Jack Worth
@JackWorthNFER
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Education economist @TheNFER . Research teacher recruitment, retention and development. 'The guru on all matters workforce' - Samfr. Other half of @jackieoates
Wallingford, UK
Joined March 2021
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Teachers' pay has fallen in real terms since 2010. But has this happened to the same extent in other OECD countries?
OECD data says no. England is an outlier for teacher pay growth 2010-2020
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NEW: Official ITT data from DfE reveals that not enough teachers are entering training to meet the need for future teachers
13 out of the 17 secondary subjects, plus primary, failed to meet their recruitment targets
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Recruitment into postgrad teacher training in England has gone very badly this year, a sign of renewed teacher supply challenges that need addressing
- How bad is it?
- Why has it gone so badly?
- What do we do now?
🧵👇
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February ITT application stats for England are so bad that this year is now looking worse than last year, which is quite something 😲
- primary 15% lower than same time last year
- secondary 2% higher despite big bursary uplifts
Let me explain a bit more...🧵
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More teacher vacancies are chasing fewer new trainees, which means a squeeze on teacher supply
A thread on the findings from today's NFER Teacher Labour Market report
-What is going on?
-Why are things so bad?
-What to do about it?
👇
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England teacher training update: recruitment for September still well below target across most secondary subjects. Looks like recruiting teachers will be very challenging for secondary schools in 2024
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It's very hard to overstate how dreadfully bad these ITT application numbers are
- Primary is 8% lower than 2019, despite no bursary change in between 😬
- Secondary is 23% lower than 2019 😱
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DfE has published 2023 ITT targets: expects to need more trainees in subjects that are already struggling to recruit, further compounding teacher supply challenge
Our updated forecast suggests LESS THAN HALF of required secondary trainees will be recruited this year 😲🧵
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Which subjects are on track to meet their postgraduate ITT recruitment targets in England this year? Errr, not that many on the evidence so far...
Here's a thread with a full set of subject-level trend data for this year so far, against an estimated, indicative target path👇
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These ITT numbers really are astonishingly bad and really concerning. Pandemic effect plus changes to target-setting risks some measures being misleading
But here's a clear measure: how many trainees in each subject, compared to the year *before* the pandemic. Way down in most👇
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This ITT recruitment cycle has gone from very good to poor really, really quickly. It raises important questions about next year and beyond and potentially rockets teacher supply back towards the top of the policy agenda (or at least, it should)
Here's what happened, and why 👇
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ITT applications data breakdowns: what is happening to the trends in each subject?
A thread for those with subject-specific interests 🧵:
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Latest teacher training application data for January has landed and it is... not good
Down 24% on last year, perhaps to be expected given the economic bounceback
But 8% down on the same time in 2019, 2% down on (pre-Covid) 2020 and not on a healthy trajectory 🧵
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The Times reporting that teacher pay rise may be set at 2% next year. Bank of England expects wider pay to rise 5.25% in 2023 and 2.75% in 2024, so this would be a further hit to teacher pay competitiveness, and likely undermine recruitment and retention even more
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One of the letters sitting on Nadhim Zahawi's new desk at Number 11 is (if Telegraph story is correct) a letter from a Mr N. Zahawi asking for Treasury funding for a 5% teacher pay rise. Increased chances of it happening?
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Official Government data shows quite how dire the teacher training recruitment situation is in England right now, with only half the required secondary trainees recruited and 15 out of 18 subjects failing to meet their targets
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NEW: DfE has announced higher bursaries for Sep 2023, in response to a difficult year of teacher recruitment in 2022, and as applications open for next year
What are their likely implications for teacher recruitment next year?
A thread of analysis:
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Teacher exodus shows workload, pay and flexibility must be fixed
Me in
@tes
on yesterday's teacher workforce and retention data
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Another year of poor ITT recruitment is on the cards, with 11 out of 17 subjects below target, and geography and primary also likely to be below. Bursaries and international recruitment propping some subjects up a little, but generally weak like last year
/1
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Overall, teacher recruitment this year is similar to last year’s poor performance, but there is big variation between phases/ subjects, and where applications are coming from:
- Secondary up 13%, primary down 11%
- Growth dominated by international recruitment
More 👇
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There are signs of serious weakness in teacher recruitment in England that are worrying for future teacher supply 🧵
Some are obvious, like most secondary subjects will miss their targets this year
But others are troubling because they are not immediately obvious from the data
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We need to talk about recruitment to primary ITT. This year so far numbers are down 19% on the same time last year 😱
Last year primary did not meet its recruitment target, and is on track to reach around 75% of last year's target by year end
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A thread on some of the key trends in today's ITT data:
Secondary is HALF of target. Target has gone up (method change that now rightly accounts for previous shortfalls) but key point is that recruitment is 22% lower than before the pandemic
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The poor trend in postgraduate ITT applications in England continues in the latest data to April. The bounceback in the wider labour market is making attracting teachers more challenging
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June's postgrad ITT application numbers are not good, especially secondary. Primary similar to the same point in 2019, but total number of secondary applicants accepted on courses is 7 per cent below pre-pandemic 😬
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Ahead of tomorrow's Autumn Statement, a reminder of what has happened to teacher pay since 2010. Pay has risen, but more slowly than prices and average earnings. Starting salary has risen by more than experienced teacher pay in recent years
(1/4)
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Quite the honour to be
@AnushkaAsthana
's Geek of the Week on
@itvpeston
, helping to illustrate the background to why teachers are striking
🚨
#Peston
x
@TheNFER
analysis
💥 Teacher recruitment was 29% below this year’s target
💥 Experienced teacher pay has fallen by 12% since 2010
💥 English teachers are more stressed than other OECD countries
Watch
@AnushkaAsthana
explain this and more below 👇
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There was an influx of applicants and recruits into ITT in England last month, but it remains highly likely that targets for most secondary subjects will be missed this year (latest forecast below)
🧵 on the details...
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Despite a slight uptick in ITT applications in England in May, secondary recruitment is still on course to be less than half of target
Media reports yesterday that STRB has recommended a 6.5% teacher pay rise, presumably in recognition of this intensified supply challenge
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Today's ITT recruitment numbers are a clear sign that the system is facing considerable teacher supply challenges once again
Total secondary recruitment:
Before Covid - 83%
During Covid - 103%
Now - 82%
But also big changes to way ITT targets are set that need some unpacking 🧵
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The kids and I are discussing teacher supply at tea time (as you do) and 4yo's solution is to order a teacher and 'when the builders have built the school, take the teacher out of the box'
This is not a solution I had previously considered... 🤔
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Teacher recruitment and retention issues are persisting, with workload challenges growing and pay competitiveness having eroded since 2010
NFER's Teacher Labour Market in England Annual Report 2024
Key insights 🧵👇
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Two important new
@TheNFER
reports on teacher retention with
@EducEndowFoundn
are out today:
-Managing teacher workload - practice review
- Flexible working approaches - evidence review
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All set up for my opening keynote at
#rEDNotts
and looking forward to a lively day. Thanks so much to
@j_pabla_
@MrColesDrama
for inviting me and organising
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England ITT recruitment update: application numbers so far pretty similar to last year's recruitment, which was dreadful
- Primary placed numbers are 8% down on the same time last year
- Secondary is 8% up, but mostly due to bursary increases rather than increased interest
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Longer-term: return to the themes of the recruitment and retention strategy of reducing workload, increasing opportunities for part-time and flexible working and addressing the long-term attractiveness of teaching, both financial and non-financial
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The last month of the cycle was so bad compared to previous years, that this forecast has got a little bit worse on last month in places
- less than half of required total science trainees
- English ~80% of target
- physics less than 20% of target
- computing just ~30% of target
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Today's teacher retention data (from summer 2021) shows that attrition rates bounced back up a bit, but remained below leaving rates from before the pandemic
For the first time ever more primary teachers left than secondary teachers 😮
Thread on some other highlights 👇
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Oooo I know the answer to this one! Pick me, pick me. PLEASE pick me!!
*clears throat*
Yes
ITT applications have dropped by almost 8 per cent compared with last year,
@ucas_online
data shows – is the teacher 'surge' over?
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Latest ITT applications data for England shows that the situation remains very slow: rate of new applications is running slightly below 2019 and pre-Covid 2020 rate
Waaaay below last year, as has been noted throughout this cycle so far:
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The main reason for these largest falls is that bursaries are lower than they were in 2019. This picture shows how powerful bursaries are at driving applicant behaviour
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The rate of new applications coming through over the last couple of months (green line) have been pretty dire
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woah, that is going straight on my bio. thanks
@Samfr
Also a cracking article, succinctly bringing the emerging teacher supply issues to the fore:
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Foundation child: 'At school I am in "We Need A Poo" group'
Mum: 'Why is it called that?'
Child: 'It's a bear with a red jumper...'
Fab story heard on the school gate, from my son's class, where the groups are named after AA Milne characters
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Findings from wave 2 of DfE’s Working Lives survey don’t paint a promising picture of progress towards addressing teacher recruitment and retention issues
- Workload & satisfaction worsening
- More considering leaving
- But more flex on offer
Key bits 👇
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What to do?
Key is improving attractiveness of profession:
- Increase pay by more than 4.1% on avg to improve competitiveness, as part of a funded long-term pay strategy
- Continue focusing on improving workload
- Look at improving flexibility
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Which groups have been seen notable increases in their attrition rates during the pandemic (before vs after)?
1. Primary heads and senior leaders.
cc
@NAHTnews
2. Teachers in their thirties (esp. women).
cc
@mtptproject
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NEW: Teacher training bursaries are effective at increasing long-term supply and are cost effective compared to alternatives
Bursaries are no silver bullet for teacher supply, but it’d be much worse without them
Report:
Thread on key findings 👇
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This is such a clear and succinct description of how to understand recruitment and retention decisions. Thanks
@Samfr
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Yesterday's ITT numbers were astonishingly bad and should be a real wake-up call for policymakers that teacher recruitment and retention needs urgent attention.
But if I was forced to be optimistic about the future, these are the things I would point to 👇
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Big well done to everyone in ITTE tonight. We see your tremendous efforts 👏👏
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Recruitment to postgrad teacher training in England last year was poor: primary and 13 out of 17 secondary subjects missed recruitment targets.
This year so far is not going any better
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TEACHER TRAINING APPLICATIONS UPDATE
Applications for next year's ITT in England remain 25% higher than same (pre-Covid) time last year.
Thread below for more 👇
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So proud of
@jackieoates
MA! Wonderful to share the occasion with the children, and show them a bit of the special city of Bristol
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STRB remit letter has been published. Lots of mentions of affordability, no mention of severe teacher recruitment and retention challenges and strong pay growth in the wider labour market to compete with
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Looking forward to speaking at the
@NASBTT
conference tomorrow morning, presenting the findings from some BRAND NEW research on what impact bursaries have on the characteristics of those who apply to ITT
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Pay is another key one. Teachers' pay has lost competitiveness with wider labour market over last decade. Pay fell in real terms 2010-2021 and has grown by 11pp less than grads, and 17pp less than average earnings
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Here's the England ITT application data by subject, which everyone always asks to see. This is placed applications, so best estimate of the change in numbers ending up in ITT come September, vs 2019
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Overall ITT application numbers remain lower than all of the previous three years: 6% below 2019, which is the real concern
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Very pleased to be collaborating with
@TeachFirst
and
@Ambition_Inst
on this important piece of new research
NEW - NFER,
@TeachFirst
and the
@Ambition_Inst
to work together on new research looking into how racial equality in the teacher workforce can be improved.
Read more here:
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Some secondary subjects are also down by more than others compared to their 2019 level: geography, biology, English, MFL all down by more than a third
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Here is the report:
Many thanks to all the colleagues that contributed to this, especially
@dawsonbmclean
, as well as
@H_FaulknerEllis
@tash_armstrong
Do join us for the webinar later this morning:
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My daughter's (Y3) suggestion to governors (I was not present) of what could the school do to be even better?
More maths 💪
That's my girl
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Astonishingly, without the expected bursary effect, overall secondary is down by 10% vs last year, and primary 15%. So underlying interest in entering teaching appears to be haemorrhaging
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Is the Covid surge in ITT applications over? I think it might be.
Here's why 👇:
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Geography 😬🙀. Bursary back up to £15k, but still waiting for it to kick in...
Don't look
@SteveBraceGeog
@DoctorPreece
🙈
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In real terms, experienced teacher pay is 14% lower than in 2010. Last year's STRB proposals would take that to 16% lower next year
If Government caps pay rise at 2% then experienced teacher pay would be 17% lower than in 2010
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Another key driver is flexibility. Grads mainly working from home has tripled to 45% in pandemic. We should be looking at more flexibility in teaching, but nature of profession means can't fully compete with that. Potentially worrying trend without compensating measures elsewhere
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But we should also be cautious. Jan numbers looked OK, and Feb look bad. Maybe March will be better? There's a lot of the year still to run.
What's clear is that last year was not a blip, and this year is unlikely to be substantially better.
Radical action is needed
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3. What needs doing?
Many of the bursary cuts need to be at least partially reversed. Biology, English, Geography are looking particularly in need of boosting
It's also time to plan for teacher pay increases. Another pay freeze would likely lead to a teacher shortage disaster
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Medium-term: continued pay increases next year and beyond to raise competitiveness. This year's award was OK, but not enough to shift the picture without further sustained uplifts. Would need to be affordable for schools too, obvs.
Me in TES last week:
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NEW: The teacher recruitment and retention crisis shows no signs of abating
Read NFER's Teacher Labour Market in England Annual Report for the latest trends on recruitment, retention, workload and pay 👇
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NEW: are we likely to recruit enough teachers this year in England, to meet the needs in 2024?
Unfortunately not, and here's why 🧵👇
Read the 2022 NFER Teacher Labour Market in England report here:
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40,000 working-age teachers left teaching in England in 2022, the most since comparable records started in 2010
Fewer retired, so the overall attrition rate is back at the pre-pandemic level, but another sign that teacher supply is a critical issue facing the school system
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Today NFER have published a new report with
@GatsbyEd
on teacher pay, forecasting the costs and impacts on supply of policy options available to policymakers
• Key findings -
• Report -
Some key messages in the thread below🧵👇
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This will be great. Women in their 30s are a crucial group for the future of teaching and leadership, and
@emma_au_soleil
is a powerful advocate for the specific set of factors that will help retain them in greater numbers if we can address them
In this upcoming webinar, we are joined by founder of the
#MTPTProject
,
@emma_au_soleil
, who will discuss the current landscape of the teaching profession, “the motherhood penalty”, and the challenges of teacher retention.
Join us on October 6th @ 5pm.
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Our latest ITT recruitment forecast looks dire across almost all secondary subjects. Primary is around target, thanks to it coming down this year from 11,600 to 9,200
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The tour continues: making the case for the importance of teacher recruitment and retention at
#LabourConference2022
, with
@PatrickR_NASUWT
@NASUWT
Hall 2C (ACC basement) at 1pm if you're around at conference today
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Latest England ITT applications data shows that this year's trend is on a par with pre-Covid years. After accounting for bursary changes vs 19/20, still maybe a little above the trend, but nowhere near last year's level
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What do we do now?
Short-term: increase some tactical bursaries to boost recruitment in some key subjects that are behind
- Biology has to be a priority so that science has more than half its trainees next year
- English, RE, geography seem like good candidates too
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Exactly, a (structural) lack of flexibility while all your mates increasingly work remotely is one of the most concerning trends facing the attractiveness of teaching and needs to be addressed somehow. Argued the same in my recent paper:
Since the pandemic many workers have experienced greater flexibility in their working arrangements. Consequently, teaching, nursing & other jobs with fixed workplaces are becoming less attractive to new entrants. A long term plan for pay, workload & flexible working is needed.
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A very similar picture to the recent trends in the latest postgraduate ITT applications data for England: still 23% down on last year and 3% lower than 2019
But some interesting shifts across regions and ITT routes going on underneath 🧵
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Subject by subject, we are still (projected to be) running behind target in most subjects
As I mentioned in my TES piece last week, English, RE, art and biology could all do with bursary increases next year to boost recruitment
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NEW: Are DfE’s pay proposals enough to tackle the coming teacher supply storm?
Our analysis shows current policy is unlikely to be sufficient for adequate recruitment & retention, especially in STEM
TES:
Report:
Summary thread 🧵
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To hear more analysis and discussion of these stats, and the rest of the teacher labour market, sign up to our webinar next month:
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Good to see the problem of changing URNs finally getting the exposure it deserves, after having needlessly driven quantitative education researchers potty for the past decade
It is now clear that the threatening email to trusts at 10pm Monday night was based on inaccurate records. Apparently the fact that converting schools change URN was a tricky concept to understand! Comments blaming schools yesterday haven’t aged well.
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NFER's Annual Teacher Labour Market in England report coming next month with more on recruitment, retention, pay, workload, etc. More details on that v soon 👀
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I will be up in Liverpool for
#LabourPartyConference
on Tuesday afternoon, discussing teacher workload. Give me a shout if you are there then too
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And as I reported earlier this week, recruitment numbers from applications so far this year are lower than the same time last year
All adds up to a supply situation that seems to be spiralling out of control
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Really looking forward to the
@UCET_UK
Conference tomorrow, including giving my keynote on all things teacher supply and drawing out the policy implications in light of the spending review
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This is despite higher bursaries in some secondary subjects. They've had an effect: geo, MFL, D&T bio, phys, chem all higher than last year.
But underlying interest, once you strip out the expected bursary impact is much more subdued
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We have repeatedly called for DfE to publish more information about how the targets are calculated using the new TWM methodology
We are therefore very pleased to see DfE publishing more detailed info today on this, which we will be digging into 🤓
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Super clear explanation of teacher pay issues from
@BBCRosAtkins
and team, and good to see expert contributions from
@lukesibieta
and from NFER's recent report on the teacher labour market
"Its not in dispute that teachers' wages have reduced in real terms in the last decade"
The latest teachers strike in England is today. 3 mins on what's happened to teachers' pay since 2012. The average teachers' salary has reduced in real terms - and more so than some other professions. Produced by Michael Cox, Rob England, Robert Cuffe.
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First ITT application data for 2023 cycle is out. A couple of interesting things in it, but main health warning is that it is far too early to conclude anything useful
After all, last year's November data was higher than all previous years and... didn't turn out well
1/2
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The wife and I are both ON TOUR.
@jackieoates
has a fancy poster and loads of dates. Go and see her sing!
Meanwhile, for the edu-nerds, I will be appearing at:
- SATURDAY
#researchEdNotts
- MONDAY Labour Party Conference
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