The BBC's Projected National Share in GB translates into the following seat tally: ➡️REF: 376 (+371) 🌹LAB: 113 (-299) 🔸LD: 71 (-1) 🌳CON: 12 (-109) 🟢Green: 5 (+1) Reform Majority of 100.

No idea how this post got 1m views, but I'll take it.

Blameless, Not

I found an even more extreme example of a Cuomo landslide in one of the precincts in Queens. Any ideas why the result here is so overwhelming?

Ok time for a geographic and demographic *deep* dive mega thread on the NYC mayor’s race. Here I’ll be using the New York Times’ excellent categorical precinct mapping tool (link at bottom). Let’s nerd out. 🧵

1) Mamdani won a majority of votes cast, so Sliwa was not the spoiler candidate people thought he was 2) I suspect Trump endorsing Cuomo emboldened people to get out and vote, but not in the way that he'd have liked

🧐

It's only one poll, but it seems that voters are flocking to parties with a clear position, led by effective social media communicators. Last week in Caerphilly, we saw voters flock to Plaid and Reform. Could we be seeing the same phenomenon in England where instead of Plaid

First poll with Greens in second place nationally.

In line with our prediction on Tuesday, Geert Wilders’ PVV has fallen from 37 seats to around 26 in the Dutch election. We also highlighted rising support for D66 and noted that Rob Jetten had an outside chance of becoming Prime Minister. ⬇️ https://t.co/YGmMroIcEB

Latest poll with @FindoutnowUK for @DailyMirror shows a third think Britain is likely to be in a war in the next five years and many voters are prepared to accept higher taxes to fund defence. 🪖 Full analysis ⬇️ https://t.co/gJwbPND2oB

Lots of people who didn't vote at the last GE are now voting Reform. This poll we did is from May this year. I imagine if we did a re-run, we would see the Greens picking up a few non-voters too.

Good point made here. For those unfamiliar with the d'Hondt system, what determines the number of seats the parties get is the ratio of the party votes, not the share of the vote. 1/2

Even though Plaid won the seat yesterday, under the D'Hondt system that comes into effect next year, the result produced yesterday would have resulted in a draw. Full seat allocation: Seat 1: PC 🟡 Seat 2: RFM ➡️ Seat 3: 🟡 Seat 4: ➡️ Seat 5: 🟡 Seat 6: ➡️

Under the new Welsh Senedd voting system that comes into effect next year, this result would produce an equal number of assembly members for PC and Reform. Distribution of seats 🟡 PC: 3 ➡️ RFM: 3 🌹LAB: 0

Estimated turnout - 40pct

FYI - last by election we predicted was in Runcorn and Helsby. We forecasted Reform winning only just and that is what transpired. https://t.co/u6MxoyYmnd

Caerphilly Senedd by-election projection ➡️ RFM: 39.6% 🟡 PC: 37.1% 🌹LAB: 16.7% Reform GAIN from Labour

Yes, that's right. Your Party is now included in our polling prompts and seat projections.

One month before turning 95, Patricia Routledge wrote this, she died today aged 96. “I’ll be turning 95 this coming Monday. When I was younger, I often worried I wasn’t good enough—that I’d never be cast again, that I’d disappoint my mother. But these days begin in peace and end

This real data roughly matches what the national opinion polls say would happen in Wigan in a GE. See our current projection below.

This is double the swing that Reform achieved in Runcorn and Helsby which is in the neighbouring constituency to this ward. What is also mad is that the turnout in this by election was *HIGHER* than the turnout in the corresponding local election.