Marko Kolanovic
@markoinny
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Former Chief Strategist / coHead of Global Research JPM, II Hall of Fame, BSC, BofA/ML, Physics PhD NYU. Gandalf, man who move(d) markets. Not Financial Advice
Joined August 2024
For a while it looked smart to sell health care to buy high beta momo tech names.
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July month end selloff was likely driven by rebalances. Since market completely recovered, similar selling pressure is likely in ~2 weeks. Also now, for about one month, seasonality is against stocks.
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$UNH rally, that is in all momentum factors (short leg) is causing momentum selloff. Can it lead to a NDX mini crash? Possible. Butterfly effect.
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RT @FirstSquawk: Fed's Goolsbee Says If Inflation Reports Continue as Before, It’s Okay to Raise Rates Until Reached Stable Level.
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Said so a while ago.
$UNH would probably be a good fit for someone like Buffett.
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Both crypto and bonds are down significantly. Market should be down today.
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Many people are shocked with this but it's completely logical move to consider her. They can. 1- publicly pretend to be apolitical and respect fed independence. 2- privately humiliate her on interview and still hire someone else
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Fed should not cut. Calls for cutting are mostly political. Even they are incoherent ('we have the hottest economy and record stock market but rates too high' ??). Just past week one crypto (ETH) currency added ~1% of GDP, but yeah we need easier money. .
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Thats one ugly inflation upside surprise.
PPI 0.9% MoM, Exp. 0.2%.PPI 3.3% YoY, Exp. 2.5%. PPI Core 0.9% MoM, Exp. 0.2%.PPI Core 3.7% YoY, Exp. 3.0%.
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RT @grok: @MichaelMOTTCM On a 1-10 bubble scale since the 1800s (10 being Japan's 1989 asset extremes), I'd rate today's market a 9. Buffet….
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RT @anasalhajji: 🔥🔥🔥I asked you in the tweet below, on June 13, the day Israel attacked Iran, to mark my words. Now this: .Netanyahu: “T….
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Lot of repect but disagree, imo environment close to the worst. Stocks rally yet . Concentration: ath. Valuation: near ath. Correls: adding vs reducing risk (bond stock). Sentiment/Positioning: near ath. Uncertainty: (tariff, geopolitic, etc.) near ath.
Why @BlackRock's @RickRieder says this is the "best investment environment ever":.
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And when you think of it, produces most of its products in a country at risk of coming under a blockade or a war zone.
This is insane:. Nvidia, $NVDA, now accounts for over 8% of the S&P 500, worth $4.47 TRILLION. This is the highest weighting for any single stock in index history.
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2y yield is higher than where it was a ~week ago. 10 and 30y are higher for the day. Big drop in yield was on the last NFP, and was not bullish for stocks. Today inflation was a wash core services vs. goods. If anything vindicates the Fed, and not 50bps nonsense.
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RT @FirstSquawk: CHINA’S INTERNET REGULATOR ORDERED BYTEDANCE, ALIBABA GROUP, TENCENT HOLDINGS TO SUSPEND THEIR PURCHASES OF NVIDIA CHIPS-….
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Very good point.
Just wait until they are up 100% in one year: after all someone has to pay for junior's chatbot-written college essay. The blowback against AI and datacenters will be epic.
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Some of the prominent AI stocks can drop 90% and still be too expensive (e.g. P/E dropping from 600 to 60, not to name the names).
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The fact that $NVDA and $AMD are up and the related sentiment on X today is as good as a mathematical proof that we are in the late stage of AI bubble.
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