Jared L Kubin
@JaredKubin
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Hedge Fund Founder. Dad. HBS .šā¾ļø. Kings 18:27. No One is Coming. Die Empty. Viking. War Horse. Whatever it Takes. Everything is a Test.*NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE*
Washington, DC
Joined April 2010
Investor Manifesto Pt2: VIBE IS KING Nine months after the 2025 manifesto the tape feels like it is moving at 3x speed. SPACs are rising from the graveyard. AI spec energy plays are +1000%. Once laughed at āfuture revenue metricsā are moving mega caps $100s of billions in a day.
2025 Investor Manifesto: Variant Views + Changes in Vol Throw out everything you have read in textbooks. Throw out history heuristics. Throw out comps. Just torch it all. Modern Portfolio Theory is dead. Hubris is the downfall of mankind. Hubris in investing is being static.
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LIQUIDATION NATION 10/16: "In space, no one can hear you scream" * TSM fade set the tone early ** etf front runners got rinsed mid morning *** -211bp intraday QQQ move is w-o-w **** fins / credit screaming "SOS" - GS HF INDEX: monster +375bp move - Shorted Names -445bp - BTC
LIQUIDATION NATION 10/15: "Welcome to the party, pal" *intraday VOL picking up -> regime is trying to change? **AI SEMI complex rip city on another "deal" (see my CAPEX chart) ***unwind INDEX hitting ytd lows as Low Quality & VOL go parabolic at rolling 4+ Sharpes - **9-1-1**
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Pastor Charles delivers another inspiring sermon this week in which he declares his position on marriage; coupled with his related declaration on loving your neighbor as yourself. Ā This effectively and respectfully mediates between the often extreme views on these issues.
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OAI & TSM: two new incremental pieces to the mosaic this week as I am back and catching up .... no conclusions, just more questions... 1) Where is all the TSM CAPEX? My very smart CIO friend asked me this... he has covered TSM for 15+ yrs.... So I will ask you all... where is
Updated OAI Generational AI CAPEX Run (v5 GRAPHIC!!) *Best Guess: ~$600bn needed with Equity / Debt & Revenue *Scenario 1: Small Replace ā Gaps vs $40B/$90B sources: $305B(floor) ā¢ $345B(mid) ā¢ $375B(high) *Scenario 2: Additive ā Gaps vs $40B/$90B sources: $565B(floor) ā¢
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"Quality (closed at 20-year lows with unprofitable tech +25% in 10 sessions and high SI names on pace for their best month of the year)" **what a line from the MS Trading desk this am... if you have been following LIQUIDATION NATION you have been all over this
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Wanted to recirculate thisā¦ my follower count was around 100. Let me know what you think
Faith & Work: How to have both? I have been receiving a lot of questions on this very topic. First, let me say I donāt claim to have the answerājust my thoughts and experiences. My faith, my family, and my work are the three foundational elements of my life, where 100% of my
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Vinyl is vital to so many industries. It's the backbone of a diverse set of products, like pipe for safe water delivery.
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This is a great question by @pierpointguy ā¦ if you take anything away from what I postā¦ itās when you āhear a claimā donāt just agreeā¦ go do the math and try to square it. Quantify everything. Relentlessly. Come up with own thesis and test them. Refine them. I test mine in
@pierpointguy Iām first to admit anything I post could be wrongā¦ itās my latest thinking which I catalogue so people can see the evolution of my thoughts. Everyone always just wants the answer. In fact I hope people comment with correct info so I can course correct faster. TLDR: whenever
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LIQUIDATION NATION 10/15: "Welcome to the party, pal" *intraday VOL picking up -> regime is trying to change? **AI SEMI complex rip city on another "deal" (see my CAPEX chart) ***unwind INDEX hitting ytd lows as Low Quality & VOL go parabolic at rolling 4+ Sharpes - **9-1-1**
LIQUIDATION NATION 10/14: "Are You Not Entertained?!" *trade nukes the overnight **ODTE and Powell save the abyss ***only to be throttled by a 3:30 tweet (last time the intra market tweet was the appetizer) Today was "revenge of Value & Cyclicals" -> L/S ducking and hiding
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Long Short managers in October
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Talking markets, factors, and Ai with Keith at 11am. What do you want to hear about?
Day2 of Pure Apolitical Content! GAME ON! Hedgeye Investing Summit Is LIVE This Week https://t.co/PtQVFxBQY1 via @hedgeye
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Updated OAI Generational AI CAPEX Run (v5 GRAPHIC!!) *Best Guess: ~$600bn needed with Equity / Debt & Revenue *Scenario 1: Small Replace ā Gaps vs $40B/$90B sources: $305B(floor) ā¢ $345B(mid) ā¢ $375B(high) *Scenario 2: Additive ā Gaps vs $40B/$90B sources: $565B(floor) ā¢
Updated OAI Generational AI CAPEX RUN (v4) ***OAI / AMD is a major development TLDR : Two Scenarios (Add vs NVDA Replace)ā¦ this is the only thing to figure out that is important. Big AMD EPS impact outyears A) Additive (10 NVDA + 6 AMD = 16 GW) ā¢Systems: ~$450B (NVDA ~$350B
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Announcements: $HOA on Chia will be used as a discount token allowing you to get better investment deals. We will be lowering our royalty for Chia users when investing. Our next property in Detroit will offer the best exchange rate to date.
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LIQUIDATION NATION 10/14: "Are You Not Entertained?!" *trade nukes the overnight **ODTE and Powell save the abyss ***only to be throttled by a 3:30 tweet (last time the intra market tweet was the appetizer) Today was "revenge of Value & Cyclicals" -> L/S ducking and hiding
LIQUIDATION NATION 10/13 : "Get to da Choppa" *3std pain machine **does look like some books got LIQUIDATED today ***spreads blowing back out - GS HF INDEX -340 on day & now -12% mtd (worse(!!) than fall of 2020 with vaccine news) - Shorted Stonks +510bp - High Vol +800(!!!)
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SORA Pls Fix
Salesforce + OpenAI partnership unleashed! š¤ New Agentforce 360 apps now LIVE in ChatGPT ā query CRM, build Tableau dashboards, analyze conversations, even close deals with Agentforce Commerce. Trusted data + seamless workflows + the worldās best AI = unstoppable enterprise
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Risk Reality Check: The Two Sided Blade Imagine in 2026, the marketās a volatile swing machineā¦vol spikes launching AI plays 500% on hype waves, then slamming them with -50% drops, retail crowds surfing zero day peaks before whales dump on insider edges, blue chips swinging
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Iāve been using OAI vs GROK almost like a GAN in my daily coding. Def a cheat code if you can clearly articulate data structure and expected data checks / logs. They are able to check each other and catch small nuance faster than I can. The Trident Approach: 1. GROK 2. CHATGPT
VIBE CODING 101 Rules: 1. Paste schema + sample rows ā Always show the model how data is shaped before asking it to manipulate it 2. Show class tree/APIs ā Share the object relationships and available methods so it wonāt hallucinate structure 3. Define invariants ā State the
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Opening a Truss account pays off ā literally. Fund your account this October and get $100 on us. šø Secure, simple, and built for contractors who value speed and reliability. Sign up today.
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What does the angry TRUTH post look like this am? Wrong answers only
China acts against five US-linked companies with countermeasures.
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Comfortable. Never Tested.
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LIQUIDATION NATION 10/13 : "Get to da Choppa" *3std pain machine **does look like some books got LIQUIDATED today ***spreads blowing back out - GS HF INDEX -340 on day & now -12% mtd (worse(!!) than fall of 2020 with vaccine news) - Shorted Stonks +510bp - High Vol +800(!!!)
LIQUIDATION NATION 10/10: "THIS..IS...SPARTA" *murder on the dance floor edition *while private credit and oil were getting rinsed all week... high vol and p&l screenshot HUBRIS hit a fever pitch culminating Friday * all it took was one tweet -> remember that ... VARIANT VIEWS +
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From Fluorescent Gallery, every fluorescent and LED light cover can be transformed into a unique piece of backlit art!
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