Ryan Rasmussen
@RasterlyRock
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Research @BitwiseInvest
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In 2024... Bitcoin will set a new all-time high, the spot bitcoin ETF will be the most successful ETF launch of all time, Coinbase’s revenue will double, and more…
Here are 10 Crypto Predictions for 2024 by the team at
@BitwiseInvest
🧵👇
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I told my girlfriend that Bitcoin just hit $34k and her response was: “That’s great. Are you actually going to sell it this time?”
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I spoke with several financial advisors this week. The conversation has shifted from potentially considering a 1% allocation to bitcoin to seriously considering a 5% allocation.
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Uniswap — A decentralized exchange with no employees and no offices — processed $465 billion in trading volume in 2023
Coinbase — A publicly traded company with ~1,000 employees and offices all over the world — processed $465 billion in trading volume in 2023.
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1/ From prediction markets and decentralized social media to tokenizing real-world assets and tackling Africa’s energy crisis with bitcoin mining, and more…
Here are 12 Crypto Use Cases having an impact on the world by the team at
@BitwiseInvest
🧵👇
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Bitcoin has historically moved in four-year cycles.
The first three years it outperforms Gold, Real Estate, Bonds, Equities, and Commodities. In year four it underperforms all of those asset classes.
So far this year the cycle is repeating.
Source:
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Prediction
#10
: A major upgrade to Ethereum will drive the avg transaction cost below $0.01.
EIP-4844 could result in a 90%+ reduction in the cost to use Ethereum. We think this upgrade will pave the way for the first truly mainstream applications in crypto.
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If you think a spot bitcoin ETF doesn’t matter, then you:
A) Don’t understand how big of a role ETFs play in investing
B) Don’t understand how financial advisors and professional investors operate
C) Don’t understand the power of regulatory clarity
D) All of the above
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Is MicroStrategy (MSTR) the next GameStop?
~18% of shares shorted as of Feb 15th while MSTR is up ~75% since then.
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Gold market cap pre-ETFs: $2 Trillion
Gold market cap post-ETFs: $16 Trillion
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Three major developments happening in the next three months that most investors aren’t aware of:
1) March 2024: Ethereum’s Dencun Upgrade
2) April 2024: The Bitcoin Halving
3) May 2024: Ethereum ETF Decisions
Buckle up.
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A cheat sheet for golfers getting into crypto:
Solana = LIV Golf
Ethereum = PGA Tour
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Prediction
#6
: Ethereum revenue will more than 2x to $5b as users flock to crypto applications.
In 2023, users will pay ~$2.3b in fees to use Ethereum. We think that will at least 2x in 2024, making Ethereum one of the fastest-growing large-scale tech platforms in the world.
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Prediction
#8
: AI assistants will start using crypto to pay for things online, affirming crypto as “the native currency of the internet.”
We believe AI assistants will prefer digitally native money, like bitcoin or stablecoins. And we think that starts happening in 2024.
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Spoke with a large pension fund today. They asked about Bitcoin ETFs (of course), stablecoin adoption, and the tokenization of RWAs (real estate, money market funds, etc.).
Yes, there is institutional interest in Bitcoin. But they’re also interested in the entire crypto economy.
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Prediction
#1
: Bitcoin will trade above $80,000, setting a new all-time high.
There are two major catalysts that will help get us there: the anticipated launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF in early 2024 and the halving of new bitcoin supply around the end of April.
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Prediction
#3
: Coinbase’s revenue will double, beating Wall Street expectations by at least 10x.
Historically, Coinbase's trading volumes surge in bull markets, and we expect the same to happen again. Plus, they’ve launched a wide range of new products that are showing traction.
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Prediction
#2
: Spot bitcoin ETFs will be approved, and collectively they will be the most successful ETF launch of all time.
Within five years, we estimate spot bitcoin ETFs could capture 1% of the $7.2 trillion U.S. ETF market, or $72 billion in AUM.
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Prediction
#4
: More money will settle using stablecoins than using Visa.
Stablecoins are one of crypto’s “killer apps,” growing from effectively zero to a $137 billion market in the past four years, and we think 2024 will be another major year of growth.
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Prediction
#7
: Taylor Swift will launch NFTs to connect with fans.
One possibility? Spotify—where Swift was the most-streamed artist in 2023 with more than 26b streams—is experimenting with token-gated playlists that require listeners to own a particular NFT in order to listen.
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Long liquidations in the past hour:
- BTC: $77m
- ETH: $61m
- SOL: 15m
$71 million of BTC longs were liquidated in the past hour.
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Prediction
#5
: JPMorgan will tokenize a fund & launch it on-chain as Wall Street gears up to tokenize real-world assets.
Launching a tokenized fund would allow them to take advantage of the efficiencies on-chain assets can offer while entering a market whose growth is exploding.
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1/ Major new research drop on “The Outlook for
#DeFi
” from
@Bitwiseinvest
. Key takeaways:
1. DeFi is positioned to disrupt finance like Amazon disrupted Sears
2. DeFi is currently undervalued using P/S & P/SG metrics
3. The market growth opportunity is up to 15X-114X
A thread…
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Uniswap flipped Coinbase’s spot trading volume in Q1 and Q2 2023.
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Presenting 12 real crypto use cases to a room of 1,000+ financial advisors and RIAs (Registered Investment Advisors) today with
@Matt_Hougan
.
Farcaster…
Polymarket…
Render…
Ondo…
Bitcoin (of course)…
Stablecoins…
and many more…
1/ From prediction markets and decentralized social media to tokenizing real-world assets and tackling Africa’s energy crisis with bitcoin mining, and more…
Here are 12 Crypto Use Cases having an impact on the world by the team at
@BitwiseInvest
🧵👇
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Prediction
#9
: More than $100 million will be staked in prediction markets, which will emerge as a new “killer app” for crypto.
We think decentralized prediction markets will become a primary venue for both event-based and more traditional sports-related wagering.
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$71 million of BTC longs were liquidated in the past hour.
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1/ How do real-world assets make their way into DeFi?
Let’s take a look at the recent MakerDAO and Huntingdon Valley Bank (HVB) proposal for a $100 million loan participation facility.
🧵👇
The first collateral integration from a US-based bank in the DeFi ecosystem is getting closer.
The Maker Governance votes to add RWA-009, a 100 million DAI debt ceiling participation facility proposed by the Huntingdon Valley Bank, as a new collateral type in the Maker Protocol
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Franklin Templeton has tokenized $327 million in T-Bills, and you think crypto has no actual use cases.
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Bonus Prediction: 1 in 4 financial advisors will allocate to crypto in client accounts by the end of 2024.
We anticipate that once bitcoin becomes easily accessible, more and more advisors will allocate to crypto in clients’ accounts.
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To understand the efforts to launch a spot bitcoin ETF, one must first understand how ETFs get to market.
Most ETFs are registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940. These “1940 Act” ETFs have a fairly simple pathway to approval: Issuers file an application with the SEC,…
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@vance_mike
@sadmonsters
@elonmusk
“And … we just hit another all-time high in FTX trading volume lol”
- Sam Bankman-Fried
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What is
@Stacks
? What role will it play in the future of Bitcoin?
We’re covering all things Stacks tomorrow with
@muneeb
(Stacks co-founder),
@hongkim__
(Bitwise CTO),
@Matt_Hougan
(Bitwise CIO), and
@singularity7x
(Bitwise Sr. Research Analyst).
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You are most likely not the audience for a spot bitcoin ETF
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And that wraps our 2024 predictions. To read the full report, go to:
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Remember when people thought the amount of staked ETH would fall after withdrawals were enabled?
Amount of ETH Staked (as of 9/30/2023)
— 27M (+50% post-withdrawals)
Number of Validators (as of 9/30/2023)
— 851K (+50% post-withdrawals)
Source:
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Wall Street really doesn’t understand Coinbase.
Coinbase reports Full Year 2023 results on Thursday. Here’s what Wall Street is predicting (vs 2022):
Revenue: $2,961m (-7%)
Opex: $3,129m (-47%)
Assets on Platform: $158.8b (+99%)
Verified Users: 119m (+8%)
Monthly Transacting Users: 7.8m (-6%)
Trading Volume: $452m (-46%)
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At a TradFi event full of RIAs and family offices in Washington DC today.
Almost everyone I’ve spoken with hasn’t considered investing in bitcoin.
They’re still talking about tulips.
We’re so early.
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@SahilBloom
@SBF_FTX
Here’s the tldr:
1️⃣ Binance (largest crypto exchange) tweets fears of insolvency at FTX (its
#1
competitor)
2️⃣ FTX claims its just rumors
3️⃣ Fear sparked by Binance spreads like wildfire
4️⃣ FTX customers rush to withdraw assets from FTX causing a bank run
5️⃣ Binance acquires FTX
How Binance’s CZ starting the rumor about FTX, causing a liquidity collapse, and then acquiring the FTX is STRAIGHT out of the playbook of Rockefeller and Vanderbilt🧵👇:
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DeFi over the past 5 years: Flash loans, AMMs, algorithmic stablecoins
Traditional Finance in the past 175 years:
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Hosting a space with the Solana Foundation tomorrow. What do you want to know? Drop your questions here.
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Please note: As with all predictions, these are not guarantees, but represent our best informed estimate. The future is complex and conditional, and whether these pan out exactly as written will depend on many complicated factors. Nothing above is investment advice.
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This is wild..
@Opensea
is on pace to do more volume in August than all other months combined. It’s definitely NFT summer
Pulled from
@spencernoon
“Our Network” newsletter 👇🏼
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A few stats from Coinbase’s latest earnings:
— Stablecoin rev was 22% of all rev
— Opex fell 45% YoY
— 3,416 employees (-25% YoY)
— Nearly $1b of AEBITDA in ’23
— $5.7b of cash
— 90% of BTC ETFs custody w/ Coinbase
— Coinbase Ventures portfolio is held on balance sheet at cost
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Not surprising that Ethereum leads total Web3 developers by a long shot with ~4,000 developers.
Somewhat surprising to see Polkadot ranking second with ~1,400.
Source:
@ElectricCapital
Web3 Developer Report
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The Dencun upgrade is happening tomorrow and the entirety of CT is focused on politician- and nicotine-themed meme coins.
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This was a fun episode to record. Really enjoyed talking with
@DeFi_Dad
and
@Nomaticcap
about all things crypto.
🎙️ New
@Edge_Pod
on 10 predictions for crypto in 2024 by
@BitwiseInvest
!
Predictions include...
1⃣ New highs for BTC
2⃣ Spot BTC ETF approved
3⃣
@coinbase
doubles revenue
4⃣ Stablecoins beat Visa
5⃣ JPM tokenizes a fund on-chain
6⃣ Ethereum 2x's revenue to $5B
7⃣ Taylor Swift…
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This survey was taken in Nov 2023, when
@EricBalchunas
&
@JSeyff
had the odds of approval at 90%.
We’ve really only seen the tip of the iceberg so far. Institutional capital is STILL getting up to speed w/ bitcoin ETFs (platform approvals, advisor education, client education…).
Throwback to when
@BitwiseInvest
did a survey before spot bitcoin ETF approvals and only 39% of advisors thought one would be approved this year
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Some quick stats on where we’re at with crypto:
- Americans who want to update the financial system: 87%
- American adults who own crypto: 20%
- Jobs crypto is set to create by 2030: 4 million
- Fortune 500 companies that have crypto initiatives: 52%
- Fortune 100 companies…
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Coinbase reports Full Year 2023 results on Thursday. Here’s what Wall Street is predicting (vs 2022):
Revenue: $2,961m (-7%)
Opex: $3,129m (-47%)
Assets on Platform: $158.8b (+99%)
Verified Users: 119m (+8%)
Monthly Transacting Users: 7.8m (-6%)
Trading Volume: $452m (-46%)
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We presented DeFi to 400+ RIAs last week, and the polls are in:
61% are considering - or already are - investing in crypto for themselves/clients
48% have heard of DeFi
38% have used a crypto wallet
19% have used a DeFi application
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At Bitwise, for the past five years, we've run a survey asking financial advisors what their preferred method of accessing bitcoin would be, and all five years, the number one answer by an overwhelming margin has been a spot bitcoin ETF.
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Note: Coinbase’s Institutional custody platform is alive and well. Bitcoin ETFs are not impacted (and are setting records).
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The average 2024 revenue estimate for Coinbase is $3,170 million. So, the average consensus on the street is an 11% increase in revenue for Coinbase next year.
Coinbase revenue coming out of the previous bear market:
2018: $520 million (down 44% y-o-y)
2019: $483 million (down 7% y-o-y)
2020: $1,141 million (up 136% y-o-y)
Coinbase revenue coming out of this bear market:
2022: $3,148 million (down 57% y-o-y)
2023: $2,860 million,…
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People underestimate how many investors (financial advisors, RIAs, family offices, etc.) have zero interest in self-custody. Crypto is a tiny fraction of what they spend their time thinking about, and self-custody comes with too much liability.
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An illuminating visual from
@Blockworks_
depicting what would happen to TVL if the top 100 banks put 1% of AUM into
#DeFi
.
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There were $3.6 trillion of stablecoin transactions in the first half of 2023.
Breakdown by stablecoin ($ in trillions):
— USDT: $2.18 (or 61%)
— USDC: $1.18 (or 33%)
— DAI: $0.11 (or 3%)
— BUSD: $0.08 (or 2%)
— All Others: $0.01 (or 1%)
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MicroStrategy traded more volume than Amazon yesterday.
MORE THAN AMAZON
Microstrategy's historical volume chart is quite the site, it traded more than Amazon yesterday w/ $8b. Outrageous activity relative to its history. The spillover effect from the spot bitcoin ETFs is underrated part of this. The equitized btc complex is doing >$20b/day in volume
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Base (an Ethereum scaling solution) processed 46 million transactions in Q3 2023.
September: 26 million
August: 17 million
July: 3 million
Source:
@tokenterminal
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Snow, rain, or shine… Bitwise is on the road talking to financial advisors about crypto. Every day.
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So, miners are going to be just fine after all..
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Normie opens his brokerage account.
He can’t buy bitcoin—it’s not even an option. Even if he could, who has $60k just to buy one bitcoin.
But wait, what’s this? Bitcoin ETFs trading for $35/share?!
Two clicks later, he has some bitcoin exposure.
Normie sees $60,000 bitcoin
He only makes 25-45k a year, spends 70-80% on expenses, only has a few shekels left in the bank
He downloads Coinbase
Realizes he can only buy a fraction of BTC, thinks its too expensive
Only to scroll down the list of shite on the coin list, and…
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MicroStrategy's average purchase price of their 205,000 bitcoin stash is $33,706 per bitcoin.
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Y’all remember when weekly NFT trading volume was in the billions?
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In Q4 2023… Bitcoin jumped 57% and significantly outperformed major assets like stocks and bonds, Ethereum-linked transactions hit all-time highs (740M), Solana surged 389%, and more…
Here are 5 takeaways from the
@BitwiseInvest
Q4 Crypto Market Review
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Going live with
@ck_SNARKs
at 1:30 pm PST today to discuss the implications of today’s news of Grayscale's win against the SEC👨⚖️ 🏛️
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It was a tough Q3 for Ethereum’s financials.
— Fees of $446m (-47%)
— Revenue of $356m (-50%)
— Earnings of $80m (-81%)
But users and developers held on.
— Daily users of 329k (-4%)
— Monthly users of 5m (+3.1%)
— Core developers of 187 (-6%)
Source:
@tokenterminal
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What’s behind the surge that pushed Bitcoin to all-time highs this week?
Tune in to this discussion with
@DylanLeClair_
(Bitcoin Mag),
@ck_SNARKs
(Human Rights Foundation),
@dlawant
(FalconX), and
@Matt_Hougan
(Bitwise) tomorrow to find out.
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“Crypto is dead” - Mainstream Media in 2022
2023 Returns:
- Bitcoin: +157%
- Coinbase: +391%
- Solana: +934%
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Visa is already moving millions of USDC via Solana & Ethereum.
"By leveraging stablecoins like USDC & networks like Solana & Ethereum, we're helping to improve the speed of cross-border settlement & providing a modern option for our clients to easily send or receive funds.”
1/ We are excited to announce that Visa has expanded our stablecoin settlement capabilities to merchant acquirers launching pilots with
@Worldpay_Global
and
@Nuvei
utilizing the Solana blockchain
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The U.S. Government now spends more on paying the interest on its debts than on defense spending.
Interest expense: $857 billion
Defense spending: $751 billion
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The ability to store, transfer, and exchange Bitcoin and other digital assets is also coming to X, the effective global address book.
Video & audio calls coming to X:
- Works on iOS, Android, Mac & PC
- No phone number needed
- X is the effective global address book
That set of factors is unique.
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10/ Render: A Marketplace for Computing Power
@rendernetwork
connects suppliers and consumers of processing power with radical efficiency.
It’s the same simple, powerful logic that underlies giants like Airbnb and Uber, but with advantages that only crypto can provide.
Exclusively used the
@RenderNetwork
to build out my project which launches this week on the MSG Sphere in Vegas
@SphereVegas
.
Would have taken 100 hours to render locally. Took approximately 5 hours on The Render Network.
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You were buying steak dinners at these prices last week.
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Seeing a lot of excitement around
@farcaster_xyz
recently. Here are some quick stats:
— Total Posts: 1.1M
— Total Users: 20K
— Monthly Active Users: 5.6K
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1/ Stablecoins are often referred to as “the killer application for crypto.”
Yet—like separating the wheat from the chaff—separating the good stablecoin designs from the bad is a necessary step in their development.
A thread exploring the what, why, & how of stablecoins.
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Coinbase’s 2023 results just beat Wall Street’s expectations on Revenue (+5%) and Adj. EBITDA (+7%). Slightly higher Opex than expected (+4%), but down significantly vs 2022.
Overall a strong year.
— Revenue: $3,108 million
— Opex: $3,270 million
— Adj. EBITDA: $964 million
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The Crypto Wealth Effect
The crypto market is up $2 trillion from the 2022 lows. That’s a lot of wealth created in the past 1.5 years. And it’s starting to flow to other corners of the market à la meme coins like dogwifhat.
Welcome to “Everything Season”
An excerpt from Bitwise CIO
@Matt_Hougan
's weekly memo to investment professionals.
This alts season differs dramatically from prior versions, and here’s why.
Historically, alts season signaled the beginning of the end of the bitcoin bull market…
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Three bullish charts from
@ElectricCapital
’s 2023 Developer Report
1) 1k+ new devs have joined Bitcoin every year since 2017
2) 15k+ new devs supported Ethereum in 2021, 2022, and 2023
3) Devs grew significantly since the last bear market (+30% annualized growth since 2020)
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DEX volumes fell off a cliff in August, hitting their lowest levels since December 2020.
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Interesting move by Coinbase and Circle regarding the USDC stablecoin.
They dissolved the Centre Consortium (a 50/50 effort by Coinbase and Circle that jointly launched in 2018 and oversaw governance of USDC), and Coinbase purchased a minority stake directly in Circle.
The…
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Bitcoin = Flight to quality
Ethereum = Flight to decentralized tech
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Excited to discuss Electric Capital’s 2023 Developer Report with
@MariaShen
,
@anjan_vinod
,
@Matt_Hougan
, &
@singularity7x
tomorrow.
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The headline: “Lawmakers Return FTX money”
The details: Two politicians have reportedly donated a total of $7,900 in funds to charity that they had previously received from FTX-related donors.
The takeaway: Only $69.99 million more to go.
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