Travis Kling
@Travis_Kling
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Find your Ikigai 🌊 None of this is investment advice.
Joined September 2017
🚨🚨 On the heels of pretty atrocious vibes this summer for crypto, I'm publishing part 3 in a series that included: "A Lack of Pretense That Any of This Shit Does Anything or Will Ever Do Anything" and "Financial Nihilism: The Zeitgeist of Young America". It's a ~10 min read.
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Unfortunately, I have some pretty bad news to share. Last week Ikigai was caught up in the FTX collapse. We had a large majority of the hedge fund’s total assets on FTX. By the time we went to withdraw Monday mrng, we got very little out. We’re now stuck alongside everyone else.
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Banks charged $12.4bn in overdraft fees last year and Senators want to tell you to watch out for “dangerous DeFi”.
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Don’t ever forget the Fed had two presidents “quit” yesterday bc of how damning the evidence of their insider trading was, and Gensler doesn’t want you to get 4% on a crypto savings account.
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I've been doing these for 46 straight months and I've never seen one like this before.
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The SEC let a SPAC take Bakkt public and then crash 91% in three months but we can't have a spot #Bitcoin ETF.
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UK has 12 confirmed Omicron deaths out of 45k confirmed cases. Fatality rate of 0.027% would get Omicron FDA approval. "Standardized Mortality Rates after dose 1 were 0.42 & 0.37 for Pfizer & Moderna, and were 0.35 & 0.34 after dose 2". Omicron is better than Pfizer or Moderna.
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For the record, the last time we had a presidential debate, the price of #Bitcoin was $617.
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The Fed just implemented an emergency 50bps rate cut. The last time the Fed did this was October 29, 2008. Two days later, an unknown person or group of people going by the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto published a paper called "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System.".
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You need to understand where we are in this market right now- . We got the literal POPE sneak dissing #Bitcoin. I’ve got Class of 2012 traders telling me this is the most coordinated multifaceted FUD campaign they’ve EVER seen. F&G Index at 12. What happens if BTC doesn’t die?.
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#Bitcoin is worth a trillion bucks & its never spent a dollar on marketing. Never had a CEO or a board meeting. Never had a budget. Never lobbied. Never done a partnership. Never hired a lawyer or an auditor. Never existed in physical form. We’ve never had anything like it.
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Not trying to fearmonger but it has to be said. If you have assets on Binance or Binance US, take them all off now. Don’t wait. Also, if you are holding BUSD, you should sell that immediately. This is coming from a guy that lost a ton on FTX bc I misjudged the exact same setup.
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I'm still in awe that #Bitcoin is literally just open source software code run on computers owned by people that decide to run it and its worth a trillion bucks and heading higher.
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#Bitcoin is the only trillion dollar asset in human history that can go down to a $900bn asset and people will swear the whole thing is over.
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June 2021 brought the most aggressive sovereign assault on #Bitcoin ever. That is not hyperbole, that is fact. Check this timeline- 25 discrete events in 30 days and I'm sure I missed a couple. A massive concerted effort from China. Yet here we are, making blocks & trading $33k.
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Finally, please be kind to one another, here and in your daily lives. There's way too many bad people out there for the good people to act shitty too. Have empathy for your fellow humans.
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#Bitcoin is ~10% off of ATHs and the timeline appears to be on the verge of cannibalism. Couple thoughts. NFA -.
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🚨🚨 Binance's Slow Train Wreck 🚨🚨. As summer officially draws to a close, you may have been away from the screens over the last few months. Below is a summary of the major negative events for Binance since December. It's helpful to see it all in one place. Next time someone
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The crypto market is in a weird spot right now - acting as a risk asset and going down on tightening fears while governments around the world act as a massive billboard for why decentralization matters. The former will pass. The latter is a multidecade trend.
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If crypto is to recover and continue on its journey to make the world a better place, I believe the entire concept of trust has to be completely rearchitected. Bitcoin is trustless. Then we built all these trusted things around it, and those things have failed catastrophically.
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This is a thread about The Everything Bubble. And about #Bitcoin being for the people. ⬇️.
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Can't believe the richest dude in the world traded #Bitcoin like a teenager in his mom's basement that's never seen a market before.
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Ok this is super super shady. Binance just suspended USDC withdrawals on ETH and BNB chains. Given the circumstances, this is the last thing you want to see. @binance? @cz_binance?
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It's funny because I'm in some chats with some 2-3 cycle vets that are incapable of feeling anything bc they've been through so much that $98k BTC is whatever. And I'm in some chats with some 2022+ guys that feel nothing bc none of them own any BTC.
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What a great microcosm for the Baby Boomer generation. On the verge of death, clinging to every last bit of power and wealth he can get his hands on. Hoping maybe he can bomb one or two more countries before he kicks the bucket.
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So El Salvador found 50 million ounces of gold worth $131bn at current prices and Bukele is absolutely going to rush to mine all that gold and sell it as fast as possible to buy BTC and can someone for real do a wellness check on Peter Schiff bc wow.
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I’m at a loss for words at the depth & breadth of the pieces of shit that permeate crypto. So many fucking sociopaths were granted the opportunity to do so much damage. It’s hard for me to imagine the space bouncing back quickly from this ordeal. Too many got burned too hard.
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🚨🚨Today I'm publishing my thesis on what I think could be the defining feature of the next 12-24 months in crypto. Settle in, this is a long one. The thesis is called:. "A Lack of Pretense That Any of This Shit Does Anything or Will Ever Do Anything". Not financial advice.
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It's stunning that #Bitcoin hashrate just had its largest drop in history and price is up 40% in 10 days. Antifragile to an awe-inspiring degree. The world's never had anything like this thing and it's an honor to just be involved.
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It was entirely my fault and not anyone else’s. I lost my investors’ money after they put faith in me to manage risk and I am truly sorry for that. I have publicly endorsed FTX many times and I am truly sorry for that. I was wrong.
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Been seeing some “Bitcoin is anti-American because it destabilizes the dollar as the world reserve currency” lately. Let’s be very clear. US elected & appointed officials have done that themselves. Totally independent of BTC. And it’s getting worse. #Bitcoin is the life raft.
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This picture will be shown time and time again for years to come.
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With a new ATH today and the $COIN IPO tomorrow, you're going to have normies asking you questions about #Bitcoin again. Be patient. Be humble. Be helpful. Below are some good links to get started-.
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Apologies for the small font size, but it was necessary for October. Are you paying attention yet??
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All at the same time-. US Govt selling seized Silk Road #Bitcoin. US Govt selling seized Banmeet Singh BTC. German Govt selling seized Movie2k BTC. Mt Gox distributing BTC after a decade. Interesting.
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Another massive month for crypto in November. Please help me understand how a deep, long bear market is right around the corner when the breadth and magnitude of capital raises are this huge.
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Pretty sure being a Crypto investor just means entering 2FA codes over and over again until you retire.
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We've been here many, many times before. #Bitcoin on the ropes. Taking shots from multiple angles. What's going to happen? What has historically happened?. Don't forget- you're looking at the most stunningly antifragile financial instrument in human history.
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Oprah, a multibillionaire, charged Kamala $1mm to come on her show to try and stop Hitler. Sit with that for a moment.
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It’s obvious now that the space has not done enough to identify and expel bad actors. We’re letting way too many sociopaths get way too powerful and then we all pay the price. If Ikigai continues on, we pledge to fight harder in this regard. It’s a fight worth fighting.
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True story. China is literally airdropping digital currency into citizens’ digital wallets and there are still people out there that think crypto “isn’t a thing”.
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Tomorrow, Bitcoin will experience the first Fed rate cut in its history.
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I’m still trying to come to grips with the fact that Kanye West was going to launch a memecoin and he looked into it and the whole thing is so shitty he backed out ON MORAL GROUNDS.
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Today marks the one year anniversary of the worst day of my career and one of the worst days of my life - the day FTX froze withdrawals.
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I don't know how long this will last, but-. After the dust settles. After economic activity resumes. After CBs & govts inject *many trillions* of new dollars by increasing bal sheets & deficits. Off that bottom, there is no other asset on the planet that will move like #Bitcoin.
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Quantitative Easing is universal basic income for rich people.
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A lot of folks have been asking why BTC isn’t higher right now. If you own #Bitcoin, just be patient. BTC has historically transferred wealth from impatient hands to patient. Just be patient. Central banks are doing all the leg work for you as we speak. Just be patient.
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We now have three Fed board members that have resigned due to the egregiousness of their insider trading during the Covid market crash. But they won't let you participate in airdrops worth thousands of dollars cause you need to be "protected".
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🚨🚨 Today I'm publishing part 2 of my thesis. Get comfy. This is prob a 15 minute read. It's called-. Financial Nihilism: The Zeitgeist of Young America
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What politicians are debating behind closed doors right now is how much helicopter money they have to give to the 99.9% in order to bail out the 0.1%. They want to minimize the former while achieving the latter, all while avoiding social unrest. Watch what happens next.
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Honest question- if you’re worth $116bn, how much BTC do you have to own before you name your goat #Bitcoin?
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Crypto prices were down in January but you wouldn't know it looking at the highlights. Crypto continues to be the hottest sector on Earth.
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I call this chart "The Traditional Onslaught". We've been talking about "The Herd" for 3+ years. The Herd requires career risk cover. This is that. They are by definition not early adopters, but their pockets are deep & their capital is sticky. #Bitcoin is just getting started.
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Friendly reminder. There's an entire class of institutional capital that *can't* buy #Bitcoin before it hits $1tn market cap because it's just too small. These investors are largely price agnostic. They don't market time, they "allocate".
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Dogecoin is worth more than Hewlett Packard and people are still asking when Alt Szn is getting here.
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5 years of trendlines perfecting coinciding with the most highly anticipated event in BTC history. Fireworks in store!
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But don't save 4% on a crypto savings account. Save 0.03% in your checking account or save 1.3% with 10yr Treasuries.
Whether we’re starting off our freshman year of college or getting ready to graduate soon, I’d bet that most of us are thinking about money in one way or another. My two pieces of advice are: Start saving early, and save regularly!
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Imagine gold being used as money for 5,000 years - longer than any other form of money in circulation - and you just so happen to get a front row seat to #Bitcoin usurping it.
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We’ve been in constant communication with our investors since Monday. The amount of support we’ve received has been astonishing given the circumstances, and deeply heartwarming.
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**Update**. We recently sold our $65mm claim in the FTX bankruptcy. We got a price we were happy with and a price that was much, much higher than we were expecting just six months ago. Ikigai will continue operating as an investment business.
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Best part of this Washington deal is the boomers pretending to figure out how to pay for all the stuff. You want to tax crypto $30bn? Jay Powell has been printing $30bn/week for the last year. If you actually paid for stuff we wouldn't all have to adopt magic internet money.
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Best part about the Boomerberg article on “WH crypto oversight”-. They recuse the Tim Wu guy (only person in entire WH who knows anything on crypto) from helping bc he owns a couple bucks of BTC. Meanwhile half the Fed & a third of Congress just hammering insider trades. Good one.
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For a bunch of reasons, current #Bitcoin price action is not like historical price action. One of those reasons is in prior cycles you didn't have the President of El Salvador slurping the hell out of every dipperino off his phone and ripping tweets about it. Magical stuff.
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My new nickname for @BrianBrooksUS is "The Boomer Whisperer" bc he is the best possible guy to explain to these politicians how to not mess up the most important technological innovation since the internet the first time around.
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The market is currently pricing in 3.5 rate hikes in 2022. I'll def take the under on that. Primarily bc that would be such a stunningly boneheaded move by the Fed that it's almost unimaginable. If they do, the QE they'll do to fix it will make 2020 look like austerity.
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You can currently buy #Bitcoin less than 10% higher than the closing price the day Elon announced his $1.5bn buy.
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@APompliano One of my best friends said recently that he was worried about only having 3 BTC and that not being enough. I told him if this thing works like I think it will, 3 will be plenty.
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I got out of school in 08. BAM! Financial crisis to the face. Stock market has been up damn near every day since. An entire generation of Wall St traders have no experience with a market like this. An entire generation of crypto traders get stomped like this a few times a year.
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Leader of the 5th largest economy in the world. Bigger than India and the UK. Wants to fix inflation by printing more money. This is why #Bitcoin is going to $1mm.
NEW: we’re proposing $11 BILLION in relief, including a $9 billion tax refund for rising gas prices. - $400 per registered car .- 3 months of free public transit.
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The Euro went into circulation in January 2002. BTC went into circulation January 2009. The Euro is *seven* years older than BTC. Look at whats going on with the EUs monetary policy right now. Look whats going on with BTC. Which one do you really think is going to last longer?.
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Lots of chatter on this Blackrock #Bitcoin ETF. And rightfully so. Blackrock more or less IS is the US government. They’ve also received approval on 575/576 of ETF applications. One thing I’ll say- there is no chance, and I mean zero, that this ETF is approved with Binance in.
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There’s a ton of pontification on bigger picture issues that could be done right now but I just don’t have it in me at the moment. I’m pretty disgusted with the space as a whole and kinda humanity in general.
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The last time #Bitcoin’s block reward was cut in half the price of one Bitcoin was $660.
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Hong Kong. Chile. Lebanon. Indonesia. Netherlands. France. Russia. Peru. Haiti. Egypt. Syria. Right now millions of people around the world are risking life and liberty to stand up and fight back against government overreach. This is The Trust Revolution.
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Honest question- . What happened between the Nashville conference and today where the word "Bitcoin" wasn't included in the EO a single time?.
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Equities are at/near all-time highs. Bonds all-time highs. Real estate all-time highs. Venture Cap/PE all-time highs. Precious metals multi-year highs. All made possible by QE. A compelling argument can be made that BTC is the most undervalued asset in the world today.
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It's undeniable-. The path from $1k to $100k is SO much more unlikely than the path from $100k to $1mm.
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Tomorrow, the Fed will:. - Buy ~$2bn of T-bills permanently.- Buy up to $120bn of Treasuries & MBS overnight.- Cut the Fed Funds Rate 25bps for the 3rd consecutive time. Bitcoin is a non-sovereign, hardcapped supply, global, immutable, decentralized, digital store of value.
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Seriously though how pissed are you right now if you’re the Chinese Communist Party?. You absolutely hammer #Bitcoin nonstop for six weeks and basically the minute you let up it immediately rips 50% and looks like it wants higher.
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Crypto has never existed during a bear market in traditional assets. BTC was birthed at the very beginning of the largest monetary experiment ever- globally coordinated QE. Ending QE is causing pain. There is a significant chance Crypto is the best performing asset class in 2019
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Given this price action, now is a good time for a reminder:. BTC is going to pull back. It often does so in savage fashion. There have been 12 pullbacks of >30%. 6 of those have been >70%. Another pullback will undoubtedly occur. Could happen tomorrow. Keep your wits about you.
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The price of #Bitcoin increased 0.60% from the end of February to the end of April amidst one of the most catastrophic economic events in history. A store of value.
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Pls retweet to show support for #prayforScottMinerd
A technician's rule to remember with Bitcoin: "Every time a support level is tested it becomes weaker." That would mean support for $30,000 may soon fail.
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Don't ever forget the CCP and "ESG" went hammertime on #Bitcoin for two months and as soon as they laid off for a minute it did a double straight in their face back to ATH and now ProShares launched the second most successful ETF ever and I'm just curious how all that tastes.
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Regardless of the outcome - I think we can def go ahead and confirm that this cycle for #Bitcoin is unlike any other cycle in BTC history.
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Today, #Bitcoin 's block reward was programmatically cut in half, as it is every four years. Tomorrow, for the first time in the history of the United States, the Federal Reserve will purchase ETFs. Hard vs soft. Sound vs unsound.
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There’s a lot of uncertainty about what’s going to happen next. In the very near-term, Ikigai is going to continue trading the assets we have left that are not stuck on FTX. We’re also going to make a decision about what to do with our venture fund, which was unaffected by FTX.
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The Chairman of the Fed and the Treasury Security both agree that Bitcoin is a speculative store of value. Both of them, along with the President, agree that Libra and Bitcoin are two very different things. Wildly bullish.
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NFA. I'm wrong often. The current "bearish" backdrop seems easier to look through and buy than most of the boogeymen we've had in these markets over the last 6 years. - Germany is speedrunning their #Bitcoin dump. They're at 22k BTC currently, down from 50k a couple weeks ago.
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The whole world is gonna cut rates and juice QE at the exact same time as the halvening. Lol.
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Bitcoin maxis REALLY struggling with the “digital assets” language.
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