Nick Davies
@NJ_Davies
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Programme Director @Instituteforgov working on public services
London
Joined June 2009
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Pinned Tweet
NEW REPORT: By 2028, almost all public services will still be performing worse than pre-pandemic, which in most cases was already worse than in 2010 when the Conservatives came to power
Without a sustained change in approach, public services risk getting stuck in a doom loop
🧵
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My key Gray takeaway: even when senior people did raise concerns about events their main worry was negative coverage. Nobody - or at least nobody senior - seems to have questioned whether it was proper for scores of people to get repeatedly sloshed in No.10 during lockdown
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This is an utterly innapropriate response from a Department of Health spokesman to perfectly reasonable questions about why the government has awarded a PPE contract worth £108m to a tiny firm
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Fascinating new
@TheIFS
paper finds that the closure of 70% of police stations in London was not cost effective and led to higher crime levels, with particularly negative impacts on the poor
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NEW REPORT: By 2025, public services won’t have returned to pre-pandemic performance, which in most cases was already worse than in 2010 when the Conservatives came to power
It's been a lost decade for public services
There's no meaningful fat to cut 🧵
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Extremely bad case of West Wing syndrome here. A backbench MP with a *deputy* chief of staff 😬
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Recieved this from the head at my son's primary school as part of an appeal for funds from parents. Two reflections:
1) Schools in disadvantaged areas, with less ability to raise from parents, will struggle far more
2) Pissing off headteachers is a really risky political strategy
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We have a new report out today by
@Samfr
&
@racheljanetwolf
on the hospital productivity puzzle. We identify 3 key reasons:
1) longstanding underinvestment in capital (beds, scanners, buildings)
2) the loss of senior staff
3) chronic undermanagement
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As someone whose work is cited as the evidence for around 20% of this black hole, it would be fair to say that I’m extremely sceptical of its accuracy or value
Impressively thorough costings document from
@Jeremy_Hunt
to back up the £38bn hole in Labour's plans, and even more impressive to be able to base the whole thing on official Treasury costings.
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This is a cataclysmic failure of govt policy making
MoJ’s own prison population projections have shown for years that there would be insufficient prison capacity to deal with the impact of the police uplift programme
And the situation is due to get much worse
Ministers are to rent prison cells overseas to help tackled the overcrowding crisis in Britain’s jails.
Alex Chalk is expected to announce the plan on Wednesday as figures showed that there were just 258 places left in the adult male prison estate.
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It’s deeply irresponsible of HarperCollins and Dorries to publish a book using the word assassination to argue the PM was brought down by a shadowy conspiracy. Two MPs have been murdered in the last decade. This isn’t harmless fun
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Gold (strategic), silver (tactical), bronze (operational) command structures are common across govt.
Setting up a ‘gold command taskforce’ for A-level exams literally just means ‘putting someone in charge of fixing this mess’
Breaking :
UK Govt is to set up a “gold command” taskforce to oversee the ALevel exam appeals process.
More on Nolan 5Live now
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The main sources of ‘efficiencies’ in the 2010s were holding down public sector pay and cutting staff
Given there are major workforce shortages and strikes across public services already, I just don’t see how tightening things further is political viable
New chancellor
@Jeremy_Hunt
says ALL gov departments will be asked to make "efficiencies"
Asked if that means the Department of Health, he simply repeats 'all'
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It’s convenient for this govt minister to put the blame for a possible delay to June easing at the door of “a small number of idiots” not getting vaccines, but responsibility largely lies with the small number of govt ministers who refused to put India on the red list for weeks
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It’s amazing how different a chart can look if you take account of inflation and start a few years earlier…
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First back
@instituteforgov
after 6 months shared parental leave. Presumably we’ve left the EU in an orderly manner?
More seriously, if you’re a soon to be dad, take as much time off as you can. Raising children isn’t your partner’s responsibility! Plus, it’s really fun!
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Public services problems have been exacerbated by the Covid crisis but are not new. Rather, they are the product of austerity. Governments since 2010 may have been seeking efficiency over resilience but achieved neither
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This is a ridiculous and damaging way to make critical spending decisions
We’re potentially talking about tens of billions of pounds of cuts
Graham Brady confirms the fiscal event will go ahead on Hallowe'en. That makes Jeremy Hunt the most powerful man in Britain now. The new PM will have TWO DAYS to consider Hunt's decisions before the 31st.
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This comment from the PM is galling on a personal level and utterly incorrect when describing the country. People have worked much harder during the pandemic
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This is a lovely sight after an unexpectedly busy night
@AndertonDavies
rocked it, midwives were brilliant and baby boy is in rude health
Tweeting will be light over the coming weeks...
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Two things that can both be true:
1) Kate Bingham has done an excellent job and deserves praise
2) If the govt gives important jobs to friends and family without open competition then it’s likely to make suboptimal appointments
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In this analogy, Jacob Rees-Mogg set up a special phone line for his friends to pitch plumbing ideas, agreed with the first quotes offered, continued paying emergency rates months after experienced plumbers became available again, and then scolded his wife for questioning him
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Why have so many schools, hospitals etc built with RAAC not been replaced? A big reason is deep cuts to capital budgets. In decade before Covid, DfE cut spending by 20% on average vs 07/08. In MoJ spending was cut by more than half. Even DHSC, which was protected, saw cuts of 8%
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As Giles says in this thread, public services are in a terrible state right now. Getting back to square one (2010 performance levels) in most services would be a genuinely impressive achievement for the next govt. Realistically it's a 2 parliament project
Sincerely, in good faith, I'd strongly urge the Tories to drop their use of "don't let's go back to square one" in the upcoming contest. Surely there's nothing voters detest more than a false premise, and the notion that the last 14 years have generated progress is jarring 1/
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Either Steve Barclay genuinely believes that the key to improving hospital performance is cutting managerial posts further or he knows that this is complete nonsense but keeps pushing this rubbish anayway to generate headlines. I genuinely don't know what's worse
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Another day of revelations and still the only person to have done the decent thing and resigned is Allegra Stratton who didn't even attend the parties and was obviously embarrassed at the attempt to explain them away
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We've launched a new
@instituteforgov
report on the scale of government outsourcing.
I'm 100% certain that this will be the most exciting thing that happens in UK politics today...
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We might need to revisit the
@instituteforgov
’s assessment of whether outsourcing catering services is beneficial. We had not considered that ‘armed revolt’ might be a relevant quality indicator
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NEW:
@instituteforgov
&
@CIPFA
analysis of performance of 9 public services.
We project that money pledged by govt will not be enough to improve services, and may not even be enough to maintain 2018/19 standards (well below 2009/10 standards)
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The govt's recklessness at the mini-budget has put it in an invidious position. But any attempt to balance the books on the back of public services will have devastating consequences
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100% right from
@stephenkb
on lack of seriousness in UK politics. Gov spending plans from 25/26 onwards are v tight and it’s unlikely that next gov will be able to stick to them, given woeful state of public services. But neither main party will be honest
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Today is exactly three years since I joined
@instituteforgov
!
In order to annoy
@GavinFreeguard
I've decided to celebrate by making the worst chart possible
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Despite rumours to the contrary, I can confirm that my closest adviser is still fully committed to my political project
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Targets are used extensively across public services. But do they improve performance? How do they change behaviour of staff? When should govt apply targets? How can it design them well?
A new
@instituteforgov
report answers these questions and more
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It's Alex Chalk's first week as Justice Secretary
Now that he has responsibility for the criminal justice system I thought it would be helpful to provide a 12 chart summary of the state of criminal courts and prisons 🧵
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Just a complete failure of leadership from the PM and senior officials
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The prison population at the end of July was almost 4,000 lower (4.5%!) than MoJ projected it would be
You might think fewer people in prison is A Good Thing, but it's only happening because the rest of the criminal justice system is so gummed up + few cases are being prosecuted
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Astonishing to hear the PM talking about ‘leadership’ and ‘taking responsibility’ while using this statement to minimise his role in the repeated parties that took place in his house
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Devastating new
@instituteforgov
report on the govt’s schools omnishambles during the pandemic.
As with so many Covid mistakes, problems principally stemmed from the PM’s unwillingness to discuss anything but the best case scenario, hobbling the response
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I have grudging respect for BT who’ve designed a WiFi troubleshooting app that only works when connected to the internet and therefore finds WiFi is working perfectly every time you use it
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Good appointment. I was concerned about how independent this review would actually be but Baroness Casey can be guaranteed to speak her mind
Baroness Casey of Blackstock will lead an independent review into the Metropolitan Police's culture and standards in the wake of the murder of Sarah Everard, the force has announced
For more on this and other news visit
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All the evidence suggests that the NHS is actually drastically *under-managed* compared to other countries and the private sector
Hundreds of NHS bureaucrats are earning more than £100,000 a year as frontline staff including nurses prepare to strike over their low pay, figures show
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Rishi Sunak in January: "NHS waiting lists will fall and people will get the care they need more quickly"
Jeremy Hunt in the autumn statement: "NHS’s performance is closely tied to that of the adult social care system"
Government today:
Exclusive: ‘Shameful’ £500m cut to workforce and reform budgets
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Great advice from
@jillongovt
on how
@HMTAllegra
can reset govt comms:
1. Stop anonymous No.10 briefings
2. End exaggerated 'world-beating' claims
3. Be honest and admit shortcoming
4. Answer questions, don't evade
5. Explain, explain, explain
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Daisy has been returned! Two very relieved owners. Thief still at large but most important thing is dog is home. Thanks to everyone who RT’d
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When you’re very serious about digging for foam bricks but aren’t sure if it’s the job for you
@youngvulgarian
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This is so counterproductive. Cuts to management, admin and support staff are a key reason why the huge increase in clinical staff over recent years has not resulted in substantially more hospital activity
BREAKING
Northern Care Alliance launches redundancy scheme to cut corporate servs by 14%. Docs seen by HSJ suggest >100 roles to go
Teams like Quality Improvement, Infection risk, Patient experience, Chaplaincy & Safe Staffing are all in scope
🧵1/
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I'm a big fan of the RAG tie being worn at the budget. Very much like our 2022 RAG chart for public services, just with more green...
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Boris Johnson has damaged the office of the prime minister and the credibility of government
New comment from
@instituteforgov
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Today
@instituteforgov
&
@CIPFA
's Performance Tracker found that public services are in a fragile state with no fat to trim. Rushing cuts will only make things worse
NEW REPORT: By 2025, public services won’t have returned to pre-pandemic performance, which in most cases was already worse than in 2010 when the Conservatives came to power
It's been a lost decade for public services
There's no meaningful fat to cut 🧵
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“This is obvs good news about spread of the virus. But hard for my target”
This perfectly encapsulates a key problem with badly designed targets. People end up caring more about the proxy for success rather than the thing that actually matters
What you see here is the then Health Secretary, in the middle of a global pandemic, asking a newspaper editor who happens to be his former boss for a favourable front page to help him meet an arbitrary target, and the newspaper editor responding: “Yes of course.” Lost for words.
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Today the Chancellor will say govt’s prudent decisions have allowed it to cut taxes. But the only reason he has fiscal headroom is because spending plans from 25/26 are implausibly tight. Most services on track to be performing worse in 27/28 than 19/20 and that’s not sustainable
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I love Twitter but I'm delighted the BBC Political Editor is taking this approach
@CobblerSeanTB
@sima_kotecha
@itvnews
It’s not weird. My focus is on television, radio & the BBC News website and app. I’m less fussed about Twitter, to be honest.
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Many thanks to
@melissaittoo
for screenshotting this hugely flattering pic of me and the cat at this morning’s event
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Yes frontline staff are wasted on admin. In some cases this is about unnecessary paperwork. But bigger problem is politicians cutting ‘public service bureaucrats to invest in frontline’. We’re not getting most out of doctors/nurses because we’ve cut their management support
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Just caught up with the transcript from
@HSJnews
’s interview with Steve Barclay. They repeatedly put to him the point from
@Samfr
&
@racheljanetwolf
’s recent report that the NHS is ‘catastrophically undermanaged’. Notably he wouldn’t give a clear answer
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Nadine Dorries is right. The NHS (along with other public services) was not well prepared for covid
@instituteforgov
found services were weakened after a decade of austerity: quality declined, staff became stretched, buildings weren't maintained and vital equipment went unbought
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There aren't many positive things to say about the performance of govt right now but today
@instituteforgov
is publishing a report on something that actually went well: the insourcing of probation services
Short 🧵on the key findings:
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The ultimate blame for this lies with Johnson for his inability/unwillingness to act before he's forced to. It might have been a different story if we had a more competent Education Secretary but we don't and Johnson is to blame for that decision too
You couldn't blame some ministers for a bit of ‘I told you so’ today. I hear when senior Cabinet members met last week, Matt Hancock and Michael Gove argued to follow SAGE advice and close schools until February. Gavin Williamson (+ others) persuaded the PM not to.
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@ScotFinlayson
@instituteforgov
@Samfr
@racheljanetwolf
You would definitely get that impression from many politicians and much of the media but they've got the situation exactly backwards
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This is so classy and effective. No idea how the govt wins a political fight against someone this high profile, popular, credible, thoughtful, polite and relentless. This is going to keep happening in the run up to every school holiday until the govt folds...
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There aren't just isolated problems in individual services but interconnected structural failures – particularly in health and care, and criminal justice systems. In many cases, there are too few staff, with excessive workloads, working on outdated equipment in rundown buildings
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Patients are waiting half a day in A&E and a year or more for elective treatments. Social care providers are going out of business. Few crimes result in charges, criminal courts are gummed up, and pupils have lost months of learning, with little prospect of catching up
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Governing in a crisis is hard but I'm surprised we're still waiting for a comprehensive package of measures for charities.
Deploy retired/ex NHS staff is great but thousands of charity staff providing critical care services will be furloughed without immediate action
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Public services very fragile
Existing spending review settlement is not enough to meet additional demand/clear backlogs
Making cuts on top would mean accepting that performance will get worse, when for most services it’s already much worse than pre-pandemic, never mind 2010
Exc: Whitehall to be told to find efficiency savings as well as refusing to reopen spending review
Chris Philp to write to Secretaries of State within hours
"What efficiency savings are there given levels of inflation??! Amazing bulls***" said a Whitehall source
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My
@instituteforgov
comment on why we should disregard headlines about the govt meet its testing target.
The target has distorted govt behaviour and meeting it has been about politics rather than the role of tests in a workable exit strategy
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On Monday
@instituteforgov
and
@CIPFA
will publish Performance Tracker 2022, our analysis of 9 key public services
If you can read that and identify easy ‘efficiencies’ then you’re a more creative person than me
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Outside parliament they appear to be making some edits to the Brexit bus
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Longstanding staff shortages across many public services have been exacerbated by covid-related absences, which are still v. high
The situation is getting worse with below inflation pay offers leading to strikes
And that's before the new chancellor announces further cuts...
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Here we go again. Covering shortfalls in day-to-day spending by raiding capital budgets. Govt has been doing this for years with same result: NHS staff unable to do their jobs properly because they work in crumbling buildings, on outdated IT, & without access to latest equipment
Treasury has refused to budge on NHS Eng's plea for ££ bailout to mitigate strike impact.
Means £600m will have to be 'reprioritised' from other health budgets - inc (we're told) capital, tech, & even recently announced workforce plan
from
@HMAnderson39
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This is the 7th edition of Performance Tracker and unfortunately our findings have never been so grim
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Cummings getting the boot now is yet another example of the government bowing to the inevitable long (in this case VERY long) after the point when it would have received any credit for doing so. Something a new chief of staff needs to get on top of ASAP
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Speaking off the record, a close friend of Nick Davies said that an early September reshuffle would be a great way to annoy everyone trying to plan fringe events at Labour’s conference
🌹On Labour reshuffle stuff, understand that pre-summer *or* early September are both still in play.
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The Chancellor said he would announce a 'fully costed' plan on 31 October. Hopefully that just means setting out broad spending plans, because there's just no way that you can responsibly plan detailed cuts to public services in two weeks
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It's now Monday, 4 days after the new NHS pay offers were announced, and I genuinely can't believe there's still no clarity over where the funding will come from
Either the govt knows, but won't say. Or it agreed a multi-£bn deal without knowing how to pay for it. Neither good!
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Jeremy Hunt today: £800m to boost public service productivity
The govt quietly last week: NHS capital budgets have been cut by £900m to cover shortfalls in day-to-day spending
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There’s a lot to like in this Hunt interview. He’s right about problems: frontline staff are wasted on admin, govts have raided IT budgets to cover funding shortfalls and public services are not as productive as they could be. Buts he’s only half right on solutions… 🧵
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Public service backlogs can’t generally be solved with one-off funding injections. In most cases, there simply aren’t enough staff
Additional judges, doctors, nurses and social workers can’t be magicked out of nowhere
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Fascinating article by
@mrianleslie
on the growing rearguard action by advertising traditionalists against digital
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My neighbour’s dog Daisy was stolen outside Dvine wine bar in Clapham. If you see this woman and dog please call 07775676142
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The amount of absolute nonsense written about this target is incredible.
It has been heavily gamed and tells us nothing about how well the govt is managing the crisis or when they'll be able to lift the lockdown.
Mission accomplished on the politics but what about the virus?!
Government Smashes 100,000 Testing Target with 122,347 Tests Over Thursday
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It’s not every day that a charity can rightfully claim to have had a £1.67bn impact. Well done
@CPAGUK
.
@BBCNews
piece on disability benefit payments following our legal victory- our CEO
@alisongcpag
quoted: “It should not have taken legal action to get vulnerable people the money they were entitled to from the outset to avoid hardship."
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Finally had a chance to read Human Learning Systems: Public Service for the Real World. It's a great piece of work - well structured, clear and practical. Definitely the best articulated alternative to NPM I've read.
A few personal (and friendly!) reflections/challenges...
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What?! This thread is astonishing and gets worse the further down you read
EXC: The chair of the UK's vaccine task force showed “official sensitive” government documents to a $200-a-head event for elite US venture capitalists last week
Kate Bingham, a Boris Johnson appointee, showed guests a list of products which the government is set to invest in 1/
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This is my best "try to look intelligent while talking to the world leading academic" look
What are the challenges facing government outsourcing in the UK – and what lessons can the UK learn from other countries? Watch as Professor Gary Sturgess, former New South Wales Cabinet Secretary, shares his insight on government outsourcing in Australia
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Chancellor is absolutely right to talk about how digital transformation can boost NHS productivity. But it's notable that last week govt announced almost £1bn had been raided from NHS capital budgets (including funding earmarked for IT) to cover shortfalls in day-to-day spending
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Fantastic comment by
@jillongovt
@instituteforgov
arguing that Johnson's quick response to the European Super League just highlights how slow he's been to address more important issues like Covid, Northern Ireland, net zero and social care
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If govt advisers now make public statements presumably the lobby can finally do away with the ridiculous custom of referring to ‘senior number 10 sources’ and start naming the advisers who are giving quotes
@jillongovt
made the case for this last year:
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For more details on why it's ridiculous to claim hospitals have too many managers, see this recent
@instituteforgov
report
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UK has consistently invested less than other countries for years but cutting £24bn from capital budgets in 2010s hit service productivity hard
Staff cant do their jobs well in crumbling buildings, on old computers running out-of-date software, without access to latest equipment
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Public services that have for years been creaking are now crumbling, literally in some cases
Whether it's record waiting lists and times, ongoing industrial action, council 'bankruptcies', or overflowing prisons, services across the country are in a woefull state
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If only someone had written a report explaining the causes of this 'productivity puzzle'
Hang on,
@Samfr
&
@racheljanetwolf
did!
Can't wait to see what this report looks like as a McKinsey branded slide deck
NHS England has reportedly drafted in McKinsey as it struggles to increase the number of patients treated despite record standing and funding
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Gov has lost control of situation in schools. Unforgivable that scared parents/teachers have been left with so much uncertainty due to complete absence of political leadership.
@instituteforgov
called for Williamson to go in Aug. It’s gotten worse since
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There are three ways to enjoy the pleasures of Carlton Gardens.
1) Buy 3 Carlton Gardens for £95m
2) Be the foreign secretary
3) Apply to be a senior economist or intern
@instituteforgov
-
I strongly recommend option 3
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I’m quoted in this
@PaulNuki
@Telegraph
article on the reasons for the poor response to coronavirus.
I don’t have much sympathy for the argument that ministers aren’t responsible for PHE and that everything would be better if ministers had more control
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NHS England in brief: We have serious workforce problems and staff are leaving because of pay but unless govt gives us more money so we can afford suitable wages we can't do much about backlogs and other problems
Pretty bleak... NHS England's evidence to the pay review body for 2023-24
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I'm one of the authors of a new
@instituteforgov
report on outsourcing.
We've undertaken a detailed review of the evidence to assess what's worked and what needs reform.
Tl;dr - Govt has oversold benefits but blanket insourcing would be a mistake
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Wow this really blew up. Check out my SoundCloud
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Great piece by
@adambecket
on how scary it is to ride a bike
I’m a pretty confident cyclist and still ride my bike to work, but I’ve completely stopped cycling recreationally because it’s miserable getting repeatedly close passed on crap roads
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