Natália 🔍
@natalia__coelho
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Applied epistemology enthusiast, software engineer. Married to @MatthewJBar . Not an expert in any academic field.
San Francisco, CA
Joined August 2021
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Pinned Tweet
I’ve been investigating the contamination theory of the obesity epidemic as laid out in
@mold_time
’s “A Chemical Hunger,” and found that several of what seem to be the strongest arguments for the theory turned out to be dubious. 🧵
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1.
@mold_time
’s hypothesis that lithium exposure causes the obesity epidemic is not plausible.
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@JoePostingg
It's very acidic, which weakens tooth enamel, making you more susceptible to cavities.
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Age-adjusted heart disease death rates peaked in 1950 in the United States, and declined by 38% from 1900 to 2018.
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I am publicly challenging
@mold_time
to address food lithium levels data from recent, large Total Diet Studies, which contradict *almost all* of the takeaways of their recent "literature review." 1/
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This post proposes testing ~20 minor variations of the potato diet, to presumably “find out why it works,” but literally *zero* of them test the hypothesis that maybe, just maybe, the diet works because severely restricting the kinds of food you eat makes you eat less
Are you interested in RESEARCH? Do you like POTATOES? 🥔🥔🥔 Do you want to RIFF ON THE POTATO DIET TO FIND OUT WHY IT WORKS??? 🔀
If so, this is the blog post for you! Recruiting now for an ENTIRELY NEW KIND OF STUDY. Please RT!
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Actually, this is wrong. At the state level, the correlation between log10(median household income) and obesity (-0.73) is much stronger than that between altitude and obesity (-0.27).
The altitude effect is real, but the income effect is greater (across US states).
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I found a large database with lab mouse body weights from ~2000 to ~2020, stratified by sex, strain and age group, and checked whether mice from the most popular strain have been gaining weight. I found that, controlling for age, they haven't.
I attempted to figure out whether the most popular strain of lab mice has been getting fatter over the past two decades, using data from the Jackson Laboratory’s Mouse Phenome Database (). It seems that, controlling for age, it hasn’t.
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@paulg
This chart is misleading.
> Cook’s approach almost certainly makes it look like (1) there are more non-drinkers than there actually are, and (2) the highest 10% of consumers are drinking way more than they actually are.
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When asking people to sign up for their potassium-for-weight-loss trial,
@mold_time
said that there've been several studies on potassium supplementation, but that "none [...] seem to have tracked body weight."
They then cited several studies that *did* (and found no change),
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@captgouda24
@LucasOfSunshine
This is, in fact, not a good explanation. Altitude is *positively*, not negatively, correlated with lithium in groundwater in the US, and there are several communities with very high Li exposure and low/normal obesity rates.
1.
@mold_time
’s hypothesis that lithium exposure causes the obesity epidemic is not plausible.
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@Liv_Boeree
@paulg
@balajis
@waitbutwhy
Uh,
@mold_time
gives *literally no reason* for why they dismiss the scientifically mainstream explanation of the effect of altitude on body weight: that it is caused by hypoxia (instead of by lack of contaminants).
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@LucasOfSunshine
This tweet is not true. See
Actually, this is wrong. At the state level, the correlation between log10(median household income) and obesity (-0.73) is much stronger than that between altitude and obesity (-0.27).
The altitude effect is real, but the income effect is greater (across US states).
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@NathanB60857242
Countries should have fully open borders, with the exception of a few edge cases like people who committed violent crimes or something
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I could only find a single paper claiming that lab animals have been getting fatter, Klimentidis et al. (2010) (). Pop science articles about the matter seemingly all cite that one same paper, and I found zero replications. So I tried to replicate it.
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Apparently part of the reason the US doesn’t expand high-skilled immigration visas is… poor accounting.
Congress doesn’t take into account the additional tax revenue these workers create, and so considers high-skilled immigration a fiscal burden!
How can we make it easier for foreign-born STEM graduates to stay in the US?
High-skilled immigration policy has a budget problem.
In a guest post for
@mattyglesias
, former CBO director Doug Elmendorf & I detail how Congress can fix it:
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So here’s a simple recipe to extract 100s of thousands of dollars from EAs:
1. Write very long blog posts about how an important medical field is wrong about ~everything.
2. Don’t worry about representing your sources correctly at all. Feel free to make stuff up if you need to.
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However, all such studies that they cited examined deer populations *under increasing hunting pressure from humans*, which increases their per-capita caloric supply by decreasing their population density.
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In the meantime, the hopelessly flawed mainstream obesity research establishment is literally in the process of curing obesity as we speak
Lilly announced on their conference call today that the triple agonist (GLP-1, GIP, Glucagon) retatrutide achieved 22-24% weight loss at 48 weeks with a similar tolerability profile to tirzepatide. They are moving forward with phase 3 for obesity.
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My blog posts were linked on Slow Boring!
A lot of theories set out to explain the sudden rise in obesity in the post-1980 United States but the more I kick the tires on that the more it looks like there actually wasn’t a sudden change and weight gain is a very long-term trend.
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@mold_time
The air is thinner (i.e. has a lower barometric pressure) at high altitudes. In the academic literature, this is called "hypobaria." Locking people inside hypobaric chambers at sea level seems to make them lose weight. From Operation Everest II:
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@mold_time
Moreover, it has been found that food is less appetizing in hypobaric conditions. Have you noticed that food doesn't taste that good inside airplanes? Apparently that's not only because airline food is bad, but also due to hypobaria. See this article:
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Perhaps the most crucial claim
@mold_time
makes for the contamination theory is that lab and wild animals have been getting more obese. If true, that would imply that changes in diet cannot be solely responsible for the obesity epidemic. So I decided to investigate that claim.
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As far as I can tell, a big part of the answer to this is that BMI vastly underestimates body fat in Vietnam.
In this study in Ho Chi Minh City, 15% of women had at least 40% body fat, but only 1.3% were obese according to the BMI definition!
This obesity thing is like the biggest possible nerdsnipe. A huge mystery that affects billions of people, with tons of data and no satisfying answers as of yet.
Like how does Iran have an obesity rate *~12 times higher* than Vietnam, a country of very similar wealth?
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Those studies explicitly said that the weight gain was expected given those circumstances, and one of the authors involved has found that deer that *aren't* hunted by humans are much leaner.
“Wild animals are getting obese” is very misleading.
@mold_time
attributes the claim to this paper several times in their blog, but the paper only investigates animal populations living close to humans. 1/
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3. If someone points out what you’re doing, just ignore them.
4. Apply for 100s of thousands of dollars of funding, saying you’ll revolutionize that medical field.
5. Profit.
I don't like it that this seems to have worked at least once.
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I attempted to figure out whether the most popular strain of lab mice has been getting fatter over the past two decades, using data from the Jackson Laboratory’s Mouse Phenome Database (). It seems that, controlling for age, it hasn’t.
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This database is publicly available, and I have a public Google Colab notebook with my analysis of it. I haven't checked all other strains, but the top 5 strains in the database all seem to be (non-significantly) getting *lighter* after controlling for log(age).
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Immigration restrictions get very little attention given the amount of poverty they’re *causally responsible for.*
People getting paid $2/hour in Kenya can vastly increase their quality of life by just moving to the US, but the US won’t let them in.
So we should let them immigrate to the US where they can earn better wages, right? right?
If you want to ban these jobs and also not allow these people to move to places with better jobs, you are not their friend.
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Medical advances in the treatment of cystic fibrosis have been nothing short of extremely awesome.
When cystic fibrosis was first described in 1938, life expectancy was 6 months. Nowadays, it’s >40 years for newborns and it keeps getting higher as new treatments are discovered.
Imagine if your life expectancy increased by decades within your own lifespan. That’s the story for cystic fibrosis right now. My view into this fascinating moment in time for CF.
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Somehow the Survival and Flourishing Fund was impressed enough with this level of brilliant scholarly research that they recently recommended a $345,000 grant to
@mold_time
.
(This was announced last month, in .
@mold_time
is "Whylome, Inc.")
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When you’re still sad about having been rejected from EAG SF 2020
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@mold_time
However, they ignore several studies that suggest that atmospheric differences are responsible for the altitude effect on body weight, instead of contaminants.
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So what is the meaningful difference between Anthropic and OpenAI when it comes to safety now?
According to the article, Anthropic is rushing towards AGI, just like all of the companies they consider to not care about safety, apparently?
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Yudkowsky has updated his stance on
@mold_time
.
"I wish somebody else was running out and trying the sort of things that SMTM is trying, but they're bad enough at analysis to not qualify for further support until that gets fixed."
@natalia__coelho
@ohabryka
@JMannhart
@acidshill
@orellanin
@humanisque
@parafactual
Have edited original . Also note my earlier statement .
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A calibration plot of binary Manifold Markets questions, at 10% of the way from creation to resolution (n around 12,000). Created using
@VincentLuczkow
's manifoldpy library ()
(my code could be wrong)
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@mold_time
However, these disparities in obesity prevalence across US states might be adequately explained by sociodemographic factors, as I explain briefly in the quoted tweet, and in more depth in my LessWrong post.
@mold_time
@crearepluris
@zmanian
A simple multiple regression model with education, race (% Asian and % Black) and altitude can perfectly predict that MS is a lot more obese than the East and West Coasts. You *really* don't need the contamination theory of obesity to explain this! R^2 = 0.8.
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@yishan
> Obviously, there were also mouse trials, and they didn’t get any cavities either
This seems misleading. Table 3 on Hillman et al. (2000) shows that rats with this strain (BCS3-L1) still had a non-zero average caries score.
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What about wild animals? Well, it turns out that Klimentidis et al. (2010) didn't really include wild animals in their analysis.
When confronted about this,
@mold_time
cited studies saying that some white-tailed deer populations have been getting heavier:
@diviacaroline
Deer are, we imagine, eating pretty wild diets, and they seem to be gaining weight as well.
Wolverton, Nagaoka, Densmore, & Fullerton (2008) include this figure, which shows a strong trend for does and a stronger trend for bucks, which is the sex effect we would expect as well
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@mold_time
Hypoxic confinement at normal atmospheric pressures, too, seems to reliably cause weight loss in humans and animals, though the human studies on this have been less extreme than some of the hypobaric chamber studies.
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Is there an easy & cheap way to invest in the 500 largest public companies in the US, *except* those tied to factory farming?
VEGN is close to what I want, but has a high expense ratio.
Is there an ETF of factory farming companies I should short to offset my VOO investment?
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So, as far as I can tell, we really don't have stellar evidence that *either* lab *or* wild animals are getting more obese.
What about
@mold_time
's other arguments for the contamination theory?
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[I deleted my old thread about this because it was wrong, so I'm reposting with a correction. I apologize!!]
The correlation between log(obesity %) and log(water lithium concentration) in Texas is -0.13. 1/
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@mold_time
I think there are a few problems here:
1. The argument "proves too much." It can be used to justify funding any highly ambitious crank.
2.
@mold_time
is not even that ambitious! They're not an x-risk prevention org!
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To be clear, I think it’s plausible (~5-10% chance) that
@mold_time
’s main thesis (that contaminants cause the obesity epidemic) is right.
But I have the impression that the EA funding environment is incentivizing them to systematically misrepresent their own sources...
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Bold of people to assume that transformers won’t lead to transformative AI
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... and to refuse to admit mistakes or consider possible alternatives to their theory. After all, their project sounds a lot more ambitious if they do those things than if they don't.
If my impression is correct, this is (IMO) really scary.
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@mold_time
They mention that altitude is negatively correlated with obesity in several countries.
This seems to very much be a real effect, and, moreover, we have evidence that it's causal.
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@StefanFSchubert
BMI is very highly correlated with waist circumference (the variable he proposed as an alternative to BMI).
The following figure is a plot of NHANES 2015-2016 data (BMI in the x-axis, waist circumference in the y-axis, adults only)
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My scaldingly hot take of the day is that financially rewarding people for systemically misrepresenting their sources and ignoring criticism sets up a really bad incentive structure.
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@Liv_Boeree
@paulg
@balajis
@waitbutwhy
@mold_time
They completely ignore the scientific literature on the effect of hypobaric chambers in weight loss, both in humans and animals.
In humans, we have the studies Operation Everest I (), II () and III ()...
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Medicine keeps accumulating huge W’s that for some reason you rarely hear about
People tend to see cancer as an inevitable part of ageing. What if it's not?
The cancer death rate has fallen by 27% in the US over the last two decades!
We've not only learnt to treat cancer better, but also how to prevent many cases entirely.
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People have high expectations for GPT-12
"Will a game of Pong be played with a galaxy as the ball before 2040?"
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@ESYudkowsky
This systematic review and meta-analysis doesn't seem to indicate that linoleic acid is unusually bad for all-cause mortality or cardiovascular disease events.
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Humans have come up with hundreds of creative ways to restrict their diet to lose weight. There’s the cabbage soup diet, the grapefruit diet, keto, the carnivore diet, etc.
But I’m sure there must be something special about potatoes in particular!
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This is a reminder that the claim that wild animals have been getting fatter is poorly evidenced.
“Wild animals are getting obese” is very misleading.
@mold_time
attributes the claim to this paper several times in their blog, but the paper only investigates animal populations living close to humans. 1/
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@mold_time
Making mistakes every once in a while is obviously fine, but I think people should fix incorrect information they’ve published if they’re shown it’s incorrect, and it is concerning to me that
@mold_time
has chosen not to do so.
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@mold_time
However, their claim that there are more underweight people today is the opposite of the truth. In the entire world, as well as in high-income countries such as the UK and US, the prevalence of underweight has been *decreasing,* not increasing, over time.
I’ve seen a few people making this claim (that there are more underweight people nowadays), so I wanted to point out that it is false.
From 1975 to 2014, “global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men […]”
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Speaking of
@mold_time
, they still have several falsehoods and misleading statements in their posts that they have refused to fix or otherwise address despite being told several times about them. See for a non-exhaustive list.
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3.
@mold_time
has not engaged with the evidence that contradicts that claim, despite numerous attempts of mine to make them aware of it, through Twitter, email, and a comment on their post (which they did not approve, despite having approved other people’s comments made later on)
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@mold_time
could have chosen to simply randomize a group of ppl to eat a lentil-based diet (instead of potato-based), in addition to these 20 variations.
If they did, they would find that eating only/mostly lentils causes just as much weight loss as eating only/mostly potatoes.
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@mold_time
So yes, a 456 kcal increase would *absolutely* be a jaw-dropping increase.
Of note, the 456 kcal number is based on self-report data, so it’s not likely to be that accurate. Food disappearance data from the USDA suggest that avg caloric intake increased by "only" 218 kcal/day.
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@mold_time
According to
@mold_time
, that is because people at high altitudes have less exposure to environmental contaminants. "Environmental contaminants build up as water flows downhill and are in much higher concentrations as you approach sea level," they say.
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2. Lithium exposure in several high-obesity countries is much lower than
@mold_time
claims. As I’ve gone into before (), their claim that “most people get at least 1 mg a day [of lithium] from their food” is based on extremely cherry-picked evidence.
I am publicly challenging
@mold_time
to address food lithium levels data from recent, large Total Diet Studies, which contradict *almost all* of the takeaways of their recent "literature review." 1/
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There are 10s of millions of hardworking people in the world earning <$5K/year, even adjusted for CoL differences. Why shouldn’t they be allowed to work in the US? Even min wage jobs in the US would vastly enrich them, and they'd be producing stuff for the rest of us to consume.
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Signal-boosting this because I find it thrilling to see someone going out of their way to publicly admit that they were wrong or miscalibrated, and wish this happened orders of magnitude more frequently.
Let the record reflect that I had a < 8% chance of this (SBF indictment) happening by EOY based on what I guessed about agility of prosecutors in complex cases, and will update on their abilities positively as a result of being surprised.
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@mold_time
Moreover, the dose-response relationship between altitude and body weight seems incompatible with the contamination hypothesis. Most contamination probably happens at low altitudes, but the altitude effect on body weight gets *stronger*, not weaker, the higher up you go.
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@mold_time
@mold_time
has not addressed *any* of this evidence. They dismiss the idea that hypobaric hypoxia is responsible for the altitude effect on the basis that weaker studies than the ones I mentioned here were flawed. But they never addressed those stronger pieces of evidence.
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Does anyone want a link to a draft of a blog post I'm writing, about the contamination theory of the obesity epidemic?
I think I'll be able to share the draft in ~2 days. Note that I won't necessarily share it with everyone who asks for a link.
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@Liv_Boeree
@paulg
@balajis
@waitbutwhy
@mold_time
... all of which show drastic weight loss in humans that are locked for several weeks continuously inside hypobaric chambers (that mimic high altitude).
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@mold_time
There are dozens of projects around that are *way more ambitious* and that are run by way higher-integrity teams, IMO.
(Also, oops -- I meant to say "sentences" in the second tweet in this thread)
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@mold_time
Relatedly, Matu et al. (2018) (), a systematic review of the effects of hypoxia on hunger, found that terrestrial high altitude doesn’t seem to affect hunger more than hypobaric hypoxia does (though only a small number of studies were included).
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@mold_time
According to Kevin Hall et al.'s model (), a good rule of thumb is that having 10 extra kcal/day leads to a 1 lb (0.45 kg) change in body weight in the long-term. The average American adult gained 12 kg (~26.4 lb) since the early 70s.
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@mold_time
I don’t know the reasoning behind the grant, but I’d guess it was something along the lines of “
@mold_time
's project is very ambitious, so perhaps the grant is +EV even if they have a low probability of succeeding.”
I am more sympathetic than most toward that argument, but
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@mold_time
Moving on. In the US, altitude is not the only obvious correlate of obesity rates across US states. States at the mouth of the Mississippi are more obese than you'd predict by their altitude.
@mold_time
claims that this is because of the watershed:
Obesity is less common at high altitudes because of the watershed. Environmental contaminants build up as water flows downhill and are in much higher concentrations as you approach sea level.
Compare this map of obesity by state to this map of US watersheds:
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@mold_time
has also not addressed the long list of problems I've found with their arguments and statements, such as , ,
@Liv_Boeree
@paulg
@balajis
@waitbutwhy
Uh,
@mold_time
gives *literally no reason* for why they dismiss the scientifically mainstream explanation of the effect of altitude on body weight: that it is caused by hypoxia (instead of by lack of contaminants).
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@ObserverSuns
Ford et al. (2007), looking at data from 1980-2000, estimated that “47% of this decrease was attributed to treatments,” and 44% to “changes in risk factors, including reductions in total cholesterol (24%), systolic blood pressure (20%), [and] smoking prevalence (12%)”
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@mold_time
I think I'll finish the thread here! Of course, you can look at my blog post for more.
Oh, one more thing: I think it's really bad that there are several falsehoods in
@mold_time
's posts that they have refused to fix despite being told about them.
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Hot take: natural eyes usually work just fine, & maybe our civilization should be better organized around that biological fact (by, e.g. not using glasses, microscopes or telescopes)
Hot take: natural wombs usually work just fine, & maybe our civilization should be better organized around that biological fact.
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I’ve seen a few people making this claim (that there are more underweight people nowadays), so I wanted to point out that it is false.
From 1975 to 2014, “global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men […]”
But we CAN expect to see certain statistical signatures, which may appear even in pretty small datasets
In humans, the obesity epidemic has been matched by an increase in the variance of BMI, which means more people who are overweight AND more people who are underweight
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4. Serum lithium concentration data likewise shows that lithium exposure is very low in the general population. In Canada, the median is 4,000 times lower than the lower end of the therapeutic range, and the 95th percentile is 1,383 times lower.
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@yishan
Another experiment described in the same article found that Sprague-Dawley rats with BCS3-L1 got a similar caries score to those with no S. mutans at all. But their caries score was not 0, indicating other bacteria were still causing cavities.
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“Wild animals are getting obese” is very misleading.
@mold_time
attributes the claim to this paper several times in their blog, but the paper only investigates animal populations living close to humans. 1/
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@balajis
@mold_time
These blog posts are repeatedly misleading. For instance, they literally make up the “fact” that wild animals have been getting more obese out of thin air (none of their sources show that) . 1/x
“Wild animals are getting obese” is very misleading.
@mold_time
attributes the claim to this paper several times in their blog, but the paper only investigates animal populations living close to humans. 1/
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@slatestarcodex
@MelindaBChu1
Abramovitch made the vast majority of his earnings on a single, non-predictive joke market (). I think this is important context.
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What are the best Twitter accounts, Manifold markets and websites I should keep track of to know how much of a big deal this is going to be? I.e. how many new multifamily housing units will be counterfactually added in CA?
Good morning, Bay Area. According to our evaluations, 69 of your 109 local jurisdictions are now subject to the builder's remedy. 🧵
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Therapeutic doses of lithium do not seem to cause enough weight gain to explain the obesity epidemic. (1/x)
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Adding this disclaimer I agree with to this thread.
Disclaimer: I think at least 80% of SFF's most recent grants range from good to excellent, but for community epistemics it's more valuable to point out disagreements with grantmakers.
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*in the very next sentence*, without mentioning that those studies found no change in body weight.
(this was the post: , they cited this study and this one )
Are you interested in RESEARCH? Do you like ELECTROLYTES? Do you want to EAT STRAIGHT POTASSIUM SALT AND SEE IF YOU LOSE WEIGHT???
If so, this is the blog post for you! Recruiting now for the low-dose potassium community trial. Please RT!
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@mold_time
But in that passage, they're confusing the effects of overeating for a few weeks (as people do in overfeeding studies) with those of overeating for decades. I don't think I need to use a lot of words to explain why that is flawed reasoning.
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@mold_time
If we actually try to make an educated guess on whether 456 extra kcal/day is enough to explain the change in avg body weight, we not only find that it's enough, but we find that it is way too high. Let me explain.
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Apparently
@mold_time
received a $100,000 grant from the Effective Altruism Infrastructure Fund last year, on top of their $345,000 Survival and Flourishing Fund grant.
Somehow the Survival and Flourishing Fund was impressed enough with this level of brilliant scholarly research that they recently recommended a $345,000 grant to
@mold_time
.
(This was announced last month, in .
@mold_time
is "Whylome, Inc.")
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But people who promote diets want to believe that **their** diet is special and unique and holds the secret key to effortless weight loss and is perfectly safe and has a ton of health benefits and the medical establishment has been lying to you about it for decades
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@mold_time
We don't have very good data on the incidence of anorexia nervosa, but it seems to have been largely stable over the past decades, unlike obesity, which has kept increasing.
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@ESYudkowsky
I’d imagine a fairly sizeable chuck of the EA community (unimportantly, including me) is worried about *both* chickens *and* things like GPT-3 being sentient and suffering.
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@mold_time
Moving on to the next point.
@mold_time
for some reason argues that the contaminants that supposedly caused the obesity epidemic also cause anorexia in a small # of people as a paradoxical reaction, and that that is why there are supposedly more underweight people today.
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