The October 10 liquidation wave prompted caution, yet liquidity, macro, and regulatory conditions remain broadly supportive. Our latest joint report with @CoinbaseInsto examines current market trends through data-driven insight.

Lacking Conviction Bitcoin remains stuck below key cost-basis levels as demand softens and long-term holders sell. Volatility is subdued but uneasy, leaving markets vulnerable to a hawkish Fed surprise. Read the full Week On-Chain below👇 https://t.co/80yYvj87y4

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$BTC Futures are still seeing muted activity following the historic wipeout on 10/10. Open Interest is still ±30% off the highs, and Funding is close to neutral. 🔗 https://t.co/ZPF7UZnS23

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The bounce from $107k coincided with US Spot ETF netflows turning positive. However, inflows remain <1k BTC/day, significantly lower than >2.5k BTC/day seen at the start of major rallies this cycle. Demand is recovering, but not at the intensity of recent rallies. 📈

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Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution shows support near $111K and heavy supply around $117K. This range defines the current battleground between recent buyers and profit-takers. A break in either direction could set the tone for the next major move. 🔗 https://t.co/vp08YF7k9r

Read the full Market Pulse for all on-chain + off-chain insights: https://t.co/foWFlhVhh5

On-chain activity remains mixed. Capital flows are improving at the margin, but network fundamentals are weakening, and profitability remains low.

Off-chain signals strengthened across the board. Spot, Futures, Options, and ETF activity all slowly trending higher.

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#Bitcoin is stabilizing as sell pressure eases and profitability improves, but muted activity and selective participation suggest a cautious, rangebound market until major demand steps in. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://t.co/foWFlhVhh5

The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) Oscillator continues to sit near cycle lows, indicating ample stablecoin liquidity relative to Bitcoin. Historically, such periods precede stronger bid-side support when market confidence returns. 🔗 https://t.co/K7LOYR2QtX

A similar pattern appears in the short-dated skews, showing sentiment turned highly negative while the aggressive sell pressure actually reached its peak. These sentiment extremes often signal opportunity zones where trends reverse

Funding rates remain below the neutral level of 0.01%, indicating no excessive long positioning or froth. In fact, we can see that funding flipped very negative several times over the last 2 weeks showing that participants lean towards caution

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For the first time since the October 10th flush, spot and futures CVD have flattened, indicating that aggressive selling pressure has subsided over the last several days

Buyer/Seller Dynamics Momentum buyers have largely exited, while dip-buyers failed to step in with enough demand to absorb that supply. With first-time buyers flat, this imbalance is pressuring prices until stronger spot demand returns.

Who's Been Selling? We've seen the largest consistent outflows from wallets holding between 0.1-10 BTC, essentially wallets with $10,000-$1,000,000 in holdings. This cohort has been consistently selling since November 2024.

Whale Activity  What's interesting is that whale wallets have actually been accumulating during this phase. Over the last 30 days, whale wallets have grown their holdings, and since October 15th, they haven't largely sold their positions.

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Illiquid supply has been a major tailwind this cycle, but the latest pullback breaks that trend. Similar declines have historically cooled momentum as supply returns to market, and we’ve seen far bigger outflows before, like the 400K BTC in Jan ‘24.

Illiquid $BTC supply has started to decline, with roughly 62,000 BTC moving out of long-term, inactive wallets since mid-October. When illiquid supply falls, more coins are available to trade, which can make it harder for price to trend without strong new demand.

A hallmark of bull markets is a low Relative Unrealized Loss, typically <5%. This metric tracks the USD loss of all coins currently underwater, normalized by market cap. The current bull market has held this structure since November 2023, making it more persistent than the

Waiting for CPI to reset volatility BTC options traders are holding back until the next macro catalyst. After the US data gap from the shutdown, all eyes are on the CPI release to recalibrate risk and volatility. Until then, volatility stays bid and sentiment cautious.

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