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2025 has been the year when the most old coin $ value has come back to life. 🟣$13.3B worth of coins aged 10yrs+ (with ~$9.5B from that one guy with 80k BTC). 🔵$16.2B from 7 to 10yr coins 🟢$22.7B From 5y to 7y (1-2 cycle holders) Total 5y+ revived supply in 2025 is $52.2B

Fantastic look at the guts of the market right now with @_Checkmatey_ and @1basemoney. TL;DW the probabilities favor this being a dip-buying opportunity, not a bear market/cycle top.

Let's check on chain then...

Going Live with @1basemoney https://t.co/Lr9AJiCp2U

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Good morning, going live with @_Checkmatey_ in about 30 mins. Lots to talk about, will be a good one.🌞

...but don't believe the doomers. They are wrong. Bitcoin is the perfect asset for this environment, and dips are opportunities for winners to stay humble and stack sats. Watch for signs of capitulation, have a plan to buy pain, & execute it if we get there. Fuck the bears.

...but don't believe the doomers. They are wrong. Bitcoin is the perfect asset for this environment, and dips are opportunities for winners to stay humble and stack sats. Watch for signs of capitulation, have a plan to buy pain, & execute it if we get there. Fuck the bears.

There has been a tremendous rotation of coins in 2025, and a lions share of it has occurred above $95k. We don't want to see the price fall below $95k, but I also expect the bulls to mount one hell of a fight to defend it. Prepare for a bear....

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It should be pretty obvious, that all Bitcoiners should mentally prepare for a bear market here. But also, ask yourself, do you really see it going down -75%? Lot's of folks believe the 4yr cycle, but if the bear is a -35% or -40%, will they really buy the bottom?

On the flip-side, there is still a decent bull case to be made. In Max Pain, I illustrate how there is actually upside gravity coming from overconfident options writers. https://t.co/R38TQkRHb9 In Fresh Eyes, I talk through the sell-side, and how well the market is handling it.

In Hanging On By a Thread, & On the Cusp, I laid out the bear case, and how momentum was clearly waning. I have a thesis for where a bear market floor may be hammered out if needed, but hopefully we won't need to test it just yet. https://t.co/rEfJeyxnDO

There are a few key pieces that help illustrate my views (all pay-walled, because I value my time, and my clients time). In Why The Hell Are People Selling?, I profile who is currently weighing on the price, and what we can read into their behaviours. https://t.co/5oldRbUen4

The current market conditions are some of the hardest to read in my experience. Many of my pieces at @_checkonchain in recent months have covered both the bull & bear cases. Nobody can predict the future. But we can prepare our decisions, so we are never surprised when it moves

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Both the 2024 and 2025 dips so far saw losses reach 7-8% of the market cap, and historical bear markets kick off > 10%. Obviously nobody wants to make that call AFTER the price has already fallen, which is why $95k is a critical line in the sand to hold, as it deteriorates below

63% of capital invested has a cost basis above $95k. $95k is what I believe is the bulls last stand, because as price falls below that level, unrealised losses will swell significantly. Losses are -$20B today, and this is around 3% of the market cap in relative scale.

At $100k, 57% of all the dollars invested in Bitcoin are now underwater We price every coin when it last transacted onchain, and this helps us interpret sentiment based on our recency bias We don't think about our coins from prior cycles as much as the ones we bought 3-days ago

Treasury Companies are starting to sell their coins. This is good to see. The forest fire of bad ideas needs to sweep through and clear out all of this dead wood.

Why The Hell Are People Selling? https://t.co/5oldRbUen4

Why the Hell Are People Selling Bitcoin? My latest piece is out for @_checkonchain subscribers. The topic...well, it's in the heading. Link below.