Nautilus Research
@NautilusCap
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A Research boutique providing institutional investors with insight for today's markets. Not investment advice. …
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Joined February 2014
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$nky
#nikkei225
- Gotta love fractals. Especially when objective evidence supports the validity of a potentially sustainable breakout.
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$SPX - SPX "Looks" terrible (H&S....), but then again it did on 9/30 - 10/1 2021 .....
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This chart made the rounds last week - so we figured we ought to share directly.
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#Dollar
-- Reminder, 16-year cycle has "captured" all major swings ........... next trough not until February 2025.
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Value / Growth --- Similarities to ~ 2000 ... update back by request.
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SPX - Full 4-year Presidential Election cycle seasonal tendency.
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DOW 100 vs. ~10 year fractal. Lots of license and not meant to be too leading -- just saying. While we typically base our narratives on fusions of multi-factor objective measures, one can't help but notice the occasional "whacky" image that helps to clear or cloud the picture!
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Dow Industrials 1929 analog -- day 1 of rally
10/30/1929 = 12.34% .... 3/24/2020 = 11.36% ....
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VIX Cycle & Seasonality, CCMP Resistance -- pondering a "mosaic" of factors.
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World Equity Index (MXWD Msci World Index.)
Worth a mention?
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$DXY -- Keeping an eye on the DXY .... (intersection of parallel channels.)
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$SPX - BY popular demand, an update of overlay with October 2007.
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$DXY $dollarindex -- Corrected .. 39-month trough cycle.
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$VIX - Cycle update -- anticipated peak 2/4. Best fit cycle 15/18 trades.
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Commodities relative to Equities long-term cycle TROUGH 15.5 year cycle.
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$VIX -- 50 day (trough) cycle and base of 18-month parallel channel.
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Gold vs. Silver Ratio --- Silver to Outperform?
** Rejected Upper Boundary of Parallel Channel **
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$SPX --- Does anyone else see a close resemblance in terms of key elements between now and 2/20/20?
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#VIX
-- As we've been watching and Tweeting the 50-day cycle actively, it would be intellectually dishonest to ignore that the cycle is being challenged. The last time implied volatility "blew" through the cycle by so many days is highlighted.
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US Dollar Index -- Potentially "In" Super-Cycle Decline ?
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Dollar Index Updated Overlay -- Example... would you "tip" for this?
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Growth / Value (Russell 1000 Growth / Russell 1000 Value) ... Note Neckline.
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Dow Industrials 1929 analog -- day 2 of rally
Day 1 = 10/30/1929 = 12.34% .... 3/24/2020 = 11.36%
Day 2 = 10/31/1929 = 5.82% .... 3/25/2020 = 2.39%
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Defensives vs. Cyclicals (Total Return) ... we continue to monitor this closely (possible long-term inflection point at lower boundary of ~ 30-year parallel channel.)
Tip if you find this informative / useful.
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Dow Industrials -- analog to 1929 -- updated 3.31.20.
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#bitcoin
#cryptocurrency
$XBT --- Bitcoin subjective and objective pattern recognition, worth keeping an eye on.
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#VIX
Implied vol. could still remain muted until 6/9 based off of adherence to 50 day cycle.
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$TLT -- From maximum comfort to maximum pain -- TLT history of "overshoots" ??????
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Defensive Sectors (TR) VS. Cyclical Sectors (TR) - long-term cycle.
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Friday Fun With Analogs - Detailed 2-year SP500 Analogs.
** Analogs are just a very small part of our process - so please consider with the appropriate weighting**
Not Investment Advice
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SPX -- Closely monitoring price action around the upper boundary of a 13-year parallel channel.
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