I think it needs explaining that although I see an elongated cycle it doesn't mean my analysis is right. The breadth and depth of macro/crypto analytics framework I've added since 2021 is massive and I'm happy with the probabilities currently but things can change... At GMI we

I wanted to give everyone something meaningful, a gift… This comes from Global Macro Investor (GMI) and a deep, long-running body of research developed by @RaoulGMI and myself. Many of you already know The Everything Code, which is our framework for understanding the macro

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Me, 1974.

Everyone is suddenly back to debating who to unfollow because this whole space has turned on itself yet again, so here is my take… I usually stop following accounts that pump out views when everything is going up and then disappear the moment things turn down, right when the

Utterly brutal crypto markets with relentless, rapid positions unwinding and rumours swirling after 10/10 of impaired market maker balance sheets leading to less liquidity and someone blowing up. It reminds me a lot of 2021 when in a 4 week period Bitcoin fell 56%, ETH -62% and

It's always great to exchange ideas with my friend @cburniske... This will give you a different perspective and help you stay sane. Enjoy!

you can rewatch the insults, madness and the alpha here...

Tough to argue its an AI bubble when everyones revenues keeps rising massively...the only bubble might be in VC funding, but thats Power Law for you. You have to have enough shots to hit goal and the AI model factors in many zeroes. Nothing to see yet, move on.

@RaoulGMI “I spammed him with dick butts and explained the fundamental maths of the universe (one dick = one but)” and then he backed off and said I’ll let you to it 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣😭😭😭😭

a good read as ever

you can rewatch the insults, madness and the alpha here...

hahaha...its true, I did say this on the live stream

Let the madness begin...

As expected, the groundwork is being laid to move liquidity operations from the Fed to the Treasury to allow more direct control over the funding of the debt and the rollover of it, using the banks as the conduit and the issuance of bills as the mechanism for liquidity

This year has tested everyone. The ones who last don’t vanish, they show up! Join us in Miami for The Crypto Gathering: three days of alpha, connections, and real conversation. Jan 22–24 | Miami 🌴 Tickets in the comment section

See you there!

These are all solid points.   Let’s take it one step further…   Think back to the 2016 to 2017 cycle. Bitcoin took a 20% hit, two 30% hits, one 35% hit, and three separate 40% flushes. It was relentless. Yet the market still delivered a 46x move. The human mind conveniently

I wanted to put the current sell off in perspective... BTC corrected in 2024 -32%, 2025 -32% and right now is around -28%. This is normal. You've lived it before. SOL corrected -47%, -67% and currently -48%. Sui corrected -69% in 2023, -79% in 2024, -68% in 2025 and -64%

I know many of you are scared, worried you fucked it up and think you'll never make it. You need to follow the DFTU rules. You need to extend your time horizon and levels of patience. You are clearly not doing that. Every correction is an existential drama to you. That is a

I think this week the Feds hand will be forced to tweak the plumbing to avoid a month end and year end funding crisis. Crypto is currently trading like a stressed funding vehicle reflecting the broken plumbing, while stocks are cushioned by buybacks and performance chasing for

To be honest, I'm a bit confused ... the "AI is a bubble!" crowd have just witnessed their beloved "Value Investor in chief" top blasting this $3.3trn tech/AI stock....! Is it value or is it a bubble? Because it can't be both.