8 months out from the election, polls are still suggesting 2024 will be the largest racial realignment since the Civil Rights Act was passed
Here are the aggregated crosstabs from non-partisan GE polls from reputable pollsters fielded in Feb 2024
First up is Biden vs Trump
🧵
Becoming clear that an entire generation of younger progressives whose political character was formed during the Obama admin take the extra-gentle media treatment he got as the baseline to which any Dem president is entitled. Hence their indignation when we do our jobs.
The effects of AOC’s pivot to becoming slightly more pragmatic:
On one hand, she’ll lose the respect of dozens of online leftists who think she’s betrayed The Cause
On the other hand, she’ll now probably be a Senator at the very least, and will actually get things accomplished
“Biden should forgive all student loan debt by executive order!”
“Biden should have codified Roe by executive order!”
“Biden needs congressional approval to bomb slaver pirate terrorists that attacked US civilian ships!”
I am begging you all to take a high school civics class
The idea that 2024 will be the last democratic election if Trump wins is disinformation on the order of the 2020 election being stolen.
If people are this confident in this, they should be willing to put money on the 2028 election being canceled.
This is an insane perspective for many reasons, but a few things:
- You may not think it’s enough, but the Democratic Party is the most progressive it’s ever been
- If Biden loses it’ll pivot to the center (as it did after being locked out of power from 1980-1992), not the left
biden has to lose, if he wins we are locked into his version of the democratic party forever. we’ll survive a second trump term but the world can’t survive the current american political status quo, something has to give
People who say “both of these choices are horrible let’s just overthrow the system” never really have a good follow-up for what happens to America’s most vulnerable people in the interim period when the authoritarians are in power and you’re all planning this supposed revolution
Greg Abbott is openly defying a Supreme Court ruling and essentially daring Biden to take control of the Texas National Guard
New York Times: “Nah we’re not gonna cover that, we need to stay locked in on Nikki Haley’s dress and a $1.7 million toilet”
Gentle reminder that Dean Phillips gave up a safe House seat for this because he was swindled by a bunch of consultants.
Good night, sweet Gelato King. History will forget you.
My honest answer — 2016 radicalized me into becoming a pragmatist.
My primary ideology became defeating as many Rs as possible rather than needing my president/party to align with my views on every single issue.
And I have zero patience for anyone who gets in the way of that.
SOTU doesn’t usually matter, no. But the elite discourse around Biden and his age has been so negative and there’s so much slack in Biden’s numbers among traditional Democratic groups that it’s easy to see how even a typical performance could be unusually helpful
Folks, there is no difference between a 6-3 and a 7-2 and you all should stop wetting the fucking bed over it.
There is nothing to gain to replace Sotomayor and about 8-9 lower court judges to lose.
Revealed preferences tell you a lot. Biden isn't doing a Super Bowl interview for the second year in a row; Biden did one in 2021 and Obama did one all 8 years. If he can't do a Super Bowl interview, h3 shouldn't be running for a second term.
Every single tweet from a New York Times reporter since that Politico story dropped just further confirms how shaken they all are by it, and how little self-awareness they have at how they are coming across.
You are not special. You are not beyond criticism. Get over yourselves.
Seven months after Trump, a frequent Howard Stern guest in his pre-presidency years, called the host a "broken weirdo," Stern has invited Biden on his show for a softball interview. So far, Biden has taken every opportunity to strike a character contrast with Trump.
Everyone on here, apparently:
*Uncommitted does slightly better than expected in one state*
OH MY GOD BIDEN IS GONNA LOSE MINNESOTA
*Trump continues to underperform polling & put up very unimpressive numbers against Haley for a pseudo-incumbent*
THIS MEANS ABSOLUTELY NOTHING
🚨🚨BREAKING — NINE GOP candidates for speaker.
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, Republican Conference Vice Chair Mike Johnson, RSC Chair Kevin Hern (Okla.), Reps. Byron Donalds (Fla.), Austin Scott (Ga.), Jack Bergman (Mich.), Pete Sessions (Texas), Gary Palmer (Ala.) and Dan…
Very quietly and very gradually AOC — both in rhetoric and House voting record — has become much more pragmatic than her fellow Squad members.
She’s still true to her convictions but doesn’t burn bridges just to virtue signal to/placate the left.
And I absolutely love it.
NBC News - 1/28/2024 -
@AOC
says Biden is "virtually the nominee of the party" and says he's the strongest person to take on Trump
"Especially when you look at this field, we have
@deanbphillips
and
@marwilliamson
...Pres. Biden without question is the strongest... "
Haley is just shy of ~150K votes (15%) in Florida with 85% reporting.
Must be all those Democrats and Independents crossing over to vote for her again!
…
Wait, what’s that? It’s a closed primary?
Wow. I didn’t know that. I just — you’re telling me now for the first time.
Biden hasn't given a single in-depth interview in 3 1/2 years to the New York Times, Washington Post or Wall Street Journal. Trump's no better. This isn't normal.
Democratic talking heads keep saying if Trump is elected, Republicans will pass a national abortion ban.
To do this, it would have to pass the House & Senate.
So the question is: why didn’t Democrats codify Roe when they held the House & Senate in 2022?
Woah, Neptune is actually light blue! We'd been misinformed for 35 years!
The well-known images from Voyager 2 were not accurately colour balanced & apparently they also increased the contrast way more than for the Uranus images. Here the corrected ones:
1) That’s quite literally what a ceasefire is
2) If Biden himself flew over there and single handedly brokered an indefinite peace deal between Israel & Hamas & somehow got Netanyahu to resign, his critics would say “I still won’t vote for him, he should’ve done this months ago”
New Biden campaign ad features a woman who says she had to flee Texas to end a planned pregnancy after the doctors said the fetus had no chance of survival. “Because of Donald Trump overturning Roe v. Wade.”
People who say shit like this don’t actually care about the future of this country, or the irreparable damage that another Trump presidency would do to it.
All they really care about is being able to say “I told you so” if Biden loses to gain clout or relevance.
And it’s gross.
You don't demonstrate your seriousness that Trump is an existential threat to democracy by going through the motions to renominate an 81-year-old with a 38% approval rating who 75% of voters think is too old without giving anyone a choice because that's just how things are done.
Another primary, another overrepresentation of Trump's strength in pre-election polls. But there's no reason to believe that might also be the case in the general election polls, right?
Mark Cuban backs Biden (not super enthusiastically): “If they were having his last wake, and it was him versus Trump, and he was being given last rites, I would still vote for Joe Biden"
@josh_wingrove
reports
Genuinely don’t get what’s so difficult to understand about the difference between Netanyahu/IDF brass vs. Jewish people just trying to go about their daily lives
*checks notes* yeah no I did recall correctly that roe v wade was reversed under Biden and nothing has happened since to correct it on a federal level.
Wake up, Democrats!
Our only path to victory this November is nominating a guy that won 1 out of 234 townships (0.004%) in the New Hampshire primary against someone who wasn’t even on the ballot.
Worst approval since Jimmy Carter, who got crushed by Reagan.
4 points BELOW Donald Trump at the same point.
Down 8 in Michigan & Georgia.
Is anyone paying attention?
As someone who read Ezra’s piece in full, I don’t think it’s worth reading unless you enjoy feeling anxious & pinning your hopes on West Wing-esque fantasies
Talking ad nauseam about Biden’s age only feeds the beast
Biden will be the nominee. Get on board or get out of the way
Even if you don't agree with where he lands, it's worth reading
@ezraklein
's Biden piece, especially since a LOT of Democrats share his exact concern: yes, Biden's a good man, has been a great president, and isn't too old for the job. But because he looks and sounds so much older…
Per CNN/SSRS, only 5% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents cite Middle East/Israel as their biggest concern about Biden
This is a rebellion that is mostly happening online
Among DEM - Top 7 Biggest Concerns About Biden:
His Age/Too Old: 46%
Economy/Inflation: 6%
Middle East/Israel: 5%
Mental Competence/Senility: 5%
Concerns About Popularity: 4%
Not Doing A Good Job: 3%
Not Progressive Enough: 3%
SSRS / Jan 30, 2024 / n=442
Haley: He mocked my husband's military service. If you have something to say, don't say it behind my back. Get on a debate stage and say it to my face. If you mock the service of a veteran, you don't deserve a driver's license let alone being President of the United States.
I used to work at HarrisX — the firm that conducted this poll — & managed their political polling (was the wrong fit for many reasons & I quit after 10 months)
All I’ll say is there’s a reason they don’t detail their methodology & you shouldn’t trust a single thing they release
Not sure why Blinken hasn’t told Netanyahu that the Toledo city council passed a resolution urging a ceasefire, seems like a missed opportunity to achieve peace
BREAKING: Netanyahu told Blinken during their meeting today he won't accept a deal that will include ending the war. He said if Hamas doesn't drop this demand there will be no deal and Israel will invade Rafah, per Israeli and U.S. officials
Something to keep in mind when you see tweets like this from reporters perpetuating narratives that they helped create — the Biden admin has been awful for their employers’ revenue, especially relative to the Trump years
Four more years of Biden would be disastrous for them
Per new CNN poll, two-thirds of registered Democrats/Dem-leaning independents want to nominate someone other than Biden
But when they’re asked if there’s anyone in particular they’d like to see nominated over Biden, 82% can’t name anyone specific that they want
Incredible stuff
More and more clear the collapsing GOP House position has been orchestrated by Democrats. They saw a slim majority and instead of giving up, they went to work.
They helped get rid of McCarthy as speaker.
They led the charge with the help of Republicans to remove Santos from…
No Labels' spoiler bid has suddenly entered full meltdown mode. No serious candidates are interested. The group's public justifications are increasingly ludicrous. Time to pull the plug.
We have lots of new reporting and info in this piece. 1/
Link:
RCP appears to be refusing to add the latest national polls from Politico/Morning Consult (Biden +2) and Echelon Insights (Biden +3) to their average just so Trump can cling to a nominal lead.
Many major media outlets still regularly cite them and their averages.
Even if Biden’s SOTU doesn’t end up persuading a single undecided voter, this is the most fired up I’ve seen rank-and-file Dems all cycle
And that’s been the big missing thing —enthusiasm. That translates to volunteering, donations & a genuine belief he can win
And that matters
For the third straight election — after an attempted insurrection — the media is treating this like a normal election instead of the existential crisis that it is
Pledging to not defend NATO allies from Russia should be the lead story everywhere
But no, let’s focus on Biden old
Trump says he would encourage Russia to attack NATO allies: I said I would not protect our NATO allies. In fact, I would encourage Russia to do whatever the hell they want
This is an unpopular opinion, but Democrats should be thankful for Joe Manchin.
He’s a Democratic Senator from WV, the second-most Republican state in the 2020 presidential election.
He’s voted to confirm almost all of Biden’s judicial nominees & shuts down bullshit like this.
News: Manchin whacks Mayorkas impeachment in interview, says there shouldn't be Senate trial
"It's crap. Pure crap. No trial at all, it's ridiculous. The trial will be in November. No...You got a problem, go to the polls."
Senate can dismiss w majority
You are watching to see if "Uncommitted" can hit 15%.
I am watching to see if the corpse of Marianne Williamson's campaign can outperform Dean Phillips.
We are not the same.
Thanks to the crosstabs provided by Sam we can see that AOC has 71/11! favorability with NYS Dems, 52/26 favorability in NYC, 55/21 favorability with Latinos and 58/6 favorability with black voters! Weird how the polling constantly contradicts the narratives we hear.
“Why won’t Biden call for a ceasefire?!”
[Biden calls for immediate ceasefire and within hours extracts major humanitarian aid concessions]
“Well I still can’t in good conscience vote for him, he should have done this months ago.”
[Biden courts Haley voters]
“How dare you.”
Not only are the Israelis opening the Erez crossing for aid, they’re also allowing aid to be transported to Ashdod for unloading as well. Combine this with the IDF reworking their engagement rules/reprimanding & firing command stuff, Biden must’ve set one heck of a red line
I’m convinced the person running this account is a deep cover Democrat
They mostly post videos of Biden doing normal/relatable shit (e.g. eating ice cream) or giving some of his better speeches
Like no one reasonable that watches this video thinks he’s confused, just pissed off
A VERY confused Joe Biden starts absolutely SCREAMING as he recounts the recycled "suckers and losers" hoax — slurring the entire way.
The man is NOT well. 😳
I abhor partisan gerrymandering. It's undemocratic. We should pass a nationwide ban on it.
But until we do, there's no reason that Democrats should unilaterally disarm.
Let's go nuclear.
NYS Dems aren’t being the least bit shy about their attempt to gerrymander the heck out of NY’s Congressional districts.
Where’s the outrage from the press and the so-called good government groups who have assailed red states for partisan hyper gerrymandering?
New York Democrats did what New York Democrats do.
They continue their streak of being the most toothless, out of touch & politically inept state party in the US.
If Dems fall 2-3 seats short of flipping the House in November, you can blame Carl Heastie & Andrea Stewart-Cousins
We've had a surprising series of events in New York. New York Democrats in the state legislature appeared to be doing everything they could to gear up for a mega-gerrymander. Instead, they are on track to pass a map that remains highly competitive and balanced.
A Democratic strategist close to the White House tells me: “It’s not just Biden’s worst day as president. It’s Trump’s best day since Biden has been president.”
This is not how polling momentum works.
I expect this type of framing from random Twitter users with 8 numbers in their handle, not the chief White House Correspondent for the New York Times.
Recent momentum for Biden has faded in swing states, according to new poll by
@Bloomberg
and
@MorningConsult
. Trump leads in NC (+10), Nev. (+8), Ariz. (+7), Ga. (+6), Wisc. (+4) and Pa. (+1). Biden edges Trump in only one swing state, Mich. (+2).
Jake Sherman’s account rn:
• JIM JORDAN is VERY close to becoming 56th Speaker
• PANERA BREAD is the food of choice tonight for the House GOP Conference
• Repost: “Only the IDF can be trusted right now”
• JIM JORDAN’s bid to be Speaker is in dire trouble & ALWAYS has been
This is not the first time I’ve wondered what the alternate timeline is like where Biden appointed Doug Jones as Attorney General instead of Merrick Garland
INSANE leak from the WH (Per Politico)
Recently, Biden has complained that “had Garland moved sooner in his investigation into former President Donald Trump’s election interference, a trial may already be underway or even have concluded.”
I see this a lot: “Obama should’ve codified Roe when he had a Senate supermajority & big House majority from 2009-2010”
Either folks are too young or memory-holed how many truly conservative Ds there were then
Obama barely got a watered down healthcare bill passed w/ those #’s
Before you start panicking or celebrating as votes start to roll in tomorrow, here's what to expect:
KY
Blue mirage, then red shift (early vote drops first)
OH
Blue mirage, then red shift
NJ & PA
Depends on the county
VA
Red mirage, then blue shift (E-Day vote drops first)
WHY DEMS HAVE A RIGHT TO BE FRUSTRATED:
Trump ordered Congress Rs to kill the border bill. They did as told. So who gets the blame? Biden (49%), not Trump (38%).
(ABC News/Ipsos)
Takes two brain cells to realize maybe she doesn’t want her or her family to be subjected to more racist attacks from the right/media
What *is* mind-bogglingly selfish is having considerable reach & using it to doom about Biden 24/7 just to boost your engagement/follower count
Pre-writing NYT headlines for the NY-03 special election:
Suozzi wins by 5+ pts:
“Suozzi’s Win Means Nothing for November”
Suozzi wins by <5 pts:
“Suozzi’s Narrow Win is a Warning Sign for Democrats in November”
Suozzi loses:
“Suozzi’s Loss is a Five-Alarm Fire for Democrats”
Uncommitted getting 12-14% is the purgatory nightmare outcome for horrible takes (on both sides).
And it seems like that's exactly where we're heading.
God help us all.
I’ve read a fair amount of replies to the Politico story from NYT reporters, and to me they’ve only reinforced:
1) How out of touch they are — only journalists care about how many interviews he’s done
2) How special they think NYT is — unable to handle any criticism whatsoever
@JohnJHarwood
The frame of this story is just Twitter bait bs. Biden hasn’t done an interview with any major newspaper and has done the fewest interviews of any recent president
Very quietly, RFK Jr.’s average vote share in national polls has been shrinking in since he announced his independent bid in October:
Oct: 13.2%
Nov: 13.5%
Dec: 11.2%
Jan: 9.7%
Feb: 11.3%
Mar: 9.9%
Apr (so far): 8.0%
Reminder: in order to get on the debate stage RFK Jr. needs to hit 15% in an average if five polls chosen by the Commission. He's not hitting 15% in any polls.
Now that we have close to to final numbers in NH, Biden (as a write-in) outperformed his statewide vote share in the bigger college towns:
Durham (UNH): 71%
Hanover (Dartmouth): 79%
Statewide: 64%
If Biden's in trouble with the youths, we didn't see much evidence of it in NH
Meanwhile, Biden is holding up well in NH college towns
Not all townships have finished processing their write-in votes so we don't have a Biden statewide number
But he's at 71% in Durham (UNH) & 79% in Hanover (Dartmouth) -- both are likely to be at/above his statewide total
Greg Abbott is openly defying a Supreme Court ruling and essentially daring Biden to take control of the Texas National Guard
New York Times: “Nah we’re not gonna cover that, we need to stay locked in on Nikki Haley’s dress and a $1.7 million toilet”
NEW: Senator Katie Britt, who creeped out America following her bizarre State of the Union response, has introduced a bill to create a federal database of pregnant Americans.
All Sinema had to do was be a normie Democrat, not be a fucking weirdo, and not be a shill for private equity and she could have held that seat for a couple of decades.
I didn’t say seniors shouldn’t be able to vote. I said there are voting discrepancies in nursing homes.
That’s a fact. Plain and simple.
The media is twisting my words because they don’t want to acknowledge the problems.
I've seen a lot of embarrassing days for different House Republican leadership teams. This one is pretty high on the list.
They lost a vote to impeach Mayorkas. And then they lost a vote to send $17.6 billion to Israel.
They didn't need to vote on the israel bill today. They…
Not sure where this guy got his PhD in Poli Sci from, but Democrats:
• Have won 3 of the last 4 presidential elections (and have won the popular vote in 7 of the last 8)
• Had a historically strong midterm in 2022
• Are absolutely dominating in specials/off-year elections
Democrats keep losing elections because liberals are more happy to partner with conservatives to defeat progressives than to partner with progressives to defeat conservatives.
This poll is cute and all, but if Trump loses to Biden in 2024 (and is still breathing) he’ll still be the runaway favorite to win the GOP nomination in 2028
Narrator: “But he, in fact, did not come up with it. He was just an angry manchild with an undeserved god complex who took credit for others’ content without citation on a regular basis. He desperately sought the validation of strangers because he was deeply broken on the inside”
1) Not even remotely shocking, but still pretty incredible to see this admission from an NYT reporter
2) Thrilled that
@DougJBalloon
is getting the recognition he deserves
wow - NYT reporter says their nonstop coverage of Biden’s age is retribution for not giving their boss an interview:
“It’s A.G. He’s the one who is pissed [that] Biden hasn’t done any interviews and quietly encourages all the tough reporting on his age.”
It’s possible to believe three things at once:
1) Biden selling weapons to Israel is gravely immoral & will forever be a scar on his legacy
2) There is more to this election than one issue
3) Protest votes accomplish nothing other than making the voter feel morally superior
If he reacted like this from losing the DC GOP primary (completely inconsequential, only ~2K votes), imagine how unhinged he’ll be w/ his literal freedom on the line while we’re waiting for days for mail-in votes to be counted in Milwaukee, Detroit, Maricopa County & Clark County
New York Democrats are rejecting the congressional maps drawn by the independent redistricting commission after rejecting the maps drawn by an independent special master.
They plan to gerrymander the maps even after New Yorkers said NO in two referendums.
Corrupt.
To all the "just replace Biden with Whitmer or Newsom" people:
Passing over the first Black female VP in US history as the Dem nominee — and spitting in the face of Black women — will destroy the Dem coalition & guarantee that Trump wins the presidency
It's Biden or it's Harris
*NYT/Siena Swing State Polls (Oct 22 - Nov 2)*
• Trump leads among voters age 18-29 in AZ, GA, tied in MI
• Cohn does a whole write-up about it
*NYT/Siena National Poll (Feb 25-28)*
• Biden leads Trump 54% to 41% among voters age 18-29
• Completely ignored in NYT’s analysis
Mike Johnson & Jim Jordan have nearly identical voting records
Johnson led the amicus brief supporting a lawsuit seeking to overturn the 2020 election results
~20 House Rs voted to block Jordan “on principle”
If they vote for Johnson today it proves that was 100% performative
Rep Mike Lawler told me: “Obviously I did not support the removal of Kevin McCarthy. I think it was arguably the stupidest move ever made in politics. But we have to move forward. And so we’re going to rally around Mike Johnson and elect him speaker tomorrow and get back to work”