Joe Cirincione
@Cirincione
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NatSec analyst. Member @CFR_org . Fmr Pres. @plough_shares ; VP @amprog ; Dir. @CarnegieEndow ; staff @HASCDemocrats . Subscribe at:
Washington, DC
Joined March 2009
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Last Seen Profiles
Pinned Tweet
I’ve started a newsletter to share my thoughts on our national security threats in this polycrisis era. Which policies work? Which clearly do not? Who decides?
If you like what you see, please subscribe. It is completely free.
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Just so I get this straight: Trump is sending 2,000 more troops to protect the Saudi royal family and pulling troops protecting the stateless Kurds. He has major financial interests in Saudi Arabia and Turkey and none in Kurdish territories. Do I have that right?
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For months,
@nytimes
put stories of Hillary Clinton’s email on its front pages. The final investigative report clearing all of wrongdoing? That is on page 16 today.
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This is, without a doubt, the most uninformed, imbecilic, toady, poorly-written, categorically untrue statement I have ever seen from a president of the United States. A complete disgrace.
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.
@maddow
is the most watched show in all of cable news and now in the top 20 of most watched shows on all of TV. Seems like the truth will win out, after all.
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I've done lots of interviews on the right and left. Never has the host weaponized the interview to attack me & encourage their supporters to post hundreds of insults and smears without correction. Don't make my mistake. Never go on
@BadFaithPod
with
@briebriejoy
.
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Just read transcript of the State Department briefing on the Suleimani killing. Could not believe the arrogance of the State officials. Insulting reporters, refusing to answer direct questions. They did not provide one iota of evidence to back up their claims of imminent attack.
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In his remarks, Jake Sullivan says
@JoeBiden
tasked them to "reimagine national security" to include "the pandemic, the economic crisis, the climate crisis, technological disruptions, threats to democracy, racial injustice and inequality in all forms." 💯
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🧵 Like me, you may have noticed the sudden influx of inflammatory, anti-Ukraine tweets over the past few months, often generated by people with hundreds of thousands of followers but little foreign policy experience. I couldn’t understand their attacks on experts, until now.
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Let me get this straight. Trump knew DOJ was to indict 12 Russian officials & he still went to Europe & attacked NATO? Still allowed House attack hearing on FBI? Still called the investigation a “rigged witch hunt”? And will still meet with the man who ordered the thefts?
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Let’s take a breath. It’s possible nuclear documents were just mixed up in Trump’s papers. And many nuclear papers are over-classified.
BUT no other former president has ever stolen nuclear documents and refused to give them back. People go to Leavenworth for crimes like this.
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We are in an all-hands-on-deck national security crisis. It is essential that Republicans in the Senate lift their holds on all national security officials. Some have been held up for months. We need them on station NOW.
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The best article I’ve read on Netanyahu’s massive intelligence failure. I’ve “gifted” the article so you can read it for free.
“Netanyahu and radical members of his cabinet derided [warnings from military] officials as part of the protest movement.”
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One of the less reported aspects of Grenell’s placement as acting DNI is his demand to see all the “raw intelligence” behind the assessment that Russia is working to sabotage US elections. This has serious national security implications. 1/3
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I don’t want to be alarmist, but the State Department and the NSC seem to be steadily building a case for war with Iran. The fact that so few are paying attention to this campaign does not meant that it is not serious.
Just a couple of days ago, the U.S. unveiled evidence of the Iranian regime’s ongoing missile development and proliferation. Today, the regime test-fired another ballistic missile capable of reaching parts of Europe and anywhere in the Mideast. The risk of escalation is growing.
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A colleague, seeing the recent attacks on me, warned that trying to engage them “with a genuine, good faith intellectual approach usually leads to disaster.” They don’t care about policy, he said. They have “the sole objective of maximizing nihilist engagement on Twitter.”
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.
@AP
is now confirming the details of what I reported two days ago. I said that Europeans "offered over a dozen ways to 'fix' the agreement to Trump's liking. He rejected all of them." He never seriously considered "fixing" the deal.
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There is a pro-Putin axis developing in America. And it’s no accident.
@djrothkopf
details Putin’s influence in the MAGA GOP. It also runs through the Tech Bros, libertarians and into the peace movements. Some are consciously allying, some duped.
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He sent me
@Noahpinion
' s illuminating essay on the "Chaos Ladder.” Early in the war, Noah Smith identified the different strands of the pro-Putin narratives that were then emerging on Twitter and explained their motives.
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WOW. You have to watch this.
@JoeBiden
is on fire.
President Biden condemns defense of Capitol riot in Pennsylvania speech: "Don't tell me you support law enforcement if you won't condemn what happened on [January] 6th."
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Donald Trump started this. The best way to end it is not to respond. If Trump launches new attacks, this crisis will spiral into full-scale war.
#NoWarWithlran
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Trump does not have a serious legal team.
He does not have a serious national security team.
He does not have a serious economic team.
He does not have a serious domestic team.
The control rods are being removed from the reactor. This thing is going critical.
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This is one of the most powerful ads I have ever seen. It is one of the honors of my life to know
@GenMhayden
and to have benefitted from his analysis, even when we have disagreed.
I urge you to benefit from his analysis here:
NEW AD: Former Director of the CIA under Bush
@GenMhayden
: "If there is another term for Trump, I don't know what happens to America."
He's supporting
@JoeBiden
.
Watch his moving testimonial.
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People who try to have fact-based debates on policy cannot possibly productively engage with these nihilists, or hope that the exchange will clarify the issues. Policy and issues aren’t the point with them. It’s chaos that generates clicks; controversy that drives engagement.
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Some, he said are truly pro-Putin, like the MAGA GOP. Others seem to favor the world view of Game of Thrones villain Littlefinger, who argued that “Chaos is the ladder.” Anything that disrupts "the stability of the current regime...creates space to move up in the world.”
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Sadly, for me it is yet another way that Twitter, for all the good connections it facilitates, has done grave damage to our national security debates. It is one more reason why quitting this platform may be the most rational decision one can make about Twitter. END
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Now, in addition, we have an influx of nihilists, people who aren’t arguing for a specific policy but simply want to generate controversy that they can monetize. They want to drive people to follow them and subscribe to their Substack, YouTube, etc.
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Why is
@CNN
interviewing the fake expert Sebastian Gorka as if he actually knew something about national security ?
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John Bolton is a nuclear arms agreement hitman. Among his kills:
Agreed Framework with DPRK
ABM Treaty
JCPOA with Iran
INF Treaty
We – and the world – are less safe for it
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For the first time since the end of World War I, we have a president who doesn’t see himself as part of the West, let alone a leader of the alliance.
World leaders are walking shoulder to shoulder along the Champs Elysses but Trump arrived separately and isn’t participating in this.
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That's why you never see these Twitter nihilists with opeds in major papers or articles in Foreign Policy or other journals. There's no money in that. For them, it’s all about social media, all about marketing. Build the brand.
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Worse, raw intel will include sources and methods. Grenell will pass that to Trump who could share it with the Russians. Cambone never would have shared intel with our enemies, but Trump and Grenell don’t see Russia as an adversary, but an ally. 3/3
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You don’t have to agree with his essay completely (I’m still thinking about it) to recognize the validity of his argument that some may fear that a Ukraine victory will be bad for their cause to topple the existing national security paradigm.
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The
#s
of warheads on US subs and our ASW capabilities are among our most highly classified secrets. I held Top Secret/SCI clearances in government but never saw this info. Trump giving them to a foreign national - even an ally - it is a major breach.
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Has any one else noticed the irony of Nikki Haley denouncing the Russian “disinformation machine” on Syria when the Trump disinformation machine is using exactly the same tactics on Comey?
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Exactly right. We did not invade Iraq because of “bad intel” but because of the Cheney-Rumsfeld manipulation of the intel.
Trump says he doesn't trust the IC on Iran because they were wrong on Iraq. But the lesson of Iraq isn't that the IC is always wrong: it's that the White House shouldn't distort evidence and pressure the IC to support its policy. This is exactly what Trump is now doing on Iran.
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There are only four countries in the world who refuse to participate in the work of the UN Human Rights Council: Eritrea, Iran, North Korea and, now, the United States.
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You have to understand how completely untrue this is. The global & expert consensus is completely the opposite.
Tillerson on Iran=>"You can almost start the countdown clock as to when they will start their nuclear capability"!
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As
#coronavirus
surges, 130 lawmakers press as top priority...purchasing 98 F-35 fighters in Pentagon funding bill, 19 more than requested, reports
@connorobrienNH
. For cost of just one, we could buy 2,200 ventilators ($50K/each).
Imagine ventilators lined up instead of planes.
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I love this shirt that my neighbor
@mwhamiltonian
gave me. It looks like a holy icon but it’s Ukraine’s patron saint, St. Olga, holding a Javelin. Wearing it today ion my walk about town
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I just watched the President-elect in his first post-election speech. Unlike anything we have ever seen. You should be afraid, very afraid.
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Until this week, I had not heard of
#NAFO
. Now, I am in awe. We need you on that wall. 🙏
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Pulling out of an accord that had rolled back and contained Iran's nuclear program may be the worst blunder of Trump's presidency. There is no "better deal." Iran has more influence, not less. Anti-US sentiment growing. Everything has gotten worse since the US left the deal.
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I've learned a lot about this in the past couple of weeks. It explains a lot. But I've learned it from the good people on this platform who have taken the time to educate me. I would love to hear more from those who understand this phenomenon better than I.
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National Security Advisor
@robertcobrien
told
@margbrennan
@FaceTheNation
this morning that he’s met with the Russians and they have committed to not interfere in the US elections.
I feel so much better.
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I have resigned as a Distinguished Non-Resident Fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft over the institute’s position on the Ukraine War.
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Just saw
@stevebenen
on
@Maddow
. Pow! I’ve gotta get this book. He’s exactly right. Trump and the GOP are “post-policy.” They want power, not solutions. This explains perfectly what they’re doing on national security and nuclear policy, in particular. It’s a deep con.
Tonight, I'll be on with
@maddow
, talking about my new book, which goes on sale tomorrow:
The Impostors: How Republicans Quit Governing and Seized American Politics
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Here is the real reason GOP Senators are angry at
@RepAdamSchiff
.
“I have to say this,” Mr. Inhofe told reporters Friday morning in the Capitol. “Schiff is very, very effective.”
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I have been doing national security in Washington for over 35 years. I have never seen anything like this.
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If you’re nervous tonight, you’re paying attention. Rarely have we faced a serious domestic crisis & a serious nuclear crisis at the same time, with the government in such disarray.
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Has anyone else noticed that Donald Trump has stopped working? For weeks, he’s had little or nothing on his schedule. Today, for example, his entire schedule is “intelligence briefing.” So far this week, the only other appointment was lunch with Pence. Nothing else.
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1. Welcome to the new nuclear arms race. Putin announces 4 new nuclear weapons to answer the 3 new nuclear weapons US announced last month. This will not end well.
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This article is part of a coordinated attack against
@IlhanMN
and
@RashidaTlaib
under the pretext of fighting anti-semitism. It must be resisted and exposed for what it is: racist, misogynist, partisan politics.
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.
@tedlieu
is a national security patriot: “Today, I voted against expanding the U.S. nuclear arsenal because I could not vote for final passage of a bill that would make nuclear war easier." We need more like him.
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If you have a good analysis to share, please send it along. If all you have are insults, please keep them to yourself. And if you're just trying to craft the perfect put down that will generate more followers...well, you're just proving my point.
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CNN reports that the IDF and settlers have killed over 450 Palestinians in the West Bank since the extreme right Netanyahu government came to power this year.
At least 100 of them are children. Two more were slain today.
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This is insanity. The only way to kill 10,000,000 in ten days is to nuclear carpet bomb Afghanistan. Trump actually says that he has a plan to do that but “I don’t want to.” This is a level of amorality and unreality that even Nixon’s Vietnam slaughter never touched.
WATCH: President Trump says that he could win the 18-year Afghan War in 10 days, because he has plans that could wipe Afghanistan off the face of the Earth and kill 10,000,000 people, but "I don't want to go that route."
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I have to say this. I am very disappointed at many of my Washington colleagues who take a “on the one hand...” approach to Israel’s assassination of an Iranian scientist. Are that that afraid of being on the “wrong side”? Why do they fear condemning terrorism when done by Israel?
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Tonight,
@POTUS
made strong, solid points on Putin's nuclear threats. He fully understands the stakes. He warned: “I don't think there's any such thing as the ability to easily (use) a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon.”
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This is the tactic Steve Cambone used in the run up to the Iraq War when Cheney and Rumsfeld installed him in DOD to set up their own intel operation. He then cherry-picked raw, unvetted data to “prove” Saddam had WMD. He bypassed the usual intel community joint assessments. 2/3
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This is truly terrific. Not just because
@harrisonjaime
is a real person with a unifying message. But because you can hear how hollow
@LindseyGrahamSC
sounds when he’s not amplified on a cable news stage. This will make you feel good about our potential future.
Question about bipartisanship.
@LindseyGraham
proceeds to call Democrats “nuts” and fear-monger.
Watch
@HarrisonJaime
absolutely destroy Senator Graham on his divisive answer and compare it to teaching a 6-year-old.
This is most powerful answer of the night.
#SCDebate
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This may be the tweet that sinks the Haspel nomination. The president is expressly embracing torture and says Haspel will implement his torture orders. He turns this from a past issue into a future policy.
My highly respected nominee for CIA Director, Gina Haspel, has come under fire because she was too tough on Terrorists. Think of that, in these very dangerous times, we have the most qualified person, a woman, who Democrats want OUT because she is too tough on terror. Win Gina!
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“Somethings happened to the Republican Party,”
@ChrisMurphyCT
tells
@jaketapper
@CNN
. “They’ve decided to abandon democracy. They’re no longer defending the right of the people to choose who should be president.”
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The Washington think tank world has been noticeably silent on the Kashoggi murder. It’s time for them to examine the Saudi and UAE money flowing into these institutions and how it compromises their independence.
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“Intelligence and military officials in Europe as well as in the United States said that over the past year, most aggressive moves have originated not in Tehran but in Washington — where Bolton has prodded Trump into backing Iran into a corner.”
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I am almost speechless. But must point out:
- There is no NATO “fee.” It is a goal for each member to spend that much on defense as a percentage of GDP
- Trade with Russia (or China) does not disqualify any nation as a US ally. All our allies trade with them, as do we.
Germany pays Russia billions of dollars a year for Energy, and we are supposed to protect Germany from Russia. What’s that all about? Also, Germany is very delinquent in their 2% fee to NATO. We are therefore moving some troops out of Germany!
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Harvard’s
@russia_matters
has just published my new analysis of why those who blame America for Putin’s brutal war are dead wrong. Please let me know what you think.
What’s Missing from Mearsheimer’s Analysis of the Ukraine War
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.
@elonmusk
’s path of destruction through
@Twitter
now threatens
@Tesla
, too. That hurts all investors and Tesla owners like me. I explain in a new article for
@thedailybeast
. 👇
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Reporters have been letting Trump and his cronies off the hook for far too long.
THIS is real journalism. Ask hardhitting questions. Then ask them again. Press for answers. The public deserves it.
Well done,
@mehdirhasan
So if you enjoyed the earlier Erik Prince
@AJHeadtoHead
clip, here's the latest 1 - me asking him why he didn't mention his secret Trump Tower meeting while under oath to Congress. His reply... :-)
I wrote why it's a big deal here:
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I told
@latimes
“Donald Trump walking out of Ronald Reagan’s treaty is a gift to Vladimir Putin. It doesn’t fix the problem. It makes it worse.”
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What the hell?! Trump is spying on US citizens? “Getting dirt” on former officials who differ with his policies? This is outrageous. Should jump to top of the list of Trump’s current scandals.
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“The seeds of these dangers were planted by Donald Trump himself on May 8, 2018 — the day he tore up the Iran nuclear deal, against the advice of his own top national security advisors. The day he turned his back on our closest European allies,” says
@JoeBiden
today
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The fact that there is so little press comment about this is disturbing. We have become numb to the every-day corruption of our government. Has he even excused himself from decisions involving Boeing? Promised not to work for them when he leaves?
At midnight, the military-industrial complex about which Dwight Eisenhower warned 58 years ago will be fully realized. A 31-year employee of Boeing—who joined Trump’s team with no military or foreign policy experience—will take charge of the Pentagon.
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Worst Secretary of State in American History.
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65,000 dead in less than two months. Perhaps we should be seeing fewer photos of Trump and more of his victims.
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This is the best single article I’ve seen on the lies that killed hundreds of thousands and cost us trillions. Thank you,
@dylanmatt
(with great documentation from
@DavidCornDC
). via
@voxdotcom
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@SecPompeo
John Bolton killed Ronald Reagan’s treaty. It is a gift to Putin. When some one breaks the law, you don’t repeal the law. We rewarded Russia’s violation by removing the limitation. Putin has a free hand to build and deploy as many missiles as he wants.
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Did Trump seriously think he could bully
@SpeakerPelosi
? He has no idea who he's dealing with.
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And our foreign policy is conducted in secret. No State Dept. briefings; troops deployed without public announcement or declared strategy.
POTUS hasn't given an interview in weeks, a full press conference in months. Daily briefing can't be recorded. Senate writing bill in secret
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Reminder that Trump has absolute control over an immense nuclear arsenal. He can destroy within minutes all humanity created over millennia.
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Every nuclear security expert I know thinks this is either a stunt, hysterics or just plain dumb.
I can’t retweet than all!
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Can I pause for just a moment to talk about my cat? My daughter found her on the streets in college and called her “Razor Claws Death Magnet.” She left her with us “for a while” 17 years ago. She died yesterday. I can’t believe how much I miss her.
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I've no idea what this guy is talking about; never heard of this group. A classic example of how pro-Putin conservatives flood social media with smears, disinformation, whataboutism and outright lies. The goal? Make it impossible to know the truth. And break support for Ukraine.
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The answer is no. Trump does not need Mattis - or Tillerson or Kelly or McMaster - to launch nuclear war. None of the “axis of adults” are required nor can they stop him. And, yes, this is a problem.
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Struck by how the network nightly news last night covered up for Trump. Rather then openly discuss and display his bizarre speech, they ran with the “emergency” and just showed clips that made him look forceful. Most American still get their news this way. Trumps counts on this.
After that rambling incoherency in the Rose Garden today, anyone else curious to see a first full medical exam of Trump, including testing for drug levels?
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This is not a game. This is not a reality show. This is a clear and present danger. We should all be deeply worried by this new tweet.
North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un just stated that the “Nuclear Button is on his desk at all times.” Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!
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People certainly celebrated when Obama won. People were thrilled when Clinton won. But it wasn't like this.
This feels like a nation that has been liberated. This feels like opening a door on a new era.
The relief is palpable. The hopes are high.
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I am just one of many who believe that Musk is destroying Tesla along with Twitter.
Elon Musk is fueling the Twitter fire and using Tesla as his personal ATM, experts say. Here are 5 criticisms of the CEO from the past week alone
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A powerful, heart-felt statement from one of the most qualified candidates for Senate in the nation. If you don’t know about
@AmyMcGrathKY
, now would be a good time to get acquainted.
I’m running to replace Mitch McConnell in the U.S. Senate. Everything that’s wrong with Washington had to start somewhere—it started with him. With your help, we can defeat Mitch and defend democracy. Join us:
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Wow. Iran’s arch-enemy, the UAE, concludes a “state actor” was behind the oil tanker attacks - but says there is no evidence that it was Iran. Everyone should recalibrate their assumptions.
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Thank you,
@IlhanMN
. Why are we spending so much on endless wars and not enough on our own people?
@TheDailyShow
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@IlhanMN
Exactly right. This is a war crisis created by Trump, manipulated by Bolton and fanned by Pompeo.
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There’s a wave building.
BREAKING: Reps. Heck, Kilmer, Schrier and Del Bene (all from the state of Washington) announce their support of an impeachment inquiry
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KellyAnne Conway just claimed
@CNN
that
@AdamSchiffCA
"definitely doesn't have a security clearance." Really? Might want to check that.
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.
@JohnKerry
says Trump “outright lied” about the Iran anti-nuclear deal today and placed US in grave peril based on these lies. Powerful
@msnbc
interview with
@Lawrence
. A model of how one should respond to his campaign to manipulate us into a new war of choice.
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@atomicbell
As
@JohnJHarwood
just said
@CNNSitRoom
“Let’s be honest, the president - in the middle of a deadly pandemic - is functioning at the level of a child. And not even a child who is connected to reality.”
He alone can launch a nuclear war whenever he wants. No one can stop him.
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Just a reminder, Trump's national security advisor is intimately linked to the Russian spy who just pleaded guilty.
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I honestly don’t think that Trump realizes that this has been done before, that this has taken place before. Just not by him. The right-wing of the GOP killed the previous efforts.
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