Josh Housden
@JoshHousden
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He/Him • @Nowcast_EU / https://t.co/scJsIxKyPe founder • Green Party member 🍉 • I tweet about politics
Stockport
Joined July 2022
🇬🇧 UK | House of Commons nowcast update — September 28, 2025 ➡️ RFM: 30% | 344 (+339) 🟥 LAB: 19% | 95 (-316) 🟦 CON: 16% | 31 (-90) 🟧 LDM: 14% | 86 (+14) 🟩 GRN: 10% | 12 (+8) 🟨 SNP: 3% | 43 (+34) 🔲 PLC: 1% | 6 (+2) +/- vs. GE2024 🔗 https://t.co/Y6fcCnHbx6
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Compare to ~3 years ago Very different landscape + we don't have any figures for 'Your Party' yet https://t.co/LiWYdVtocr
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🇨🇵 | Since our model relies on a vote transfer matrix, we can simulate the result of certain pacts & alliances For example: Our current projection for RN is 250-270 seats, but NFP/ENS working together in the 2nd round could reduce that to <230
🇨🇵 France | Legislative Election nowcast — 13/10/2025 Our experimental seat projection: ⬛ RN: 34% | 250 - 270 🟥 FP: 24% | 150 - 170 🟨 EN: 15% | 50 - 70 ➡️ LR: 13% | 50 - 70 — 🟪 DvG: 4% / 5 - 15 🟦 DvD: 3% / 10 - 20 🟧 DvC: 2% / 0 - 10
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13% is the highest Greens have polled with YouGov (previously 12%) Still 2pts off their overall record of 15%
Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 27% (=) LAB: 20% (=) CON: 17% (=) LDM: 16% (-1) GRN: 13% (+1) SNP: 3% (-1) Via @YouGov, 12-13 Oct. Changes w/ 5-6 Oct.
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In today's entry of This Is Not Normal™ is council by-election turnout. And when it's high(er), who's winning them? https://t.co/NCsIkop9Wn
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🗞️ Four MPs from Renaissance, MoDem, PS and Les Écologistes announced on Monday 13 October in a press release that they would be tabling a bill to introduce proportional representation in parliamentary elections, which they believe will help ‘unblock the country’.
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100,000 confirms GPEW as the 2nd largest Green party in Europe and 5th largest in the world (by membership) Only behind 🇲🇽, 🇧🇷, 🇺🇲, 🇩🇪
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Imagine ...
People of Doncaster North. Are you happy with your MP? Would you like it if someone from your neck of the woods kicked him out?
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🇸🇪 | Bloc vote projection 🟥 LEFT: 52% | 198 (+25) 🟦 RIGHT: 46% | 151 (-25) +/- vs. 2022 S + V + MP have a 6 seat majority
🇸🇪 Sweden | Legislative Election nowcast — 12/10/2025 🟥 S: 35% | 132 (+25) 🟨 SD: 22% | 84 (+11) ➡️ M: 18% | 67 (-1) 🟪 V: 7% | 27 (+3) 🟩 MP: 6% | 21 (+3) 🔲 C: 5% | 18 (-6) ——— threshold ——— ⬛ KD: 3.6% | 0 (-19) 🟦 L: 2.9% | 0 (-16) +/- vs. 2022
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This might not perfectly match the main PR nowcast because that uses 4 country-level calculations instead of 1 national estimate Both should be >98% proportional though, which is about as good as it gets Hopefully this means more complex calculators in future... maybe 👀
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📊 User-defined PR calculator is live Enter your own vote shares, press calculate, build a coalition 🔗 https://t.co/D8qp2bqAx6
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Widcombe & Lyncombe (Bath & North East Somerset) Council By-Election Result: 🔶 LDM: 44.4% (-11.8) 🌍 GRN: 15.4% (+0.6) 🌹 LAB: 12.2% (+4.7) ➡️ RFM: 11.9% (New) 🌳 CON: 8.6% (-12.8) 🙋 Ind: 4.8% (New) 🙋 Ind: 2.6% (New) Liberal Democrat HOLD. Changes w/ 2023.
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🇬🇧 | Bath constituency nowcast — 11/10/2025 🟧 LDM: 44.0% (+2.7) 🟩 GRN: 17.1% (+4.7) ➡️ RFM: 15.3% (+7.4) 🟦 CON: 9.2% (-6.7) 🟥 LAB: 9.2% (-8.8) +/- vs. GE2024 Lib Dems won a council by-election here on Thursday, with 44.4% of the vote
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POLL/POBALBHREITH - PRESIDENT Connolly (IND): 36% (+19) Humphreys (FG): 25% (+3) Gavin (FF): 12% (-6) Unsure/Éiginnte: 27% +/- vs 9 Sept/MFómh 2025 Via @REDCResearch/@businessposthq D: October/DFómh 2025 S: ~1,000 #Ireland #Poll
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🇳🇱 Netherlands | Legislative Election forecast #1 — 11/09/2025 ⬛ PVV: 31 (-6) 🟥 GL/A: 25 (=) 🟩 CDA: 23 (+18) 🟦 VVD: 14 (-10) 🟩 D66: 13 (+4) ⬛ JA21: 12 (+11) 🟥 SP: 5 (=) ... +/- vs. 2023
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🇬🇧 South East England | House of Commons nowcast — 11/10/2025 ➡️ RFM: 29% | 48 (+48) 🟧 LDM: 24% | 31 (+7) 🟦 CON: 21% | 5 (-25) 🟥 LAB: 14% | 4 (-32) 🟩 GRN: 11% | 2 (+1) ⬜ OTH: 1% | 1 (+1) +/- vs. GE2024 🔗 https://t.co/x10zQNtrbI
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This will be the template for displaying Senedd and Holyrood forecasts too, alongside the usual maps & charts
*hypothetical PR scenarios* You can build your coalition and test it between now and the last GE. For example - the traffic light 👇 Try it here: https://t.co/UZcMMAVRwE
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