QuantMario
@QuantMario
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Excited to share some new research weโve been working on at @glassnode! #Bitcoin spending isnโt randomโit actually follows a fascinating and predictable pattern. As coins age, their likelihood of being spent drops in a smooth, measurable way. This power-law decay gives us new
The investorsโ spending behaviour in the #Bitcoin ecosystem, is far from random - it follows a predictable power-law decay. Our latest research uncovers how the age of coins directly influences their likelihood of being spent. ๐งต
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TL;DR: ๐ซ The #Bitcoin Power Law's future price predictions are flawed for two reasons (@Giovann35084111 @dotkrueger ): 1) They ignore USD's future value. 2) Adding a quadratic term fits the data just as well!๐ The #Bitcoin Power Law's attempt at predicting future BTC prices
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First timer: more than a billion USD of net inflows into the US spot #Bitcoin ETFs in a single day.
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Yesterday was the most significant inflow into the US spot ETFs, with a total of approximately 18k BTC. Source: https://t.co/bqYeMazHP6
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๐ For a throwback to the model's origins, right before Bitcoin's 3rd halving, check out the full article from May 2020: https://t.co/Qpll5AtbbO Are you ready to explore the future of Bitcoin with us? #BitcoinAnalysis
medium.com
Read writing from QuantMario on Medium. Data Science & Quantitative Finance.
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๐กMost models miss a crucial point: the dollar's devaluation shouldn't skew our Bitcoin valuation. It's like trying to hit two birds with one stone. My LGS-S2F model keeps the buying power constant at its 2020 level, offering a clear view of Bitcoin's price in that context.
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๐ Here's a peek into the future with a log-log chart projecting Bitcoin's price over the next 50 years, all the way to halving 16. By then, block rewards dwindled to a mere 76293 sats. But, the model's prediction? A staggering >$3M, based on the 2020 USD value!!
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The LG-S2F indicator, originally developed by @QuantMario , is a technical analysis tool designed to analyze the price of Bitcoin (BTC) based on an improved version of the Stock-to-Flow model. https://t.co/TL66b32esx
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Introducing Cointime Economics, a new framework for #Bitcoin analysis, by @_Checkmatey_ of @glassnode, and @dpuellARK of @ARKInvest This novel framework establishes a new suite of analysis tools, 30+ new metrics, and improved valuation and pricing models https://t.co/ULunEhP01c
get.glassnode.com
Cointime Economics provides analysts with a robust and computationally efficient toolkit to validate, verify, and improve on traditional on-chain analysis methods.
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Removed from the App Store for enabling tipping to everyone in the world without the need for a bank, payment card, or government permission. https://t.co/kfeQNfal8Q
appleinsider.com
Damus has failed to comply with Apple's guidelines for in-app purchases and will be removed from the App Store, though the app's developers will contest this decision.
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On the recent increase of #Bitcoin transactions, and what's driving this ๐งต The number of #BTC on-chain transactions has recently seen an astounding surge, crossing 0.5 million daily transactions, with a record high of 682,000 on May 1st. Chart: https://t.co/DtrQinpCel
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We have just released a suite of #Bitcoin Price Performance metrics that compare across: - Cycles by Halving, ATH, and Cycle Low - Show Quarterly, Monthly and Weekly performance - Compare to long-term average and ยฑ1ฯ moves Available live in a dashboard ๐ https://t.co/1YpPGUvOk1
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Approximately 40k $BTC from wallets associated with US Government law enforcement seizures are on the move. Of these, the majority appear to be internal transfers (so far), however approximately 9,861 $BTC seized from the Silk Road hacker have been sent to our Coinbase cluster.
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if you think about staking as if it were a stock, it's as-if the company says: if you don't lockup your shares (discouraging selling), the "or else" is they will dilute you. and some of the lockups have no clear end-date. all while management is selling. sounds dodgy.
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@glassnode More Data Science job descriptions at Glassnode are listed here
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