Christian Möstl
@chrisoutofspace
Followers
3,770
Following
1,000
Media
798
Statuses
4,152
Head, Austrian Space Weather Office @ASWOGeoSphere | @geosphere_AT |☀️💥💨🌍 | @ERC_Research HELIO4CAST | |
Graz, Austria
Joined March 2009
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Ali Koç
• 317617 Tweets
Fenerbahçe
• 273138 Tweets
#INDvsPAK
• 169442 Tweets
Modi 3.0
• 142580 Tweets
#RolandGarros
• 123977 Tweets
junhui
• 109188 Tweets
नरेंद्र दामोदरदास मोदी
• 87626 Tweets
Rohit
• 81195 Tweets
Kohli
• 79936 Tweets
Jammu
• 79655 Tweets
Zverev
• 76223 Tweets
Alcaraz
• 67384 Tweets
Virat
• 61059 Tweets
जम्मू कश्मीर
• 56345 Tweets
Doom
• 51322 Tweets
Pant
• 48369 Tweets
アイナナ記念日
• 44968 Tweets
Grand Slam
• 39498 Tweets
Amir
• 38124 Tweets
Black Ops 6
• 32795 Tweets
Surya
• 31156 Tweets
Dube
• 21639 Tweets
Nadal
• 20579 Tweets
Campus mode
• 16624 Tweets
BELOVED BELLE DAY
• 15266 Tweets
#٥٠_الف_عيديه_مرزوقه_والمشاهير2
• 15252 Tweets
Jadeja
• 13794 Tweets
伊黒さん
• 13390 Tweets
Hardik
• 11829 Tweets
Rinku
• 11796 Tweets
Dragon Age
• 11078 Tweets
もちづきさん
• 10704 Tweets
Fable
• 10311 Tweets
#عبدالرحمن_المطيري
• 10247 Tweets
OMG. The
#Starlink
launch on Feb 3 went straight into the ongoing double-dip geomagnetic storm caused by 2 solar storms impacting the Earth. Up to 40 out of 49 satellites are lost due to increased atmospheric drag.
Hint for
@elonmusk
@SpaceX
:
#spaceweather
exists.
UPDATE:
@SpaceX
confirms there has been a problem with its most recent
#Starlink
launch, and it's due to something I cover pretty often - space weather.
Up to 40 of the 49 satellites launched will likely be lost due to the storm. Anticipate fiery reentries.
📸:SpaceX
@TamithaSkov
11
57
131
4
83
233
This
#solarstorm
eruption on late Friday Apr 21 is very likely to arrive at Earth late Sunday Apr 23. From this overlay of
@NASASun
SDO/AIA 171 + HMI, one can read the potential magnetic configuration of the flux rope at Earth, determining how the geomagnetic storm evolves.👇
4
74
220
@nytimes
In every single country in the world he would be on a flight home before he could even put a racket back in a bag.
1
4
186
This storm is amazing: it took only 38 hours (!), from Nov 2 ~05 UT to Nov 3 19:25 UT to travel all the 149.5 Mio km from☀️to 🌍.
This is a mean speed of 1023 km/s or 3.7 Mio km/h or 2.3 Mio mph. The storm definitely got a tow by a slipstream from faster wind in front of it.
3
31
161
Quite unreal to announce that I got an
@ERC_Research
Consolidator grant for improving
#spaceweather
prediction! This is foremost a success by everyone in our team: Tanja/Ute Amerstorfer, Maike Bauer, Rachel Bailey, Martin Reiss, and Andreas Weiss.
Best. team. ever.
🧵 1/18 👇
38
9
160
This is the current view from the Rax mountain webcam, in Austria, not bad 😃
1
37
143
While the
@NASASun
Parker Solar Probe has made its close solar flyby
#15
, with
#17
by the end of 2023 to be the next approach to go even closer, more interesting things are happening in the heliosphere:
(1) Look at this absolute unit of a
#coronalhole
.
1
30
117
Here's another Earth-directed
#solarstorm
to watch, erupting on November 9. Look for the ring-like appearance in this combined SDO/SOHO movie. Forecasted arrivals at Earth are clustered around late Saturday November 11.
3
41
124
With all the active regions on the☀️the current sunspot number shattered the scale in our solar cycle prediction plot, so we updated it.
4
42
117
Meet Lilla, our new PostDog.
Proudly handles office security single-pawedly.
Voted Employee of the Month, every month.
Very good girl.
5
10
114
Good summary
@washingtonpost
of the early February
#starlink
"fallout" caused by a geomagnetic storm, featuring a nice roundup of our community including
@TamithaSkov
@erikapal
@spaceyliz
and others (+ a tweet from me 🙂)
6
30
99
Enjoy the
#aurora
show! The Dst index for measuring geomagnetic storm strength is provisional, but the minimum of Dst -184 nT at March 24 03 UT means it is the strongest geomagnetic storm since June 2015, so for almost 8 YEARS! And we are only in the rising phase of ☀️ cycle 25.
3
25
98
We have a new paper out! We predicted how many
#solarstorms
will impact Earth in the next solar cycle, and there may be a surprise in store for the
@NASASun
Parker Solar Probe!
Its open access here:
@FWF_at
@IWF_oeaw
@oeaw
☀️💨🌍
1/n 👇
2
27
94
The 2021 October 28
#solarstorm
in all its glory observed by SOHO.
I see a clear asymmetry implying a tilted magnetic core, with an axis going from the bottom left to the upper right (or vice versa) - so if this flux rope impacts Earth, it has likely southward magnetic fields.
5
30
92
As most
#spaceweather
enthusiasts are aware now, there is an Earth directed
#solarstorm
incoming, erupting on late Tue Nov 28, visible as a halo around the Sun in this
@MissionSoho
LASCO movie. There is a wide spread in predicted Earth arrivals from early to late Fr Dec 1.
2
31
95
A first quick look at the
@ESASolarOrbiter
data from the magnetic field instrument
@SolarOrbiterMAG
at 0.83 AU and 19° away from the Earth quite clearly shows that there are 2 solar storms interacting (maybe merging?), different from the signatures we've seen so far at Earth.
4
31
84
The solar corona seen with the SOHO spacecraft is really exceptionally beautiful in the last few days, with the solar approach of
#comet
96P/Machholz and a few minor
#solarstorm
eruptions. ☄️🌬️☀️
2
24
86
After the impact of a
#solarstorm
shockwave, the Earth is now inside field fluctuations with sustained southward pointing magnetic fields. Dst index is now ~-100 nT, so on the border of an intense geomagnetic storm, and the
#aurora
energy input is 4x the average!
1
25
85
And here we go: the monthly averaged sunspot number is > 150 for the first time in solar cycle 25. 🌞
6
35
85
After the impacts of the 3
#solarstorms
with 300-500 km/s (all were expected to be incoming), there is a moderate geomagnetic storm (G2) ongoing. The
#solarwind
observations at L1 and by STEREO-A at 5.7° longitude away show some variation in the southward magnetic field. 👇
1
21
87
@rudi_anschober
Bitte Maskenpflicht indoor sofort wieder einführen. Eigenverantwortung kennen 90% der Menschen nicht. Gehens einmal in einen Baumarkt wo 300 Leute keine Maske haben als einziger mit Maske rein. Mir ist das egal, ich mach das, aber der Gruppendruck ist für viele Menschen wichtig!
4
1
65
New magnetic field data from the
@NASASun
Parker Solar Probe spacecraft have been released today, giving us the very first ever data taken at a distance of < 0.1 AU or one tenth of the distance of the Earth from the Sun.
1
27
77
There is a high speed
#solarwind
stream incoming starting Friday Sep 27 and lasting over the weekend - could be a good
#aurora
opportunity for places like Iceland, northern Norway and Canada.
2
25
66
OMG 😱 this is so cool:
@ESASolarOrbiter
sees a
#solarstorm
at 0.47 AU, 4° away from Earth. This means this (weak) storm will impact Earth and we can predict the magnetic field to switch from south to north.
@SolarOrbiterMAG
👏amazing effort, afaik its a first in space science!
The latest MAG data show that
@ESASolarOrbiter
has indeed encountered a CME. Strong Southward fields in the preceding sheath region could well be geoeffective. Propagation time to Earth is around two days, so arrival perhaps first half of the 10th.
1
19
60
6
22
66
Absolutely gorgeous event. Will take a closer look tomorrow.
The latest X1.5 flare from AR 13006 was eruptive, marked by a gorgeous coronal wave.
But the possible effect on Earth may need professional evaluation by
@TamithaSkov
@erikapal
and
@chrisoutofspace
. This may be only a glancing blow as the CME was largely directed south.
12
153
347
1
12
63
Another solar cycle 25 region at ~S24. Over the past weeks, there have been a number of similar regions, that is, with marginal sunspots that did not last long. But this one may be promoted to AR 12766. These feeble regions may indicate the beginning of a new cycle.
3
59
134
1
27
59
☀️💥The STEREO-A spacecraft has just seen an arrival of a strong interplanetary shock (Sep 18 09:04 UT) followed by a -20 nT Bz field. It seems to arise from a
#solarstorm
erupting on Sep 14, with another one incoming launched on Sep 16. Watch out for
#aurora
chances tonight!
1
16
67
Weather news from the heliosphere: Apparently 2 solar eruptions at the end of January led to really good solar storm signatures (flux ropes) in the magnetic field data from three spacecraft: DSCOVR at L1,
@ESASolarOrbiter
, and
@NASASun
STEREO-Ahead, spread over 35°.
Nice.😋
1
21
63
What a colossal sunspot group that will face Earth in 3-4 days - STEREO-A is still in a great position to image Earth-directed
#solarstorms
and
@BepiColombo
is close to the Sun-Earth line - always good for observing/simulating the radial evolution of a storm.
0
24
62
So far our prediction of this
#solarstorm
magnetic structure, based on☀️images as South-West-North (SWN), turned out correct. The magnetic field points south and west (SW), and this field should turn northward (N) soon, then
#aurora
is expected to (slowly) recede.
👇
Thus, the configuration on the Sun indicates a right-handed South-West-North (SWN) rotation of the flux rope. If correct, this means that the geomagnetic storm would start soon during Sunday night after a shock wave and the plasma pile up sheath region arrived.
1
2
17
3
15
63
With 2 or 3
#solarstorms
incoming expected from Mon Aug 30 to Sep 2, the geomagnetic effects of this compound stream should last until Sep 4/5. Bad timing with Hurricane Ida, likely impacting radio comms for disaster response.
This is a deja-vu of the Sep 2017 CMEs/Hurr. Irma.
2
24
56
@NobelPrize
This is probably one of the most deserved Nobels ever. He founded a totally new field that forever changed humanity's view of the past.
0
4
57
Wow! The 2021 Oct 9 event could turn out to be a *very* interesting
#solarstorm
, for both research on the magnetic structure of CMEs and for its real time effects (
#aurora
) at Earth.
@BepiColombo
and
@ESASolarOrbiter
Orbiter are only 7 and 13 degree away from the Sun-Earth line.
Today's eruption/M1.6 flare from AR 12882 is not only thought to have launched an Earth-directed CME, but also was accompanied by an impressive large-scale EUV wave. It even spawned a secondary wave when it hit a region to southwest (lower right).
8
232
570
4
18
55
So we got an Earth directed
#solarstorm
! Seen by SOHO, SDO and STEREO-Ahead, as a perfect example how such a storm would be observed by a mission to the Lagrange 5 point. It has a decent speed - in STEREO Ahead, roughly 1670 km/s (13 Rs in 90 minutes), arrival likely Wed Dec 9.👇
2
20
48
Our team at the Austrian Space Weather Office in Graz
@GeoSphere_AT
has now grown to 8 people in total, plus 2 permanent guest researchers. ☀️🛰️🌍
If you want to be part of our office ...👇
4
6
61
Quick wrap up of the 2023 November 9
#solarstorm
: In these observations by STEREO-A and at L1, the magnetic field turned northward quickly. A flux rope appeared only a day after the initial arrival, with some brief and weak southward fields, yielding some high latitude
#aurora
.🤷♂️
2
11
61
Our team has a new paper out lead by Martin Reiss on what is for sure one of the hardest problems in
#spaceweather
forecasting: predicting the magnetic field inside solar storms.
🧵 👇
#openaccess
@AGUSpWx
@FWF_at
@Know_Center
@IWF_oeaw
@UniGraz
@ZAMG_AT
5
14
56
Forecast crunchtime! How well did the solar storm forecasts do with
@SolarOrbiterMAG
data that we got *in real time* from closer to the ☀️?
Panels are near🌍 L1 data, a hindcast from SolO data with expansion, my original SolO based forecast, STEREO-A data, and the L1 speed.
🧵👇
1
16
54
We have a new paper out in ApJ Letters on the first survey of
#solarstorms
observed at multiple spacecraft in the
@ESASolarOrbiter
era. See also the new living catalog at
☀️🌬️🛰️
@FWF_at
@IWF_oeaw
@UniGraz
@UNHEOS
@RAL_Space_STFC
2
14
55
Here's a prediction for the March 10
#solarstorm
based on
@SolarOrbiterMAG
data at 0.43 AU and 11° away from Earth, assuming the magnetic field stays similar (may not be true for that separation distance!).
Total field at 1 AU ~30 nT, min Bz -26 nT (but short), flux rope: SWN
5
8
53
A new study by
@swmcintosh
et al. (under review)
is a mind-blowing prediction for solar cycle 25 with a maximum sunspot number of 233 (which means flares, CMEs📈), doubling the amplitude of the last one. Compare to a mean cycle and the official forecast👇
When
#Terminator2020
happens we should have a good bearing on the strength of
#SunspotCycle25
if it follows the last 24 cycles!
#Preprint
@rickyegeland
@leamonrj
@NCAR_Science
#NSFfunded
2
2
15
7
25
50
After 2
#solarstorm
impacts there is a geomagnetic storm ongoing with minimum Dst -108 nT. Looking at the
@SolarOrbiterMAG
, L1 and STEREO-A data below it seems that near Earth🌍 there was a short period of enhanced southward Bz magnetic fields as the 2nd storm ran into the first.
Today's pass shows that a second event arrived
@ESASolarOrbiter
around 02:30UT today. Crucially, the magnetic field associated with this event has so far been Northward, making it less likely to be geoeffective. We will provide an update later today when the pass ends.
1
4
33
2
21
53
The current equatorial coronal hole could lead to some high-speed stream driven
#aurora
activity at high latitudes from Mon Dec 27 to Thu Dec 30.
🇳🇴 🇮🇸 🇨🇦
4
12
53
The
#solarstorm
from July 15 impacted 🌍 on July 18 20:35 UT, and we are now inside its magnetic core, which is weak (10 nT) but it does point southward (good!). Auroral energy input is 3x enhanced, good enough for an
#aurora
show at high latitudes!
Looking at you, 🇨🇦! 😃
3
6
51
Took me a while to fully realize I've actually been invited to present my heliophysics/space weather project to the
@ERC_Research
Consolidator Grant panel in January 2022. Should be enough time to prepare myself really well.
#wishmeluck
🤞🤞🤞
8
0
52
The sunspot number is going rogue, I have to adjust the scale of our plot for the 3rd time in a few days, should I just set the max to … 500?!
4
9
52
Starting slowly tonight and peaking on Friday with 600 km/s a high-speed
#solarwind
stream will lead to some high-latitude
#aurora
intensification for the next few days.
Happy
#aurora
hunting!
1
15
44
Solar Orbiter is 12.5 degrees east of the Sun Earth line and sees the
#solarstorm
magnetic field as northward mainly, implying less geomagnetic activity at Earth impact. The big question is how reliable this is for the near Earth solar wind. Nothing seen so far at 🌍.
A CME, predicted by
@MetOfficeSpace
and others, has arrived at Solar Orbiter but so far the field has been Northward. Orbiter remains significantly off the Sun-Earth line so this is not necessarily an accurate prediction of what will arrive here later today.
2
22
98
0
16
51
Already noted by
@swmcintosh
the sunspot number (SSN) continues to outpace the predictions for a low magnitude cycle and almost scratches the 100 SSN mark.😮
If it may go up to an average solar cycle with a maximum ~ 200 SSN this would mean the ☀️ is halfway in the rising phase.
2
16
48
The monthly update for the sunspot number for Feb 2023 seems to show - in my opinion - that we are still on track for an average ☀️ cycle strength (green), and its also consistent with the
@swmcintosh
forecast update from Feb 2022 (red).
5
9
46
The 2nd expected
#solarstorm
impacted a few hours ago, with a really high speed of 800 km/s near Earth, presumably through a slipstream effect caused by the previous storm. For high-latitude countries in Europe this could be another great
#aurora
show tonight!
2
9
47
A
#solarstorm
is glancing the Earth right now, and whats really cool is that the STEREO-A spacecraft is only 3 degrees and 0.05 AU away from Earth, acting as a sub L1 monitor.
These data gives us a glimpse into the storm magnetic fields roughly 5 hours into the future!
4
13
49
On 2023 Sep 12 there was an interesting magnetic structure in near Earth space, likely resulting from a
#solarstorm
side impact. Its sustained southward field resulted in a geomagnetic storm with Dst ~-80 nT. STEREO-A has seen the event at 2.8° west a few hours earlier.
3
16
49
The ongoing geomagnetic storm seems to me to be caused by 3
#solarstorm
(CME) impacts - Nr 2 and 3 originating from 2 halo CMEs erupting on Sep 14 and 16. The reason the Sep 16 was faster than expected (about 0.5 days early) was likely due to the well known slipstream effect.
3
17
49
New monthly mean sunspot numbers are in (black) and see how they compare to solar cycle predictions: green average cycle, red
@swmcintosh
et al., blue NOAA/NASA/ISES.
Call me overly optimistic but that gradient is really starting to smell like an average/strong cycle to me.
4
17
48
Earth is currently in a gap between 2 mediocre high-speed
#solarwind
streams, corresponding to 2
#coronalholes
visible on the Sun. Some high latitude
#aurora
activity may be possible over the next 3 nights, based on my extrapolation of STEREO-A data 7.6 days ago.
#spaceweather
0
26
43
Thank you
@MitterlehnerR
for working hard for Austrian science funding! After long, a science minister who stood for science, not against it
0
6
44
A
#solarstorm
just arrived at 🌍 , again seen slightly earlier by STEREO-A a bit closer to the Sun. Bz is fluctuating, will be interesting to see whether we get a compound stream of several storms, and if there is an ordered magnetic flux rope in there somewhere. 🤞for
#aurora
!
1
11
48
😮
@SolarOrbiterMAG
has observed a
#solarstorm
on April 10 2023 right around its perihelion at 0.29 AU, peaking at 142.6 nT total field. A perfect observation of a left-handed magnetic flux rope, the field pointing to south (-Bz, blue), east (-By, green), and then north (+Bz).
We have just released data from April 2023 to the public archive. A perihelion passage, with a very large coronal mass ejection - this is the largest magnetic field our instrument has measured that is not a planet.
1
16
66
2
5
47
Here's Comet Leonard ☄️ in its full glory as it passed throught the
@RAL_Space_STFC
heliospheric imagers on the
@NASASun
STEREO-Ahead spacecraft, looking towards Earth (on the right) and Venus (coming in from the left). Several *massive* tail disconnection events are visible.
2
11
45
A minor geomagnetic disturbance is coming Monday to Tuesday June 18-19 ,
#aurora
at (very) high latitudes possible. Earth will graze the flanks of a solar wind high speed stream from a
#coronalhole
on the northern solar hemisphere, Dst minimum predicted -25 nT at June 18 22:00 UT
2
24
40
The
@NASASun
Parker Solar Probe is right now making its 17th close approach to the Sun, all the way down to an incredible distance of only 0.053 AU from the Sun on Sep 27 23:30 UT. Besides setting new records more in situ data of the recent CME impacting Earth would be nice!
2
17
48
New paper on a solar super energetic particle event by Bard et al., from radiocarbon dating in trees found in southern France, dated to 12351 BC. Twice as strong as the famous Miyake 774 CE event.
2
10
47
Fun fact when predicting a
#magneticstorm
from a
#coronalhole
: because the hole is narrow in longitude, the wind speed at Earth will not rise much after the stream arrives on late Tue Feb 19. Wider holes = higher speeds, see Garton et al. (2018)
2
13
40
There is an ongoing arrival of a high speed
#solarwind
stream at Earth, similar to the previous solar rotation. Presumably its from a small coronal hole on the western ☀️hemisphere (on the middle-right in the image). Auroral energy input currently even 3x times above average.
1
8
42
So, we did a thing and founded the ...
☀️🪨 Austrian Space Weather Office 🛰️🌍
We are now part of the Austrian
@ZAMG_AT
and our main goal is to enhance real-time
#solarwind
prediction.
Team homepage:
Article in german:
👇
1
7
42
This is the
#solarstorm
in all its glory from the X2 flare on late Dec 14 as imaged by
@MissionSoho
. With a source region at roughly west 50° and north 5° its directed quite far away from Earth, so a strong geomagnetic response is not likely.
🌞🚨💥AR 13514 is a FIRECRACKER! 💥🚨🌞 It has been firing off many M class flares. Yesterday it produced the biggest flare (X2.8) of Solar Cycle 25, that was associated with a CME, which may glance Earth 🌍, and a low-level proton event. Watch this space!👀
0
16
42
4
11
44
The impact of the
#solarstorm
from early July 18 is now clearly visible in both the
@NWSSWPC
solar wind data at L1 and STEREO-A beacon data. Magnetic field is only 10 nT and the speed 450 km/s, consistent with the side impact already hinted at by SOHO LASCO.
Funny though is ...👇
2
10
45
In the wake of the current
#solarstorm
the Bz magnetic field at the Sun-Earth L1 point has dipped < 0 for a few hours now, and we are at the brink of another moderate geomagnetic storm. However, at STEREO-A which gives us a glimpse ~3 hours into the future Bz >0 again.
4
16
43
@F1
@SChecoPerez
Where is a safety car when Checo needs one? When Lewis needs it, bam, same lap Safety Car out.
3
1
41
The two
#solarstorms
en route to Earth (to be here early Thursday Mar 31) may hit
@BepiColombo
and STEREO-A too. STEREO-A +
@ESASolarOrbiter
could provide good side views from opposite points. Initial speeds of both storms are 600-700 km/s, so faster than the ambient
#solarwind
.
Updated forecast from NOAA, using WSA–Enlil: again, CME2 catches up with CME1, and the two are predicted to arrive at Earth on March 31, around 00:00 UT 💨🌎 Note that this arrival is about 3 hours earlier than in the previous estimate, which included CME1 only.
2
10
43
5
9
42
As the
@ESASolarOrbiter
instruments have been taking data for a few months now and the first science data will come in fall, groups focusing on getting the most out of the instruments that are measuring what happens in the
#solarwind
kick off on Sep 3.
2
12
41
After landfall of
#HurricanceFlorence
, starting with late Saturday a
#magneticstorm
is possible to last for 4 days or maybe longer. The
#coronalhole
source became larger over the last few days, so a G1/G2 storm is possible, may pose problems for emergency responders
@TamithaSkov
?
3
21
32
After the shock of the Nov 2
#solarstorm
impacted on Nov 3 19:25 UT, it does look like we are going into the magnetic core of the storm. It has southward pointing fields (yay!), driven with 700 km/s towards the magnetosphere, thus pushing the energy input to 7 times above normal.
2
5
40
If you live at high-latitude and want to take a break from Netflix and get away from it all, there is a chance for
#aurora
in the next few days assuming a fast
#solarwind
stream will arrive similarly as one solar rotation ago.
The wonders of the universe don't take a break 😀 !
0
23
39
@ArminWolf
Heute einer Impfgegnerin zugehört (Alter: Risikogruppe). Regt sich fürchterlich auf "wie lange das noch gehen soll mit dem Corona" will aber keine Impfung "wg Nebenwirkungen". Daher will sie es "aussitzen" bis es "endlich vorbei" ist.
Wie bitte bringt man so jemand zum impfen?
13
0
41
It needs to be said: the
#heliophysics
and
#spaceweather
research communities are a.w.e.s.o.m.e.❤️🤗
You really only appreciate this when you hear once in a while what the ... is going on in other fields.
1
3
38
This is a fantastic achievement for the heliophysics research community in India! Incredible that we will have another spacecraft at L1 with an EUV imager, coronagraph, magnetic field and plasma instruments.
PSLV-C57/Aditya-L1 Mission:
The launch of Aditya-L1 by PSLV-C57 is accomplished successfully.
The vehicle has placed the satellite precisely into its intended orbit.
India’s first solar observatory has begun its journey to the destination of Sun-Earth L1 point.
3K
24K
120K
1
3
41
7
4
39
☀️🌬️Status of the
#solarwind
: a
#solarstorm
impacted Earth with a side-hit, with fast solar wind speeds but uncooperative magnetic field, so
#aurora
was confined to high latitudes.
Another similar storm should arrive any moment, arrival forecasts range from early to late May 11.
2
12
40
6
0
31
Well this could be the first chance for
#aurora
at high latitudes since quite a while, starting Tue Aug 27.
2
#coronalholes
are rotating into Earth-view, time-shifted STEREO-A data indicates the streams (max speed 600 km/s) may produce some magnetic disturbances!
2
23
33
The STEREO-Ahead heliospheric imagers by
@RAL_Space_STFC
saw this beauty of a
#solarstorm
that led to a moderate geomagnetic storm a few days ago on Aug 27/28.
This is close to the real-time images we want from a dedicated mission to the Lagrange 5 point, under study at
@esa
.
2
8
37
Our spaceweather forecasting group
@IWF_oeaw
is honored to present the project of the week at the Austrian science fund
@FWF_at
about modeling
#solarstorms
with heliospheric imagers!
See this cool ensemble simulation of storm fronts by Tanja Amerstorfer.
3
4
36
Here's the verification from last weeks
#magneticstorm
#aurora
prediction. The Dst index measures geomagnetic activity (=higher for lower Dst values). The mean difference of the prediction to observation is 5 +/-15 nT which is really very little in
#spaceweather
.
#mindblown
🤯
3
16
37
@fermatslibrary
In all fairness, most textbooks would have left these trivial steps as an exercise to the reader.
3
0
39
There is a decent geomagnetic storm ongoing, with Dst at -100 nT. Seems to be a mixture of a
#solarstorm
flank (?) and a high speed stream, with fluctuating magnetic fields, and now pointing more towards north. STEREO-A at 6.3 deg longitude sees it quite similarly.
1
10
37
☀️🌬️ We have updated our
#solarstorm
(ICME) catalog including missions like
@ESASolarOrbiter
at
now containing 1114 ICMEs. New events include this storm that first impacted Solar Orbiter on 2021 Nov 3, at 0.85 AU and right at the Sun-Earth line,
2
11
36
These
@MissionSoho
coronagraph images tell us that Earth dodged a few massive
#solarstorms
in the last few days. All were directed to about 90° west of Earth (to the right here, looking towards the Sun), and so only lead to weak side impacts on the Earth's magnetic field.
2
11
38
I've added the revised solar cycle magnitude prediction (red) by
@swmcintosh
to our daily updated tracking of the solar cycle progression. The newly predicted maximum sunspot number of 190 ± 20 is very close to an average solar cycle (green).
1
12
38