of such actions. If you're calling for disbarment of India over this, USA shouldn't be allowed to host any event :)
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I am 5th from right in the 2nd row. It was a truly amazing experience :)
Had an amazing time at the VP Conference 2023.
This time the format was a bit different and we had many new prolific contributors, domain experts and female investors.
More details available at
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Another great blog from
@SridharanAnand
. He talks about his framework for generating signal from noise in today's info heavy world in the context of investing. His style is to follow only the Mt. Rushmoreans of the field & ignore everything else.
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Michael Johnson going gaga over
@Neeraj_chopra1
athleticism on Twitter is what I am here for ❤️ Neeraj Chopra has forged a path for India where there was none. What an Indian sporting icon. And he is only 25 years old.
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The latest newsletter from
@LynAldenContact
is a pleasure to read - . She is the best big picture thinker about the global economy that I have come across. Here's a thread breaking down her post
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Golden insight. The intellectual stimulation from making the effort to understand a complicated business need not always be compensated with good returns. In fact, such a business may not even be a good "business" in return on capital terms.
@theHarshFolio
conflating cutting edge tech for high rates of return or good investments is a common error.
another is mistaking hard to comprehend businesses to be potentially good investments (we think effort to comprehend will be compensated by returns)
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@saxena_puru
Why does US need stimulus if the money is going to be surplus in the hands of the so called "needy" and get parked in assets? Isn't the point of the stimulus to provide much needed cash to people to pay for daily needs such as rent, food, other bills?
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This is such an interesting chart. India at all time high PEs whereas the likes of Brazil below their 10th %ile PEs. Decoupling means India stays where it is or goes even higher. No decoupling means the diamond slides down the scale significantly for India.
PE ratios for EM markets since 2003.
This is such an interesting chart.
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This is why India needs massive investments in education. We have a 30-40 year window to make our population count. After that it's all downhill demographic dividend wise.
India’s manufacturing resurgence has a people problem. Ask Tamil Nadu.
By 2025-26, the no. of Indians employed in electronics manufacturing services is likely to surge by ~5X to over 6 million.
The demand is such that firms are even hiring those who have cleared only 8th grade.
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U GRO launches an app for instant, collateral free, working capital credit for micro and small enterprises like retailers and grocery shop owners. The need for this product and the problem it solves is easily apparent.
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Unless there's an explosion of infra orders declared by Govt authorities in the last fortnight of the FY, the ordering momentum for infra seems to have slowed down a little.
HG Infra: Guided for 3-4k Cr order wins in Q4; Wins so far 1k Cr
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You can read my concall notes here
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The Kerala High Court has quashed the FIR filed against Manappuram Promoter Mr. Nandakumar. Meanwhile, the stock did this from the date the ED action came to light to today
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@Shubham_TLI
Valuepickr threads are like a time capsule. Especially the ones with a long history. Teaches you so much about all the aspects you mentioned. Recently had a gala time reading the Caplin Point thread. 600+ posts, took me a few hours, but completely worth it :)
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CPaaS industry in India is split into 2 revenue streams - enterprise biz and platform biz. Enterprise biz is ~20% gross margin, relatively commoditized business with huge competition. Major players Tanla, RM, Airtel, ACL (Sinch) , Valuefirst (Twlo), Kaleyra, Gupshup.
Centrum sees 37% upside in Route Mobile
Management warned of lower‐than‐expected OCF generation in Q3 & Q4 – and is unlikely to reach the 50‐75% EBITDA‐to‐OCF generation range for FY23 guided previously.
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What. A. Post.
Read and re-read this post by
@phreakv6
summarising Aswath Damodaran's Little Book of Valuation. Intuitively understanding the elements that impact firm value rather than having the ability to do precise DCFs (oxymoron) is the real skill in investing.
There's probably nothing out there that teaches valuation better than this book (or his lecture). Do yourself a favor and read the book if you haven't yet
My notes here
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@itsTarH
@AnishA_Moonka
Uber and Ola still haven't broken even I think, so even that 1-3% is in doubt
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Golden. Appreciate this a lot because I am just starting to think like this wrt my portfolio. Might sound basic to a few experienced investors, but it's golden for me.
If you are fully invested and have a finite amount of capital like most human beings - When you evaluate new opportunities, you are constantly evaluating them against what you already own. A new opportunity can’t have similar upside to an existing position, it needs to have
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