Morgan Housel
@morganhousel
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@collabfund The Psychology of Money: Same As Ever: Director at Markel Group
Seattle, WA
Joined April 2011
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The Gamestop thing is a reminder that investing is not the study of finance. It's the study of how people behave with money, and sometimes those behaviors are incredible.
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"Never make fun of people for mispronouncing a word. It means they learned it by reading."
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School: your paper must be a minimum 5 pages.
Real world: you have seven seconds to catch my attention before I click away.
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Heard a good phrase today: mental liquidity. The ability to quickly change your mind without being stuck on a particular world view.
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Return since 2010:
Netflix: 2,421%
Amazon: 1,468%
Tesla: 1,204%
Google: 421%
Apple: 419%
Domino's Freakin' Pizza: 2,501%
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@CNBC
If you fix that then the headline becomes "This couple that makes $500K and spends too much money still saves more than 20% of their after-tax salary, which is what happens when you make a lot of money."
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Psychology of Money was the bestselling book on Amazon India, all categories, for the second year in a row. Thanks for reading! 🇮🇳
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Teach your kids about compounding: put your money in a savings account and watch it double every 19,876 years.
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Spoke with the CEO of a small company who said "anyone who thinks you can just flip a switch and restart a business after it's been shutdown for two months has never operated a business."
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Elon Musk is now worth more than ExxonMobil.
Take that, gas.
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A lot of good company culture is just paying people well and leaving them alone.
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History will be very kind to Bill Gates.
Bill Gates to build factories to manufacture the 7 most promising vaccines, so they can all be tested in parallel.
“A few billion in this situation, where there’s trillions of dollars being lost economically, it is worth it... we can save months, because every month counts.”
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@CNBC
A hill I'm willing to die on is pointing out that 401k contributions are savings, not expenses.
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I ordered a burger at a bar yesterday. Waitress asked if I wanted fries, I said no.
A woman, ~ 80, shouted across the bar, "I'll take them."
20 min later the food arrives and she yells, "Remember, those are mine," and scooped them off the plate.
I have nothing but respect.
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Psychology of Money just crossed one million copies sold. ⚡️
Thanks for reading!
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Getting rich vs. staying rich, two very different skills.
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“Every job looks easy when you’re not the one doing it.” - Jeff Immelt
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Writing is 50% thinking, 5% typing, 45% deleting the bad parts.
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Met a guy who bid 20% over asking price on a house and the realtors told him he was the lowest of six bids.
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Shut it all down and do a $1 trillion stimulus.
$3k check per adult, that’s $600 billion. Then tell businesses not to worry about payroll during the shutdown.
The rest on loans and foreclosure mitigation.
Do it tomorrow.
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Buffett on margin:
"If you're smart you don't need it and if you're dumb you shouldn't be using it."
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The problem with timing the market is that it's felt like 1999 for about six years now.
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This is my daughter, born today. She’s great, her Mom’s a champion, and nothing else matters.
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Net worth < $1m: Fired.
$2-$5m: Laid off.
$6-10m: Exploring new opportunities.
$11-20m: Taking some time to spend with family.
$20-$99m Don’t want to create further distractions.
> $100m: Settled with regulators without admitting or denying wrongdoing.
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“Lack of FOMO” has to be one of the most important investing skills.
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Bezos on listening to customer complaints:
"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it."
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@waitbutwhy
NASA's New Horizons spacecraft passed Pluto in 2015 within one minute of what it predicted when it launched in 2006.
Three billion miles, 99.99998% accurate.
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Spending money to show people how much money you have is the fastest way to have less money.
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Psychology of Money just crossed half a million copies sold worldwide.
Thanks for reading/buying!
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@CNBC
So $36K in 401k contributions should be added to "what's left over," along with $18K in charity contributions (not an expense either).
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The luckier you are the nicer you should be and the nicer you are the luckier you'll be.
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All past declines look like an opportunity, all future declines look like a risk. 🤷
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New Year's Eve bedtime:
Age 12: 9pm
Age 16: midnight
Age 20: 2am
Age 28: 4am
Age 32: midnight
Age 36: 9pm
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Munger lived such an incredible life, mainly because he did whatever he wanted and said whatever he wanted without fear of others disagreeing.
"I did not intend to get rich. I just wanted to get independent."
BREAKING: Berkshire Hathaway’s Charlie Munger has died at age 99
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You don't realize how efficient Amazon is until you order something from another retailer.
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The most important financial skill is having no FOMO.
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A long post about risk that I've been meaning to write for a while.
It's a personal story, something I haven't talked much about in 20 years.
The Three Sides of Risk
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Housing isn’t a great investment but for most people it’s the best investment they will ever make because it’s the only asset they will leave alone and let compound for 10,20,30 years.
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"The only reason the world seemed like a better place during your childhood is because you were a child." - jon stewart
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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang asked which competitors keep him up at night:
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Doctors: wash your hands.
Americans: we need 600 rolls of toilet paper.
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AMC is now worth more than ... ah, who are we kidding, none of this matters anymore.
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"One of the simplest ways to improve your quality of life is to reduce how long it takes to have a difficult conversation once you know you need to have it."
@david_perell
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The first print run of Psychology of Money was 5,000 copies because we thought that's all it would sell.
Four months later, I learned this morning that worldwide sales just crossed a quarter million.
Thanks for reading. Or at least buying.
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Money buys happiness in the same way drugs bring pleasure: Incredible if done right, dangerous if used to mask a weakness, and disastrous when no amount is enough.
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“The grass is always greener on the side that’s fertilized with bullshit.”
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Down 10%: "Be fearful when others are greedy."
Down 20%: "In the long run we're all dead."
Down 50%: "Though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death ..."
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A boy asks Mozart how to write a symphony.
Mozart tells the boy he's too young and should study more first.
The boy says, "But you were writing symphonies at age 10."
Mozart: "But I wasn't asking people how to do it."
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The U.S. constitution is 7,591 words and Apple's iCloud terms of service agreement is 8,783 words.
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Two things can be true about this market:
1. It's crazy.
2. Social media has permanently changed investor behavior in ways many professional investors haven't yet come to terms with.
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My book, Same As Ever, comes out in a month.
Psychology of Money was about how you, the individual, behaves. Same As Ever is about how we, the collective, behave, and what we keep doing over and over.
It was so much fun to write.
Preorder here:
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"I’m at the stage in life where I stay out of arguments. Even if you say 1+1=5, you’re right. Have fun."
- Keanu Reeves
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How Rockefeller lived to 97: “He avoids all worry. He takes plenty of exercise in open air. And he gets up from the table a little hungry.”
Genes and luck too. But I like that.
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Nothing is more persuasive than the opinion you desperately want to believe is true.
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A good bet in economics: the past wasn’t as good as you remember, the present isn’t as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate.
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Dogecoin is now worth more than Ford.
Amazon Prime now has more members than all but seven countries have citizens.
What a time.
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If you're a long-term investor the odds of experiencing a crushing bear market and a recession are 100% yet so many act surprised and shocked when it happens.
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- Live below your means.
- Invest, diversified, with a 10+ year horizon.
- Expect and accept volatility.
That's 90% of finance.
90%.
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Just heard a great story.
A dad played a game with his son every week: here is a dime and a nickel. Pick one.
He took the nickel every time.
His brother told him he’s crazy because the dime is worth more.
“No, because if I pick the dime dad will stop playing this game.”
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Doug Adams on technology:
- anything around when you were born is normal and natural.
- anything invented between when you're age 15 and 35 is exciting because you can make a career out of it.
- anything invented after age 35 is against the natural order of things.
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Tesla: Pulled off an engineering/design miracle, stock now ~ flat over six years.
Domino's: New pizza sauce, stock up 6x in six years.
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My brother in law is a social worker working with neglected kids and just told me: "All behavior makes sense with enough information."
People do crazy things because it makes sense to them even if it doesn't make sense to us.
Applies to lots of things.
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A lot of financial debates are just people with different time horizons talking over each other.
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My book, The Psychology of Money, is now available:
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Psychology of Money just crossed two million copies sold worldwide.
Thanks for reading!
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I love this picture of NASA physicists in 1957.
I also don't get why they couldn't just write smaller.
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It's impossible to know your risk tolerance until you've lived through a big decline.
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For most investors: 99% of good investing is doing nothing, the other 1% is how you behave when the world is going crazy.
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John Bogle built a nonprofit business with $5 trillion under management. What would have been profit effectively went to retirees. He's the biggest undercover philanthropist of all time.
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"When you first study a field, it seems like you have to memorize a zillion things. You don't. What you need is to identify the 3-5 core principles that govern the field. The million things you thought you had to memorize are various combinations of the core principles." -J. Reed
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The most important communication skill is knowing when to shut up.
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The most valuable personal finance asset is not needing to impress anyone.
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“In every fat book there is a thin book trying to get out.”
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Interest rates are rising, which is bad for stocks.
But rates are rising because the economy is growing, which is good for stocks.
High growth could cause inflation, which is bad for stocks.
But inflation could boost earnings, which is good for stocks.
Repeat until crazy.
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Independence is the best financial goal.
Control your schedule, don't have to play anyone else's games.
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2020:
- 22 million jobs lost.
- Oil at negative $37 a barrel.
- Nasdaq up.
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The Psychology of Money
From an industry that talks too much about what to do, and not enough about what happens in your head when you try to do it.
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An interesting time when lots of popular stocks are already down 50%-80% but people are still waiting for the shoe to drop.
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Academics: Investors are rational.
Investors: ROUND NUMBERS YEAAAAHHH.
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"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it."
-- Bezos. A quote I love and hate in equal parts.
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Coming November 7th ...
A new book about the behaviors that never change over time.
What people have always done, and will always do.
Pre-order here:
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Airbnb went public eight weeks ago $68 and now trades at $217.
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Two fields everyone has to learn about even if you're not interested in them because they are interested in you and will impact your life in huge ways: health and money.
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"one container ship gets stuck" did not show up in anyone's 2021 global economic risks forecast.
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I suspect this will lead to a generation of super savers/paranoid of debt. More than 2008.
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Bad luck is easy to identify when you fail and good luck is easy to ignore when you succeed.
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"If you only wished to be happy, this could be easily accomplished; but we wish to be happier than other people, and this is always difficult, for we believe others to be happier than they are.” -Montesquieu
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