David Puell
@dpuellARK
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On-chain research @ARKInvest | I like #Bitcoin , Books, and Bebop | Disclosure:
Joined May 2017
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Pinned Tweet
The Bitcoin Monthly is out! Let's go through some charts in the wake of the most recent Halving Day...
[Full report here: ]
On the first day of May, Bitcoin corrected to its short-term-holder cost basis at $59,300.
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I’m glad to announce that I will be doing crypto and on-chain research for
@ARKInvest
. Taking
#Bitcoin
on-chain analytics to the next level with the ARK Team is a dream come true. Excited for things to come!
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Heard this kid has come a long way. This DM was sent when his account was at less than 10k followers.
Perfect example of how self-education and hard work (and good meme game) are highly-valued characteristics in the crypto meritocracy.
@WClementeIII
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$BTC: I have the pleasure of introducing the most interesting top-detecting model I've seen for Bitcoin. This metric is a full
@_Checkmatey_
original. The lad was awesome enough to let me present it to you for the first time.
1/ Meet "terminal price" (red below)...
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Mexico's third richest man, owner of a media conglomerate, a bank, with the ear of the Mexican President, just disclosed his 10% BTC position, shilling
@saifedean
's "The Bitcoin Standard" in the process.
"Bitcoin protects the common citizen against government expropriation."
Hoy les recomiendo EL PATRÓN BITCOIN, este libro es el mejor y más importante para entender
#Bitcoin
.
El Bitcoin protege al ciudadano de la expropiación gubernamental.
Muchas personas me preguntan si tengo bitcoins, SÍ. Tengo el 10% de mi portafolio líquido invertido en el 😌💵
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The total value transacted in USD on the
#Bitcoin
network just passed the 100 trillion mark.
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Our analysis suggests that
#Bitcoin
, proportional to supply held by long-term holders (LTH), is at its most deflationary in history.
1/ Introducing LTH Market Inflation/Deflation Ratio, created in collaboration with
@_Checkmatey_
(Glassnode).
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$BTC: I adjusted
@WClementeIII
's supply shock ratio for total circulating supply. Gives an oscillating behavior. Looks healthy today.
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Culturally, if I had to pick an exact date when
#Bitcoin
went mainstream, it would be today.
One of the most disruptive figures in 21st-Centory history declared his skin in the game in one of its most disruptive technologies.
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There's few candles in the history of
#Bitcoin
that are worthy of a name of their own. You know, like chess openings...
We shall name this, "Elon's Candle."
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#BTC
: That's a massive spike in open interest today, combined with still positive derivatives premium. Neither premium nor OI seem yet wiped.
This spike is not CME, as it seems to be Binance.
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The Bitfinex hack seizure is in my view a great example of how on-chain transparency provided useful information to the public domain about a week ago.
1/ On January 31st, several on-chain metrics spiked in a seemingly atypical fashion:
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Historically, whenever price surpasses terminal price, a top can be detected, yet it usually it goes above it by 20% to 60%. Assuming bullish momentum is still in effect, a rounded median of this range would aim for a top at $112.4k USD. That or the top has already been given.
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$BTC: About to battle magnificents foes, the monthly and quartely resistances at $13,800-$13,900.
Fight might be bloody and tiresome, but once we claim victory, lads, by all means, all bets are off...
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$BTC:
1/ BAD NEWS: We haven't bottomed yet.
GOOD NEWS: The bottom is not that far away.
Thread...
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$BTC: You heard all the bullish narratives, so let me give you the few bearish ones:
1. Whales are supressing price to position from lower.
2. Whales are profit-taking with the hopes of positioning from lower.
So, yeah, even bearish narratives are bullish narratives now.
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$BTC: Introducing Delta Capitalization and MVDV Ratio: an experimental valuation model for catching Bitcoin tops, bottoms, and cycle lengths.
Shoutout to
@woonomic
for the pretty charts and the awesome collab.
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1/ As both utter self-shill and major thank-you to all the people who have inspired or co-authored my work, this is a retrospective of the metrics I've created or co-created since 2018, used in the industry today—and the story they tell.
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$BTC: Apparently, there's fear in this market.
Consider me shocked.
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#Bitcoin
's public skepticism by reputable sources peaked in 2017.
Despite higher prices, 2021 stood at a 62% reduction in skepticism compared to that 2017 all-time high.
Either skeptics are less in number, or less willing to stake their reputation in being wrong about Bitcoin.
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$BTC: Introducing
@coinmetrics
' brand new transaction volume estimates. (Shoutout to
@nic__carter
,
@khannib
, and
@panekkkk
for the data.)
A thread on why it is so beautiful, at least from an analyst's perspective...
1/ Velocity—a.k.a. inverse NVT ratio (7-day median smooth):
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$BTC: Grayscale added 30k BTC to its trust just this week. That equals about one month of new issuance.
So, for the week, $GBTC's demand side is 4x the potential supply side of all natural sellers in the
#Bitcoin
market.
H/T:
@Travis_Kling
.
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$BTC: Officially a +50% correction.
First one in more than a year.
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$BTC: Getting reports that the most awesomely-named indicator just gave its fifth buy signal in BTC history.
Looking good, yes, but remember that Puell Multiple reacts to hash rate movements too, and hash rate follows price, not the other way around.
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$BTC: Little something for ya...
1. A reminder of how beautiful the 200-day and 200-week moving averages are.
2. Bitcoin's 200-day median, which just flipped to bullish and should serve as support in the next few months (currently at 4k).
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$BTC: Updated dormancy flow, which I don't recall seeing live. Hasn't crossed its bull/bear threshold. IMO this is not bearish, since the current primary trend is quite obvious. It instead makes me wonder: how much higher does price has to go to get this anywhere near overbought?
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$BTC: NVT Signal with brand new
@coinmetrics
transaction volume data.
Tells a much clearer picture of the current state of affairs. Loving it.
@woonomic
,
@MustStopMurad
, and I have more on this later.
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If you are new
#Bitcoin
investor, make sure to prepare your psyche to the hash wars, the PlusTokens, the COVIDs, the Elon tweets, the BlockFi botched giveaways of this world.
Only way to survive, not sell bottoms, and live healthier over the long term.
Always assume a swan.
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I’ve always loved this Brandt chart.
Makes you feel like a pale blue dot in a time axis.
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For the newbs or the shitcoiners, the essence of Bitcoin in a simple graph.
(Based on
@pierre_rochard
.)
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$BTC: Another update on one of my favorite indicators.
MVRV Z-Score is basically MVRV ratio adjusted for volatility. It now makes its debut in log view...
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$BTC: Liveliness cycles, composed of:
1. A Great Flatline, each longer than the previous. Occurs in bear-bull phases of low profit-taking.
2. A 25%-30% increase that usually occurs in little over a year. Occurs from new ATHs into full irrational exuberance.
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$BTC: Let your mind contemplate the market scenario that would absolutely destroy the most people...
How about, from here, a dead-cat-bull-trap to $8,100 and then dump to $4,300, followed by months of boring, boring sideways?
"The Rekening."
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$BTC: Few experiments with
@glassnode
's liquidity-supply metrics that were recently published, shown below (as of Jan. 3).
1/ A brief thread...
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Hypothesis: By tracking
#Bitcoin
YoY supply change, Asia vs. the US, might one determine the world region that rules price action?
When all this FTX fiasco calms down, I'm going to keep an eye on Asia.
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$BTC: Even better that watching the rip, it's watching it without fucking S&P with it.
Fly, baby girl, be your own thing. Like the wind.
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Two more confirmations to look for and we gucci:
4. SOPR chops and stabilizes above 1.
5. SOPR retests 1 on a price dump and that serves as local bottom.
SOPR looks bullish for 3 reasons:
- Double Bottom
- Bull Div
- Back >1 (BTC market is no longer selling at a loss)
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Earthquakes are unpredictable, but whoever coded our simulation should fix a bug:
Mexico City was hit in 1985 and 2017 by its most devastating quakes on, guess when: September 19th.
In fact, there was a city-wide anniversary simulacrum an hour before today's quake hit the city.
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$BTC: 19k then 20k then crash to 12k or 14k?
Imagine such God-given gift...
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$BTC: Two charts, one of which has me very calm and another hellah worried.
Good times.
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$BTC: Waiting for price to give more hints about what's it gonna do next, this is one of the few scenarios I'm considering.
The market structure since the November dump has been one of the most interesting I've ever seen.
I love my job.
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It's so easy to outcompete
#Bitcoin
! Here's how in 7 simple steps...
Note: This list was based in part on the insights of
@_Kevin_Pham
,
@pierre_rochard
,
@jimmysong
,
@saifedean
, and others.
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$BTC: I had the honor of writing this new piece on Bitcoin Average Dormancy with Reggie Smith (
@SupremeVinegar
), inventor of the concept.
Three brand new on-chain indicators here. Enjoy!
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Fucking tired of the hodler/trader dichotomy. As if we weren't in the same team, just playing different roles...
Mini-rant:
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1/ Nearly half of bitcoin’s supply hasn’t moved in over 2 years, headed to an all-time high.
New edition of The Bitcoin Monthly is out:
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Can't believe I missed this.
Well, let's give it a proper intro. This is the
#Bitcoin
Satoshian Cap, which gives all its generational bottoms so far.
Actual on-chain research:
@whale_map
.
Rationale:
@girevik_
.
Dude who just put a name on it: me.
@kenoshaking
This cohort is much lower than others simply because it contains all the 50 BTC mining rewards from 2009, valued at $0. I.e. what is typically assumed to be Satoshi’s coins.
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Highest Bitcoin weekly volume print on Coinbase ever in the aftermath of the fall of FTX/Alameda.
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$BTC: Couple of my metrics just went live on
@glassnode
, both for confirming cycle bottoms.
1/ Delta cap = realized cap - average cap
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$BTC: $4,300, a target I've been calling for for months, has now been met...
1/ Have we bottomed?
With the evidence at hand, I don't think so...
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$BTC: Price is not only parabolic, but vertical now.
Shorts are still far from getting fully squeezed.
$6.4k may activate longs from late trend traders, setting up the perfect blow-off top.
Blue: pullback targets after this potential climactic top from who knows where.
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$BTC: SMAs and RSI, keeping it back-to-basics.
Different market structure; similar tale.
The weekly close is crucial to confirm this.
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$BTC: Below, binary coindays destroyed by
@hansthered
, but with a twist: a monthly moving average is applied.
Whenever the metrics caps at 0.9 to 1, irrational exuberance can be inferred.
Main outlier is 2017, where CDD saw a major spike do to the Bitcoin Cash fork.
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The
#Bitcoin
Monthly for August, done in collaboration with
@WClementeIII
is live!
Thread:
1/ Bitcoin has lost its 200w MA at $27,580, with realized price as stronger downside risk support at $20,300.
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$BTC:
1/ So here's the deal with all the PlusToken news we've been seeing recently in the crypto media. Thing is, tho it's just being reported now after the Chinese government put out official balances,
@ErgoBTC
blew this story open for the on-chain community over a year ago...
Let me get this straight, Chen Bo, the mastermind of PlusToken (arrested in June 2019), was entrusted with selling PlusToken's BTC, via a third party business, on behalf of the CCP?
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In other words:
1. The former (short- to midterm) holds attention to derivatives premia, open interest, among others.
2. The latter (mid- to long-term) holds attention to on-chain activity.
3. Both are fundamental, not technical, analyses.
Trading shorter time frames is about solving the following feedback loop: Liquidity (volume, orderflow, sentiment) vs. price action.
Trading longer time frames is about solving the following feedback loop: Valuation vs. price discovery.
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Sweet reminder: Bitcoin is currently the 16th largest asset by market cap in the world.
Source:
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1) It has been a long road since the Bitcoin top of 2017. Herein, a nowhere-near complete summary of what has transpired.
Next below, a brief thread on few interesting tidbits. Shoutout to
@whale_map
for the innovative on-chain metrics.
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$SPX: About to test a 10-year trendline on OBV, the cumulative testament of the victory of buyers over sellers since the end of the Financial Crisis.
Hopes and fears; work and debt; dreamers and phantasms await the roar of a beast most majestic.
America.
Merry Christmas...
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$BTC: Heaviest options expirations have corrective max pain targets. Aligns with current unhealthy futures premia.
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I had the honor of co-authoring this new white paper on
#Bitcoin
on-chain analysis with
@_Checkmatey_
from
@glassnode
.
18 months in the making, two publications, 120+ pages of material, 30+ new or improved on-chain metrics.
Goes live tomorrow.
Coming Tomorrow - A collaborative white paper with
@Glassnode
18 months in the making. Don't miss it, subscribe now to receive your copy.
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A market phenomenon which in my opinion is relevant to discuss:
1/ BTC to USD/stablecoin collateralization in futures is noticeable. Ratioed out, BTC to USD collateral in open interest has dropped about 25% YTY.
(Chart by Glassnode).
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The Bitcoin Monthly for March is out!
Amidst the largest banking crisis since 2008-2009,
#Bitcoin
has flourished, being the best performer amongst top defensive assets.
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Part 3 of my collaboration with
@yassineARK
and
@ARKInvest
, with data by
@glassnode
, is out.
This time we feature five brand new original metrics.
Check it out and enjoy.
Analyzing BTC's price action without using on-chain data is like valuing a company without using its financials
On-chain data is BTC's ultimate valuation tool
Just published “A Framework for Valuing BTC” w/
@kenoshaking
feat 5 new ARK on-chain indicators
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Three Laws of Capitulation:
1. It hurts not like slow torture but like a swift arrow to the chest. Its wounds, if you survive, are forgotten sooner than they should.
2. If unprepared, the more you want to sell, the more likely the market bottomed.
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Fun fact: as of end of 2023, the number of Big Macs you can buy with 1 bitcoin surpassed 10 thousand for the first time.
Powerful burgernomics.
H/T:
@QuantMario
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$BTC: Friend of mine asked what are the core concepts to grasp in order to understand the field of on-chain analytics. Apart from the obvious market cap, price, and supply, the following are musts:
1. Transaction volume.
2. Coindays destroyed.
3. Realized cap.
4. HODL waves.
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$BTC: I am scared to bid this insanity, but...
Le long... le long...
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Join us next Wednesday, 6 pm ET!
@natemaddrey
,
@_Checkmatey_
,
@hansthered
, and I will discuss:
1. On-chain archeology and forensics.
2. What are on-chain heuristics?
3. The open-source nature of on-chain analysis.
4. On-chain skepticism?
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As of day 3 of 2022, I'm pretty sure we already got:
1. The most hilarious tweet of the year.
2. The strangest tweet of the year.
3. The most insane tweet (or thread) of the year.
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#BTC
: On-chain context for this transaction...
1. Yes, movement of coins in the 7y-10y age band is a predictor for tops.
2. Since 2017, it is not uncommon behavior from a long term perspective.
💤💤💤💤💤💤💤💤💤💤 A dormant address containing 2,207
#BTC
(150,512,129 USD) has just been activated after 8.1 years (worth 294,287 USD in 2013)!
1K
2K
13K
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1/ Two new
#Bitcoin
on-chain metrics that look interesting to me:
Blue:
@CryptoVizArt
's median volume trend, which seems to suggest retail participation above 1 (or a lack of it below 1).
Red:
@PrfDude
's exit liquidity risk, which seems to detect spending outliers above 3.
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$BTC: Current state of price models:
1/$4,200: Realized price is the average of what the market paid for their coins. It should serve as resistance, since weak hands dump at break-even (see 2015).
$2,823: Delta price accelerates to new lows, forming a fishnet with NVT prices.
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“We cross our bridges when we come to them and burn them behind us, with nothing to show for our progress except a memory of the smell of smoke, and a presumption that once our eyes watered.”
―Tom Stoppard
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3/ Next, a ratio dividing highly liquid supply by illiquid supply, showing a major inflection point after the COVID panic. Since then, the number of illiquid coins relative to the most liquid coins has increased to an extent never seen before in the history of Bitcoin.
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#Bitcoin
supply elasticity continues to decrease.
1. Long-term-holder supply just made all-time highs.
2. Highly hodled or lost coins are at levels not seen since October, 2020.
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2022 will be the Year of Tests for
#Bitcoin
:
1. Harshest macro environment in Bitcoin's history.
2. Systemic contagion of hydra-like form and proportion (Terra, Celsius, 3AC...).
3. Unlocking of Mt. Gox coins at nearly 35x profit.
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Yes, no tweets in almost a month. Mea culpa.
But what am I supposed to post? "Yep, looks bullish?"
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1/ Bitcoin's 200-day and 200-week moving averages. So simple.
The former has the word on bull-bear dynamics; the latter seems to stand as one of the best bottom-catchers around.
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My collaboration with
@yassineARK
over the last year, a three-part series covering all basic aspects and several complex aspects of on-chain analysis, is out as a single, updated whitepaper.
This should serve as the ultimate guide for anyone delving into this emergent field.
Just published the ultimate manifesto on the power of on-chain data w/
@kenoshaking
This is the culmination of all the work we’ve done this year developing a framework to assess Bitcoin’s fundamentals.
On-chain data = alpha
Enjoy.
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$BTC valuations support cluster with volume profile and OHLC confluences...
Delta price: 2.9k.
NVT price (320): 2.5k.
NVT price (200): 2.3k.
NVT price (128): 2,1k.
Average price: 1.3k
Why I disagree with
@Sawcruhteez
and stand
#BullishWithMurad
,
@MustStopMurad
.
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@WClementeIII
Clemente waking time allocation:
33% charts.
33% drawing frogs by hand, scanning them, and Photoshopping them into his photography catalogue.
33% Blockware Solutions, LLC.
1% food and beverages.
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Introducting the Bitcoin MVRV ratio in co-authorship with
@MustStopMurad
.
Many thanks to
@nic__carter
,
@khannib
,
@woonomic
,
@Kalichkin
.
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If I had only five landmark moments in the history of
#Bitcoin
on-chain analysis to pick as the most crucial for the field, these would be my selection:
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$BTC: A buddy tried to troll me by asking, "What's your favorite Bitcoin chart, brah?"
0/ Here's my honest attempt at a top 3. They were selected trying to cover multiple analytical perspectives, as well as keeping with charts that provide a lasting signal-over-noise.
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$BTC: Introducing Cumulative Value-Days Destroyed (CVDD) and Balanced Price with
@woonomic
!
Full article:
Thread:
Introducing Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) and Balanced Price. New experimental models using the early metric of Bitcoin Days Destroy. Check
@kenoshaking
's handle very shortly for Balanced Price, I'll dig into CVDD here.
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Scenario that looks interesting to me:
Cost basis of short-term holders (STH) is below cost basis of long-term holders (LTH), shown in green here.
In other words: STH-MVRV > LTH-MVRV.
LTH realized price: $31.7k.
STH realized price: $22.2k.
H/T:
@_Checkmatey_
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$BTC: If we get there, beware the bull trap, lads. Lots of work yet to be done.
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This extract from an essay I never finished popped up today.
It will be my pinned tweet for now and shall be finished before
#Bitcoin
hits $100k (in, you know, apparently, couple of weeks or something).
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1/ As advice for Bitcoiners building their citadel library, I wanted to briefly list which are the essential volumes that without fault should be included in its literary section.
Thread:
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$BTC: Derivs premium sucks, but, hey: quarterly coindays destroyed at all-time lows.
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