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Matt Lundy Profile
Matt Lundy

@mattlundy33

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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
2 months
Quick 🧵 on the Temporary Foreign Worker Program. Traditionally, it was mostly used to find farm workers from abroad. That's still a big aspect of the program. But increasingly, it's used to find low-wage cooks, cleaners and construction workers.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
1 year
I'm sure the 50% bounce in Postmedia shares today, before this press release went out, will be thoroughly investigated by our securities regulators.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
1 year
Hear me out: the government should try to decrease the value of homes.
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@JohnPasalis
John Pasalis
1 year
“Our goal is not to decrease the value of their home. Our goal is to build more units that are at a price that other people, who don’t currently have their needs met, can afford.” Housing Minister Sean Fraser
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
1 month
“We got the sequencing wrong,” say @MikePMoffatt . “We should have figured out how we’re going to build the homes, how we’re going to make sure that we have enough health care and so on, before we increase the population.”
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
1 month
An immigration firm – Canada Nest Immigration Consulting Ltd. – received approval through the Temporary Foreign Worker Program in 2022 to hire ... a journalist. Because famously, it's tough to find out-of-work journalists in Canada.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
3 years
Scotiabank report: "Canada has the lowest number of housing units per 1,000 residents of any G7 country."
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
4 years
Ontario does not like vaccinating people on weekends.
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Matt Lundy
8 months
BMO's Doug Porter: "There’s little mystery behind the ongoing surge in rents ..."
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
1 year
Someone needs to FOI this tweet. (I’d imagine there were 37 staffers and weeks of planning involved.)
@JustinTrudeau
Justin Trudeau
1 year
@taylorswift13 It’s me, hi. I know places in Canada would love to have you. So, don’t make it another cruel summer. We hope to see you soon.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
1 month
Employers are using the TFW program for occupations that they barely considered a few years ago. Case in point: administrative assistants. Companies were approved to hire > 3,500 of these positions last year, an increase of 3,090% from 2016.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
1 year
"On Monday, he trotted out the tiniest news: 214 homes in Hamilton. The fact that Ottawa thought such a minor announcement was worthy of a press conference with the Prime Minister shows a poor grasp of reality."
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
10 months
Quick 🧵: Yesterday was an embarrassment on here. So many people gleefully said Canada had entered a recession – not realizing that Statscan makes revisions to earlier GDP figures. We are inundated with blue-checks who are completely clueless about the economy.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
5 months
🧵 Here's an updated look at how employers are using the Temporary Foreign Worker Program. I thought companies would throttle back their use of TFWP because of rising unemployment, lots of int'l students already in Canada, etc. I was wrong. (1/9)
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
1 year
👀 National Bank note: "As housing affordability pressures continue to mount across the country, we believe Ottawa should consider revising its immigration targets to allow supply to catch up with demand."
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
4 months
Revenue idea for the CBC: sue Bloomberg over this logo.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
1 year
🧵We've seen a big spike in employers trying to hire people through the low-wage stream of the Temporary Foreign Worker program. Let's dig into the numbers. (1/6)
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
2 years
One of the least-talked-about shifts in Canadian labour over the past few years.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
3 years
NEW: Loads of workers are resigning, right? It's an idea that's taken hold in the pandemic recovery, that we're reassessing our work lives – and deciding to shake things up. Well, it turns out there's little evidence of a 'Great Resignation' in Canada.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
2 months
Here's a chart I watch closely. Employers were approved to fill > 89K positions in the low-wage stream of the TFW program over the 12 months thru March 31, 2024. The gap is closing with the agriculture stream.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
10 months
Meanwhile, in reality ...
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@sunlorrie
Lorrie Goldstein
10 months
Canada faces declining EV interest, report shows, despite push to boost sales
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Matt Lundy
1 year
Canada's mortgage delinquency rate is about the lowest it's been in 30+ years. Just as we all predicted when the Bank of Canada started hiking interest rates over a year ago.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
1 year
Second sentence: "For students who rent, families who own, and young couples looking to buy their first home, the lack of housing supply is not a political issue ..." I assure you, we think it's political!
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
4 years
There are thousands of people covering the NBA, but only two people consistently break news stories. I need to know why that is. No other sphere of journalism works like this.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
2 years
At the end of 2022, there were nearly 2M people in Canada with temporary work or study permits, an increase of 560K (40%) from a year earlier.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
3 months
Not great.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
5 months
📉 The average millennial household saw its net worth drop by > $40K last year – the only generation to experience a decline, according to new Statscan numbers.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
8 months
"An immigration system aiming for high numbers of low-skill workers ... may make it easy to get an Uber Eats meal at any hour of the day. But it’s not fostering a high-productivity, high-wage, low-inequality economy. It’s delivering the opposite."
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Matt Lundy
1 year
BMO note: "With the construction industry already building at full speed to satisfy domestic demand, we clearly don’t have the infrastructure or ability to meet the additional demand created by historic immigration levels. That is reflected in a worsened affordability problem."
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
1 year
🏠 Statscan says about 33% of non-permanent residents live in "unsuitable housing" with not enough bedrooms. For the rest of the population, about 9% are in that situation. Source:
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
11 months
Marc Miller a few minutes ago: "We are a country that has become quite addicted to temporary foreign workers ..." Here's a gov't decision last week to *extend* measures for hiring *more* low-wage TFWs:
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
1 month
Many of the employers getting approved for admin workers are trucking companies and ... immigration consultants. Seems fishy. A consultant I spoke with says this is a probable area of fraud, ie. people paying for LMIA-approved jobs.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
2 months
Things really change around 2022. Yes, we had tight labour markets then, but also rule changes that gave employers more access to temporary foreign workers (see the link). The federal gov't is tightening up TFWP, but not to pre-2022 rules.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
4 years
Unemployment rates for racialized Canadians are much higher than for white Canadians – especially so for women.
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Matt Lundy
5 months
A whopping increase to 0.12% (from 0.07%) 🤦‍♂️
@BetterDwelling
Better Dwelling
5 months
Toronto Mortgage Delinquency Rate Surges 71% Higher #ToRe #ToRe
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
2 years
My contribution. If you're not covered by rent control, or have to move, rents are a mess everywhere.
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@globeandmail
The Globe and Mail
2 years
2023 in charts: Experts predict what’s to come for housing, jobs, wages and more
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
4 months
🧵 It's been a 16-month wait, but we're getting a great Statscan release on Wednesday: subprovincial population estimates. We're talking tons of data on migration patterns for cities and towns. Here's a quick look at recent trends:
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
4 years
I asked @francesdonald about long-term challenges in recovering jobs. Her quote is a) too perfect to cut, so b) I'm sharing it in full here.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
30 days
“Loosening the rules in 2022 should have never happened. While Monday’s changes are welcome, what would be more welcome is an immigration policy that does not react to the latest news and instead focuses on long-term results.”
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
2 months
There are other streams in the TFW program – but they're nowhere near as popular with employers as the agriculture and low-wage streams.
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Matt Lundy
2 years
TD pulls no punches in a new report: “The savings and investing landscape is so heavily skewed towards housing because the housing system itself is designed to perpetuate inequality between homeowners and non-owners ...”
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
2 months
In Q1, these were the most sought after positions in the low-wage stream. It's largely about food.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
2 years
We have vague plans of building more homes. The reality is that we're building less. (Housing starts fell 13% in January to an annual rate of 215K.) Once again: where is everyone supposed to live?
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Matt Lundy
3 years
Tomorrow, @StatCan_eng is releasing subprovincial population estimates – basically, detailed population figures for our cities/towns. It may sound kinda boring, but it reveals A LOT about Canada's home affordability troubles and migration. A quick 🧵 on recent numbers:
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
1 year
In just a few months, the conversation around Canada's immigration policy has shifted dramatically. Honestly, I'm not sure a freelance column like this would have been published a year ago.
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Matt Lundy
2 years
The largest contributor to annual inflation in Canada is now mortgage interest costs. Expect this to climb even higher. (Obviously, this is obscuring some of the progress in driving price growth lower.)
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
3 years
New: Despite all the anecdotes, the "Great Resignation" still isn't much of a trend in Canada. And looking ahead, only 7.3% of people are planning to leave their jobs in the coming year, Statscan recently found (vs. 16.1% in 2016).
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
2 months
And in the same quarter, here are the top employers who sought low-wage labour, by number of positions they were approved for. (Not many household names and mostly connected to fish/seafood processing.)
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
1 month
Here are some of the CMAs where they'll stop processing low-wage LMIAs because the unemployment is ≥ 6%: -Toronto -Ottawa-Gatineau -Hamilton -London -Calgary -Edmonton -Oshawa -Niagara -etc.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
2 years
At the end of 2022, there were > 800,000 study permit holders in Canada, an increase of 31% in just one year. (2020/21 were somewhat suppressed due to Covid.)
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Matt Lundy
4 years
Via BMO, a currency-adjusted look at home prices. Canada is running 40% to 50% above the U.S.
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Matt Lundy
3 years
Last week, I asked Desjardins chief economist Jimmy Jean why he didn't expect the Bank of Canada to hike rates today. He was right on the money.
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Matt Lundy
5 months
Generational fairness you say?
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Matt Lundy
3 years
Some inflation context:
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Matt Lundy
2 months
Wild timing after my story: "Minister Boissonnault also informed business associations that he is considering implementing refusal to process under the low wage stream. If implemented, this would prevent employers in certain areas and industries from using the TFW Program."
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
1 year
📈 New population figures are out: As of July 1, there were roughly 2.2-million temporary residents in Canada. That's up 46% in one year.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
1 year
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
2 years
One of the most concerning things for Canada's economy.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
5 months
First, here are the number of approved positions by quarter. Q4 of last year was easily the largest three-month period for approvals in the dataset. The federal gov't broadened access to TFWs in early 2022, paving the way for a boom in recruitment. (2/9)
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
5 months
Every quarter, restaurants are approved to hire thousands of food-service workers. Looking at approvals for cooks, "food service supervisors" and "counter attendants," here are the top 10 employers by labour demand in Q4. (4/9)
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
10 months
Here's a scorecard: Is Canada in a recession? No. Could it enter one soon? Yes. Has GDP per capita stagnated for years? Yes. Is GDP per capita used to determine what is a recession? No.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
5 months
For years, approvals in the low and high-wage streams were largely similar. Then a gap emerges in early 2022. In April of that year, the federal gov't allowed companies to hire a larger % of their staff from the low-wage stream. (6/9)
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Matt Lundy
3 years
For employers, the solution may be simple: raise wages. “It makes no sense to talk about a labour shortage without talking about wages,” says @mikalskuterud . Under current circumstances, “there will be upward pressures on wages.”
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
1 year
Anyway, here's the short story I wrote on Canada's growing reliance on low-wage TFWs. More to come in the months ahead. (6/6)
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
3 years
New: For the average worker, wages aren't keeping up with inflation – and it's been that way for much of the past year.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
2 years
NEW: Peak inflation? It's too early to call, but we could very well look back on this moment – when crude oil, wheat and lumber were tumbling in price – as the start of a new phase in the inflation fight.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
1 month
Administrative assistants are a TEER 3 occupation – meaning, work experience in this role makes you eligible for the Express Entry program for immigration. As one consultant said, this is one of the "lower-skilled" jobs that puts you in the pool of candidates.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
8 days
So when the unemployment rate is back in the low 5% range, the TFW program will be expanding again? Am I getting that right?
@mikalskuterud
Mikal Skuterud
8 days
Randy's accordion *perfectly* captures the thinking underlying the Fed's mismanagement of the TFW Program. The Program was never intended to deal with cyclical labour market tightness. God forbid we allow cyclical tightness to increase workers' wages and labour productivity!
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
3 years
13.6% of workers in Canada are self-employed, the lowest share since 1982.
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Matt Lundy
1 year
📈 Canadians' credit card debt is spiking, after declining in the early stages of the pandemic.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
5 months
The feds have recently announced tighter restrictions for TFWP, given that the labour market is weakening. Still, most companies outside of seasonal industries (eg. agriculture) can hire up to 20% of their staff from the low-wage stream. Prior to 2022, it was 10%. (8/9)
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Matt Lundy
10 months
📈 Rents are surging across Canada. The Atlantic provinces are getting hit hardest. This is looking at the change in rents since fall 2019, based on Statcan's Consumer Price Index. (Asking rents for new listings will differ.)
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
1 year
If you want a longer read on the TFW program – its history, controversies and recent changes – here's a piece I co-wrote with @VanmalaS last year. (7/6)
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
1 year
Feel like this has gone under the radar: Of late, the youth unemployment rate (9.2%) in Canada is the lowest we've ever seen. 📉
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
10 months
Several things can be true at once: Economic growth has stagnated *and* we aren't in a recession *and* per capita GDP is on par with 2017 levels.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
2 years
@sys14793 Hi Saira, I'm a reporter with the Globe and Mail and writing about PGWP. Can you DM me? Thanks.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
5 months
To this point, the data show approvals, not hires. Just because a company gets the go-ahead to hire 10 cooks doesn't mean they'll find people to fill those positions. But clearly, many people from abroad are getting the required work permits. (7/9)
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
5 months
In Q4, slightly more than half of approvals came from the agriculture streams of TFWP. Another big source of labour demand? The low-income stream. (3/9)
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
3 years
In the U.S., people are quitting in droves. But for job-switchers, there's not a big uptick among the professional class. “This is not well-off people reimagining their lives,” said @Claudia_Sahm .
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
5 months
A note on the above: The top two operate McDonald's franchises. (Also, "Tim Hortons" is likely combining several franchises, but also missing locations that fall under different corporate names.) (5/9)
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
3 years
A milestone for Canada's job market: employment is on par with Feb. 2020, when the pandemic arrived. A major accomplishment, but still lots of work ahead.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
1 year
It … already has?
@globeandmail
The Globe and Mail
1 year
Housing affordability will deteriorate unless we act soon: CMHC chief economist
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
1 year
We're going to see a backlash from potential immigrants who, after studying/working in Canada for years, struggle to get permanent residence. They played the game, only the gov't is frequently changing the rules of the game.
@ZeynabZiaie
Zeynab Ziaie
1 year
EE draw yesterday - all program draw - 2000 ITAs issued w/ CRS 517. What happens to intl students that study & work diligently to make the economy run? Targeted draws may be needed in certain fields, but the plight of 1000s of intl student living in limbo is horrendous./1
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
3 years
New: Job vacancies have soared to unprecedented numbers, the latest sign of tightness in Canada's labour market.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
6 months
Huge move + a big reason why apartment construction started to crater decades ago.
@MikePMoffatt
Dr. Mike P. Moffatt 🇨🇦🏅🏅
6 months
WOW... this one is *huge* (and nerdy). The federal government is bringing back a 10% Accelerated Capital Cost Allowance for purpose-built rentals. This was one of the key recommendations of both the National Housing Accord and Blueprint for More and Better Housing.
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@mattlundy33
Matt Lundy
10 months
Immigration Minister Marc Miller just said "there are labour shortages across the country." He extended a temporary measure that allows int'l students to work unlimited hours off-campus.
@mikalskuterud
Mikal Skuterud
10 months
Amazing to me that people are *still* talking about a "labour shortage crisis" caused by aging demographics.
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