AnalystEgg
@AnalystEgg
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Mostly for finding and sharing charts. Markets / economics
Joined November 2020
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I saw a guy wearing a shooting sleeve to take one of the CFA exams
One of the Chinese engineers at the office is wearing a Nike shooting sleeve
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“He’s an 8 but he builds financial models with the most recent fiscal year on the left”
“He’s a 2”
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Julian Robertson in 2002: "I can't tell you the number of bright young people here at Tiger who said over the years that General Electric has the most flagrantly aggressive accounting they have ever seen. Nobody cared for years."
$GE
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Holiday season spending data looks strong so far.
Details below from Adobe/Salesforce/Mastercard. The National Retail Federation expects 3-4% y/y growth in retail spending (ex. autos/gas/restaurants). This would be consistent w/ YTD trends (~3-4%) but better than recent months.
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225x5 on back squat today 💪
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Tightest spread ever for a 10yr bond on new $PG issuance today: 0.37% (37bps) over the 10yr Treasury = 4.55% coupon on $750 million issuance
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How much should one tip movers? 3 guys / 2hrs
Already tipped my landlord and PM this month so I’m running low on funds :/
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People bullish on stocks today clearly weren’t around for the Central Bank of Mesopotamia’s hiking cycle in 300BC…..
Bofa has a chart of rates going back to **3000 B.C.**
Says rates are coming off "5000-year lows"
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Wow $M
Investor Group Launches $5.8 Billion Buyout Bid for Macy's -- WSJ
*Group's Proposal Values Macy's at $21 a Share, or $5.8B, Sources Say -- WSJ
*ARKHOUSE, BRIGADE CAPITAL SUBMITTED BID FOR MACY'S DEC.1: WSJ
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Operation was successful, thank you for the well wishes everyone!
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PHILIP MORRIS MAY REVISIT DEAL TALKS W/ ALTRIA: MORGAN STANLEY
$PM $MO
@lhamtil
@sinstockpapi
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Long day looking at screens at work, can’t wait to get home and relax by looking at different screens
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S&P 500 FCF yield (~4.8%) is below the yield-to-worst of BBB-rated corporate bonds (~5.2%)
10-yr's at ~3.2% whilst a lot of people are anchored to "reasonable" or "cheap" FCF yields of 4-6%. Doesn't seem so cheap to me anymore, even for a quality/compounder businesses
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Idea for food delivery companies to show margin improvement:
Pay drivers in stock and then adjust SBC out of your adj. EBITDA margins
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“X is already cash flow positive not including the cost of servicing debt. The company expects to reach that milestone even including debt by the back half of 2024”
💀
X's Linda Yaccarino met with bankers today and laid out the company's financial plan:
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Got into an Uber (at 3PM) and the driver is playing the Fred Again Boiler Room set from the tablet mounted on his dashboard
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
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Cool picture of my great grandmother in her speedboat (late 1930’s)
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@hfrcapital
But these are the names I want to own for 5-10 years…
*ignores 15yrs it took for Nasdaq to revisit 2000 levels*
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Imagine being the workout professional in charge of restructuring the South Park deal
Carlyle's credit group looking for a workout VP for their direct lending book
If you know anyone, check this out!
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Big news out today, WSJ reporting that $PARA has entered 30-day exclusive talks with Skydance Media and that $APO made a $26bn bid on Sunday (~55% implied upside to yday's closing price).
Stock was up ~15% and bonds were ~unchanged.
Anyone out there with views on the $PARA cap stack?
S&P just downgraded the co to BB+, likely invalidating change of control protections for bondholders. This would make a sale of the company much easier to finance as existing debt wouldn’t need to be refinanced
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College students in IB interviews:
*Ray Liotta voice*
As far back as I can remember, I always wanted to be an investment banker
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Two good charts from BAML on slowing income growth and spending from high-income consumers
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Our team has 30 billion years of combined experience investing in tech companies.
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@bucketshopcap
Unironically think private credit is probably taking many of the incremental dollars that might otherwise be going to HFs. Low-teens returns, ~similar liquidity profile and tax treatment, stronger marketing push from big alts shops
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I wonder if any Euro auto analysts on the sell-side have ever used ‘Beamer, Benz, or Bentley’ for a title on a note about German OEMs
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@junkbondinvest
If you’re comparing 70bps widening vs. 130bps tightening, of course it will be a skewed upside downside
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Dystopian thought:
Targeted advertising for assisted suicide facilities
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In London (staying in Chelsea) until Wednesday morning, any recommendations for fun things to do tonight/tomorrow night? Cool bars, live music, etc.
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@SirBaby6
In no particular order:
1) large debt load from SAB acq. that ultimately drove dividend cut
2) FX has been a major headwind as SAB deal skewed biz towards non-USD denominated revs/EBITDA while debt load was largely USD
3) core cash cow biz (N.America) has faced headwinds from…
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Some thoughts:
1) Curious to see how $KSS and $JWN trade tomorrow. Both have previously explored take-privates:
Nordstrom family offered $50/share back in 2018 (rejected by board) and $KSS explored a sale last yr.
$M shares have outperformed both significantly since YE19:
Wow $M
Investor Group Launches $5.8 Billion Buyout Bid for Macy's -- WSJ
*Group's Proposal Values Macy's at $21 a Share, or $5.8B, Sources Say -- WSJ
*ARKHOUSE, BRIGADE CAPITAL SUBMITTED BID FOR MACY'S DEC.1: WSJ
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Evolution of Vans sales growth trends, per Engaged Capital's activist presentation. CAGR'd in mid-/high-teens in FY10-FY20. Engaged estimates that Vans' segment margin has declined from >23% in FY20 to ~13% in FY23. $VFC
Full presentation:
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Lengthy note on Charter’s capital structure (collaboration between equity + credit analysts) published yesterday by GS, worth a read for equity folks looking at the name
$CHTR
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One of the best TikToks I have seen. Growing an army of 1.4 million frogs. The invasion has begun…
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@tangentstyle
My first firm (large asset manager) had a research system that went back to the 90s. Was able to go in and read original note on Amazon IPO, coverage of Lehman in ‘08, and some old Trump-backed high yield casino bonds deals. Very cool to see ppl’s real-time thinking
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For everyone asking - yes, this is real.
Many people have asked me to name the firm and I have to give the people what they want. The offending fund?
Deez Capital
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Fake news from Big Water
Exclusive: Aspartame, one of the world's most common artificial sweeteners, is set to be declared a possible carcinogen next month by a leading global health body, pitting it against the food industry and regulators
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Anyone out there with views on the $PARA cap stack?
S&P just downgraded the co to BB+, likely invalidating change of control protections for bondholders. This would make a sale of the company much easier to finance as existing debt wouldn’t need to be refinanced
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Adobe: U.S. e-commerce spend +7.5% y/y to a record $9.8bn on Black Friday. This growth is ahead of Adobe's prior expectations for both Cyber Week (+6.1% y/y) and the full holiday season (+4.8% y/y growth, accelerating vs. +3.5% last yr).
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A client of mine wants to play The Most Dangerous Game on their private island. If you are interesting in participating, please DM me with your college GPA, SAT score, and relevant deal experience.
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“Household Net worth at $151 trillion is as high as ever (5.5x nGDP). Within these balance sheet, liquid assets stand at $17.7 trillion, $4.4 trillion above pre-Covid baseline”
When thinking about US consumer demand, most Wall Street participants attach way too much importance to income and not enough to savings and taxes.
Modern consumption theory has evolved from the Keynesian static consumption function because ignores any positive effect of past…
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Sharing some charts/takeaways from Carlyle's monthly economic update. Focusing on charts/data sourced from Carlyle portfolio companies, which could offer some unique insights not found in public economic data. The following tweets cover the U.S., Europe, and China.
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Interesting theory from BlackRock: "The Fed may be relying on a job and growth relationship that has broken, in our view. Labor shortages have made firms reluctant to let workers go, even as demand slows and growth stagnates."
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Excellent write-up / thread on $GM / $F
My view is that these stocks are trading sardines at best (bad biz model, secular headwinds from electrification, poor FCF conversion, UAW contracts limit upside) but front-end finco bonds consistently offer good value (6-7% yld for $F )
We just published a report on $F and $GM discussing recent challenges, why the stocks have underperformed, and an analysis of valuation. A summary thread and full report below. Add your email on our site to get these reports directly.
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@kashyap286
@BadBeanieMan
“But they have no choice but to sell”
Why do they have to sell? They are a public co whose biggest asset was a stake in another public company (Alibaba) for a long time
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Putting all of this together, I continue to think many ppl underestimate the strength of the American consumer and their ability to continue to grow spending at a mid-single digit pace. This is underpinned by ~5% nominal income growth (h/t
@BillAckman
)
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We are living through the first ten minutes of a movie about an alien invasion
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The market is once again pricing in year-end Fed Funds at ~5.0%
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Paying Apple $299/month to store 10+yrs of memes saved to my phone that I’ll never look at again
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Subprime auto loan delinquencies have been rising but remain muted for prime borrowers
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5.9x net leverage and $6bn in debt that is mostly floating. Loan-to-value is >50% now with shares down >70% from mid-'21 peak. Bonds yield ~7.3%, in-line with BBs. Seems tight given the leverage profile and shrinking equity market cap ($5bn now, was ~$10-15bn until mid-'22)
$ELAN's floating rate debt in a high rate environment heavily rotating towards quality + weakening consumer companion animal spending could make for a nice short setup heading into the 3Q print. SI is very low at ~2% of S/O.
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Mastercard: U.S. retail sales (ex. autos) +2.5% y/y on Friday with e-commerce growing +8.5% and in-store sales +1.1%
(+) Jewelry, Apparel, Restaurants
(-) Department Stores, Furniture & Furnishings
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Key points from $MS:
1)New CEO at $PM had said abt potential deal w/$MO back in Jan.’20(while COO):”the chapter is closed but not the book”
2)More stable US tobacco industry vs. late-2019
3)$PM has been more acquisitive as of late
4)Valuation diff btwn the two improves accretion
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The Mundanity of Excellence, a great read with some universal lessons
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Two good charts from BlackRock on the composition of the IG/HY indices:
50% of the USD HY index trades below 300 spread (index avg. = 385bps)
37% of the USD IG index trades below 100 spread (index avg. = 120bps)
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@TaviCosta
Markets are forward looking. To judge valuations based on 2020 earnings is disingenuous
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Any recommended resources (substack/blog, podcast, interview, etc.) for learning about the alternative asset managers?
$BX $APO $KKR
Tagging some people I’ve seen post about these co’s:
@viggy_krishnan
@PrivateEyeCap
@Bonhoeffer_KDS
@FatBearCapital
@Cultivatewealth
@PythiaR
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@morganhousel
Japanification of China will become a bigger story over the next few years as China’s population is likely to begin shrinking in the next ~decade
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@valueterminal
Write nothing and live with a constant sense of anxiety that I’m forgetting something
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Some thoughts on $KSS
Interesting insider buy: new CEO (ex. CEO/Chair of $BURL) buys $2mm in stock at 52-week low (shares back to mid-2020 levels) after providing guidance earlier this month that was well below Street expectations and the company's LT guidance.
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Starting to think I picked the wrong career. I should have been a necromancer
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Good chart from GS on the active-to-passive and liquid-to-illiquid mix shifts in equity and fixed income markets over the last decade
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Imagine trying to stick it to hedge funds and instead holding the bag for management
"AMC senior executives have sold tens of millions of dollars worth of shares this year, benefiting from the investors’ lingering fervor."
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