Ryan Evans
@EvansRyan202
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CEO @BedrockSaaS & @MetamorphicMdia /Founder @WarontheRocks /Not a journalist / IG+Threads: ryansontherocks /Opinions mine/ 🇺🇲
Washington, DC
Joined November 2011
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宝塚記念
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LINGORM TSOU FANMEET
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Afghanistan
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#BBEBxZeeNuNew
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ブローザホーン
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SURROUNDED BY LOVE
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FILLED WITH LOVE AT MNL
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ドウデュース
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#ユーフォ3期
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ソールオリエンス
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श्यामा प्रसाद मुखर्जी
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ディープボンド
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#anime_eupho
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ベラジオオペラ
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菅原騎手
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ジャスティンパレス
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菅原明良
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プラダリア
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ローシャムパーク
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G1初制覇
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#アイプラ3周年生放送
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ヘルナンデス
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I've been, as a rule, against further expansion NATO and think many past expansions were errors in judgment with negative consequences for the United States. But I am unreservedly in favor of Finland and Sweden joining NATO for three reasons.
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Tapping the phones of the Russian ambassador now a big scandal among some Americans
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Second, this is a reasonable consequence of and punishment for Russia aggression.
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First, they contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area by virtue of both their geographic position and their advanced military capabilities. These are not free-riders in the same way as many allies.
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Third, it formalized a preexisting alignment that has been beneficial to US and NATO interests.
Deepening it to an alliance in these cases will increase rather than decrease security (the same could not be said for others who have joined the alliance and others who still might)
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I've just returned from a week long research trip to Ukraine with
@KofmanMichael
@konrad_muzyka
@HoansSolo
. I went to get some ground truth, conduct interviews, meet with leaders, etc.
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I deplore Trump's remarks about NATO but the wisest response from European NATO members would be to dramatically increase defense spending & industrial investments rather than wasting time with counter-productive condemnations or complaints. You are in a new era. Act accordingly.
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Three months ago, we published this article by
@KofmanMichael
and I'm struck by how much he got right. It holds up well in terms of predicting what Russia would try to do and why. And noted that Moscow might be suffering from "war optimism"
@WarOnTheRocks
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That Hamas retains the capability to do this after over 6000 bombs dropped on Gaza should make a lot of people sit up and take notice, including those planning for the future of warfare.
Insanely Massive Rocket Attack just now against Tel Aviv.
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Whenever Woodward comes out with a new book, I think about this article
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I'm not super interested in predictions about Afghanistan from general officers who spent years telling us the Afghan security forces were capable and strong
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The vitriol directed at journalists reporting (correctly) that Zelensky had decided to fire Zaluzhny is shameful. To those responsible for this harassment: If you believe you're helping Ukraine by bullying journalists reporting on a bad-news story, you're a fool.
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I was against Brexit but it's interesting that some of the same people who predicted Brexit would lead to a Britain less relevant in global affairs are today deriding the Johnson govt for playing a muscular a role in the Ukraine crisis
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Want to understand Russia's war on Ukraine? We have curated a list of articles/podcasts for you. These resources are organized by focus: strategy/military balance, diplomacy, history, resistance, nuclear/arms control, cyber, energy, Ru politics, & more.
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I'm also, as a rule, against typos and tense mistakes, but clearly I erred in favor of them here
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If Germany was serious about Ukraine winning it would be doing everything it could to ensure Russia's economy can't endure beyond late summer/early fall.
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So maybe the lesson here is: when some people tell you they want these more advanced weapons to revolt against the government, believe them
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This is a clear violation of the Laws of Armed Conflict. One of many already. These generals and commanders ought to be named and indicted
Kyiv residents post videos of multiple large explosions as Russian silovik telegram channels boast of over 40 ballistic missiles launched at the city.
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I wish stories like these would also note that the vast majority of classified materials leaked by Snowden had nothing to do with domestic privacy or civil liberties
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Many of my predictions for how this war would unfold have been proven incorrect. I've been grappling with different aspects of this. Here I am going to focus on the failed opening military strategy that Moscow approved to try and oust the Zelensky govt🧵
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These are the clowns who we allowed to change our entire way of life
Fascinating: Abu Zubaydah said Al Qaeda planned to attack the Brooklyn Bridge because they saw it in a Godzilla movie. "We saw what happened when Godzilla stepped on the bridge," he said.
Per the newly declassified parts of
@Ali_H_Soufan
's book.
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This should not be allowed. A permanent fence would deface the neighborhood without solving the problems that led to a successful attack
PERMANENT SECURITY FENCING coming to US Capitol.
New statement from acting US Capitol Police chief: "Vast improvements to the physical security infrastructure must be made to include permanent fencing"
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Taliban offers of amnesty are not sincere. Please don't report them as if they are.
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No matter what party you are a member of (and I am a member of neither), can we all agree that it is shameful and unacceptable for the commander in chief to lie about American casualties?
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Before Moeed had this job, I was editing a submission of his to
@WarOnTheRocks
in which he discussed the Mumbai attacks (2008) but refused to admit any link between LeT and the Pakistani state. This article did not end up in WOTR and we never worked with him again.
Every sentence in the conclusion of Pakistani National Security Advisor Moeed Yusuf’s essay on
#Afghanistan
in
@ForeignAffairs
is either a half-truth or a flat out falsehood.
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In this article, I call for President Biden to reverse course on America's ruinous support for Israel's assault on Gaza.
Netanyahu has led his country into a dead-end, Gazans are enduring a horror show, and America should not be enabling him any longer.
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Hey
@Facebook
: why is Alex Jones livestreaming on your website from DC right now blaming the violence on antifa provocateurs and spreading election misinformation?
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Very little GOP attention seems focused on the very violent intentions and plans of the insurrectionists. They planned to take hostages and murder people.
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I support Israel's right to exist and to defend itself and its people, but my support does not extend to constructs that can justify war crimes, as Israeli President Herzog proposes below. The myth of collective responsibility ought to be rejected by Washington *today* with both
Israel's president is denying the concept of innocent civilians, on the brink of a major military offensive. A very bad sign.
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Maybe I'm just old fashioned but it would be nice if journalists didn't uncritically transmit Hamas claims and instead take the time to do some investigation and, well, journalism
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I particularly enjoyed speaking with Defense Minister Reznikov and Brig. Gen. Viktor Khorenko, the commander of Ukrainian Special Operations Forces.
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How is the war actually unfolding? Why has Russia seemingly stumbled in the first few days of its invasion? Does this mean Ukraine can hold out?
Fresh podcast with
@KofmanMichael
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@Yair_Rosenberg
@josh_weinberg
Yair, I watched the whole thing and it's not taken out of context. He says it clearly. He also says Israel will abide by international law. That doesn't mean the statement is out of context. It means he is contradicting himself
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I have bad news for you. The NATO website uses "expansion" too, in a value neutral way just as I do.
Turns out it means "the action of growing larger"
@EvansRyan202
There is no such a thing as a NATO expansion, just a series of membership applications by independent sovereign nations expressing the free will of their respective populations. Using the term expansion is misleading, it sounds like NATO HQ has a master plan of taking over.
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I find it troubling that so many people - from politicians to scholars to activists - seem so eager to convince us that World War III has somehow already started. If you have a public platform, please be more responsible. And if you think this tweet is about you, it probably is.
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A not inconsiderable Venn overlap between those who love this argument and those who helped lead the charge on Jan 6.
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"He died broke, virtually homeless and medicated with heavy antipsychotic drugs in an adult foster care center near Kalamazoo, Mich., on Nov. 19 at age 42, as his friends and family scrambled to find him mental health care."
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The pandemic is not a black swan event. It was foreseeable and foreseen
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Yes, why should Germany pick sides between China, a country actively perpetuating a genocide, and the United States, its ally for seven decades?
With commendable clarity Merkel says Europe should not pick sides between the US and China. This is the EU as the non aligned power in the new strategic rivalry. Cold hearted realism or short termism on stilts? Either way: **Biden Has a Europe Problem**
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Calling Greenwald a useful idiot gives him a pass. He knows *exactly* what he is doing
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Anyway we should probably do a
@WarOnTheRocks
podcast hashing all this out. I'm sure it won't be hard to find people to argue both sides
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Looks like the commander of Ukrainian forces is going to be held responsible for the mistakes of a president who made feckless and foolish military decisions over the general's head throughout the entirety of 2023. This does not bode well for Ukraine
I’m told by Ukrainian govt source that reports of the firing of top general Valery Zaluzhny look to be true. We await confirmation by presidential order - but this appears to be a done deal.
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For those vocal few of you reading my use of "expansion" (I guess rather than enlargement?) as me arguing this was American bullying or not a sovereign decision of these countries or I'm a Putinist stooge or whatever...grow up
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I'd like to remind you all of something very basic and fundamental that too many forget or prefer to ignore: Like most terrorist organizations, Hamas' strategy is to provoke Israeli military responses that harm the broader Palestinian population. To bring about widespread
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It's depressing to see one of the most prominent foreign policy experts in the US perpetuate one of the most misleading & outright silly comparisons in our field: that staying in Afghanistan would have been akin to staying in Japan, South Korea, or Germany. This is malpractice
The alternative to withdrawal from Afghanistan was not “endless occupation” but open-ended presence. Occupation is imposed, presence invited. Unless you think we are occupying Japan, Germany, & South Korea. And yes, withdrawal was the problem.
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This will be an unpopular opinion but here it goes: The discovery of classified docs in Biden's de facto possession is not a good look, and while it doesn't - at this point - seem as bad as Trump case, the knee-jerk defenses of Biden before we know more aren't a good look either
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Just thinking about the time in 2010 when an allied officer yelled at me for recommending in a report draft that we put out IO that takes advantage of the fact that most Afghans hate Pakistan and Pakistan was helping the Taliban. I was yelled at because "Pakistan is an ally."
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As you watch your fantasy dragon sex show tonight and you reach for your phone, ask yourself: Does the world really need to read my half-baked reaction to a scene in said fantasy dragon sex show?
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By sometime next week, this article will be the most read we've ever published
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Just as a reminder, to some people pointing it out to me this weekend: Yes, I am very aware that before the invasion I underestimated the Ukrainian military and overestimated the Russian military.
I haven't tried to hide that. I was wrong.
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Folks, if you think that all Ukraine needs is some Polish MiGs to win this war or change the outcome in a significant way, I have some bad news for you.
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I am so struck by this line: "We are not used to failure at State."
Really? Or do you just not know how to recognize it?
NEW: State Dept. officials open up to us about how the strain and chaos of the Afghan evac. 'broke' them psychologically
“We’re not used to failure at State, and in every single possible circumstance, it was failure.”
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Some news: After nearly six years as editor-in-chief of
@WarOnTheRocks
, I will be stepping out of that role to focus on executive responsibilities as we continue to grow and expand our activities. Who is going to step up and be our new EIC?
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Shorter McMaster: Shame on you, America, for being tired of sending your military on fruitless, bloody, endless, and family-destroying campaigns that never end
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"Contrary to what so many in the commentariat seem to believe, a no-fly zone is not a military half-measure. It is a combat operation designed to deprive the enemy of its airpower, and it involves direct and sustained fighting."
@WarOnTheRocks
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Time for the rest European NATO members to follow this example
BREAKING:
Poland’s military spending in 2024 will amount to 4.2% of GDP.
The military will receive USD 40 billion, of which 56% will be allocated for equipment modernization and purchases of new weapons systems.
🇵🇱
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I have reluctantly concluded that the Biden administration isn't even close to serious about naval power. This means one of a few things:
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Our very own
@KofmanMichael
&
@RALee85
recorded this episode of the Russia Contingency in Ukraine while on a research trip. We are making Pt 1 available for free on the WOTR feed. To listen to Pt 2, become member
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We were well taken care of by various Ukrainian units and friends. We visited Kyiv, Odessa, Mykoliav, Kryvy Rih, Irpin, and Bucha, as well as recently liberated areas in Kherson Oblast. We covered almost 800 miles, not counting the long journey from and back to Poland.
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Personally, I'm content for Russia to show the world that it wanted to free a rogue arms dealer and war criminal, and that it was content to hold an innocent athlete hostage to do it.
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I don't know if anyone can see this because my account still shows me at zero followers but my account was "permanently suspended" almost a week ago with no notice and explanation. After appealing and being asked to confirm my identity, my account was restored
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I am going to tell you the most common things I write in response to pitches and follow-on correspondence. I'm doing this to help prospective authors, not to mock anyone. I'm not subtweeting anyone. We send emails that contain the following multiple times a day, every single day:
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Netanyahu is Mr. October 6.
He was happy to keep Hamas in power in Gaza to de-legitimize the Palestinian national cause (this was and remains an open talking point on the Israeli right), falsely thinking he could sufficiently tame Hamas. He couldn't and Israel got the brutal
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This interview got a lot of attention. I have an interest in the topic of British power, having lived, studied, and worked in London and then worked alongside British troops in Helmand. So, I have some thoughts…
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At
@WaronTheRocks
, we will have some podcasts and articles with impressions/findings (much of it free & ungated, some of it for members only).
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Archduke Franz Ferdinand, in February 1913, cautioning the Hapsburg elite against war
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I proudly raise my hand.
Raise your hand if you want this plane landing in your town?
America paid unimaginable costs in Afghanistan because of uniparty globalists who dominated the Bush & Obama administrations.
No more…
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I'm a little more preoccupied by the standoff between two nuclear powers than the Cohen hearing, but that's just me
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I have an exciting announcement to make. After a competitive search process,
@WarontheRocks
has a new editor-in-chief: Rebecca Zimmerman (
@_rebeccaz
) starts in a couple weeks. Here is her bio:
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The Hamas attackers kidnapped, raped, and killed civilians, including women & children. It's just been reported that they beheaded Israeli babies. Yes, you read that right.
I've seen many "clever" posts here & other platforms on "decolonization" like this screenshot. The next
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The least convincing argument that a crisis or war won't happen:
"X won't be that dumb."
"Y isn't stupid."
Anyone with a casual familiarity with history should treat these claims (and the comfort they are meant to induce) with aggressive skepticism.
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I am glad there is outrage over the Navalny poisoning and internationally coordinated calls for justice. Too bad there isn't half as much outrage and international coordination about China's Uighur genocide
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Mark hasn't been this excited since he helped kill the nuclear deal
We are “locked and loaded” — that’s a pretty clear warning about what’s coming next.
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I know you're clamoring for a Ukraine
@WarOnTheRocks
podcast episode but
@KofmanMichael
and I are not in the same city at the same time for another week, and that show is always recorded in person. It will be a good one though!
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I'm still in awe of the quick rise/fall of CNN+ & reports that CNN sunk somewhere between $100m and $300m into this. As someone who runs a media business, I can't help but think about the possibilities of what one could do successfully & powerfully with a small fraction of that
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I think there's another clear pattern we should remember: Putin has engaged in nuclear saber rattling almost routinely in the last seven or eight years and it's often a signal he is out of other ideas.
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In
@WarOnTheRocks
,
@Mike_Jacobson65
expressed the hope that France would send its self-propelled howitzers, the CAESAR II, to Ukr. Good to see it happening. He called it best howitzer in the world today alongside Sweden's Archer. Will Sweden join France?
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People with guns shouldn't be allowed in government buildings unless they are law enforcement on the job. Full stop
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Most interesting
"CIA’s Former Counterterrorism Chief for the Region: Afghanistan, Not An Intelligence Failure — Something Much Worse"
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My personal view is that Israel's military operation in Gaza is both strategically and morally unrecoverable. And it didn't have to be this way.
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With due respect to Amb Crocker, this is total fantasy. The status quo was a corrupt and predatory Afghan state losing ground to the Taliban every month.
“Biden’s decision to withdraw all U.S. forces destroyed an affordable status quo that could have lasted indefinitely at a minimum cost in blood and treasure,” writes Ryan Crocker.
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Anyway, this is the best article
@aaronstein1
and I have seen on Russian nuclear employment.
Kofman and Fink
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Something awful just happened. Details are trickling out. Don't be that think tank "expert" (who doesn't even study Afghanistan) rushing to tweet out some hollow play-by-play about events you don't understand. It's disgusting.
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Part of my discussion with Khorenko was recorded as a podcast episode. I think many of you will find it interesting and useful.
I'll be posting more videos and photos but mostly on my Instagram account, which you can find in my Twitter bio.
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My argument is that COIN failed in Afghanistan, America should not be engaged in nation-building in other countries, and you've been consistently wrong about Afghanistan because you've been an advocate of both COIN and nation-building for many, many years.
1/2. I wrote that COIN success was localized and not lasting. I agree about “predatory and corrupt governance.” I really don’t see a big difference in our analysis. What is your argument anyway? That COIN is useless and should never be employed?
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This is not a good sign
"You have to understand, there are no innocent people in the Gaza Strip." - Avigdor Liberman, 2018
#BREAKING
: Israel's unity government part 2:
@AvigdorLiberman
will join the government and the security cabinet
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While many important things can be learned and understood about the war in Ukraine from a distance, sometimes there's no replacement for a candid face to face conversation, or seeing the ground that has been fought over in person
The four of us are grateful for this opportunity.
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Let's pause to note that the former head of Britain’s diplomatic service seems to have absolutely no idea what soft power means.
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"More people have died [of COVID-19] in the United States over five hours on Dec. 3 than have died of the disease in South Korea overall."
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America in the Middle East
This is the one.
The internet is over.
Shut it all down. This wins.
These people vote...
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I'd love it if all of you - left, right, and in between - could save your takes on what the Mueller report does and does not say, does and does not prove, and did and did not accomplish until we've actually seen it. Thanks
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