First, its formula: Checkmate took one of my inventions—transferred price, which I used as subtractive value to create balanced price—and applied to it a multiplier instead: terminal price = transferred price * 21

In his own words: "This creates a sort of 'terminal' value as the supply is all mined. It's basically a reverse supply adjustment. Instead of heavily weighting later behavior, it normalises historical behavior to today. By normalizing by 21, you create a terminal value."

This metric can be now catalogued in within the set of transferred price derivatives, which aim to bring coindays destroyed into the price domain. Ideally, balanced price for bottoms and terminal price for tops. Today, terminal price stands at $80.3k USD.

I've tried experimenting with thermo price, another usual subtractive measure applied to realized cap, to asses for coins created as opposed to destroyed, and wasn't impressed with the results (teal below). So this seems to work (for now) only with transferred price.

Historically, whenever price surpasses terminal price, a top can be detected, yet it usually it goes above it by 20% to 60%. Assuming bullish momentum is still in effect, a rounded median of this range would aim for a top at $112.4k USD. That or the top has already been given.

Fin/ @glassnode , wen live for the masses?

@kenoshaking @_Checkmatey_ 🔥🔥

@kenoshaking @_Checkmatey_ @ColinTCrypto check it out pls

@kenoshaking @_Checkmatey_ @readwiseio save

@kenoshaking @TXMCtrades @_Checkmatey_ i know the top is a lot closer than the moon boys are calling for. This indicator bears that out unfortunately.

@kenoshaking @_Checkmatey_ Two on-chain legends, great work!

@kenoshaking @_Checkmatey_ 🤝

@kenoshaking @_Checkmatey_ LMAO - say that to the 7bn population that doesnt own any yet….

@kenoshaking @_Checkmatey_ Great stuff! 🔥 Looking forward to seeing how it will perform in the coming months and whether it will catch the top.

@kenoshaking @_Checkmatey_ I’ve said it before but I don’t the retail get euphoric until 100k hits then we engage blow off.

@kenoshaking @_Checkmatey_ How do you build models on @glassnode ?

@kenoshaking @_Checkmatey_ @AllenAu11 is this similar to your model?

@kenoshaking @TXMCtrades @_Checkmatey_ Look at mine

@kenoshaking @_Checkmatey_ Lol the analysis paralysis is getting real. All of these assume the cycles play out the same way, but we are already very late relative to the halving so of course the top price comes up short. If you do it again in a month it’ll be even lower (same price level)