Sergey Utkin
@usv1980
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international relations/foreign policy/Euro-Atlantic/Russia/integration/research #NoWar
Joined February 2011
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My country is committing a horrible crime in Ukraine that can have no justification. Official references to Art.51/defence of the Donbass are ridiculous, whataboutism is not helpful. We all bear a part of responsibility. There is no good way out of that.
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Some in Russia say "we cannot wish defeat to our troops". But what would be a defeat for our country? Decades of international isolation in an attempt to keep repressive control over Ukraine, Belarus etc.? Or a fast acknowledgement that this war is craziness that has to stop?
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There's a bitter irony in the way many people in Russia assessed Putin's performance - "we may disagree with this and that, but at least he stabilised the economy, ensured a certain level of prosperity". Since Thursday all of this is gambled on Ukraine, doomed to end in a loss.
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Except that physical currency cannot be bought, banking cards don't work abroad and cross-border transfers are strictly limited. It's more like the Soviet ruble/USD rate - strong ruble unless you really have to exchange it, which you can't.
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A leaked report by Sergey Karaganov (co-authored by Aleksandr Kramarenko, Fyodor Lukyanov and Dmitry Trenin) (h/t
@KassenovaNargis
, link below) is the quintessence of Karaganov's school of foreign policy. A lot of acid stuff, but in the end of the day it's all about love. 1/7
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Even if (unlikely) this war ends in a matter of weeks with some sort of agreement, foreign business and investors that is now leaving Russia probably won't return under this president, because if he ordered this, he can order anything.
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I did not believe the warning signs because I thought the evident multiple disastrous consequences for Russia could not be ignored/deliberately chosen. I was wrong.
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Two ageing/shrinking societies of Ukraine and Russia are losing young people dead and wounded, some refugees/emigres might never return, the birth rates will go down against the backdrop of (justified) uncertainty about the future. And Putin used to care about demographics...
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While Karaganov's report reveals the anatomy of disastrous policies, this and similar papers are, of course, a reflection and a helping hand rather than the reason for what we are passing through. They reflect and amplify what they believe is on the mind of THE decision-maker.7/7
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The report suggests military action in Ukraine had to be started much earlier, Ukraine's south and east are to be annexed and brainwashed, and the west of the country is to be bombed into an agrarian periphery (echoing notorious Morgenthau Plan for post-war Germany). 4/7
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The report suggests Russia shall leave the OSCE, focus on "world majority" organisations instead, drop the "pacta sunt servanda" principle (already accomplished, isn't it?), arms control and non-proliferation are all outdated policies. 2/7
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It looks like the report's co-authors (some of them often seen as more moderate than K.) signed up to Karaganov's well-known idea of preventive nuclear strikes against Poland. And their hope for Ukraine is that it will be no more... 5/7
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While a couple of millions are to be resettled from Ukraine to Siberia (helping to move away from "West-centrism" and useful since "the West will remain adversarial for a long time") 6/7
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The governing board of the major (and only) liberal radio station
@EchoMskNews
took decision to liquidate the station and its astonishingly rich web-site. Hopefully someone archives it, will be very valuable in the future. This war is changing Russia in a very bad way.
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Russia withdraws registration for Russian branches of Carnegie Center, all German political foundations, Amnesty Int. and more. Through decades these organisations made a significant contribution to international cooperation involving Russia. O tempora...
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The report attacks the idea of strategic parity, which is the core of what Aleksey Arbatov is writing on nuclear issues, and criticises the view that any use of nuclear weapons would "inevitably lead" to a global nuclear war. 3/7
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Russia's Dmitry Kozak confirms - through the 9 hours of talks parties tried to agree a common statement but failed. France & Germany had common interpretation how to progress but Ukraine, in Kozak's words, refused to even quote Minsk agreements on necessary dialogue with Donbass.
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Dmitry Kozak says the Normandy meeting in Paris has re-confirmed ceasefire, and decided to meet again in Berlin in two weeks and resolve issues related to different interpretations of the Minsk agreements.
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Написал для
@kommersant
о происходящем. При редактуре некоторые моменты смягчили, ну да ладно. Нет войне.
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All of them no revolutionaries were among signatories of sober NATO-Russia risk reduction proposals a few days before the horror started
Putin exluded four experts from the Science Council of the Russian Security Council:
— Alexey Gromyko
— Alexander Nikitin
— Alexander Panov
— Sergey Rogov
Source
Membership
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Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences issued a statement on Ukraine. While respecting all the thick red lines drawn by the Russian state, they appeal to ceasefire and peaceful settlement. Much different from the earlier letter of university rectors.
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After the Normandy Four political advisors' talks in Berlin Ukraine's Andrii Yermak says the meeting haven't reached agreement on any common statement but everyone is willing to continue Normandy talks and restore the Trilateral Contact Group activities.
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@SamRamani2
C'mon, it never says "in exchange" - it's rather like mirroring the Russian drafts - "you were asking for more than what's possible, we'll do too"
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This will deprive Russian citizens of a possibility to appeal to the European Court of Human Rights and lift the barriers for restoration of capital punishment in Russia. Deplorable but feels like collateral damage against the backdrop of the disastrous war in Ukraine.
🇷🇺 Russia's membership in the Council of Europe has been suspended by the CoE Committee of Ministers with 42 out of 47 countries in favour of a joint Polish-Ukrainian notion to suspend Russia over attack on Ukraine. ht
@rumeliobserver
cc:
@rafalsokol
@ProfPech
@MollyQuell
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While Russia is trying to cancel Ukraine...
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Russia's Ministry of Enlightenment (no joke) is going to tell kids "why the liberation mission in Ukraine is a necessity, what danger NATO is posing for Russia, and why Russia took the path of defending peaceful population of DNR and LNR".Also in the pack: telling lie from truth.
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New restrictions of the Russian Central Bank suggest that in the course of the next 6 months people, who have bank accounts in dollars/euros/etc., will be able to withdraw no more than 10 000 USD in USD (even if the account was in euros etc.), the rest - only in rubles.
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The previous time Russia suggested legally binding security guarantees in Europe was Medvedev's European Security Treaty proposal. Back then Russia's general idea was faced with Western comments that it was not clear what exactly was meant.The Russian draft was presented later 1/
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@SamRamani2
In the fall of 1993 the State Department also had four though different and with a caveat...
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At the yesterday's meeting with big business focused on sanctions impact Putin assured (!) them Russia had no intention to harm global economy as long as (!!) she is allowed to participate in it.
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Russian Minister of Defence Shoigu in a rare interview to
@mkomsomolets
explains the reform of the army and more: . A few takeaways: 1/
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I hardly thought there could be a year more terrible for European security than 2014. But here we go...
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The banks also won't be allowed to sell foreign currency. It's not clear how the currency exchange will function at all then. A definite flavour of Soviet practice. Beryozka shops all that...
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Ukraine's Andrii Yermak expects more Normandy meetings at the political advisors' level "soon" but there's neither an agreement on the summit, nor on the venue for offline TCG, which would rather continue via video-conference.
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In case you didn't like the start of 2021, you can start it anew on 13/14 January in accordance with the good old Julian calendar - the Old New Year, as we call it in Russia.
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A look by a well-connected Russian journalist into Russian elites reaction to the war (in Russian). Summary: people were not aware of this coming/not prepared/shocked but also impotent to influence the situation.
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One thing that puzzles me during latest crises like the one in Kazakhstan is how some people readily rely on info from anonymous Telegram-channels as if these were trusted or any less prone to manipulation than actual news agencies.
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Dmitry Kozak says the next meeting of the Normandy Four political advisers will be decided depending on the progress at the upcoming [virtual] meetings of the Trilateral Contact Group.
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Russia starts "limiting" access to Facebook due to alleged violations of legislation. The impact is not clear. The Facebook has limited popularity in the country but hosts major political discussions unlike more popular networks.
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Russia's former minister of foreign affairs Igor Ivanov, president of the
@Russian_Council
, writes an op-ed for
@kommersant
arguing there is a window of opportunity for negotiations on the Donbass after Ukrainian presidential elections. A thread 1/
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"“Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin),” William J. Burns, then U.S. ambassador to Russia and current CIA director, cabled from Moscow in 2008."
Although President Biden has taken the use of force off the table in Ukraine, some argue that failing to combat Russian aggression may embolden China to invade Taiwan. It's not so,
@shifrinson
and I argue in
@washingtonpost
— and maybe just the opposite.
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Russia is planning to introduce e-visa scheme for visitors, including EU citizens, by 2021. Head of the federal tourism agency claims Russian visa regime will become the most liberal among developed nations.
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40 percent of staff (6-7 thousand people) at Moscow Sheremetyevo Airport will be idle "because of the EU/U.S. sanctions". Ukraine is not mentioned once in the Russian mainstream newspaper article, indeed why would it?
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At the Riga Conference Italian ambassador to Latvia basically suggests it would be good if Sweden joined NATO given the importance of nuclear deterrence and developments in the Arctic. So much for the perceived "doves" in the Alliance.
#RigaConf19
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War veterans told Putin he would better remain president indefinitely. Putin replied it would be very dangerous to get back to the mid-80s USSR, where leaders were dying in office instead of creating conditions for a transformation of power.
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@BBCRosAtkins
@bbclysedoucet
The bell-tower of St.Sophia cathedral built upon order of Hetman Ivan Mazepa in 1699-1706 in "cossack baroque" style, improved/built-up through 18-19th centuries. UNESCO World Heritage. Here's how it looked in the first half of the 19th century.
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Russian Centre for Current Policy, headed by Alexey Chesnakov, a long time colleague of Putin's aide Vladislav Surkov, still seen as Surkov's expert backing, publishes a short analysis on Ukraine conflict after the presidential elections: Thread 1/
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@OlyaOliker
We are beyond the rational cost-benefit assessment on that, alas. Rational would have been not to start the madness in the first place. Now since unprecedented costs are already there, the benefits too are supposed to be transcendent.
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Lawyers clarify that Russians will be able to appeal to the European Court of Human Rights for half-a-year after Russia's exit from the CoE. Suspension per se doesn't limit this right but might trigger Russia's own decision to leave - a dream of many conservatives.
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How did we even manage without the "rules-based order" phrase for so long? Used to need vagueness less? Graph source:
@LowyInstitute
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Dmitry Kozak says the next Normandy summit would only make sense when all details of the Donbass status within "post-conflict Ukraine" are clarified by political advisers. The summit would then have to decide on the municipal elections in the Donbass.
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Today marks 15 years of Sergey Lavrov as the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.
9 марта 2004 года Сергей Викторович #Лавров был назначен на должность Министра иностранных дел России Президентом России Владимиром Владимировичем Путиным - 1⃣5⃣ лет на страже интересов Отечества на международной арене в качестве главы
@MID_RF
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A good and sad thread on how this horror gets rationalised in the Russian mainstream experts' community:
How does Russia foreign policy expert discourse evolve a month into this war?
"After this war is over it will lead to a more stable security system based on mutual animosity.
Now they fear us - it is as good as respect"
Thread 1/10
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Dmitry Kozak argues the NATO-Russia tensions are separate from the Donbass/Minsk but links them to NATO/U.S. military activity in Ukraine - if de-escalation is to be achieved, this has to cease.
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Trump's message seems to be: The U.S. doesn't need oil from Middle East, if Europe does, let them deal with the Gulf security.
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@guyverhofstadt
I thought liberals stand for free speech rather than having misleading messages boldly deleted by regulators.
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The EU suspends cross-border cooperation with Russia and Belarus, which mattered for people in border regions and was one of those few areas of mutually-funded constructive interaction that survived all the previous low points in EU-Russia relations.
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@BBCSteveR
It's hard to argue historical memories play no role on Polish and Lithuanian side.
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@jenssiegert
@KassenovaNargis
It actually feels very authentic, style including. The authors page has an asterix saying only the editor-in-chief (i.e. Karaganov) is responsible for the final product. And then, it was not supposed to be public. But still...
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If the Nord Stream 2 is completed, which is very probable, the effect of the U.S. sanctions will be (further) spoiled relations with Russia & Germany, and more intra-EU disagreements on Russia policy. But what if (highly unlikely) the sanctions succeed? 1/
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Here we go. First Deputy Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Russian Duma celebrates the perspective of Russia leaving the "russophobic" Council of Europe, and (ironically?) calls this one of the goals of the operation in Ukraine.
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Putin is sending an unusual open proposal on cyber security to the U.S., which includes possible "guarantees of non-intervention into internal affairs of each other, including into electoral processes"
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So, the NATO-Russia Council, joint exercises and all the fuss about cooperation was a mere containment strategy?
@JRCookson
We’ve been trying to contain Russia in Eastern Europe for the last two decades. That remains a major U.S. and NATO aim. We also have to contain Moscow’s cyber aggression. Both are important. No reset with Russia.
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The
@theELN
asked me to explain Russian debate on Europe. The topic is centuries-old but there's always some new colours added. I tried to explain both continuity and change.
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The most constructive way to deal with mutual security concerns in Europe this time would be to make use of the Finnish idea of the Helsinki 2025 OSCE summit to mark 50 years of the CSCE process. 6/
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I disagree with the starting point. 1989 was not that traumatic for the USSR, as it was for Putin serving in GDR. In Moscow most people saw it as an arrival of latecomers - conservative communist regimes of CEE taking the way of Perestroika. Humiliation came later: 1991 onwards.
“It’s easier to knock down an Iron Curtain than build trust between Russia & the West”: our
#BBCNewsTen
report with stunning Kremlin, abandoned bases, NATO cyber troops, Crimea torpedoes…& a question to Putin. Producer
@BBCWillVernon
Shot/edited
@mattgodtv
@bbcnews
@bbcworld
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Trivia: Putin's longtime press-secretary Dmitry Peskov was sitting right behind President Yeltsin at the
@OSCE
Istanbul summit in November 1999, as his interpreter while working at the Russian Embassy in Turkey.
Kremlin spox Peskov on Russia-US talks and if they should even be continued: "This will be complemented literally within the next few days, after which it could be understood somehow where to move further and how, and whether it makes sense at all."
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Alaska talks[simplified]: U.S. to China - What happens in and around China violates rules-based order, we are ready to discuss with you how to advance U.S. interests; China to the U.S.: we mind our business, go mind yours. We're not the ones starting wars.
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'
@euronews
TV channel and web-site get blocked in Russia. By now they indeed looked like a strange exception at the cleansed media-landscape. Once upon a time (2001) the coming of
@euronewsru
in Russian was seen as a sign of progress and access to the global debate...
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There's a prophetic Vysotsky song that comes to my mind with the Echo Moskvy liquidation. This war must stop.
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S7 Airlines cancels all flights to Europe from Russia till 13 March "due to the closure of the airspace by European states"
⚡️ Из-за закрытия воздушного пространства европейскими государствами S7 приняла решение отменить все рейсы в Европу с 26 февраля по 13 марта
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Dmitry Kozak is sceptical with regard to ideas of multilateral ceasefire control on the contact line in the Donbass, he believes the simpler it is, the better - a working hot line between Kyiv and Donbass is enough, as periods of actual recent ceasefire have shown.
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No, thank you. Russia had enough of these games, do your frontlines elsewhere.
I heard the argument recently that Europe should seek an alliance with Russia because when the inevitable war between China and the West comes, that would mean the frontline would be the Amur rather than eastern Europe...
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Saddened to learn
@SlawomirDebski
got in trouble in Moscow. Experts communication must be maintained, especially at the time of strong disagreements. Hopefully the case will be clarified.
The Director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs, Sławomir Dębski, has been detained at the Domodedovo Airport in Moscow and denied entry to Russia. Polish consular services are at the site.
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@BrunoTertrais
"the West needs to calm down and take Russia for what it is: a major outside player that is neither an eternal foe nor an automatic friend." (
@DmitriTrenin
2006)
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@ABarbashin
That was in 1992 new-born Russia hoping that a rapid economic and political transformation + natural resources would make it easy to re-assemble the post-Soviet space. 1993-96 showed how troubled the way actually was. Imperial enthusiasts remained, of course, but looked marginal.
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What people remember is the dance, what people forget/ignore is
@Karin_Kneissl
's many years of expertise in international relations, energy politics and Middle East (including language skills) - a passing combination for an energy company.
#Russia
's government has nominated Austrian former Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl for a seat on Rosneft's board, according to the order. While foreign minister, Kneissl hosted Vladimir Putin at her 2018 wedding, dancing with Russian president at the ceremony.
More
@TheTerminal
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Some critical comments on
@JosepBorrellF
visit to Moscow make it look like the main job of a diplomat is to look bold and brave at a press conference. If it were all about public appearance, it could have easily be done by zoom or an exchange of pre-recorded videos. 1/4
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Berlin's recently closed airport Tegel is now turned into a centre for refugees from Ukraine
Ein starkes Team: das Land
#Berlin
& ein Bündnis von Hilfsorganisationen haben in kurzes Zeit den ehemaligen Flughafen Tegel zum
#Ukraine
Ankunftszentrum TXL für Geflüchtete umgewandelt.
Heute Eröffnung mit Presse.
Respekt & Danke allen Beteiligten!
#berlinhilftukraine
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@leonidragozin
@russianforces
And the finale "“If you invite a bear to dance, it’s not you who decides when the dance is over,” the Russian proverb goes. “It’s the bear.”" deserves a fact check with Russian folklore experts - I don't think they'd find anything like that in Russian.
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Even the German edition of the brave new historical discourse for 1989/90 does not find a word for Gorbachev or the Soviet Union. Literally, any word:
Ambassador Lucas addressed guests at our reception at the occasion of the 29th anniversary of German unity and the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin. These are the key lines:
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Russia suspends elements of the 2006 EU-RU visa-facilitation agreement (one of the last legally-binding achievements in what used to be EU-RU cooperation) and elements of similar agreements with some European states. Primarily officials and journalists will have it more difficult
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@StLiechtenstein
@MKarnitschnig
@sebastiankurz
I thought the Czechs and Slovaks did it already. Or you don't count them as western?
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@vtchakarova
C'mon, this is part of the "return to 1997" demand from the Russian drafts and, of course, has nothing to do with Biden's press conferences.
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Hopes cannot be high but alternatives are worse. Neither Russia, nor NATO would lose anything if a specially tailored round of talks starts with political mandate coming directly from decision-makers. This would also be a test for their ability & will to agree on anything. 8/End
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Putin proposed Mikhail Mishustin, head of Federal Taxation Service for Prime Minister. A technical rather than political nomination.
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A lot of speculation is thrown around about UN
@UNHumanRights
estimate of casualties in the Donbass, though the details are easily accessible. More than half of last 2 years civil. deaths caused by mines. There was a way to de-escalate further, not taken.
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