caseywh
@vega_gang
Followers
4,714
Following
371
Media
151
Statuses
1,298
Finance, maths, stats, python, R... some trading.
Joined July 2020
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Luka
• 163579 Tweets
コロンブス
• 159176 Tweets
イーロン
• 130441 Tweets
#RejectFinanceBill2024
• 68511 Tweets
SNBT
• 61553 Tweets
Mrs. GREEN APPLE
• 47880 Tweets
ミセスのMV
• 35212 Tweets
カブさん
• 28580 Tweets
#れんれんおかえり
• 26107 Tweets
脊髄梗塞
• 23351 Tweets
公開停止
• 20682 Tweets
LINE Pay
• 20446 Tweets
下半身麻痺
• 20050 Tweets
規正法改正案
• 16996 Tweets
内閣支持16.4
• 16157 Tweets
Jandarma
• 14280 Tweets
ひろみちお兄さん
• 13626 Tweets
最低更新
• 13512 Tweets
郵便料金
• 11563 Tweets
The number of whiny “pro” traders on twitter re: $GME and wsb is hilarious. Your narratives of how wsb triggered the squeeze are wrong. This was a contrarian trade of a lifetime, discovered by a few incredibly intelligent people that wsb profited mightily from.
16
28
288
We also recognized the buildup of catalysts, Burry. Cohen. The most beautiful confluence of a turnaround story of epic proportions and “hurr durr blockbuster” big dumb money. The bulls were much smarter than the bears were in this one. Many millionaires were minted.
3
1
77
There is a good trading lesson in here. Trade the market you have, not what you think the market should be. I prefer to be the wsb chad meme with 10-20 baggers on CVNA than the fintwit edgelord screeching into the void about interest rates. Who do you want to be, anon?
$CVNA is a zero. Inventory heavy consumer business into a downturn that's hemorrhaging cash. The fact that this stock has done this over the past year is all the proof you need that the Fed has not done enough to tighten financial conditions.
151
71
904
5
4
80
Beta, CAPM, and Ape DD related to $AMC and $GME, the “If the market crashes then $AMC will moon!” discussion.
A thread about the gory details underneath the hood, and why muh negative beta is really meaningless.
3
7
73
I heard you guys like chart overlays 😂
1
5
72
Of course we knew the positioning. Of course we knew where the gamma would kick on. We knew approximately where the massive short positions could start to be liquidated. We knew the available shares and fees. We knew the underlying value and company narrative.
2
2
53
Not a bad trade. Caught the vol expansion and the delta. Long vol trader take many L's when it doesn't hit, but when it does, we're havin' Steak. This trade was the result of the brilliant minds that I work with, you know who you are. HAGW 👋
2
0
46
Cheeto and his followers going for 2 pts/day challenge?
5
0
41
@DavidGohr7
Yep. So it's okay for hedge funds to use cutthroat tactics to win but when wsb piles into a trade and gamma carries to valhalla it's "zOmG sEc rEgUlAte tHIs!@!"
4
0
38
imagine unironically making any trades based off of what this guy says... total clown show lol
3
0
33
seems to me that a foolproof sign that we are headed to
#recession
is when the white house starts a media campaign to explain that we aren’t in a recession
0
3
29
The $GME stonkers have now direct registered 17% of outstanding shares (h/t
@RodAlzmann
). The hypothetical moass scenario promises to be wildly entertaining to see them try to sell their shares. :kekorn:
9
0
29
hey
@discord
my account and server were taken down mistakenly, how can i get in touch with someone?
18
6
27
I structure my trade for 3 things:
1.Cheapest entry
downside
3.Maximum upside
The drivers of pnl will be vega and delta, so I want to be long those. I bought the August 15c, and also sold put-credit spread -10p/5p. I was able to take the trade a credit
1
0
28
@elCamisas
Power to the People. The number of dirty tricks to keep $GME price suppressed over the last 4-5 months to protect their short position.. it's time.
0
0
26
the biggest downside to twitter is not being able to discord emote people’s tweets
2
0
28
Kinda interesting how $NFLX delayed the last few episodes of Stranger Things until after the quarter closed... things that make you go hmmm
3
0
27
So what’s the lesson here? Garbage in, Garbage out. If you try to apply a formula to data that doesn’t have a relationship, you’ll get junk. If you trade on this kind of stuff well… you should probably stick to low-cost index funds.
3
0
25
you trade options? make this kind of thing second nature
1/
Get a cup of coffee.
In this thread, I'll walk you through 2 probability concepts: Standard Deviation (SD) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD).
This will give you insight into Fat Tails -- which are super useful in investing and in many other fields.
58
556
3K
2
3
26
some folks on twitter who charge for premium services shouldn't be speaking on leading others to financial ruin
1
0
25
Get two cups of coffee and read it twice, this is a brilliant thread
1/
Get a cup of coffee.
In this thread, we'll analyze the "Devil's Card Game".
This is a super useful thought exercise. It can teach us several key concepts in economics, probability, betting, hedging, investor/market psychology, etc.
106
1K
5K
0
2
23
Always remember, if you go looking for evidence to support your position, you will find it. Consider instead, construct your position based on the best evidence.
0
0
21
Disclaimer, I have no idea what this company does, and I do not care. It’s a de-spac, and so it’s on the radar of all of the meme squeeze subreddits and discords. Normally I don’t pay any mind, because these threads are full of gAmMa sQuEeZe nonsense and normally never work.
1
0
18
Alright $GME players... I said before that the Earnings for this quarter is going to be spicy. If you don't know the backstory u/Jeffamazon wrote it up nicely here:
7
0
17
Might be time for round 2??
1
3
18
Fast forward to Tuesday, all hell broke loose. We all spend so much time looking for trades that are profitable that once we get in one it’s hard to know when to exit. Each time I think it can't go higher, I take some off. Then I take the rest off on the way down if possible.
1
0
17
@TopStockAlerts1
imagine looking for the next $ATOS when you are still early for the first $ATOS
0
3
17
It would be such hilarious irony if $TSLA selling their $BTC at 30k kicked off all the liquidations.....
3
0
16
Around this time the options flow boys were also picking up deep ITM heavy call buying. Another clue. Previous squeezes showed this kind of activity. I don’t know why, whether it’s the folks who are heavy short hedging the market impact of their exit, or some sort of borrow arb..
1
0
15
@Ingo_NL
thanks, i feel like somehow this thread doesn't capture the amount of due diligence across many talented folks. I do not recommend trading solo, find a partner at least or a team who challenges you.
1
1
16
Really Ryan, tell me more? LOL
I’m sick of seeing failed executives make millions in risk free compensation while shareholders are left holding the bag
2K
5K
28K
1
0
16
He's right. Regressions are probably the most powerful tool in my toolbox, I use them all the time. I might go so far as to say if you are using anything fancier than regression trees there probably isn't anything there
1 textbook for theory, 1 for practical, this is practical. Regressions should be a key study area for you.
11
58
459
1
0
16
Son of a b*, -3.42 Beta! I guess I was wrong and if SPX crashes AMC will moon :sadpepe:. Or am I? The astute readers (the ones who have taken one semester of Stats) are saying that’s the worst fit of a regression that I’ve ever seen. And you’d be right, The R^2 is about 0.0172.
1
1
15
@quant_arb
it’s actually stupid the way it works. i hate trying to multi-index. i generally use the pivot method to do whatever i want to accomplish.
2
0
14
@bennpeifert
@CathieDWood
@ARKInvest
i think what she meant to say is it will take 30-50% returns per year for 6-12 years for
@ARKInvest
to get back to new highs
0
0
14
@bennpeifert
@jimcramer
it makes more sense if you envision Jim trying to remember what he had for lunch yesterday
0
0
14
@thebubbaaccount
This is the position i don’t understand. Can you articulate anything beyond hate and it’s a shit investment? I mean, this is objectively untrue. Remember, stock price reflects future expected returns (in a normal market)
4
0
13
The atm for August was trading at around 75% iv. Perfect, cheap. Now it's a race- will short holders withstand the massive borrow until the supply of shares are released? I'll bet a small $ against them all day.
1
0
12
Almost never fails, +31% Since shorts had this "dEaD tO rIgHtS"
this is the type of cope/confidence that makes me take the opposite trade
0
0
10
0
0
14
someone should maybe phone in a wellness check for Nayib Bukele, El Salvador $BTC cb is $47.5k :kekorn:
h/t
@Going2Disappear
0
0
13
@bennpeifert
cumulative loss 85.1%
I expect vix to be around 28. 30d RV% is around 24, typically vix is around 4 points higher than 30d rv. We don't have any information about the full strip of options prices, or even the skew, that could potentially help
0
0
13
the master called it
Bed, Bath, and Beyond $BBBY has formed the ultimate bearish technical indicator.
For those that don’t know about the Batman Bearish Divergence signal I highly recommend you read up on it. More details about it will be released in Master’s next newsletter.
17
9
179
1
0
13
@Codester1389
@james_budreau
@AMC_Apee
On the contrary dear Simian, it's you who have not done your DD. Beta is useful as a measure of systemic risk - not idiosyncratic risk. AMC represents almost entirely idiosyncratic risk therefore your negative beta is little more than an artefact of the math.
2
1
12
The part that caught our attention was that Ortex and other short squeeze trackers had the float wrong. Someone, bless their heart, reached out to the CFO to confirm the float: 700k.
1
0
12
Classic fintwit dumb take, use hindsight to argue against a sound investment approach and then ask for a subscription.. 🤡💀
Bill Gates would be worth $1 trillion if he still had his Microsoft shares.
Instead, he became friends with Warren Buffett and decided to diversify his portfolio.
He’s worth only $110 billion today.
422
489
7K
0
0
12
Argue about what should be, or make money on what is. The choice is yours, anon.
0
1
12
My bad, the $APE people have informed me that it was not a dilution. $AMC just went down 42% today all on its own.
The best part about the $APE / $AMC fiasco is that AMC is saying that it isn't dilutive.
1
0
7
2
0
12
This puts a timeline on the trade. I figured a few months it would take the SEC to process and approve everything, so I wanted to give myself enough time to capture a move should one happen.
1
0
10
uh, what?
*CBOE: ROUTING TO NYSE AMERICAN OPTIONS HAS BEEN SUSPENDED
76
133
600
2
2
11
I also looked at historical realized vol, and there isn’t much data since merger was in January, but it’s been relatively volatile around 200-250% by my estimate.
1
0
10
This means that the SI was actually around 400%. I don’t really trust Ortex so I ran p/c parity and it showed $6 of borrow on 6 month atm puts. Damn. 75% annualized.
1
0
10
@StrizziJ
i take more L's than W's.. but the thing about that is my W's are massive and my L's small
1
0
11
3
0
11
In stats speak (sorry for the non-ape here) it means that the number we have come up with is MEANINGLESS. Let’s review another example. This time instead of SPX and AMC, we’ll add SPX with AAPL and overlay the charts.
1
1
11
@StrizziJ
@RyansTrading_
@bennpeifert
Unbelievable how can so much free alpha just be given away on twitter
1
0
11
neat
1/15: Ever looked at an order book and been mesmerised by how it moves? Just me? A short thread about how displaying order books in a different way gives you a glance at what lies beneath.
164
862
5K
2
1
9
absolute legend, rip
1
0
10
@RyanOzzie
@AspirationsFat
assumes beginning of day mm's deltas are flat, then takes current oi + today's volume, applies some estimate of bto/sto (crude), walks bsm forward to the forecast date and recalculates deltas based on a range of underlying prices (horizontal axis)
1
0
10
a real one folks 👇
I put myself out there at the risk of ridicule.
If I lose, I get ultimate shame.
If I win, I oddly enough get more.
What keeps me going is knowing I help the real ones when I can.
Got many on board.
I love seeing us all win.
25
5
287
0
0
10