Fred Krueger
@dotkrueger
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Investor. I give my opinions, but not Financial Advice. Math PhD. (Stanford) 6 Years Prop Trading 10 exits. (500MM$) Bitcoin maxi.
Los Angeles, CA
Joined August 2009
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Last Seen Profiles
Millennials are upset that Boomers bought houses in the 1970s for 40K USD, which are now worth 1 Million, 50 years later.
The same Millennials aren't lining up to buy Bitcoin at 40K, which will probably get to 1 Million in only 10 years.
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From somebody I know who has 1 Billion dollars worth of BTC:
"have been getting calls from the big banks to buy off market. You can post that"
I won't mention the person's name.
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Technical Analysis is for Idiots.
This idiot shorted BTC again at 50K two days ago based on "High Pivots" and "48K being a double top".
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Bitcoin 69K in November 2021 is very different from Bitcoin 69K in April 2024.
In November 2021, the Power Law "fair value" was 24.5K. We were trading at 2.8X that. In log terms, thats about 1.6 standard deviations! That's VERY expensive.
Today the power law model "fair value"…
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Imagine you have 1 bitcoin. You bought that bitcoin at 3k in 2017.
You don’t have much in other assets.
You have an urgent need for 35k.
Option 1. Sell your bitcoin. Pay 30k in state and federal taxes. Pay the bill. You are left with 0.1 bt
Option 2. Borrow 35k on Thor. No…
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There are 1.82 Million BTC on ALL the exchanges.
Every day, the ETFs are buying 10K, or about 0.5%.
In one week that's 4% of THE ENTIRE TRADING SUPPLY OF BITCOIN.
So now multiply by 12 weeks. Half the supply: "Poof"
Get the Picture?
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I hate to predict it. But 60K. Tonight.
Anybody else feeling it?
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450 Bitcoins mined per day.
BlackRock bought 452 Bitcoins on Friday.
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ETH is completely detached from reality. A deep dive.
---------------------------------------------------------
ETH is at $3,000. Surely this must mean that a ton of people are using ETH, and that this number is only going up, right?
Nope.
Eth, the chain has dropped from 120K…
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With a short squeeze on supply, Bitcoin prices could go to a million pretty quick.
If that happens, the term "rich" will be synonymous with "early Bitcoiner".
A bunch of libertarians who discovered BTC before the masses could literally ending up owning America.
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Fidelity, the second largest ETF, snapped up about 4,000 BTC today. Ark, running in fourth place, gobbled up 1,500. BlackRock hasn't reported yet, but probably topped all of these.
If this was the first day of the launch, that would be one thing. But this is 10 days into the…
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What I am hearing: (A)
- "ETF launch is a failure" -- JP Morgan
- "Nobody Showed up" -- Cramer
- "Another Disaster" -- Peter Schiff
- "Going much lower" -- Crypto Hayes
- "Months left of Grayscale selling" -- Everybody
- "Won't rally until late 2024 / 2025" -- lots of people.
-…
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The Bitcoin ETFs should have a Trillion + in them, not 15 Billion.
The number is wrong. Think about it.
The US Bond market is 51 Trillion.
The Chinese Bond market is 21 Trillion
The Japanese Bond market is 13 Trillion.
The French Bond market is 4 Trillion.
And that's just the…
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I'm officially on the MSTR bandwagon.
I ignored the premium, and got a bunch of calls.
I figure it has value for those who can't buy the ETFs yet (like UK investors)
Saylor may figure out (or not) how to turn the "Bitcoin software co" into a reality.
But the company owns 1% of…
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Once we clear this ATH conclusively -- like 75K, I am convinced we go to 150K very quickly.
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Gold is at a 13.7 Trillion market cap. With a tiny bit of money printing we get to 25 Trillion in 2028.
Bitcoin is Gold 2.0. It's better than Gold. It's digital. Transportable. More Secure.
Gold has been around for 5,000 years but so has the horse.
I drove a car to work today,…
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At 200K, Bitcoin will have a higher market cap than any US stock.
Pretty hard not to own it at that point.
This is going to be a "must have" in any portfolio.
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Older Bitcoiners are MORE impressive to me than younger ones.
Anybody under 30 can be "all in on Bitcoin". If they are wrong, they still have a life in front of them to make it up.
That takes way more balls to do that if you are older.
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Feb Inflows were 117K BTC / 45K BTC = 5 Billion
March is trending 153K BTC / 68K BTC = 10 Billion
Together 270K BTC in 60 days = 15 Billion.
Very likely we get another 100 Billion for the rest of the year. (9 months)
At a 70 multiple, 7 Trillion added to Market Cap
8.4…
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Peter Schiff is, of course, lambasting the new BTC ETFs.
So I thought I would have a look at his flagship "EuroPacific Gold Fund". Over the last 10 years, this mediocre fund has returned ZERO percent, even while Gold itself, has managed to increase 30%.
If this wasn't bad…
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Prediction:
Bitcoin ETFs will pass Gold ETFs in Market Cap in 2024.
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10 Things i recommend every new people in Bitcoin do:
1. get a hardware wallet and learn how to reset it from scratch with your seed phrase.
2. read the "bitcoin standard"
3. buy IBIT, FBTC, ARKB, or BITO in your stock account
4. get some actual bitcoin into your hardware wallet…
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The 2020 Bull was primarily fueled by borrowed money and leverage
3AC borrowing from Genesis to buy GBTC
Terra Luna buying BTC by issuing stablecoins
Degens borrowing from Binance to play 100x perps
MSTR borrowing from bondholders to acquire BTC
This new market is based on…
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The Financialization of Bitcoin. This video goes over the history of financial products (mortgages, gold, real estate etc..).
BTC is going to 500K in the next 4 years. This should convince you.
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ETFs own 1.5% of all Gold.
ETFs already own 3% of all Bitcoin.
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Bitcoin is a Virus.
After 15 years of incubation in a control group of hardcore libertarians, it has now broken through to Wall Street, where it replicating at an alarming rate.
Prepare for the Zombie Apocalypse.
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Who is ready to take the ATH next week?
Calling all Spartans.
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The best case for Bitcoin is it just grinds higher over the next 6 months.
No sudden moves. No euphoria.
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I'm curating a list of "Bitcoin Idiots" -- people who absolutely don't understand Bitcoin and think it's worth zero. Any names that you can add to this list would be appreciated.
Here's the list:
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After the attack on Pearl Harbor, stocks dipped 3 percent, but recovered within a month.
After the Cuban middle crisis stocks were 25 percent higher.
After the gulf war stocks rallied 15 percent
Stocks have done fantastic since Russia invaded Ukraine
War is bad short term.…
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If not tomorrow, then ATH next week.
It's not going to take long now.
Anybody get that feeling?
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Ultimately, the adoption of Bitcoin probably will follow an S curve, not a power law.
Bitcoin is 3,000 lines of code that define a new world money. This DNA replicates on autopilot.
We started in 2009.
Hal Finney predicted full Bitcoinization in 2045.
Let's work with 2059 for…
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My position on ETH.
At the end of the day Bitcoin is the revolution. Finite money that can be held in self custody and sent peer to peer without permission.
Every other cryptocurrency is fighting for some other much smaller use case. ETH used to be about smart contracts, then…
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2 Years (or less) toward Hyperbolic Price Shock
------------------------------------------------------
There are 19.6MM mined BTC
70% of them haven't moved in a year, and quite frankly not likely to move (lost, Satoshi coins, or in MSTR etc..)
= 5.8 MM possibly available to buy…
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Bitcoin as an asset has 4 key properties
1. It is hard to make.
2. It is easy to move.
3. It is easy to audit.
4. It is easy to hold yourself.
Gold is also hard to make, but it fails on the last 3.
Fiat is easy to move, but fails on 1,3, and 4.
Bitcoin is just a better form of…
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With Blackrock, Bitcoin is going past 100K this year.
Don't sell.
For any reason.
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Cathie Wood: "We're going to 1 Million (and more) faster than I expected. The major wirehouses are still not involved".
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My analysis
A fund was shorting mstr buying btc
1 billion on each side
Got stopped out Friday
Sold 1 billion worth of btc
Triggered liquidations
Also all week shrimp crabs and fish selling
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The case for ATH within the next 30 to 60 days.
Let's step back and ask ourselves how the next 30 to 60 days could play out. A lot of people are fearing a dip, but I want to lay out the bull scenario.
GBTC selling pressure on BTC price is largely over. The 1 Billion in Gemini…
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Understanding Bitcoin is an IQ test.
If you think it's a "pyramid scheme", you lose. HFSP.
If you think "Solana is better because its faster", you lose. HFSP.
If you think "ETH is better because it's more programable and has more layers", you lose. HFSP.
If you think "Cardano…
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Fifth Avenue, in 1901 vs 1913.
The Horse, like Gold, was the standard for 5,000 years.
Then in a space of 12 years ... no more horses.
Bitcoin.
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Feels to me that we are about to achieve "escape velocity". Anything you thought you knew about Bitcoin is now obsolete.
BlackRock and their customers now control the market.
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Bitcoin is a completely new form of money, 100% decentralized and with a finite supply.
It is something human beings have never seen.
Because it is so different from every other form of money, it's easy to dismiss it.
All other money systems, every single one, has a supply…
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Episode 18.
All 11 Bitcoin ETFs Approved.
Gensler careful to say "Only 1 crypto asset meets the test (for now): Bitcoin."
Thanks for following me on this ETF countdown.
And, don't be too cute with your timing.
Buy Bitcoin. ASAP. And forget about it.
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Bitcoin is notoriously IMPOSSIBLE to trade.
It makes all its moves in a dozen or so days a year. You can't predict when these moves will come.
The market will feel weak, and then get a bid out of nowhere. If will feel strong and then it will reverse and crush you.
If you are…
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This graph is simply amazing. When you plot Price and Time both in log scale, it's clear Bitcoin is just on a relentless power law. HT/
@moneyordebt
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End of year thoughts on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s core idea is finiteness. No other blockchain really gets this,
Ethereum claims it is “sound money” which is a joke. It’s entire issuance schedule was updated just two years ago, and a burn mechanism was bolted on to make it appear…
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It's going to be tempting soon to "take profits".
Resist that temptation.
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My number one concern in life is that ETH ETF.
It's critical we keep the Wall Street spigot 100% focused on Bitcoin for at least one more year.
If they accept the ETH ETF in 2025, it will be too late. Wall Street will be already pot committed on Bitcoin.
If, by some horror,…
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There is almost no front running of the Bitcoin ETF.
Close to zero.
If you work at a the ETF desk at Blackrock, you have been given strict orders not to mess up what Saylor calls "the most significant financial markets product in 30 years".
The last thing you do is buy GBTC,…
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Bitcoin Mathematical models: let's get the facts straight from the grandmaster: Stephen Perrenod.
Stephan is the author of over 20 scientific research papers, and holds a B.S. degree in Physics from M.I.T. and Masters and Ph. D. degrees in Astrophysics from Harvard University.…
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A word from the future to the first generation of Bitcoiners.
THE ETF is coming. You can't stop it. Get over your shock, and start accepting that this is going to be the way that Bitcoin is going to be held by most Americans going forward.
You are certainly welcome to keep…
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Best line from the latest Saylor Livera at 2h15 min. It's about the world post ETF.
"There are bunch of people, retirees, who will pick up the phone and say "put 5% of my assets in Bitcoin". It will be a 15 second phone call and they will hang up."
This is EXACTLY why this ETF…
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People investing in AirBnBs and "starter homes" as opposed to Bitcoin will regret it for the rest of lives.
There will be no second chances. You just made the wrong decision. You lose.
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The first call on Monday will be
"Have you seen Bitcoin? Holy Shit!"
Followed by a smash IBIT buy.
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Bitcoin:
1. went up 1,000,000 times in price over 15 years
2. when plotted in log-log space follows a power law with correlation 97%
Most quantitative modelers would say this is impossible. Nothing like this has ever been seen in stocks, commodities or fixed income. It's…
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Bitcoin Price is going to be highly non-linear.
Anything is possible.
Now that we have ETFs, i wouldn't even rule out 1 million within 2 years.
There is no real barrier to price going up here.
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Bitcoin is going to a Million.
The only question is: Do you have the Brass Balls needed to go there with it?
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Simple observation:
most people buying these BTC ETFs won't sell in 2024.
This is a different kind of buyer than the degen we are used to.
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1 Billion a day in new demand should create 100 Billion in new market cap daily.
Thats enough to move the price to 117K in 10 trading sessions.
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DogeCoin Market Cap: 12.2 Billion
MSTR Market Cap: 11.9 Billion
WTF
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You are an investor. You need to do 2 things:
1. Get as Much Bitcoin Possible
2. Don't sell your Bitcoin for the next 3 Years at an absolute minimum.
Both are important.
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Bitcoin 1 Million.
Not a question of "if". Question is "when".
Power law curve with n=5.8 suggests 2032 is a target.
So 8 years from now.
I think its faster, followed by a longer reversion to the mean bear market.
So my best guess is 3 years from now, followed by a bear…
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Just watched a no-coiner open a Fidelity account (3min), sync BofA with Plaid, and transfer in 100K.
I had forgotten how easy it is, relative to a Coinbase account (or other)
There was no taking a picture of a drivers license, no selfie with today's date, no 3-D biometric scan.…
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British Hodl made a great point in our space today.
The 2020-21 Bull market was driven by people who didn't have very much money, and wanted to 10x that with massive leverage on Binance / FTX etc.. They will pick the highest vol coins and go with perps. Things go a bit wrong,…
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Second assault on 69,000 in progress.
I've got to to be honest with you soldiers, some of you won't make it.
The rest -- i'll see you on the other side.
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Let's zoom out. We are in fantastic shape.
ETF inflows have just begun.
Halving 53 days away.
ATH in our sights.
Locked and loaded.
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In the movie "civil war" Kirsten Dunst offers a militia member $300 for half a tank of gas, only to be told
"300 buys you a sandwich. We got ham...or cheese"
The Gold move above $2,400 is a warning sign.
The botched treasury auctions are warning signs.
We're headed into…
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With Merrill now on board, we have just enabled a potential of 2 Million accounts and 3 Trillion in assets into the Bitcoin ETFs
Wells Fargo Investments -- more.
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When we hit 75K, the mother of all short coverings begins.
And the "asset allocators" who thought they had time, will realize they have, actually, very little.
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The great thing about these ETFs is that you know there will be 200 million dollars (or more) of new buying tomorrow regardless of the price. In fact, the higher the price, the more demand.
Exact opposite of binance and ftx shorting the market at 50k in 2020
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Huge news!
BREAKING: Fidelity now allocates 1% to spot
#Bitcoin
in their All-in-One Conservative ETF!
They will ALL do it! 🚀
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6K
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I wouldn't be surprised if we were up huge tomorrow.
We used to call it "turnaround tuesday". Once you get a week of relentless selling, it often ends on Monday, and gets reversed the next day.
DO NOT SELL.
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Going back to 2014, the smartest thing you could do was to buy Bitcoin and do absolutely nothing for the next ten years.
I suspect the same will end up being true in 2024.
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BTC is going to become world money.
Saylor can't say that out loud. But it's true.
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Ultimately Bitcoin will become the only form of money accepted globally.
It will replace the dollar for oil trade and major contracts.
There will be bonds and debt, but they will be denominated in Bitcoin
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Clearly the "ETF is not priced in" if people are this nervous it might not happen.
Bigger potential for a huge rally on the event.
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The people fading this move are idiots. They don't deserve to get rich on Bitcoin. If you are idiot, do me a favor and unfollow me. Here's the real data:
IBIT did 1 Billion new flows in the last 5 days. That's only 24% less that the QQQs. Amazing.
Total BTC ETFs now > 650,000…
Another way to put the bitcoin ETF flows in ETF context (besides showing their
#s
relative to past new launches) is how they stack up to ALL ETFs in past 1 week flows. Even after four days two of them are in Top 5 and three in Top 10, up there w the studs $VOO, $QQQ et al.
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Top 10 reasons why the BTC ETF will change everything.
#10
. Very little money has come into Crypto since the SBF debacle in Nov 2022. Prices have climbed this year, but not based on new fiat coming in to buy BTC.
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Here's some actual liquidation data. On Mar 4 we had one giant 800MM Liquidation. On Mar 14, 15 and 16 (today) we have crossed 1 Billion.
This is forced selling. It happens fast. It pushes down prices agressively, especially if there is no buying pressure to match (Friday was…
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At the end of the day 700 million or so net inflows. That should have potentially moved the market 7 percent up with multiplier effect, but it’s too small relative to the speculative build up. So we are back to where we were 10 days ago.
The main thing is the seed has been…
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CODE RED ALERT: Bears are going to get crushed.
Prepare a casket for Garett Solloway.
10K new BTC inflows. A new record.
UPDATE
Bitcoin ETF Net In Flows + 10.2K
#BTC
🚀
New All Time High 692K BTC Held in ETFs
New 9 ETFs + 12K BTC
Highlights
Blackrock +7.5K BTC 🤯
Fidelity + 3K BTC
Follow our ETF Tracker for Live Updates
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My general thesis is Wall Street doesn't care at all about Bitcoin. They view the new ETFs as "meh".
Price is really important. Once we get to 70K, the advisors will be getting the calls: "why aren't we in this?". IBIT will be trading at $30. Thats the only number that they will…
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Instead of Diamond ring, give her a whole Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is forever.
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This is the FINANCIAL TIMES -- Not Pomp's Newsletter. H/T Steven Lubka.
"There is no bigger investment story right now. Google searches for “bitcoin ETF” have tripled over the past week."
"I would be mad to miss out."
This is the Number 1 European Financial News Source giving…
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The BTC ETF changes everything. Say goodbye to 5-digit Bitcoin this year.
#doctorfred
#BullishAF
#Bitcoin
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Deep dive on the Bitcoin ETF. We have about 40 days left before this is likely to be approved. My take on how you should play this.
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Hyperbitcoinization timeline and the meaning of 5.8
-------------------------------------------------------
I have done a lot of thinking over the last 24 hours on the meaning of power laws, and the implication for future Bitcoin prices.
But as i asked
@Giovann35084111
the…
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Central Banks Can't Print More Bitcoin.
They will need to buy it, just like you or me.
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Tomorrow is the day the Green (187 BTC) switches places with the Orange (190 BTC).
It will have taken less than 30 days for the New9 to overtake MSTR in Bitcoin Holdings.
ETFs are eating the world. They ate every other asset class, and they're having Bitcoin for desert.
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There is one fundamental difference between Bitcoin 2020 and Bitcoin 2024.
The ETFs.
It's that simple. Nothing else really matters.
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I feel like I am at a "Bitcoin doubters" conference in Dubai.
- "The ETF is going to be gamed by hedge funds"
- "Blackrock is keeping the price down so they can buy more"
- "I like Bitcoin, but it's over. I would like to show you my portfolio of 70 shitcoin companies"
- "The…
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