Adam Carlson
@admcrlsn
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Founding Partner of @ZenithPolls. Spreadsheets help me relax. Views are my own.
Joined December 2009
Ok time for a geographic and demographic *deep* dive mega thread on the NYC mayor’s race. Here I’ll be using the New York Times’ excellent categorical precinct mapping tool (link at bottom). Let’s nerd out. 🧵
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Just read @michaelkruse and this is easily the best profile written about Graham Platner so far. Lots of new details about his past, which has so far been mostly understood only in broad strokes, as well as the specifics on his recruitment and much more.
politico.com
The candidate embodies a quarter-century of raw American frustration. It’s the source of his strength — and potentially his downfall.
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My two cents are that these ratings are a bit too conservative for Democrats, but even as it stands now they are favored to take back the House.
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🗳️ Lessons from the Tennessee Special Election Breaking down the lessons from the Tennessee special election, what Republicans have to be enthusiastic about, and what adjustments they’ll make going into the midterms.
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And of course the SCOTUS ruling on Section 2 of the VRA looms large.
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Potential additional Republican mid-decade gerrymanders loom in Florida (post-VRA SCOTUS ruling), Indiana (Senate vote pending) & South Carolina. Potential additional Democratic mid-decade gerrymanders loom in Illinois, Maryland & Virginia (most likely).
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Updated House big board — based on the average of the latest ratings from Cook, Inside Elections & Sabato’s Crystal Ball. As of now, if Dems win all seats they are currently favored in (Safe + Likely + Lean + Tilt D) they will be at 210 seats — 8 short of a majority.
Inside Elections just shifted the ratings of 16 House races toward Democrats: CA-48 (R-Issa) FL-07 (R-Mills) IL-17 (D-Sorensen) MI-03 (D-Scholten) MI-08 (D-McDonald Rivet) MN-02 (D-Open) MI-04 (R-Huizenga) NE-02 (R-Open) NV-04 (D-Horsford) NY-18 (D-Ryan) NY-22 (D-Mannion) (1/2)
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These kinds of polls are even funnier after last Tuesday
Napolitan News/RMG poll | 12/1-12/4 RV Generic congressional ballot 2026 🟥Republican 48% (+2) 🟦Democratic 44% (no change) https://t.co/BB8EU8BW04
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“Who is funding Ms. Rachel” Have some of you truly lost your minds? Do you know how much money she makes off YouTube with her 13 billion views. And she gains hundreds of millions of views every single month. Do you have any idea how much she makes off of her toy line?
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President John F. Kennedy meeting with a Somali diplomat after the signing of the sovereignty transfer of the State of Minnesota to the Somali Republic. (Muhiim Accords, 1962).
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Somalisota has a right to defend itself
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Worry not Americans, Somalis will save you from your pedophilic overlords and protect your helpless children
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Not many people know: Abraham Lincoln’s grandfather was of Somali descent and one of the real founding fathers. Turns out former Somali President Abdiqasim Salad Hassan is literally from the same family tree. The bloodline been presidential since 1776 🇸🇴🗽
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Are you ready for a birthright trip to the promised lands of Minnesota? Now offering Aliyah Tours from Mogadishu to Minneapolis to all Somalis worldwide. A return to our homeland! Read the thread for further details:
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Is anyone else’s For You feed suddenly getting flooded with (phenomenal) Somali content/accounts?
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Honestly a really impressive performance by Behn in Clarksville
On Tuesday, Republican Matt Van Epps won the TN-07 special election by just under 9 points, a double-digit underperformance of President Trump's performance last year. Here's a map emphasizing the role developed precincts played in fuelling Democrat Aftyn Behn's overperformance:
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Oh and nice job on the due diligence of what was already one of the most idiotic maps I’ve ever seen
Activists on the far left think that Mamdani's race is the blueprint for winning nationwide. However, we have new maps that show why moderates are the right model for success. It’s the difference between electoral renewal and ruin. See the data: https://t.co/zjuk6Oqs2b
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