Rafael
@n3ocortex
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Ex-neuroscientist | Python Maximalist | Swing HODLer | Data Scientist | Co-founder @glassnode
Berlin
Joined June 2016
"2% of accounts control 95% of all #Bitcoin " Wrong. BTC ownership is much less concentrated than often reported – and has dispersed over time. Meanwhile, whale supply has increased – suggesting institutional investors arriving. Report: https://t.co/mY1DExggsQ THREAD 👇👇👇
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7/ As always, all charts and data available on https://t.co/zXALwwIvCB. Fin.
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6/ Our #BTC Long/Short Bias chart, tracking the aggregate net positions of the largest BTC traders on Hyperliquid, showed a steep rise in net shorts starting in Oct 6th, well before Friday's events. While levels have since recovered, they remain deeply negative. Stay cautious.
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5/ Hyperliquid’s heatmap of #BTC liquidation clusters was virtually wiped clean. Levels both above and below spot were triggered, likely driven by a rapid buildup of liquidation levels in cross-margined accounts and traders closing positions in light of the events.
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4/ Yes, this was indeed the largest liquidation event on record so far. And with incomplete reporting across exchanges, real figures are almost certainly larger.
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3/ We saw the largest open interest wipe-out in history. For #BTC alone, over $10B in open interest was erased across all major exchanges.
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2/ Altcoin funding rates plunged to a median of -0.4 yesterday – levels not seen since the 2022 bear market. Today, they’ve reset and bounced back above zero, signaling a swift shift in positioning.
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A few datapoints on the recent market move – 1/ While #Bitcoin corrected comparatively mildly, unsurprisingly, alts saw one of the sharpest daily drawdowns in years: the median return across alts was as low as –20%.
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$BTC touched +1 Standard Deviation (SD) above the Short-Term Holder cost basis (~$120k), a level that has historically acted as resistance during strong momentum phases. If this trend continues, the next resistance is at +2 SD - around $136k: https://t.co/fh52aHJ33P
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Increasing adoption of Tether Gold $XAUt seen across key on-chain metrics, such as address activity, number of holders, transaction count, and gas used.
Tether Gold XAUt will become the biggest tokenized gold market in the world. Gold price is going up, as a consequence of the world trying to hedge Chaos. Central banks are loading up hundreds of billions in gold as part of their reserves. XAUt opens up the digital gold
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An on-chain analogue to the Death Cross has emerged. The 30-day volume-weighted price of $BTC has crossed below the 180-day, signaling weakening momentum. Historically, this pattern preceded 3–6 months of bearish trends. Live chart: https://t.co/uEn5ko2Lge
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#Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) realized losses spiked to $23.4M yesterday, marking one of the largest spikes in the past three months. For comparison, previous peaks clocked in at $38M on Feb 3 and $25M on Dec 20: https://t.co/UotiSk9qqe
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$96k remains a key level. Below that, $93k comes into play—but really, we’ll remain in good shape above $88k. #Bitcoin
https://t.co/w2UvSIuWjn
4/ Long-term view: Zooming out, we see the importance of the $96k–$98k range, confirmed as a dominant zone of investor interest. However, what’s striking is the large gap in accumulated supply below $88k. There’s minimal support in this range, with the next major accumulation
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24/ h/t to all the folks that have in one way or the other contributed to the charts in the past years e.g. @woonomic @dpuellARK @Checkmatey @CryptoVizArt @UkuriaOC @caprioleio @PositiveCrypto @dilutionproof @QuantMario (prob forgot some, sorry)
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23/ I compiled all these charts (and others) on bull markets and cycle tops in a single dashboard accessible here – https://t.co/uMhDEZgmI5
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22/ Important remarks: * Never rely on single datapoints – confluence is your friend. * This is a non-comprehensive list of (on-chain) charts and datapoints that help gauge market cycles – but there’s much more that’s not covered here. I will add as I (re-)discover. * Charts
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21/ SLRV Ribbons. Both moving averages still trending up, only becomes bearish at rounded tops and crossover. No indication of a top at this time.
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19/ STH-SOPR. Looking out for continuous increased profit taking of short-term holders as the market reaches peak euphoria. Currently elevated, but not sustained – more.
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18/ LTH Inflation Rate. The most bearish chart I've come across so far, screams caution. Currently diving into it to better assess its implications in this bull run.
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17/ The Sell-Side Risk Ratio compares the total realized profits/losses to the realized market capitalization. Large values are associated with high value realization and relatively high market volatility, typical of late stage bull markets. Below is the LTH version of the
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16/ Pi Cycle Top Indicator. Based solely on price, shows when #BTC becomes significantly overheated, i.e. when the shorter SMA reaches the levels of the larger SMA. Has worked for previous tops. Currently the short moving average sits well below the larger ($74k vs. $129k), ergo
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