Institute for Fiscal Studies
@TheIFS
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Britain’s leading independent economic research institute
London, UK
Joined November 2010
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Pinned Tweet
NEW: What is public investment and how do we measure it?
What do current government & Labour plans imply for investment spending, and how do we compare internationally?
Read
@BenZaranko
's Election 2024 explainer, funded by
@finan_fairness
@NuffieldFound
:
1
8
15
“What was completely missing was anything for people on Universal Credit or the state pension, which is only going up by 3.1% this month when inflation will be around 8%.”
“A big cut in living standards for those on the very lowest incomes.”
@PJTheEconomist
on
#PoliticsLive
26
550
1K
NEW: Sure Start, England’s first large programme to provide holistic support to families with children under five, greatly improved disadvantaged children’s GCSE results.
Read
@nridpathecon
@Sarah_Cattan
@carneiro_econ
’s report, funded by
@NuffieldFound
:
22
559
880
NEW: At their peak, Sure Start centres prevented 13,000 hospitalisations a year among 11- to 15-year-olds – leading to savings that offset around a third of its cost.
Read our new briefing, funded by
@NuffieldFound
here. >
Thread [1/4]
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845
NEW: Removing tax exemptions from private schools would likely raise £1.3–1.5 billion per year, as the fall in private school demand and movement of pupils into the state sector is likely to be small.
Read
@lukesibieta
’s report, funded by
@NuffieldFound
:
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266
601
Real wages are expected to remain stagnant for 20 years.
In 2026, wages are forecast to be £11.70 lower than if the pre-2008 trend in wage growth had continued.
#Budget2021
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NEW: Average inflation reached 9% in the year to April, but the poorest households faced inflation rates of 10.9%.
This is 3 percentage points higher than inflation rates for the richest decile.
[THREAD: 1/4]
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542
NEW: Scottish Government funding per person is over 30% higher than in England, almost entirely due to its UK government funding. This gap has grown over the last 10 years.
Read more in our first Scottish election briefing, funded by
@Scotpolicyfund
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522
The 2p cut to National Insurance means £449 less tax paid by an average full-time employee, but this is almost entirely offset by frozen thresholds and other changes since 2021.
For others, these freezes will more than cancel out the 2p cut.
#AutumnStatement
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515
Over the next 5 years real household disposable income is expected to grow by 0.8% per year, well below the historical average.
But growth had been weak in the decade before COVID, meaning average incomes are now expected to be 28% (£9,000 per capita) below the pre-2008 trend.
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498
Kwarteng's "£45bn package of tax cuts has now become a £43bn package - a rounding error in the context of the public finances."
"He still has a lot of work to do if he is to display a credible commitment to fiscal sustainability."
Our full statement>
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NEW: In the absence of official scrutiny from
@OBR_UK
alongside Friday's announcement, we've provided our own
#IFSGreenBudget
fiscal forecasts with
@citibank
.
We find that planned tax cuts with stalling economic growth would leave debt on an unsustainable path.
THREAD: 1/13
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The Liberal Democrats’ plans seem to involve lower levels of borrowing than implied by either the Labour or Conservative manifestos.
They would appear to be the only party which would put debt on a decisive downward path, says Carl Emmerson at our
#GE2019
manifesto analysis.
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Schools serving disadvantaged children have seen larger funding cuts.
The most deprived fifth of secondary schools saw spending per pupil fall by 12% in real terms between 2010 and 2021, compared with 5% for the least deprived fifth.
Read the report
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Between 2010 and 2019, total UK spending on education fell by £10bn (8%) in real terms.
This includes a 9% real-terms fall in school spending per pupil and a 14% fall in spending per student in colleges.
These cuts are without precedent in post-war UK history.
[THREAD: 1/7]
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NEW: Graduates are in for a rollercoaster ride on student loan interest rates in the coming years.
Read our new briefing on what today's
@ONS
RPI figures mean for student loans, funded by
@NuffieldFound
>
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The vast majority of income tax payers will now be paying more tax as a result of the measures since 2021-22.
Cutting the additional rate, however, means those with incomes over £155,000 (just 1.4% of adults) will now pay less tax overall.
#MiniBudget
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NEW: Inequalities by family background emerge early and persist as children progress through the education system.
@ckfarquharson
,
@Sandra_McNally
& Imran Tahir’s findings from our IFS Deaton Review chapter on education inequalities, funded by
@NuffieldFound
, in a thread:
[1/12]
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Today’s measures mean that the richest tenth of households, who were set to lose around £3,500 a year (3%) on average by 2025-26 under Johnson and Sunak’s plans, will now gain around £700 a year (1%) on average.
#minibudget
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283
"As a blueprint for five years in government the lack of significant policy action is remarkable."
@PJTheEconomist
responds to the
#ConservativeManifesto
.
More from IFS researchers to follow!
#GE2019
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📊
#IFSSatStat
: The new National Funding Formula has boosted funding for the most deprived fifth of schools the least (by less than 1%) since 2017.
This follows bigger cuts for schools in deprived areas during the 2010s, esp. outside London, where educational outcomes are worst.
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Pre-referendum plans were for a £10bn surplus next year. But now we’re forecast to have a £30bn deficit
#Budget2018
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Changes to free school meal entitlement as a result of the introduction of universal credit will mean that, overall, around an extra 50,000 children will be entitled to free school meals
@ESRC
@ChildrensComm
22
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"Let's be clear – prices aren't going down. They're just expected to go up more slowly."
"Over this two-year period, households can expect to be substantially less well-off than they were on average at the beginning of it."
@PJTheEconomist
on the
#Budget2023
on
#PoliticsLive
.
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"You cannot fairly assign grades to a cohort of students who have not done the exams. Many were bound to be left angry and upset. They did not, however, have to be left baffled."
#ALevels
"didn’t need to be this much of a mess", writes
@PJTheEconomist
.
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IFS is launching a major new study of
#inequality
today, funded by
@NuffieldFound
and chaired by Nobel Laureate Prof Sir Angus Deaton.
Read about it here:
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Mothers’ work patterns have diverged from fathers’ in
#lockdown
.
1⃣ They're more likely to have lost their job, or to have been furloughed
2⃣ Their working hours have fallen more, proportionally
3⃣ Their work time is interrupted more often by childcare
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NEW: Doctors and experienced teachers have faced unprecedented pay cuts since 2007.
The gap between higher- and lower-paid public sector workers has fallen by more than a third since 2007.
Read
@JCribbEcon
and
@LaurenceOBrien_
's Election 2024 report:
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The prime minister’s proposed
#tax
cuts would cost billions, with most of the giveaway going to those on high incomes.
New analysis by IFS researchers, funded by
@NuffieldFound
:
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Today's measures undo much of the big, progressive tax rises introduced by Johnson and Sunak.
The result is that the richest 10% of households gain the most – now only those earning over £155,000 a year will pay less tax overall.
@xiaoweixu_
#minibudget
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The vast majority of income tax payers will now be paying more tax as a result of the measures since 2021-22.
However, cutting the additional rate means those with incomes over £155k will now pay less tax overall.
@TomWatersEcon
#MiniBudget
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#IFSSatStat
Labour pledges to open a Sure Start centre in every community.
We find that Sure Start has big benefits for health. An extra centre per 1000 children aged 0-4 prevents around 5,500 hospitalisations of 11-year-olds a year.
Read more:
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NEW: Access to Sure Start greatly improved disadvantaged children’s GCSE results, by as much as three GCSE grades.
THREAD on
@nridpathecon
,
@Sarah_Cattan
and
@carneiro_econ
’s new report, funded by
@NuffieldFound
, on Sure Start’s impact on educational outcomes: [1/10]
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New IFS report finds
#SureStart
significantly reduced hospitalisations in children in poorer areas.
Gabriella Conti (UCL & IFS) says “Access to Sure Start can help close around half the gap in hospitalisations between rich & poor areas”
@NuffieldFound
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A parent with a 1 year-old and a 2-year old in England, paying an hourly rate for 40 hours a week for childcare, could see their disposable income fall by £14.5k if their pre-tax pay crosses £100k.
A parent in this situation on £130k would be worse off than one earning £99.9k.
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'For the chancellor to have felt it appropriate to draw attention to the fact that per pupil spending in schools will have returned to 2010 levels by 2024 is perhaps a statement of a remarkable lack of priority afforded to the education system since 2010.'
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UPDATE: Our updated analysis finds that the earnings hit for lower-earning student loan borrowers under the new student loans system presented last week is set to be even higher than we previously said.
Here we explain why: [1/8]
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NEW: School spending per pupil in 2024 will be 3% below 2010 levels in real terms, once you account for unexpectedly high cost pressures facing schools.
Read
@lukesibieta
’s briefing on school spending and the coming cost crunch, funded by
@NuffieldFound
>
7
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NEW: For every £1 given to households through the high-profile cuts to taxes, £2 is being taken away in the stealthy freezes to tax and benefit thresholds.
Read
@TomWatersEcon
and Tom Wernham’s
@NuffieldFound
-funded
#IFSGreenBudget
chapter>
THREAD: [1/8]
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Temporary COVID-19 cash is being used to fund permanent new spending on free bus travel, school meals, grants to councils, mental health, and maybe some of the NHS pay rises.
Paying for these from core funding in future means a bigger squeeze elsewhere.
19
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Sure Start had long-term benefits for children’s health, lasting almost a decade after children have ‘aged out’ of eligibility.
Benefits for child health likely come from stronger immune systems, safer home environments and improved emotional & behavioural development. [3/4]
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'No money to deal with post pandemic priorities. No policies to deal with the inequalities that have opened up over the last year between rich & poor, old & young, more and less well educated. This is a big hole in the chancellor’s and the government’s policies.'
@PJTheEconomist
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“Mr Kwarteng is not just gambling on a new strategy, he is betting the house.”–
@PJTheEconomist
Read our IFS response to today’s
#miniBudget
here with detail on the impact on public finances, the distributional impact of tax cuts, public spending & more>
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The effects of inflation are not felt evenly across households.
The poorest households spend much more as a proportion of their budget on household energy. This means the inflation rate they face could exceed 10%.
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#SureStart
had the biggest health impact in the poorest neighbourhoods.
Greater access to Sure Start can help close around half the gap in hospitalisations between rich and poor areas.
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These results highlight the importance of integrating a range of services during the early years to improve child health in both the immediate and longer term.
Read the full briefing note here [4/4] >
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NEW: How much revenue would be raised from removing tax exemptions from UK private schools?
Our new report by
@lukesibieta
, funded by
@NuffieldFound
, calculates the net gain to the public finances from
@UKLabour
’s proposed policy:
[THREAD: 1/11]
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@PJTheEconomist
“How did Mr Hunt afford tax cuts when real economic forecasts got no better? He banked additional revenue from higher inflation, and pencilled in harsher cuts to public spending.”
3
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NEW: Pay freeze will mean 8% drop in salaries of experienced teachers since 2007 and 4-5% for less experienced teachers.
Read our full briefing written by
@lukesibieta
and Jonathan Cribb, funded by
@NuffieldFound
>
11
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The expansion of free childcare entitlements is to exacerbate one of the largest distortions you are likely to see in a tax and benefit system, meaning some parents could be worse off overall even after a pay rise of tens of thousands of pounds.
#Budget2023
THREAD:
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Despite the reductions to tax announced in today’s
#AutumnStatement
, total tax revenue as a share of GDP remains on track to reach its highest level since the 1940s.
3
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137
Workers born in the 1980s with median earnings now don’t earn any more than those born in the 1960s did at their age.
We still don’t have the policy tools to boost the earnings of any other than the low-paid.
[7/8]
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NEW: Wealth has grown rapidly compared to income, disadvantaging younger generations and threatening social mobility.
Our key findings from our IFS Deaton Review chapter on trends in income and wealth inequalities, funded by
@NuffieldFound
, in a thread [1/12]:
1
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131
High electricity prices mean that many renewable generators are now actually paying money *back* to suppliers.
This means that in 3 months from October, the net effect of green and social levies on bills is likely to be just £11 for a typical household. [6/7]
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NEW: The gap between private and state school spending per pupil in England has more than doubled in the past decade.
@lukesibieta
on the growing gap between private and state school spending per pupil, funded by
@NuffieldFound
.
5
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130
Deprived schools have seen larger cuts over the last decade.
The most deprived fifth of secondary schools saw a 14% real-terms fall in spending per pupil between 2009 and 2019, compared with a 9% drop for the least deprived schools.
[3/7]
1
115
128
Since 2015, personal tax and benefit reforms have hit the poorest the hardest. Yesterday’s
#Budget2018
did not change this much
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The highest-earning graduates would benefit most from Labour’s policy of scrapping fees and bringing back maintenance grants. Loan repayments for the top third would fall by around £50k.
Actual loan repayments for low-earning graduates would be almost completely unaffected.
20
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121
The government plans to announce £20bn extra funding for the
#NHS
today. This means higher borrowing or higher taxes - as
@PJTheEconomist
tells the BBC, there is no Brexit dividend
4
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122
The IFS turns fifty today.
We’d like to thank our staff and supporters over the years.
Special thanks to the
@ESRC
and our narrators
@MyStephanomics
and
@EvanHD
.
Find out more and celebrate with us:
#IFSat50
9
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NEW: It may be harder now than at any point in over half a century to move up the distribution if you are born in a position of disadvantage.
THREAD on our IFS Deaton Review of Inequalities commentary on social mobility in the UK, funded
@NuffieldFound
: [1/9]
6
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The SNP’s manifesto contains significant pledges that offer big gains to a number of targeted groups in Scotland - but would involve difficult trade-offs in a tight budgetary environment.
Read the full response from IFS researchers:
8
83
121
Housing benefits have been frozen since April 2020, while rents have sky-rocketed. What does this mean for low-income households in Britain?
THREAD on our new
@JRF_uk
-funded report on housing quality and affordability by
@TomWatersEcon
and Tom Wernham: 1/9
12
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120
We're aiming to answer fundamental questions about the nature of
#inequality
in the 21st century, the forces shaping it, and what can and should be done about it.
In May, we'll launch a 5-year review led by Sir Angus Deaton and funded by
@NuffieldFound
:
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"It's ludicrous that we should be thinking about whether we will or won't cut taxes [...] off the back of some very uncertain forecasts about what might or might not be happening five years hence."
📺
@PJTheEconomist
on the gaming of fiscal rules:
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NEW: In 2019–20, 1.5 million children of lone parents were in relative income poverty.
This is 49% of children in lone parent families, and is almost double the rate for two-parent families in relative poverty.
Read our observation funded by
@jrf_uk
>
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Average house prices in England have risen 173% since 1997 after adjusting for inflation. But young adults’ real incomes have only risen by 19%.
In that time, homeownership amongst 25- to 34-year-olds has fallen from 55% to 35%.
Read more:
13
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112
More than one in five girls aged 16 were in contact with NHS mental health services (including learning disabilities and autism services) in 2021-22. This is double the rate of the rate just four years earlier.
[6/7]
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Today’s statement from
@KwasiKwarteng
represents the biggest tax cut of any budget since 1972.
“It’s half a century since we’ve seen tax cuts announced on this scale.” –
@PJTheEconomist
#MiniBudget
14
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NEW: Schools serving disadvantaged children have faced the biggest funding cuts.
Our annual education spending report, funded by
@NuffieldFound
and with a special focus on geographical differences in spending, launches today.
Read the report ⬇️
4
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📊 We have built a new free online tool that allows you to examine how much funding each area in England received for key public services and how that compares to estimated spending needs.
4
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Even after today’s
#AutumnStatement
, tax is still set to rise by more in this parliament than any other in recent history.
6
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97
@NuffieldFound
School spending per pupil is highest in Scotland (at £6,600) and lowest in Northern Ireland (£5,500).
NI has also seen the steepest cuts (11% in real terms since 2011–12), closely followed by England.
9
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The gap between private and state school spending per pupil in England has more than doubled in the past decade.
@lukesibieta
on the growing gap between private school and state school spending>
7
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Going to university is a very good investment for most students – but 1 in 5 would be better off financially if they hadn’t done a degree.
While
#highereducation
can have many personal and social benefits, we explore its impact on lifetime earnings.
15
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We are delighted to announce that
@ImranRasul3
is the new Director of the Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy (CPP) at
@TheIFS
, after
@R_Blundell_UCL
steps down from 31 years in the role.
Read more about the appointment ⬇️
2
19
99
NEW: Interest rate hikes could see 1.4 million people lose 20% of their disposable income to rising mortgage payments, with mortgage holders in their 30s and in London hit hardest.
THREAD on our briefing on what rising interest rates mean for households with mortgages [1/8]:
7
50
98
IFS Director
@PJTheEconomist
on
#PoliticsLive
quotes the
@OBR_UK
’s report which calls this year the "worst year for living standards since records began in 1956-57."
#SpringStatement
2
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📰 “I challenge any reasonable person to defend the system as it stands today and to claim that what we have is anything other than arbitrary, complex, inequitable and damaging to the economy.”
@PJTheEconomist
in
@Telegraph
on the current tax system
7
26
97
NEW: If the Chancellor decides to cut taxes next week, he needs to tell us where the spending cuts will fall.
Our new report examines the state of the public finances and provides the context for next week’s Spring Budget:
[THREAD: 1/13]
8
65
96
Are the top 1% in the UK paying their taxes? Who are non-doms? Should we introduce a wealth tax?
@HelenMiller_IFS
and
@DanNeidle
join
@PJTheEconomist
take a deep-dive into taxing the rich in our latest podcast episode.
🎧 Listen here:
5
21
94
NEW: Average capital spending on schools has fallen by around a quarter in real-terms since the mid-2000s, and is 50% below its 2010 peak.
Read our new comment on the decline in spending on school building from
@lukesibieta
⬇️
3
91
93
NEW: The next government will face some of the toughest choices in generations.
Our new report, funded by
@NuffieldFound
and
@finan_fairness
, identifies the key economic and fiscal choices ahead of the upcoming General Election:
[THREAD: 1/14]
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"What is the question to which abolishing inheritance tax is any sort of plausible answer?"
📰
@PJTheEconomist
writes in
@thetimes
on why abolishing inheritance tax would leave the country a "terrible legacy":
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Low earners are seven times as likely as high earners to have worked in a sector that is now shut down in response to the
#coronavirus
pandemic.
4
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91
The additional £2.3 billion in school funding announced in today’s Autumn Statement will take spending per pupil back to at least 2010 levels in real-terms, and will fully cover the expected increases in school costs up to 2024.
15
40
82
NEW: £17 billion is gifted or loaned informally each year in Britain, almost all from parents to their adult children.
Who gets these wealth transfers and how do they affect inequalities?
THREAD [1/12] on
@beeboileau
and
@David_Sturrock
’s new report:
8
40
90
NEW: Spending on public services and benefits is 20% higher in Scotland than England – mostly due to more for devolved services. This gap is larger than 10 years ago, but similar to 20 years ago.
Read our latest election briefing funded by
@Scotpolicyfund
8
52
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IFS
#Budget2017
analysis. This is not the end of “austerity”. There are still nearly £12 billion of welfare cuts to work through the system, while day-to-day public service spending is still due to be 3.6% lower in 2022–23 than it is today.
7
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When and how should the
#coronavirus
lockdown end?
"We shouldn’t even be talking yet about what is the right choice", writes
@PJTheEconomist
.
"We need some framework for decision-making, not a set of opinions about the right decision."
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Having wealthy parents is particularly important for getting to the top of the wealth distribution.
Children of the wealthiest fifth of parents are almost three times as likely to be in the wealthiest fifth in their generation as those with average parental wealth.
[2/6]
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51
91
85% of the
#PlatinumJubilee
generation are homeowners, meaning that most have benefitted from the house price boom that occurred during their working lives.
1 in 7 of them own a second home.
[5/8]
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87
Mental health has deteriorated across the population as result of
#COVID19
.
The biggest impacts have been on women and the young – groups that already had relatively low levels of mental health and worse trends pre-pandemic. This has exacerbated pre-existing inequalities.
5
112
87
Politicians need to "be honest about the fact that at best taxes aren't going to come back down to where they've been, most likely they're going to rise."
@PJTheEconomist
on the reforms we need to make to our tax system. Read more here:
10
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89