David Lawant
@dlawant
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Head of research @falconxnetwork | Prev: @BitwiseInvest , @hashdex , @StanfordGSB , @jpmorgan , and others | Jazz music, grilling steaks Nothing here is advice!
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Thinking about this JP Morgan line from early 2019:
"We have long been skeptical of cryptocurrencies’ value in most environments other than a dystopian one characterized by a loss of faith in all major reserve assets."
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“A study by Hirschman Capital shows that out of 51 cases of govt debt breaking above 130% of GDP since 1800, 50 governments have defaulted. The only exception, so far, is Japan. We mention this because the IMF expects US Debt to hit 141% by the end of 2020.”
Felix Zulauf
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The chance to win the mega millions jackpot is 1 in 302 million.
Now imagine someone winning it 9 times in a row.
That's still more likely than someone guessing a bitcoin private key.
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@ThomasSowell
Hard to think of someone who could be a better fit for the newly vacated Harvard president spot.
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I’m kicking myself for not having bought even more BTC. I can’t imagine how someone who‘s been on the sidelines feels.
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More than 100 years ago, Carl Menger accurately described the current stage of BTC hodling.
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@micsolana
@AJA_Cortes
“If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there'd be a shortage of sand.”
Milton Friedman
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1/ One of the most entertaining, but some times nerve-wracking, parts of studying Bitcoin is to learn about the history of money. Sometimes I think it would be easier to explain why Bitcoin matters to someone in England 800 years ago than it is to do so today.
Check this out:
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Too many are focused on the higher GBTC outflows, and not enough noticed that none of the other issuers saw outflows even with the BTC price going down from $74k to $61k.
The latter trend is much more important than the former in the medium/long term.
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And just like that... ETH circulating supply (ie: the amount of ETH at the execution layer, net of fees burned and validators entries/exits) is now under 99 million.
It's down 500k ETH over the last week and 1.4 million ETH over the last two weeks.
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Bitcoin is extremely likely to outlast central banking.
Few understand this.
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Fedwire is the settlement system operated by the US Federal Reserve. The average *daily* volume of transfers is $3 trillion and the average volume per transaction is $4 million.
I cannot use Fedwire to buy my coffee. It's probably useless then. /s
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Heard today and could not agree more:
“The decentralized stablecoin is bitcoin once it’s fully mature.”
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Mainstream economics = 🤮
Rogoff impressively honest about the “problems” he sees with BTC:
“If the world ends up on a private-sector currency standard... who is going to bail out the banks?”
That’s exactly the point! Banks are not supposed to be bailed out!
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"Back in 2016, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin projected the supply won’t cross 100 million in the foreseable future – not until the next century at least."
This level was crossed about 4 months ago. That's your Central Banker, my fellow altcoiner!
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Yes! Prediction:
In 2014 Bitcoin got rid of MtGox.
In 2018 Bitcoin is getting rid of Bitmain.
In 2022 Bitcoin will get rid of Coinbase.
Each milestone makes Bitcoin stronger.
Coinbase is anti-Bitcoin. If you don't believe me, or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry.
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According to the most recent 10K filing,
@Tesla
had cash & equivalents of $19.4 billion (gross), or $98 billion (net of debt and finance leases).
Using these figures as a reference, $1.5 billion in
#Bitcoin
represents an allocation of 7.7% on gross cash or 15.1% on net cash.
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"I tell you sure as I am sitting here, that if banking institutions are protected by the taxpayer and they are given free reign to speculate, I may not live long enough to see the crisis, but my soul is going to come back and haunt you."
Paul Volcker
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“The most important thing to remember is that inflation is not an act of God, that inflation is not a catastrophe of the elements or a disease that comes like the plague. Inflation is a policy.”
Ludwig Von Mises
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I just published the third part of my series on Bitcoin in light of Austrian economics. In less than 10 minutes, I'll take you to the long process of monetary base centralization that led to fiat money and how Bitcoin fixes it.
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In the late 1800s, oil was a highly speculative commodity that attracted wildcat drillers, shady promoters, dominating entrepreneurs, and genius scientists/engineers.
It went through a series of booms and busts that would leave today's most degen crypto traders jealous.
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One of my favorite charts, from
@Livermore_Lab
: It shows that 2/3 of the energy produced in the US is wasted/rejected.
If only there were an industry that could use this waste and balance the system load in the process... 🤔
#Bitcoin
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My vote for best paragraph ever written by a sitting governor of a central bank is this one. It’s from more than 150 years ago, but it still counts I think.
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This story of oil is taken from the monumental "The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power" (
@DanielYergin
)
It tells the incredible story of the utility discovery process of an emerging commodity that became an important rail the world runs upon.
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Altcoiner mentality: damn, I should have sold my coins a month ago for 2x the price they sell today.
Bitcoiner mentality: wow, BTC selling for a 50% discount. I should buy some.
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bad diversification: buy Bitcoin + shitcoins
good diversification: buy Bitcoin + mine Bitcoin + buy equity of companies building on Bitcoin
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@POTUS
According to the Pew Research Center, 17% of U.S. adults say they have ever invested in, traded or used a cryptocurrency. This breaks down as 24% for asians, 21% for blacks, 21% for latinos, and 14% for white.
How is disparaging crypto a sound political campaign strategy?…
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I used to run Bitcoin Core in a fairly old machine (about 5 yrs old). Turned it back on today and it was 48 weeks behind the blockchain tip. Fully synced in under 6hrs, with a regular internet connection.
I wonder how long would it take to sync, if at all, for other blockchains.
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#Bitcoin
's volatility is about 7x higher than the S&P500's. Normalizing for that, a 12% move in BTC would be equivalent to a 1.7% move in the SPY.
These are not uncommon: since 2014, the SPY has moved more than 1.7% or less than -1.7% in 141 out of 1978 sessions (7.1% of total).
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I’m re-reading “How to Think Seriously About the Planet”, the book about environmentalism by philosopher Roger Scruton.
He is the clearest of thinkers, give it a read!
If his arguments are right, then bitcoin is likely good for environment at a deeper level than many think.
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Yes! Billionaires don’t have to worry so much about monetary debasements because they can buy trophy real estate assets, museum-quality artwork, etc...
BTC extends this to anyone that has an internet connection and some capital to invest in what can become the best SoV ever.
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The guy in the video is the econ minister of Brazil, whom many deem the best among his global peers today. He has a PhD from Chicago and studied under Friedman and co.
He says he thought he knew about economics until he read Mises and Hayek.
What a cool example of humbleness!
Paulo Guedes, PhD em Chicago e aluno de Friedman, G. Becker, Stigler, Mundell, H. Johnson e outros economistas brilhantes, reconhece o valor de Mises, como fez tb com Hayek. (Ele leu os dois)
Baita exemplo de humildade em 16 s. Mas há quem não leu e prefira ser marrento...
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Change in ETH staked over the last 1 month:
Lido: +10%
Coinbase: -5%
Binance: +8%
RocketPool: +30%
Which of these surprised you the most?
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Might tweet this every CPI print from here on:
“The most important thing to remember is that inflation is not an act of God, that inflation is not a catastrophe of the elements or a disease that comes like the plague. Inflation is a policy.”
Ludwig Von Mises
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"It is impossible to grasp sound money if one does not realize it was devised as an instrument for the protection of civil liberties against despotic inroads from govts. Ideologically it aligns with political constitutions and bills of rights."
Ludwig Von Mises
HBD
#Bitcoin
!
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Why the Halving Matters, But Not in the Way You Think
The most crucial chart for comprehending halving dynamics is the one below, not the price chart.
It illustrates the proportion of total mining revenue compared to BTC spot traded volume since 2012, with the three halving…
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Update: ETH is now outperforming BTC by over 10 percentage points since Nov 1, 2023.
ETH already stopped underperforming BTC since the beginning of November. I'd not have sensed that from the CT current vibe.
2024 will be wild.
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It's hard to overstate the impact oil had in WWI. The Allies' victory was in a way a victory of the truck over the locomotive, or oil over coal.
It was said at the time among the allies: "The Allied cause had floated to victory upon a wave of oil."
The whole world noted.
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"It is impossible to grasp the meanIng of sound money if one does not realize that it was devised as an instrument for the protection of civil liberties against despotic inroads on the part of governments."
Ludwig Von Mises
11 yrs ago a new front in this battle was opened.
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Yeah, but don’t forget that in the 1940s with $10,000 you could buy a good house, a Volkswagen Beetle and pay four years of tuition at UPenn.
Warren Buffett says if you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 in 1942, you'd have $51 million today
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I think now I get why people say the carnivore diet is expensive:
After four months fully carnivore with a few eventual cheats I dropped 3 pant sizes and basically have to get rid of all my old clothes and buy new ones.
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@DavidSacks
This is right.
What's weird is that when someone like
@CaitlinLong_
proposes to do just that they get their application denied because it's "too risky."
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“If history could teach us anything, it would be that private property is inextricably linked with civilization.”
Ludwig Von Mises, the greatest economist ever.
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The “inflation is caused by supply chain disruptions and not by money printing” takes are nonsensical.
Money printing is inducing the massive entrepreneurial errors that are leading to inflation, first in the higher then in the lower stages of production.
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Oil was used at the time primarily for illumination (kerosene), but it was set to obsolescence after the advent of electricity.
That's when things get interesting...
At the turn of the 1900s, it started to dawn on some that oil could be most useful as a source of power.
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"to explain the exchange value of cows, economists don't provide a story of the origins of cows". Interested why it's different with money?
The second text in my series touches on the work of Mises and Rothbard to dig what's at the core of this.
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WC also spearheaded the development of an internal-combustion engine vehicle to move troops safely around the battlefield. It became known for one of its codenames, the "tank".
His genius was to embrace oil before securing oil supply and despite having excellent coal reserves.
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In the early 1910s, Winston Churchill (then Home Secretary) was trying to figure out a way to keep the English Navy competitive vs Germany.
He realized oil-powered ships would be faster than coal ships. From 1912 on, the Royal Navy was "fed by oil and could only be fed by oil."
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And here we are: My favorite metric of BTC spot daily volumes (
@coinmetrics
trusted exchange volume, 3-day moving average) just clocked in at below $1 billion for the first time since October 5, 2020.
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One underrated real-world use case of bitcoin is exposing the ignorance of an impressively large swath of mainstream economists.
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In case anyone’s interested in looking at the original study, it follows blow. It looks pretty interesting despiste the fact that I think the author is completely wrong about BTC.
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Just as important, relatively few obstinate and clear-minded individuals in the right positions can accelerate this process dramatically.
Our industry is lucky to have quite a few Churchills, but we can always use more and maybe this story resonates.
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Today is a good day to read this paragraph from 1892 by Carl Menger, one of the titans in economics, about how monetary goods are discovered in the free market.
If Satoshi is not among us anymore, I'd bet he's having some wild convos with Menger about this on the upper floor rn!
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After Elon Musk explaining bitcoin to J.K. Rowling in the context of central bank money printing, I think we can close the internet for today.
New takes only tomorrow plz.
@jk_rowling
Pretty much, although massive currency issuance by govt central banks is making Bitcoin Internet 👻 money look solid by comparison
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The two fundamental economic pillars of any healthy society are: freedom of association and property rights. The internet revolutionized the former,
#Bitcoin
will do the same with the latter.
It's not blockchain technology. It's not cryptocurrencies. It's Bitcoin.
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@CaitlinLong_
is the closest we've ever got to auditing the Fed. Love to see it.
WELL WELL, the Fed just released its 3Q master account list. I quickly noticed:
-the # of *uninsured* master account holders GREW from 414 to 442. What the🤯?
-applicant list added Tier3 applicants that predated the Q2 list❗️
-was the Q2 list inaccurate?🤔
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$14k bitcoin is more useful than $10k bitcoin.
The laws which govern the value of money are sui generis because money is neither a consumption good nor a production good.
Mises of course put it best more than 100 years ago.
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Today would have been Murray Rothbards's 93rd birthday. How I wish he'd been around to weigh in with Bitcoin.
Happy birthday, Murray!
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The roots of Austrian economics run deep:
"The same thing might be good and true for all men, but the pleasant differs from one and another." (Subjective theory of value)
"The good on hand is superior to the one still to come." (Time preference)
Democritus, ~400 BC.
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“Everyone wants to live at the expense of the state. They forget that the state lives at the expense of everyone.”
Frédéric Bastiat
Best explanation of Keynesian economics I have ever read.
Inflation penalizes holding cash and rewards paycheck to paycheck.
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The two major driving forces of spot BTC ETF net flows (GBTC bleeding $500m+ vs. IBIT and FBTC bringing in hundreds of millions of dollars each daily) will both taper off.
While the former dominates in the short run, the latter will dominate in the medium/long run by a mile.
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5/ To me, this sounds like an imperfect and rudimentary blockchain. Nevertheless, it's clear to me that these people would appreciate the utility of Bitcoin much better than the average "expert economist" does today.
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Bitcoin's market cap growth from 0 to $200bn is a small blip when compared to things like the above-ground stock of gold or the Fed balance sheet size.
Anyone getting in the early innings of this bull market is still incredibly early.
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0/ One thing not a lot of people know about the great Ludwig Von Mises is that he tried to put up a revolutionary private plan to restore sound money to Austria almost 100 years ago. How cool is that? Are there any insights for us Austro-BTC maximalists?
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1/13 The next significant variable to watch in the spot BTC ETF launch saga will be how much AUM these instruments will gather once they launch.
I think the market is currently expecting this inflow to be between $500 million and $1.5 billion. Bear with me to learn why. 👇
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Sorry, but the asteroid mining argument is terrible. BTC's 10x improvement is in easiness to validate & transport.
If that doesn't sound like a big deal, read about how gold beat silver and how it lost to fiat.
A short version of this unintuitive story:
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Amazing writing, as always, by my good friend
@Matt_Hougan
.
The notion that a store-of-value asset offers a service flow instead of a cash flow (and therefore can be valuable) isn't widely spread among investors yet, even though macro academics are 100% on board with it.
The Biggest Question in Bitcoin: How Can Bitcoin Be Valuable When It Doesn’t Have Cash Flows?
An excerpt from Bitwise CIO
@Matt_Hougan
's weekly memo to investment professionals.
Bitcoin as a Service
Bitcoin offers a service that millions of people today evidently find…
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BTC and ETH flows to exchanges continue to diverge.
Since the market lows on Dec 19th:
- $6.5 billion BTC net inflow to exchanges
- $1.3 billion ETH net outflow from exchanges
Why do you think that is?
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Prove me wrong: BTC's monetary policy is defined by the 21 million limit, by the 1MB blockweight and by the system for setting block intervals. Despite any utilitarian argument, these parameters cannot be changed as it would be an attack to the financial sovereignty of the users.
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The “wasteful” cost of mining hard money was once used as an excuse to implement bad money. Luckily, this will hardly happen with Bitcoin!
#TheBitcoinStandard
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"Back in 2016, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin projected the supply won’t cross 100 million in the foreseable future – not until the next century at least. Clearly, something with his calculations went amiss."
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What a difference ~4 years make for Paul Krugman!
Ahead of a Trump presidency: “running big deficits is no longer harmless, let alone desirable.”
Ahead of a Biden presidency: “we must stop worrying and learn to love debt.”
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Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk invented the concept of time preference in the late 1800s.
Just like
@saifedean
, who revitalized the concept, B-Bawerk is extremely readable and shoots from the hip on fiat economists.
This is what he has to say about prices and the law of supply & demand.
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@CommodoreBTC
@skwp
Yes, but they don’t realize it at the same time. Menger nailed it more than 100 years ago:
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@BitcoinNewsCom
It’s crazy that Munger seems unaware of the Cantillon efffect, which as an economic concept has been established since before Adam Smith.
“Worked well for a lot of people”, especially if coming at the expense of the majority, is an out-of-touch take.
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If you’re carnivore stop looking, but Brazilian cheese balls are the best.
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"It is impossible to grasp the meaning of sound money if one does not realize that it was devised as an instrument for the protection of civil liberties against despotic inroads on the part of governments."
Ludwig Von Mises
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Following the 1st round of the Argentinian presidential elections this weekend, a hardcore
#Bitcoin
advocate will likely advance to the run-off on Nov 19 as the leading candidate.
Argentina is a top 30 country in GDP terms. I don't think the market is paying enough attention.
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We are hiring four awesome people for the
@BitwiseInvest
research team. If you think you are a good fit, feel free to reach out (my dms are open).
I can't overstate how joining this team was the best decision I've ever made.
👇These are the roles we are looking for:
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A (somewhat) short thread on the coining of the term "Austrian School of Economics" and some parallels to the term "Bitcoin maximalism".
In 1871, Carl Menger published his Gründsazte ("Principles"), a book that would forever change the course of economic thought.
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Guidelines: Confront the issue, not the person.
Unless the person is criticizing Ethereum, of course.
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