Jared L Kubin
@JaredKubin
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Hedge Fund Founder. Dad. HBS .šā¾ļøIsaiah 41:10. No One is Coming. Die Empty. Viking. War Horse. Whatever it Takes.Everything is a Test.*NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE*
Washington, DC
Joined April 2010
šØAI PORTFOLIO RISK ANALYTICS (v1)šØ LIQUIDATION NATION!! Today I am releasing AI PORTFOLIO RISK ANALYTICS to the public GenAI is going to transform how we explain and communicate risk. Most platforms show you numbers. They are hard to explain, hard to interpret, and generally
"RISK MODELS FIT HISTORY... NOT THE FUTURE" *I am writing this LONG post as a precursor to a LIQUIDATION NATION upgrade coming soon.... it is meant to provide color and context to investors new to risk models and to give some quants additional things to think about related to
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Elf Night 2: Escape from a Rocket So my son being my sonā¦ figured he would film elf again because he is trapped in a rocket. Dada is ready for the challenge.
Anyone else using AI to convince their kids ELF is real? More tokens.
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Or maybe they are trained on evaluation tests ā¦ see my Karpathy post
This paper from Stanford and Harvard explains why most āagentic AIā systems feel impressive in demos and then completely fall apart in real use. The core argument is simple and uncomfortable: agents donāt fail because they lack intelligence. They fail because they donāt adapt.
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Pretty sure last time this happened the Hunt brothers went from the penthouse to the outhouse. Someone can fact check that
BREAKINGšØ: An ounce of silver is now worth more than a barrel of oil. This has only happened once before.
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Follow upā¦ kids lost their minds. Iām safe with them believing in elf/Santa for another season
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WEEKEND R&D: "stop asking if an alpha passes a test... start asking how much it shrinks" was my starting point.. then I started thinking about Quant v Retail... TLDR: Whether you are using someone else's "system" from a paid substack or your own... you should at least attempt to
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Anyone else using AI to convince their kids ELF is real? More tokens.
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Broke his jaw in two places ā¦ I guess 3 thoughts: 1. Damn. FAFO 2. Respect. To stand in the ring with AJ you had to know you could die 3. Risk.ā¦ manage risk. Always.
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LA winning the World Series isnāt proof that money buys championships ā¦itās evidence that extreme outliers are playing a different probability game than the rest of the leagueā¦ they bought margin for error *quick Z SCORE to drive it home*
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RETAIL vs QUANT WAR 2025: https://t.co/oa1B8vszGE exists because the failure rate isnāt destiny. Itās a skill gap dressed up as a talent gap. Iām an inst. investor and Iām āteam retailā. The snobbery makes me barf. Retail doesnāt fail because theyāre āless smart.ā Stats are
šØAI PORTFOLIO RISK ANALYTICS (v1)šØ LIQUIDATION NATION!! Today I am releasing AI PORTFOLIO RISK ANALYTICS to the public GenAI is going to transform how we explain and communicate risk. Most platforms show you numbers. They are hard to explain, hard to interpret, and generally
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LIQUIDATION NATION eod 12/19: *BIG BETA RIPPAH -> wow* **SPACE MOB TO THE MOON** ***SHORTS VAPORIZED*** ****Cyclical tremors in Housing & Retail***** HIGHEST $ OPEX of all time does not disappoint. Some MAJOR upgrades coming to LiquidationNation as soon as me & the team can
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Life of a KWANTā¦ 1) drop NAN 2) fill median 3) ffill (forward fill)
Don't get too excited about this CPI print. A lot of holes in the data.
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LIQUIDATION NATION mid day 12/18: *FULL AI/TECH rally on $MU monster revisions...$NVDA "like"* **shorts yesterday -> liquidated today* ***LARGEST ever OPEX tomorrow ... but first lets get through QYLD today*** LN Process: 1. What risks do I have in my portfolio? 2. What
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Chance to do the funniest thingā¦
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* SA: OpenAI holds preliminary talks with investors about raising new funding at valuation of around $750B - The Information*
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Love this, lot to unpack and discover if you into equities.
LIQUIDATION NATION mid day 12/17: *massive de-gross underway ** AI getting blown apart *** "losers" positive on the day **** $ORCL continues to be patient ZERO
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LIQUIDATION NATION mid day 12/17: *massive de-gross underway ** AI getting blown apart *** "losers" positive on the day **** $ORCL continues to be patient ZERO
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I really liked this post. This was the whole idea behind https://t.co/942CpJt1Aoā¦ giving retail investors a way to decompose their positions into the thematic factors actually driving returns, so you're not flying blind on exposures you didn't know you had If I had to summarize
Short thread about momentum as a risk factor and why you should take it seriously. At first glance it sounds stupid ā why would stocks that recently went up continue to move together in the future?
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Not sure I can fit many more logos on my OAI Ecosystem graphic
Big scoop from my colleagues. Amazon in talks to invest over $10B in OpenAI!
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