Xavier Jaravel
@XJaravel
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Professor @LSEecon. Chairman French Council of Economic Analysis @CAEinfo. Coeditor AEJ:Applied @AEAjournals. Former @IGF_finances.
Joined January 2015
[1/20] Comment stabiliser la dette publique ? Quel est le bon rythme d’ajustement ? Quels leviers budgétaires mobiliser ? C’est à ces questions ambitieuses que s’attaque la dernière publication @CAEinfo, pour nourrir le débat parlementaire 👇👇👇👇 https://t.co/KDpkPVIwu4
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Pourquoi les chiffres de PIB par habitant ou de PIB par heures travaillées semblent si différent selon la source ou la personne qui les cite ? Une petite explication
Productivity (= GDP per hour worked) is the same in the US and in the EU: €60 But life expectancy is higher in the EU, people have more leisure, and there is less inequality The idea that the US economy is doing much better and the EU lagging behind is a myth
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Thought-provoking take
So after all these hours talking about AI, in these last five minutes I am going to talk about: Horses. Engines, steam engines, were invented in 1700. And what followed was 200 years of steady improvement, with engines getting 20% better a decade. For the first 120 years of
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Thrilled to see our paper on “Spending Limits, Public Funding, and Election Outcomes” published in the @JEEA_News! 👇👇 We investigate the effects of far-reaching campaign finance rules, with @Nikolaj_Broberg and @ClemenceTricaud. Short thread on what we do and find (1/n).
Forthcoming article "Spending Limits, Public Funding, and Election Outcomes" by @Nikolaj_Broberg @VinPons and @ClemenceTricaud
@EEANews @OUPAcademic
https://t.co/X1z5YeB0WZ
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My new Factful Friday is up on LI! 👉 Everyone talks about reshoring. And the anecdotes are real. 👉But the economy-wide data tell a different story. ⭐ This Factful Friday shows that the US manufacturing base is now more exposed to China than at any point since the 1990s. 👉And
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GPT-5 as science accelerator. "GPT compressed months of reasoning into minutes, uncovered non-obvious hypotheses and directly shaped experimentally testable strategies." More examples in the paper (link below)
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10 économistes @PatrickArtus @ojblanchard1 @cahuc_piere @XJaravel @landais_camille @ThomasPHI2 @pisaniferry @alexandraroulet en soutien 2 @SDJChallenges contre la remise en cause 2 la ligne éditoriale & des garanties d’indépendance de @Challenges par @LVMH
lemonde.fr
TRIBUNE. Dix économistes, parmi lesquels Olivier Blanchard, Thomas Philippon et Alexandra Roulet soutiennent, dans une tribune au « Monde », la société des journalistes de « Challenges », qui demande...
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"Attending an Ivy-Plus college instead of the average flagship public college increases students' chances of reaching the top 1% of the earnings distribution by 50%"
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Une baisse du niveau scolaire alarmante 🏫 "Il faut trouver le bon équilibre entre les fiches de cours que vous allez donner en tant qu’enseignant et la liberté pédagogique." 💬 @XJaravel 💬 @jmvittori 🎙️ @LEGENRA
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Attention: PhD students and early-career researchers interested in the fiscal and economic effects of productivity policies -- particularly R&D, immigration, and infrastructure permitting. Apply for this @SloanFoundation @nberpubs fellowship (due 1/4/26):
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Je reviens dans @LesEchos sur nos travaux @CAEinfo sur la dette publique, notamment s'agissant du rythme de consolidation budgétaire et des réformes structurelles. Le simulateur budgétaire, qui compte déjà plus de dix mille utilisations, est ici👉 https://t.co/73XbbzphWL
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Je reviens dans @LesEchos sur nos travaux @CAEinfo sur la dette publique, notamment s'agissant du rythme de consolidation budgétaire et des réformes structurelles. Le simulateur budgétaire, qui compte déjà plus de dix mille utilisations, est ici👉 https://t.co/73XbbzphWL
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🚨 𝗝𝗼𝗯 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗣𝗮𝗽𝗲𝗿 🚨 “The Sentiment Channel of Fiscal Policy”, with @MBellifemine (LSE) & J. Tozzo (Bank of Italy) How does government spending stimulate the economy? We uncover a new transmission mechanism: the sentiment channel. 𝗜𝗻 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁: Government
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Intéressant: une des premières estimations de l'effet (très élevé) sur l'exil fiscal de l'augmentation, en 2021, de l'impôt sur la fortune norvégien, de 0,85% a 1,1% au-dessus de 20 million de couronnes (20M NOK ~1,7 million d'euros). Court 🧵sur l'importance de ce résultat.
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I made a list of forecasts of the impact of AI on economic growth over the next decade. A few observations... (🧵): https://t.co/eCaw0qPNaA
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Hi all, please spread the word and we hope everyone can make good use of this new data drop: https://t.co/1DSR2NZ38p The full surviving establishment-level Census of Manufactures manuscripts from 1850, 1860, 1870, and 1880!
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What happens when online job applicants start using LLMs? It ain't good. 1. Pre-LLM, cover letter quality predicts your work quality, and a good cover gets you a job 2. LLMs wipe out the signal, and employer demand falls 3. Model suggests high ability workers lose the most 1/n
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This graph has been floating around every couple months, arguing that the top 10% of earners account for 50% of consumption. Anyone familiar with economic statistics should intuitively feel it must not be right. So I dug into it a bit, and indeed, it's (mostly) not.
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