Nigel Marriott
@MarriottNigel
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Independent statistician using data to understand our world & to predict the future. Currently focused on pay gaps, diversity, elections, forecasting, surveys.
Bath, England
Joined June 2018
I now offer a newsletter you can subscribe to here. You can select from these categories to receive notifications of latest news, articles & offers. - Diversity & Pay Gaps.- Forecasting.- Elections.- Surveys & Polling.- Sport.- Weather.- #Stats Training.
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All 32 @BBCSport pundits predict the same 4 clubs as last season making up the EPL Top 4 this season. Odds are they're all wrong. The English top flight top 4 has only ever repeated in 5 seasons. 2001, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2021. BBC groupthink?.
bbc.co.uk
We ask 32 BBC Sport football pundits to predict who will win the Premier League title, and which clubs will finish in the top four this season.
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Is this the first poll ever to show AfD leading in Germany?.
Germany, Forsa poll:. AfD-ESN: 26% (+1).CDU/CSU-EPP: 24% (-1).SPD-S&D: 13%.GRÜNE-G/EFA: 13% (+1).LINKE-LEFT: 11% (-1).BSW-NI: 4%.FDP-RE: 3%. /- vs. 29 July - 04 August 2025. Fieldwork: 05-11 August 2025.Sample size: 2505. ➤
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Anybody analysed this data by constituency yet?.
🚨NEW: Petition calling for an 'immediate General Election' has reached over 500,000 signatures
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Some good points here from Chris about the quality of economic statistics in the UK and US. Concerning.
Trump showed how not to fire a statistics chief. but if you think the immediate departure of the UK's statistics chief ahead of a very critical report was any better, think again. My newsletter.
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Great example!.
Great example of Simpson's paradox here: . The marriage + homeownership rate has collapsed, but within each marital group, homeownership has increased since 1990!
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RT @__paleologo: I did not know that, for any random variable x, . | mean(x) - median(x) | <= stdev(x). Direct proof: .
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RT @MarriottNigel: Is 2025 now the new normal for British politics?. Other parties combined (ie not CON, LAB & LD) have led the polls since….
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Is 2025 now the new normal for British politics?. Other parties combined (ie not CON, LAB & LD) have led the polls since Sept 2024. They are not far off from 50% of voting intentions. Will the world before 2025 ever come back?
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High school cliques continue to rule the Netherlands as my wife would say!. A governing coalition would need a minimum of 4 parties.
Netherlands, Ipsos I&O poll:. PVV-PfE: 17% (-2).GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 15% (-3).CDA-EPP: 15% (+1).VVD-RE: 13% (-2).D66-RE: 8% (+1).JA21~ECR: 5% (+3).SP-LEFT: 4%.PvdD-LEFT: 4%.BBB-EPP: 3%.DENK-*: 3% (+1).SGP-ECR: 3%.CU-EPP: 3% (+1).Volt-G/EFA: 3% (+1).FvD-ESN: 2%.NSC-EPP: 1%. /- vs.
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RT @salonium: I'm very proud to have won the Royal Statistical Society's award for best statistical commentary by a non-journalist this yea….
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RT @MarriottNigel: The right & wrong way to read polls today. @BritainElects posts 2 polls with @FindoutnowUK showing a 14pt lead & @YouGo….
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England v Spain in the Women's Euro Final today represents two statistical achievements when men & women tournaments are combined. - 1st time where successive men & women's finals are contested by the same two nations. - England are 1st nation to play in 4 successive finals.
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@FindoutnowUK have achieved a notable distinction in their last 2 polls which I hope @markpack can confirm from his Pollbase data. They're the 1st pollster ever to show 50% of GB voters DO NOT intend to vote for the big 3 parties of CON+LAB+LD. 6/n.
Westminster Voting Intention:. RFM: 30% (-1).LAB: 20% (-2).CON: 17% (-2).LDM: 13% (=).GRN: 12% (+3). Via @FindoutnowUK, 16 Jul. Changes w/ 9 Jul.
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But the underlying stability of the Right & the Left is the story of 2025 polls. The difference between @FindoutnowUK & @Yougov is enough to suggest an underlying difference in their methodologies. Has someone with with more knowledge than me written anything about this?. 5/n
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We shouldn't underplay the dramatic changes within the 2 wings. REF have led the monthly polling avgs for the last 6 months, setting a new record for polls lead from a party that isn't CON or LAB. Previous record of 5mths was set by the Alliance between Oct '81 & Feb '82. 4/n
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This is a theme I discussed earlier this month in this blog. Since the start of the year, polls have been remarkably stable when viewed through a Right v Left lens. 3/n
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The right way is to count-. The Right = REF + CON.The Left = LAB + LD + GRN. So latest polls are-. @FindoutnowUK .Right 50%.Left 44%. @YouGov .Right 44%.Left 49%. YG & FON are the 2 ends of the R v L spectrum over the last 30 days. Avg Last 25 polls.Right 47%.Left 46%. 2/n
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The right & wrong way to read polls today. @BritainElects posts 2 polls with @FindoutnowUK showing a 14pt lead & @YouGov a 4pt lead for REF over LAB. Looking at polls by party is the wrong way to read them. A thread on the right way to read the polls. 1/6
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RT @lakens: The first step to publishing null results is to learn about equivalence testing, and design studies that statistically support….
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